The Australian Domestic Market 2011
 

2011 is shaping up to be somewhat interesting year for the Australian Domestic Market? Here are some of my thoughts!

[*]Virgin- With the new CEO at the helm we shall be seeing quite a few changes with the 'Virgin" Brand as we know it. Basically we can say "Out with the old, In with the New". With the new A330's coming on line for the West / East coast runs enabling Virgin to snare bigger chunk of the Business market. With the recent gains of the AFL contract and more its definate that Virgin are serious.
The EMB-170's are out, a very wise choice in anyone's eyes. High DOC's compared to Turboprop aircraft they were a very bad choice [Similar to Kendall's venture into CRJ-200's]
Will we be seeing an order of ATR42/72 aircraft this year?

[*]Qantas- We have probably seen the 'New' Business class seats on board the A330, this comes straight to my mind...

What the heck were they thinking?

When those aircraft deploy on the West/East coast runs, watch the Business punters flock to Virgin Business class product. Although we havn't seen what Virgin has to offer, it has to be better than cloth 3 - Abreast seating!
The move by Qantas to purchase of Network Aviation is interesting. There are plenty of 'rumours' floating around of what Qantas has to gain for this purchase mainly from increased FIFO revenue. The Fokker F100 are excellent examples of aircraft, cheap and have one of the lowest DOC's in the market the FK100's operate with.I guess we will have to see what happens in this market?
One thing that stands out is now Qantas has access to a Perth Hanger which we will more likely see the 737's stay in Perth for its A - Checks, avoiding costly flights / schedule to the East Coast.
What does Qantas have in store for us this year?

[*]Skywest- Finally the A320 has arrived! WA's True regional airline... With the WA Governments near completion of dividing up WA market routes, Skywest looks likely to snare a majority share of these routes.
Could we see another A320 coming in shortly and see them operating more RPT services interstate and abroad?[/LIST][*]Strategic- I wonder what goodies they have in the bag for us this year? Could thinking out of the box routes be Strategic's gain??? From all accounts their PER - DPS routes are actually doing quite well up against the cheaper options and lower operating cost International Airlines.

[*]REX- Australia's largest regional airline. Operating probably the worlds largest fleet of Saab 340B aircraft where will be seeing them operate this year?


I am interested to hearing everyone's thoughts of what they expect / or think
of what the carries will do this year. I know I've missed a few, so anyone can stump up!

Qantas Will finally "lose it" with Boeing over the 787 and tell them to jam it. Will purchase several F100's for growth of Network. Will inject more money into Jetstar and grow Jetstar aggressively. Question is - will the big Q buy Alliance and finish off their FIFO plans?

Jetstar Will push ahead with "Pan Asian" strategy. Singapore and NZ operations will run well. Cadets will become a bigger and bigger part of the resource process eventually phasing out other sources apart from DE Captains within 5 years.

Virgin Will announce its new branding. Will announce an Asian partner (this will be the big news of the year). At the end of the year will announce a turbo prop to replace the Embraers and finally compete with Qlink.

Tiger Will start a Gold Coast base and annoy the living crap out of Jetstar in doing do. Will get their EBA thru. Will end up with an Australian partner...:E

Not sure what the GA charter companies will do. Probably more GA charters..

Okay, Hope I'm wrong about some of this...

Qantas: Will continue to shrink with the rise of Jetstar. :confused:

Jetstar: Will continue to expand at the expense of Qantas. HOWEVER... The Senate enquiry may force a re-think of their employment practices. We can only hope! :mad:

Virgin: Will ponder the diversity of their fleet, the areas that are losing money, and finally bite the bullet. Those pilots not on an EBA may find themselves at the Governer's pleasure.:ooh:

Tiger: Unless they follow through with their original planned fleet size (30 aircraft) they are gone. I mean honestly how long can you justify the losses, and make no mistake, they cannot grow to profitability with just 10 aircraft! :rolleyes:

Qlink: More Q400's. Hardly a state secret though. And no, progression will not be offered to domestic. :{

REX: Absolutely no change whatsoever! Although there may be some schedule reduction, depending on the amount of blood loss to the Majors. Feburary 2011 will not be a pretty time for REX Crewing and Customer Service staff. :(

2011 does remind me of the Confucian curse: "May you live in interesting times."

