oh yes - everything is the fault of the media. what a bunch of paranoid hippies visit this site. you'll be banging on about chemtrails and faked moon landings next. :}

read the WHO release put out this morning and make up your own mind. yes, some reporting can be pretty wild and it might all come to nothing, but for the moment there is real concern about this one.

WHO | Swine influenza

Yep, your right, there's nothing better than calling up the 'experts'.

Anyone else notice how all the experts/media sound like they are in a Hollywood disaster movie...who wants to bet the two remaining Brisbane suspected cases will test negative too?

Sunfish a new, never before seen, strain of flu appears EVERY YEAR. That is what Flu does. In the last week or so a couple of 1000 people worldwide have died of normal influenza, as happens every week, year in year out...maybe 120 have died of swine flu.

How many people do you suppose died of malaria in the last 2 weeks..and the two weeks before that...and etc?

Tell us again why we should be worried?

mmm
 

Thought i was gonna get arrested last night.

Standing in line at one of those sandwich making joints, with a pi..., er, copper standing next to me.

He sneezed and i said, "I see you have the 'pig' flu".:E

Well the look i got, thought i was done for sure until the missus dragged me away with heartfelt apologies.

Wish i would think before blurting.

I can't believe you are taking yourself seriously, quoting Wikipedia.

That is the most discredited site of all sites on the web.

It is not a reliable source of information, but hey, keep reading it and post your fears here.

I am not a legend...

CC, yeah around 170 or so died in Mexico but in fact only around 8 have been positively as a result of the "Swine" flu. And why was NZ so quickly able to positively test their few cases while here in OZ the number of suspected cases climbs daily but still no positive result? (even after almost a week?)

I havent watched any telly the last couple of weeks so not sure how hysterical they are but guess the commercial networks are having a field day with this one! I heard a guy on talkback radio saying pet shops should get rid of those dried pig ears as they are dangerous to human health?! WTF? If they do get rid of them deliver all dried pig ears free of charge to my shed, I'll stockpile them and once the hysteria dies down make a killing! :E (If not I will have to re-hydrate them and use them s Berley I guess)


I understand the opinion of the WHO and they are the experts but it is the way the world is these days, everyone has to cover their ar$es! Just think of the OH&S departments, they are the authority right? Yes so we should believe them especially when they mandate on a kettle in my workplace a sign saying "Warning Hot Water may burn" (yes this is true no joke) The western worlds authorities have been corrupted by this arse covering policy and that's why I believe so many people don't trust them, I am not saying they are wrong on this one just like the boy that cried Dingo! I mean Wolf!

I went to Hong Kong in the middle of the Bird Flu Outbreak and it was the best time ever! Easy to get around, eating lot's of Chicken etc, and going to the pubs every night! And I am not saying Bird Flu was good, I knew someone that got it and they were mighty sick but at the end of the day you are as likely to get that or Swine Flu at the same chance of any new flu which for me personally is pretty rare, so chances wise I'll take the risk!

I'm sorry but channel 10 just took this cr@p to a whole new level. Sandra Sully opened the 5pm news bulletin with:

"Sydney airport has installed a new system of defence in the WAR AGAINST SWINE FLU."

Is she JOKING?! War against swine flu? What the hell is wrong with these people and where do they come up with this disgusting excuse for journalism? :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

vh-ufo, you should have asked if he wanted some "Oinkment"!



Allright...I'm going.......

There is an infinity of posts on Pprune about the inaccuracy of articles about aviation.

You should therefore assume that their articles about Flu Pandemics are similarly flawed, right?

I spent Six years working with the scientists who do this stuff.

If you ignore what is going on you are ******. Translation: This is not a drill, and it is serious.

On the positive side, I guess there will be some job openings for people who prepared to survive this pandemic. What amazes me is the attitude of those who have never even researched the subject. If you have not studied this matter, start learning right now. By the time that the average man learns, it will be too late for most of them.

Like Sunfish, I've spent time working with people who do this stuff.

For the most part, this one isn't a media beat-up. Those who run the media have been told about the importance of this story by health organisations. It helps the media that the story is sensational, and it doesn't help the rest of us that there will be dopey reporting, but one of the first steps in controlling any outbreak of disease is to make the public aware of it. This has been done very effectively.

The next step is to control its spread, and if it means closing borders, governments will do this and this will mean disruption for the airline industry.

The bad news is that the Mexican government were slow to realise the significance of this virus and worse still, this virus seems to be highly infectious.

The good news is that it is apparently - for the moment - less lethal than the recent bird flu virus. It's also more treatable because we have pharmaceuticals that weren't around during the last great H1N1 virus pandemic in 1918. And hopefully in a few months there will be a vaccine that protects us, just like vaccines were created for smallpox and poliomyelitis.

Even more good news is that governments internationally are responding quickly to contain outbreaks of the virus, using plans that have been created and exercised by medical scientists. Hopefully early action will mean that the sceptics can remain sceptical for the next time around.

And the advice that I've received from a trusted doctor? Wash you hands! More often than not respiratory viruses are passed from your hands to your nose, eyes or mouth, not directly from another infected person's breath.

Gesundheit.

Sunfish, I appreciate your comments, but must admit that after many years of seeing all sorts of bleatings by the Chicken Littles of the community, I am suspicious of public statements that resemble someone throwing their hands in the air, running in circles and screaming, "We're all gonna die!"
Obviously, by the way the WHO is treating this, it is regarded as serious. Schools are closing in the US for two weeks, but that action is seemingly causing more problems than it attempts to solve. Parents have to stay home from work to look after the kids and the kids are congregating in public places regardless. I, like many, try to look for a balanced coverage of the circumstances and seek opinions of those knowledgeable on the subject for advice. It doesn't help to be a doomsayer on the subject, assuming the worst case scenario, as many in the media attempt to highlight. It yet could be an isolated development and a mild form of influenza. It doesn't help to spread panic when, for most people, they have little control over the outcome.

If it is so infectious why do so few have it considering it has been around for about a month and those that do have it have mixed with thousands of people at airports and been in very close proximity to hundreds onboard long haul flights?

Level 5 response does not seem to tally with the rate of spread?



Mickjoebill

Give sandra a break... she's employed to 'read'. I should be so lucky!

Ask Doctor Google
 

Google say that 40% of searches involve a health question.
In the United States they have found that there is a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms.

They have mapped instances where flu related terms has been searched in mexico over the last 2 months.

Google Flu Trends | How does this work?
Google Flu Trends | Mexico

It shows a peak a few weeks ago and then a decline back to normal levels.
The peak of a few weeks ago is no more than peaks for the last 4 years and half the peak of 2003.

So the show is over?

Maybe not, in 1968 the Hong Kong flu took a year to reach the USA, where 32000 died.

There appears to be a trend in the last three Pandemics
1918 Spanish flu killed 40 million
1957 Asian flu killed 2 million
1968 Hong kong flu killed 1 million.

Mickjoebill

Lodown:

Firstly, the WHO is about a week behind the action according to the epidemiologists. This thing may last for up to Eighteen months and it is only just starting.

Secondly, the closing of schools was always known to be going to cause trouble. There are an infinity of scientific papers on the subject of that because it is one of a range of NPI's (Non pharmaceutical interventions) that are known to slow the spread of a pandemic should it occur. Public health professionals have been studying these matters for decades.

To put it another way, the closing of schools, restaurants, churches and the cancellation of public events is not a knee jerk reaction by scared politicians, it's a recommended course of action called social distancingthat has been studied and debated to death for Thirty plus years. Furthermore, it won't stop the pandemic, it will merely slow it, and yes, we know about teenagers and shopping malls, you are going to need a set of handcuffs.

Thirdly, the only "balance" applicable at the moment regards the question of the Case Fatality Rate of the first, and perhaps second and third waves of the flu. We already know that the attack rate (infectiousness) is rather high, although the reliable figures will have to wait until the epidemiologists can get enough accurate data.

Fourthly. I am not a doomsayer. The papers are filled with garbage on the subject. The reality is that you have not seen anything yet. If you go to the websites mentioned (especially Flu Wiki) you will start to learn that this event has not even properly begun. The peak of the first(and hopefully only) wave will occur in about Three months from now unless this thing fizzles out, which it currently shows no intention of doing. Please go and read about it and the mathematical modelling, conducted by epidemiologists, that has been going on for at least Thirty years.