QANTAS - I have thought ever since they announced Jetstar that the plan was to shrink QANTAS mainline back to the J curve plus Perth. In other words, where ever there is a substantial business market. Running full-service flights to holiday destinations packed with people who want the cheapest flight does not work in todays environment. Leave the bogans to others.

Jetstar - is the stalking horse of Australian aviation. It is the test bed to see just how far pilots, government and the community will tolerate lower terms and conditions before someone bites. While it can continue to offer cheap fares no-one but the aviation community will give a damn. However, watch the hypocrites crawl out from under their rocks come the bent airframe.

Virgin - for me is the interesting one. Its survival was being questioned not so long ago and now with Borghetti at the helm some tough decisions will have to be made. It has been pushed closer to the QANTAS full-service model but I doubt that it can afford to go all the way down that path which is extremely risky without very deep pockets. However, it wants the cream of full-fare pax and especially the business class traveller. It is now complicating its fleet structure by introducing the A330 on top of the E-jets with commensurate increase in costs, so why keep further complicating that by introducing yet another type which would not have the "jet" advantage in selling seats to the punters. If they are going to keep the E190 then why not expand that fleet?

Skywest - I don't know enough about the west coast market but if QANTAS is going to get fully involved in the FIFO market then look to a charnel house come negotiation time for the contracts.

Rex - with its all-caring attitude to its staff may yet find life extremely tough in the coming year when nearly all of its senior drivers suddenly find a sunnier future somewhere, anywhere else.

QANTAS - It's average OTP for the year for a 12 monthly cycle perhaps around 85%. No doubt their OTP could suffer a further drop if any more Rolls shat themselves which is likely from recent happennings.

Jetstar - About the usual. Standard and expected delays coutesy of the usual issues such as crew late to the aircraft due to sleeping in, fog in Newcastle, fog in Avalon, and 50 wheelchairs required each flight. 72%

Virgin - Possibly a respectful improvement if they attract passengers early to the boarding gate by offering funky ergonomic boarding gate chairs and some wacky paint schemes. 81%

Tiger - Oh dear. 51%.

My Predictions for 2011

Qantas - Decides to split the brand again. Pays millions of dollars to come up with the name Trans Australia Airlines for the domestic operation. International ops are nationalised and the brand becomes known for safety quality and innovation (hang the cost).

Jetstar - Spins off a low cost subsidiary, calls it "Impulse". Buys a fleet of cheap B1900's and ships newspapers around the country with them.

Virgin - The carcass of Jetstar is merged with Virgin. Pays a few million more to brand consultants and comes up with the name "Ansett". Air New Zealand and Newscorp buy a strategic stake (Rupert smiles slyly).

Tiger - Brian Grey becomes CEO. Brand consultants decide "Compass" is the best name and remarkets the airline (for a few weeks anyway).

REX - Changes name to Hazelton and provide a profitable niche regional market until bought out by some big idiot who stuffs the lot. Counts on a pilot cadetship to pull it through the tough times.

Me - My speculative shares pay big dividends and I finally retire ( for the 3rd time and finally by choice) a wealthy sod. Buy a farm with lots of water rights and sell them to the government (during a drought). Sell the land for a freeway bypass and move to the far south west coast of Tasmania. Global warming makes the area a tropical paradise and I grow bananas as a hobby (might even build a big one as a tourist attraction).

Crystal Ball
 

Some excellent speculation and exciting possibilities posted. But I would like to know the answer to some of the following questions if somebody has a crystal ball handy for 2011 ???

1) Will Strong James continue to wear bowties to Qantas board meetings ?

2) Will Smiths Dick return as Director of Aviation Safety, CASA ?

3) Where will Trevor Jensen pop up next ?

4) Will Anthony Albanese wear lenses or contacts in the new year ?

5) Will Darth return to Qantas and perform one more public display of erotic affection with Margy for old times sake ?

6) Will GA become a focus of government strategy due to the government realising GA's absolute relevance to a multitude of Australian businesses ?

7) Will there be a 'White Paper Part 2' which will contain lots of irrelevant data, nil defined commitment to anything and be filled with words such as - 'robust, transparency, worlds best practise, cohesive, enhanced, empower, innovate, promulgate and strategic framework ?

Virgin and Skywest will tie up and Skywest will be virgins turboprop arm.

10000Ft says Nice dream but that wont happen. VB want to expand there own base in PH and get more FlyInFlyOut stuff on their own. Expect to see 73s based in Perth this year.

Virgin would be mad to get into the regional turboprop market, for all the reasons discussed on this forum about a year ago.

About the only way they could achieve regional dominance is to effectively decimate the opposition, and that won't happen unless of course they do something really wild, like stand outside the REX carpark and sign up all the experienced crew on 20% increase in salary and eventual progression to jet jobs! :}

Ooooo! :ooh:

Dont think you can talk your way into a pay rise that easily. Your going to have to do the hard yards yourself, sorry, but true.:cool:

Just stirring the pot Arnie'.

Truth be known of course, no airline manager worth his/her salt would ever offer a rise in salary to attract crews to a new operation, let alone progression. In fact the opposite is true. ie: E-jet - 20% drop in salary, 777 - Further 20%, NZ and Sing positions on A320/30 for less money than many turbo-prop captains. etc, etc, Bawahaha! :}

My point is, the Only way for Virgin to compete in the regional market would be to decimate it's opposition before the first shot is even fired. The only way to do that would be to bleed white the opposition's skilled workforce, and the only way to do that would be to offer a deal in excess to what would amount to a "sideways step". That of course would go against the very nature of airline management (they are only interested in driving conditions down), and like you, I am well aware of that being something that will never happen.

As for "hard yards". I'm sure we could compare notes on that subject!

Virgin will be operating turboprops within the 2011/ 2012 timeframe but REX will not be operating them. The owners of REX have told Virgin the only way they will operate turboprops for them is if Virgin buys them out. Virgin have told them thanks but no thanks and are now looking at other options.

Ok F111,

Do you know how many Turbo-props Virgin intend on operating?

I've heard 15-20, but that could change if the 190's leave the fleet in a few years time.

Very interesting.

Now this has been done before, but my prediction for Virgin Turbo-props in 2011-12.

If it does happen, I hope Virgin have a rabbit to pull out of the hat, either that or virgin management are even more inept than I first feared. Frankly I don't think even they would be that naive or reckless. Why?

I'm assuming 15-20 aircraft would be to compete with REX and QLink on the East Coast and possibly SA. REX have 45 aircraft opperating on approx 90% monopoly routes. Qlink a similar number. Dubbo, Albury Balina, Wagga Wagga, Ad-PLQ, and Mildura are the only routes with competition. These prime routes are fully serviced by REX and/or QLink (except Ballina), and like most regional services the profit margins are fairly tight.

REX have arguably the lowest Debt/Equity ratio of not only any airline in Australia, but most other businesses as well! With almost total ownership of assets (aircraft included), REX posted a profit of around $24Mil last financial year. It is a very tight financial organisation.

Now, how much to set up a regional Turbo-prop organisation from scratch? What would be the cost of say 15-20 ATR72/42's? $200-$300 Mil? and that's with less than half the fleet size of just one of the competitors. Then there's training, Engineering, port infrastructure, additional terminal space at the capitals, not to mention the need for approx 200-250 pilots and flight attendants. How much will the initial set-up cost? What will the returns be?

Mind you VA has consumed around $250Mil of Virgin's cash reserves for nil profit, so maybe they're on to something!

I'm not sure why this rumour persists, but if what you say is true F111, I for one would like to know the rationale. If you are in the know, please share with the forum. Serious question, maybe I'm missing something, because IMHO such a move would be disasterous for all concerned!

Qantas - All future 738 will be owned/crewed by Jetconnect, to allow them to operate domestic flights with cheaper crew and using the 1:50 ratio for crewing.

Jetstar - Will continue to outsourcing crew, to the point of using off shore bassed crew for domestic services.

Virgin - Will operate the first half of the year under the Tasman alliance, doing everything to the book. Allow them to megre the full airline with NZ & becomes Ansett2

QANTAS - mainline pilots will unite and stand against the rubbish. The 787 will be secured in the LH EA. More promotional opportunities for crew with the new arrival of 380's, 330's and 73's, as well as the handing back of the 330's given to J* (because now QF will pay for JQ 787's instead....:ugh:) Increase in the premium market. AJ's contract not renewed.

Jetstar - senate inquiry will mandate a minimum 1500 hrs for FO's. Cadet program blown out of the water. Forced to recruit through the usual channels. Moderate expansion in Asia, nothing much doing in Aus. 330's will be crewed by overseas pilots, but when the EBA is up (not sure when) J* guys and girls will tire of the bull**** and make a stand. Finally realising that being undercut by the next lowest bidder is bloody frustrating........

Jetconnect - FWA will rule that Jitconnict crew to be paid the same as mainline crew, or they have to stop wearing the uniforms, calling themselves the spirit of Australia and screening the JT safety demo which says there are QANTAS pilots up the front. A reduction in flying as the Tasman flights are slowly recrewed by mainline

Virgin - will keep plodding along, being cast aside by QF and J*. Will sneak under the radar, and before you know it, wil be a fully competitve outfit, turning a profit, with engaged staff, solid management and open communication

Rex - starts bleeding pilots again due to the scrapping of Jetstars cadetship. Rex will be allowed to keep operating their's though.

QLink - Same same......

GA - spurred on by the scrapping of the J* cadetship, the lack of a QF cadetship, newbies will be forced to go through the industry via GA again. More pilots competing for the first job. Probably less people learning though.

I thought it was time for a more positive (i guess depending on where you sit...) response

pprune or ppdreamne????
:O

Re: DJ A330's

Not yet, but it's not far off till the first one arrives! :ok:

BB :cool:

Krusty, they have the cash but are they ready to part with the war chest for the sake of turboprops ? I'm not so sure. It is a big gamble. If China's economy takes a dive then in 18 -24 months time there may be no need for these aircraft on the west coast. Redeployment to the east coast to service FIFO due to LNG projects is possible, but it is a huge risk right now. If they want to borrow the cash from somewhere who is going to support such a huge risk and back them during a time when the economy IS NOT even on the road to recovery ?
Anything is possible when you look at the past decade in AUS, but I don't think DJ is going to purchase and set up a bugsmasher operation in the near future.
Mind you, Clive Palmer could probably back them financially and in return ask for a percentage of the profits and become a part-time board member. If the whole thing went tits up at least Clive would only have a small dent in his wallet as he could afford the loss. However Il Deuce would have some explaining to do.....

I agree gobbledock. I just can't see the logic. I mean the margins are thin. I would think Virgin would be looking to decrease the complexities of the fleet, not increase it?

Mind you nothing would surprise me after the last 10 years we've been through.

Interesting thread, and some interesting points, my view?

QANTAS: International will continue to flounder with the influx of ME airlines and cheap low cost international airlines. The international arm of the airline is becoming stale, basically through the inept management style in place. Domestic? Game on with VB, although the dispatch rate of the 767 and 734 (which will start to be withdrawn) will become a problem and an advantage for VB. Huge loss of buisness patronage? Not yet, just a gradual decrease of market share, but eventually a large share will go to VB. Eventually be enough for the board to start asking questions in regard to the companies present directions. Might see a lot of money being thrown QANTAS domestics way towards the end of the year, but unfortunately a bit late.

Virgin Blue: Exciting year. New look, engaged staff. No regional turboprop just yet, too much on their plate this year, and although they have a big war chest, JB won't risk it all at once. Main thing VB need to do is distance themselves from the bearded one, he will do more damage than good in attracting the buisness clients. JB management style and knowledge of the industry will make it a good year for VB.

Jetstar: Industrial problems and a media nightmare. More rapid expansion for dubious gain in a declining lesuire market will put a huge drain on QANTAS in a time when they are being attacked on both high and low yeild market. With little employee loyalty manpower will become a problem, and this will lead to moe operational problems. European flying will begin but will become a huge problem with Asian full service carriers providing better value at the same price. All in all a huge headache for the Qantas group.

Tiger: A hard one! With a leisure market under strain and a huge excess of seats in Australia, this could be a hard year for Tiger.

Qlink: same as usual, with limited expansion in WA

REX: New type announced, same as Qlink, quiet year of consolidation.

The rest? It all depends on the economy.......could be a year of hurt for some smaller Airlines.

I think a really interesting year!

Great thread. Great to play crystal ball and maybe revisit it in a years time. I sometimes go back and have a read of the GFC threads (sad I know).

There will be no need for them to offer much at all KRUSTY. Young mates who have changed sides would be quickly giving their mates the update on what the company is like to work for. What the sims are like, what the culture is like. And on this, REX hasn't a hope in hell. Money is one thing, culture is another and its is 10 times more powerful. The whole Virgin fleet will merge under one brand and I suspect young up and commers will see the opportunity to get a foot in the door with the potential to fly a 777, 330, 737 or Ejet one day down the track. Lots of choice for lifestyle/stages. The rostering is also a strong point that others don't have. Much like QF you cannot beat a major for choice and options.

They're already tied up and directing people off F50's directly onto 73's to the east coast. I can't see REX or XR becoming the turbo prop arm. They'll buy new aircraft and start from scratch. One thing is for sure. If the regionals have trouble finding pilots now wait till VB get a turbo prop. The big factor of course will be not if they do it but how they do it. If they do it ala Qlink which is separate recruitment for QF then it probably wont attract as many. If they do it under one banner with progression onto different types this could attract many applicants. Who knows even a cadetship onto the turboprop arm?

There is a theme amongst some that VB in particular should stay with just a 73 and that getting other types weakens their position. This is a pretty bizarre idea. Do they let Qlink and J* 330's have cash cows to themselves? Sure the Ejets and a 777 with Cessna 210 size cargo doors wasn't the smartest of ideas. Neither was that stupid QF copy paint scheme. (rumoured to be the scheme of choice for the group)

Choosing the correct aircraft for the route is probably the way to go. The Ejet wasn't the right type but an ATR might be. Perhaps the turboprops wont happen in 11 but maybe in 12? The question you have to ask is this:

If JB could snap his fingers and replace all Ejets with a fleet of ATRs would he? I suspect he would.

I'm sure REX is very profitable and so is Qlink and this is why ATRs might just turn up in V colours one day.

Of course it could all change depending on what the VB EBA reveals. It could go back to 30 emirates interviews/departures a month or it could be THE job to have in Australian aviation. Time will tell.

All,

I injected a dose or reality with a few comments concerning DJ and turboprops. See the thread entitled New SE Aust Airline starting on page 5 of GA and Questions for any one interested.

The Oracle

Gidday ORACLE et'al.

I must admit when I first noticed the thread on New SE Aust Airline my eyes glazed over, mainly because it was done to death about a year ago, and lets face it, we all know the situation here, or more to the point we all should.

I've revisited the thread and as usual your in depth analysis and years of practicle knowledge in this area do the subject much more justice than I could ever do. I tried to extract some sort of usefull debate from F111 a few posts ago, but honestly if what you had to say to him in December didn't sink in, I don't know what would.

Don't get me wrong F111, I'm not trying to be negative, or disparage you, but you should re-read ORACLE'S post, and refer to his sage advice when Virgin's foray into regional turbo-prop operations is still-born, or heaven forbid, they actually embark upon such a folly!:{

This is of course the same oracle that argued black and blue not 2 years ago that VB was doomed and we should all get out.:confused:

I do wonder with all these Virgin expansion plans if they will not spend too much money too quickly.
There is not that much spare cash floating around in the airline industry and these things do cost a lot (V-Aus, dumping Ejets, new A330's, new business class, presumably new club lounges, new uniforms, new names, new paintjobs, new inflight service, turboprops to new markets?, alliances, expensive managers from other airlines (QF), etc the list goes on).
It takes time to produce a new product and even longer to get a return on a new product.
How much money do Virgin currently make?
How much cash do they have on reserve?

The best thing going for Virgin's future is Qantas's lack of focus on the high yielding market.
As a QF employee I wish VB the best in their premium focus as I believe it is a positive for Qantas mainline product to have a viable competitor.

Krusty etc, the big boss (JB) has told crew Virgin will be operating turboprops, with his last conversation about them taking place during early December. At one of the roadshows he was asked about Qlinks dominance of regional Australia and if he has plans to do something about it. His reply was yes he has a plan and it would be known to all sometime between 1 Jan 2011 and 31 Dec 2011.

Don't expect any announcement within the 1st quarter of this year, as the focus is getting the A330 into service, introducing the new product and uniforms.

Remember he knows how much profit Qlink adds to the Qantas bottom line and just like his plans to grab more of the business market, he knows he dosen't require 50% of the market to make money, 20 - 30% is all that's required.

REX could have been the operator, but the owners want it all their way ie a total buy out. The bearded one learnt from his last purchase of an airline, they come with to much baggage and vowed never to buy another airline. Plus the cost of purchasing another airline could be used to fund other aircraft.

Regarding finding crews and how much to pay them, if the apply the 20% number they used to come up with the Ejet pay scale then Captains would be paid around $112000 plus allowances and getting 14 - 15 days per month with progression onto a jet within 3 years, so I'm sure they will have no problem finding crews.

Markets at a guess would be;
NSW: AY, PMQ, CH( replacing ejets), DU, TW and WG
QLD: BUD, EMD, GLA and perhaps HVB
SA: PLC
VIC: MIA
TAS: DPO

Thanks for the detailed reply F111, what I was fishing for from the beginning. Going to be an interesting 12-24 months if JB goes ahead with what he has said.

As for the pay, conditions, and progression, are those numbers being bandied about at the roadshows, or is it speculation at this stage? I ask because IMHO that is pretty close to what would be required for people to jump ship in significant enough numbers.

Needless to say Virgin can try to recruit people from wherever they like, but in the upcoming battle (and it will be a battle), the abilty for all sides to maintain schedule (amongst other things) may very well be crucial to the final outcome.

We'll stay tuned.

No specifics at the roadshows the 20% is based on the Ejet crews getting that much less than the 737. Even if they offered around $100K for Captains I'm sure they would have no problems finding pilots.

Hullo Porch,

How nice that you remember my earlier comments on the future of DJ. Those comments focussed squarely on the colllective ineptitude of the previous CEO, his 'team' the original Board and how they had taken a business that had listed on the ASX at over $2.00 and creatively reduced its share value to less than 0.17 cents near the lowest point.

Notwithstanding the abilities of Mr JB and his positive impact, DJ remains a 'virtual' airline with debt well in excess of any equity and this is reflected in both DJ's dreadful share price and its current poor profitability. While the inter-line agreements with Ethhad, ANZ and Delta (if it proceeds) will certainly help to create 'mass', market conditions remain tough and it seems for DJ particularly that cash is very tight.

The Oracle

VB Turbo Props
 

All JB has to do is announce the purchase of Q400's and offer DEC to existing Eastern/Sunstate pilots and its over for Qlink. Same money but better life style would do it!

newsensation says" Yes I am sure that would make the 500 Virgin fo's very happy ....
Nice dream for the Qlink boys and girls but will never happen.

The big questions are:

Will it be separate to vb ala qlink?
Will the ATR/Q400 be in addition to the Ejet or replace them?

Turbo props were mentioned right back when he first started but as F111 says he's concentrating on the 330 first.

I think I know where your coming from Pammy'.

When/if parts of the E-jet fleet are replaced by the Q400/ATR/Bristol Box-kite or whatever, what will become of the F/O's, especially those at the bottom of the list?

I still look for Commies' under my bed at night as well. Personally I would imagine these people would progress onto the proposed expanding Virgin Jet fleet? All things being equitable. Unless of course you are suggesting that some Current Virgin Jet F/O's would have their noses out of joint because of lost command opportunities onto a Turb-prop!

All crewing issues, that will need to be sorted as just one aspect of what would be a complex and risky excercise.

Just noticed that Embraer has included the EMB-120 at the bottom of its commercial jets list on their new web site.

Is this a tempter for potential customers?

Two years ago embraer suggested they were looking at a new turboprop but hinted more at a re-engine rather than complete redesign.

Maybe there is something behind the scenes which may be announced later in the year. A modern, efficient, re-engined stretched E120 would be very competitive against the Dash and SAAB.

Being already involved with Embraer could VB be the launch customer for a new turboprop?

I don't think vb will ever buy anything from Embraer ever again.

Suspect the majority wouldn't go back to flying a turbo prop in a pink fit. I also suspect it would be much like the current system: Can get a quick command on Ejet or wait a decade or more for the 73.

If you look at QF they have very experienced FO's that sit and wait. I suppose there is no other option.

Correction Mr Hat - lastest round of 737 command slots offered to FOs with as little as 3.5 years service. :}

Interesting. I assume thats Sydney.

Do you have estimates on the other bases

I"ll start it:

Brisbane: 100 years..haven't got the key for infinite on my mac :)

Melbourne:?

Perth:?

Sydney:?

Yes it was only for Sydney, my guess is Brisbane 737 commands still require 7+ years of service and Melbourne 5+. Don't think there will be 737 commands in Brisbane for a while.