What I am strongly suggesting to you is that you apply the same discipline to understanding what is happening and, what is going to happen, as you would put into your flying. There are precautions you can take. There are preparations you should make to mitigate the effects of this on you and your family. All major companies have pandemic plans, so should you and your family.

Mickjoebill, W.H.O. have revised the pandemic levels Three times in the last Eighteen months under the Directorship of Margaret Chan. Each time she has pushed the trigger points deeper forward into a developing pandemic. Under the Two previous standards we should have been at level 6 last week, but she revised them again only days before declaring level 4 and was pushed by events to level Five Two days later. You will probably see Level Six this weekend. Chan's reasoning for this is problematic and highly political because there are economic and political consequences of declaring pandemics and Chan is a highly political animal. There are also going to be massive geopolitical upheavels if this is severe because of what it might do to the populations of China and India.

Furthermore, the 1918-1919 Pandemic had a Case Fatality Rate around only 2.5%, it started with a fairly "mild" wave in the Northern Spring of 1918 as well. Furthemore, life at that time was a lot more rural, people were not packed into badly ventilated office buildings and shopping malls. Though we have better medicines and knowledge these days, our hospital system will be overwhelmed in a very few weeks if this goes badly. The damage and danger is not just a result of the lethality of the disease. Imagine a situation when around 20% - 30% of the population is incapacitated at once and the economic dislocation that would cause to the closely coupled global supply chains that support our society today compared to the 1918 economy.

P.S. If you want doomsaying, let me tell you that in a pandemic, Government is about preserving itself, not you.

P.P.S. And all of you can Thank Christ we live in Australia. We have one of the Four World reference centres for influenza and we have a company (CSL) that can make a vaccine that may be able to stop this thing in its tracks.

Ferchrissake, stop being up that river in Egypt - de nile - and go and do your own research about this matter.

Qld Chief Medical Officer
 

Queensland's Chief Medical Officer has this morning made the proclamation that we should all stockpile food and avoid crowds to lessen the likelihood of contracting the latest media flu.:rolleyes:

Excellent. That should ensure the other 43000 that were going to the Gabba tomorrow night will stay home and I'll be able to watch the Bombers in peace without those pesky Lions fans

Thanks for further explanation Sunfish. A consulting doctor told my wife's employer not to bother following info from the WHO. The CDC is more up to date and has a better handle on it.

The US VP p1ssed off the US airlines when he mentioned that he has advised his family not to fly for the next few weeks. They're talking lawsuit.

Discussion on US public radio last night on why the WHO declared a level 5. It didn't seem to be warranted according to the interviewees, which has a lot of people wondering whether there is a lot more to swine flu than what is being told.

Vaccine production will take longer than expected. The flu is slower developing in eggs than other flu vaccines.

The other problem is that the airing of this information is giving a lot of very boring people in normally very mundane jobs, the opportunity to grasp their 15 minutes and they're taking it.

I work in Qld Health and we've been receiving email updates twice a day. Here's the latest without the media panic.

There are eight confirmed cases of death from swine flu, H1N1, whatever, in Mexico. This from 176 deaths. Why even quote the number 176? Why not quote those who've died last year, or the year before that from the flu, a flu, any flu? EIGHT confirmed deaths from this strain.

I am amazed this is continuing to be considered a disaster. But wait, if it's not a disaster now, it will be soon. Is that right? Just in case you didn't read the above slowly, eight deaths. In total. As of today. In Mexico! When should we panic, exactly?

The real sickness is in those who INSIST on being scared of their own shadows. And if you're not scared of their shadow, they'll tell you YOU are the one who's in denial.

4PW's you are as misinformed as an aviation journalist. This has to be taken seriously until it can be proved that it isn't, something that I hope for.

Political games are being played in Mexico and elsewhere with people pussyfooting about the definitions of "Suspected" and "confirmed", that is why you see the conflicting numbers.

Here are the latest Australian figures, the numbers will go up and down: