oh yes - everything is the fault of the media. what a bunch of paranoid hippies visit this site. you'll be banging on about chemtrails and faked moon landings next. :}

read the WHO release put out this morning and make up your own mind. yes, some reporting can be pretty wild and it might all come to nothing, but for the moment there is real concern about this one.

WHO | Swine influenza

Yep, your right, there's nothing better than calling up the 'experts'.

Anyone else notice how all the experts/media sound like they are in a Hollywood disaster movie...who wants to bet the two remaining Brisbane suspected cases will test negative too?

Sunfish a new, never before seen, strain of flu appears EVERY YEAR. That is what Flu does. In the last week or so a couple of 1000 people worldwide have died of normal influenza, as happens every week, year in year out...maybe 120 have died of swine flu.

How many people do you suppose died of malaria in the last 2 weeks..and the two weeks before that...and etc?

Tell us again why we should be worried?

mmm
 

Thought i was gonna get arrested last night.

Standing in line at one of those sandwich making joints, with a pi..., er, copper standing next to me.

He sneezed and i said, "I see you have the 'pig' flu".:E

Well the look i got, thought i was done for sure until the missus dragged me away with heartfelt apologies.

Wish i would think before blurting.

I can't believe you are taking yourself seriously, quoting Wikipedia.

That is the most discredited site of all sites on the web.

It is not a reliable source of information, but hey, keep reading it and post your fears here.

I am not a legend...

CC, yeah around 170 or so died in Mexico but in fact only around 8 have been positively as a result of the "Swine" flu. And why was NZ so quickly able to positively test their few cases while here in OZ the number of suspected cases climbs daily but still no positive result? (even after almost a week?)

I havent watched any telly the last couple of weeks so not sure how hysterical they are but guess the commercial networks are having a field day with this one! I heard a guy on talkback radio saying pet shops should get rid of those dried pig ears as they are dangerous to human health?! WTF? If they do get rid of them deliver all dried pig ears free of charge to my shed, I'll stockpile them and once the hysteria dies down make a killing! :E (If not I will have to re-hydrate them and use them s Berley I guess)


I understand the opinion of the WHO and they are the experts but it is the way the world is these days, everyone has to cover their ar$es! Just think of the OH&S departments, they are the authority right? Yes so we should believe them especially when they mandate on a kettle in my workplace a sign saying "Warning Hot Water may burn" (yes this is true no joke) The western worlds authorities have been corrupted by this arse covering policy and that's why I believe so many people don't trust them, I am not saying they are wrong on this one just like the boy that cried Dingo! I mean Wolf!

I went to Hong Kong in the middle of the Bird Flu Outbreak and it was the best time ever! Easy to get around, eating lot's of Chicken etc, and going to the pubs every night! And I am not saying Bird Flu was good, I knew someone that got it and they were mighty sick but at the end of the day you are as likely to get that or Swine Flu at the same chance of any new flu which for me personally is pretty rare, so chances wise I'll take the risk!

I'm sorry but channel 10 just took this cr@p to a whole new level. Sandra Sully opened the 5pm news bulletin with:

"Sydney airport has installed a new system of defence in the WAR AGAINST SWINE FLU."

Is she JOKING?! War against swine flu? What the hell is wrong with these people and where do they come up with this disgusting excuse for journalism? :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

vh-ufo, you should have asked if he wanted some "Oinkment"!



Allright...I'm going.......

There is an infinity of posts on Pprune about the inaccuracy of articles about aviation.

You should therefore assume that their articles about Flu Pandemics are similarly flawed, right?

I spent Six years working with the scientists who do this stuff.

If you ignore what is going on you are ******. Translation: This is not a drill, and it is serious.

On the positive side, I guess there will be some job openings for people who prepared to survive this pandemic. What amazes me is the attitude of those who have never even researched the subject. If you have not studied this matter, start learning right now. By the time that the average man learns, it will be too late for most of them.

Like Sunfish, I've spent time working with people who do this stuff.

For the most part, this one isn't a media beat-up. Those who run the media have been told about the importance of this story by health organisations. It helps the media that the story is sensational, and it doesn't help the rest of us that there will be dopey reporting, but one of the first steps in controlling any outbreak of disease is to make the public aware of it. This has been done very effectively.

The next step is to control its spread, and if it means closing borders, governments will do this and this will mean disruption for the airline industry.

The bad news is that the Mexican government were slow to realise the significance of this virus and worse still, this virus seems to be highly infectious.

The good news is that it is apparently - for the moment - less lethal than the recent bird flu virus. It's also more treatable because we have pharmaceuticals that weren't around during the last great H1N1 virus pandemic in 1918. And hopefully in a few months there will be a vaccine that protects us, just like vaccines were created for smallpox and poliomyelitis.

Even more good news is that governments internationally are responding quickly to contain outbreaks of the virus, using plans that have been created and exercised by medical scientists. Hopefully early action will mean that the sceptics can remain sceptical for the next time around.

And the advice that I've received from a trusted doctor? Wash you hands! More often than not respiratory viruses are passed from your hands to your nose, eyes or mouth, not directly from another infected person's breath.

Gesundheit.

Sunfish, I appreciate your comments, but must admit that after many years of seeing all sorts of bleatings by the Chicken Littles of the community, I am suspicious of public statements that resemble someone throwing their hands in the air, running in circles and screaming, "We're all gonna die!"
Obviously, by the way the WHO is treating this, it is regarded as serious. Schools are closing in the US for two weeks, but that action is seemingly causing more problems than it attempts to solve. Parents have to stay home from work to look after the kids and the kids are congregating in public places regardless. I, like many, try to look for a balanced coverage of the circumstances and seek opinions of those knowledgeable on the subject for advice. It doesn't help to be a doomsayer on the subject, assuming the worst case scenario, as many in the media attempt to highlight. It yet could be an isolated development and a mild form of influenza. It doesn't help to spread panic when, for most people, they have little control over the outcome.

If it is so infectious why do so few have it considering it has been around for about a month and those that do have it have mixed with thousands of people at airports and been in very close proximity to hundreds onboard long haul flights?

Level 5 response does not seem to tally with the rate of spread?



Mickjoebill

Give sandra a break... she's employed to 'read'. I should be so lucky!

Ask Doctor Google
 

Google say that 40% of searches involve a health question.
In the United States they have found that there is a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms.

They have mapped instances where flu related terms has been searched in mexico over the last 2 months.

Google Flu Trends | How does this work?
Google Flu Trends | Mexico

It shows a peak a few weeks ago and then a decline back to normal levels.
The peak of a few weeks ago is no more than peaks for the last 4 years and half the peak of 2003.

So the show is over?

Maybe not, in 1968 the Hong Kong flu took a year to reach the USA, where 32000 died.

There appears to be a trend in the last three Pandemics
1918 Spanish flu killed 40 million
1957 Asian flu killed 2 million
1968 Hong kong flu killed 1 million.

Mickjoebill

Lodown:

Firstly, the WHO is about a week behind the action according to the epidemiologists. This thing may last for up to Eighteen months and it is only just starting.

Secondly, the closing of schools was always known to be going to cause trouble. There are an infinity of scientific papers on the subject of that because it is one of a range of NPI's (Non pharmaceutical interventions) that are known to slow the spread of a pandemic should it occur. Public health professionals have been studying these matters for decades.

To put it another way, the closing of schools, restaurants, churches and the cancellation of public events is not a knee jerk reaction by scared politicians, it's a recommended course of action called social distancingthat has been studied and debated to death for Thirty plus years. Furthermore, it won't stop the pandemic, it will merely slow it, and yes, we know about teenagers and shopping malls, you are going to need a set of handcuffs.

Thirdly, the only "balance" applicable at the moment regards the question of the Case Fatality Rate of the first, and perhaps second and third waves of the flu. We already know that the attack rate (infectiousness) is rather high, although the reliable figures will have to wait until the epidemiologists can get enough accurate data.

Fourthly. I am not a doomsayer. The papers are filled with garbage on the subject. The reality is that you have not seen anything yet. If you go to the websites mentioned (especially Flu Wiki) you will start to learn that this event has not even properly begun. The peak of the first(and hopefully only) wave will occur in about Three months from now unless this thing fizzles out, which it currently shows no intention of doing. Please go and read about it and the mathematical modelling, conducted by epidemiologists, that has been going on for at least Thirty years.

What I am strongly suggesting to you is that you apply the same discipline to understanding what is happening and, what is going to happen, as you would put into your flying. There are precautions you can take. There are preparations you should make to mitigate the effects of this on you and your family. All major companies have pandemic plans, so should you and your family.

Mickjoebill, W.H.O. have revised the pandemic levels Three times in the last Eighteen months under the Directorship of Margaret Chan. Each time she has pushed the trigger points deeper forward into a developing pandemic. Under the Two previous standards we should have been at level 6 last week, but she revised them again only days before declaring level 4 and was pushed by events to level Five Two days later. You will probably see Level Six this weekend. Chan's reasoning for this is problematic and highly political because there are economic and political consequences of declaring pandemics and Chan is a highly political animal. There are also going to be massive geopolitical upheavels if this is severe because of what it might do to the populations of China and India.

Furthermore, the 1918-1919 Pandemic had a Case Fatality Rate around only 2.5%, it started with a fairly "mild" wave in the Northern Spring of 1918 as well. Furthemore, life at that time was a lot more rural, people were not packed into badly ventilated office buildings and shopping malls. Though we have better medicines and knowledge these days, our hospital system will be overwhelmed in a very few weeks if this goes badly. The damage and danger is not just a result of the lethality of the disease. Imagine a situation when around 20% - 30% of the population is incapacitated at once and the economic dislocation that would cause to the closely coupled global supply chains that support our society today compared to the 1918 economy.

P.S. If you want doomsaying, let me tell you that in a pandemic, Government is about preserving itself, not you.

P.P.S. And all of you can Thank Christ we live in Australia. We have one of the Four World reference centres for influenza and we have a company (CSL) that can make a vaccine that may be able to stop this thing in its tracks.

Ferchrissake, stop being up that river in Egypt - de nile - and go and do your own research about this matter.

Qld Chief Medical Officer
 

Queensland's Chief Medical Officer has this morning made the proclamation that we should all stockpile food and avoid crowds to lessen the likelihood of contracting the latest media flu.:rolleyes:

Excellent. That should ensure the other 43000 that were going to the Gabba tomorrow night will stay home and I'll be able to watch the Bombers in peace without those pesky Lions fans

Thanks for further explanation Sunfish. A consulting doctor told my wife's employer not to bother following info from the WHO. The CDC is more up to date and has a better handle on it.

The US VP p1ssed off the US airlines when he mentioned that he has advised his family not to fly for the next few weeks. They're talking lawsuit.

Discussion on US public radio last night on why the WHO declared a level 5. It didn't seem to be warranted according to the interviewees, which has a lot of people wondering whether there is a lot more to swine flu than what is being told.

Vaccine production will take longer than expected. The flu is slower developing in eggs than other flu vaccines.

The other problem is that the airing of this information is giving a lot of very boring people in normally very mundane jobs, the opportunity to grasp their 15 minutes and they're taking it.

I work in Qld Health and we've been receiving email updates twice a day. Here's the latest without the media panic.

There are eight confirmed cases of death from swine flu, H1N1, whatever, in Mexico. This from 176 deaths. Why even quote the number 176? Why not quote those who've died last year, or the year before that from the flu, a flu, any flu? EIGHT confirmed deaths from this strain.

I am amazed this is continuing to be considered a disaster. But wait, if it's not a disaster now, it will be soon. Is that right? Just in case you didn't read the above slowly, eight deaths. In total. As of today. In Mexico! When should we panic, exactly?

The real sickness is in those who INSIST on being scared of their own shadows. And if you're not scared of their shadow, they'll tell you YOU are the one who's in denial.

4PW's you are as misinformed as an aviation journalist. This has to be taken seriously until it can be proved that it isn't, something that I hope for.

Political games are being played in Mexico and elsewhere with people pussyfooting about the definitions of "Suspected" and "confirmed", that is why you see the conflicting numbers.

Here are the latest Australian figures, the numbers will go up and down:

Might be a good time to head for Alice Springs for a sabbatical.. :ooh:

Not a bad idea...

the numbers in the right hand column certainly won't go down! 0, nil, nada.


at least wait until someone in Australia is confirmed!!

Fortunately, I still have plenty stockpiled from the Y2K threat, getting a bit sick of baked beans though. Anyway, Mavis, load up the shotgun!! :ok:

Sunfish what is your address, I wil send you a mask and a thermometer, I will also bet you my right n$t, you are still with us in 6 months time.

Sunfish you REALLY need to get hold of a book called The Science of Fear by Daniel Gardner.

The book is basically about how irrational fear is actually dangerous...and why our brains work the way they do.

It also explains a lot of other interesting facts about our psyche...as in why so many people believe in disastrous global warming when there is actually no strong evidence to support that hypothesis...and a shedload of other stuff...including fears about 'pandemics' and WHY those fears are irrational.

Good read!!:ok:

Let's not pick on Sunfish. He's fair dinkum, just doesn't agree with the rest of us.

I'm awake at an odd hour, again. Back from the other side of the world, I am. Two hours here, three hours there; pretty soon my body will know where it is and sleep through the night. That'll be just in time to go back to work.

I'm not an aviation journalist, travel journalist or financial journalist. Sorry if I misled you.

The figures I quoted came from the Financial Times. I didn't know they were misinformed. Do you really think they are? It's a great sub. Pretty inexpensive as an online publication, and very readable. The streaming video section alone is worth the price of US$3.79 a week, online.

We're preparing for global pandemic by taking the kids to the neighbors farm, 45 minutes south of us. Camping, fishing, shooting the ood roo, stargazing at night. I hear Orion is high in the night sky.

I'll buy the book, Chuck, thanks.

Chimbu, I'm not fearful at all. Even that matter, - fear of a pandemic - has been discussed to death and I got over what's called the "adjustment reaction" to this years ago.

I am unsurprised by the reactions demonstrated on by people on this forum because they are typical and all of them have been discussed, even researched, in great depth.

I would like to think the aviation community is more intelligent then the general community.

The reason I am posting here is to encourage Ppruners to read about Influenza Pandemics , preferably at Flu Wiki. That way you won't have an "adjustment reaction" if people start getting crook.

Don't let the apparent "mildness" of this virus fool you either. The damage and deaths caused by a pandemic are caused by the volume of cases overwhelming the health system as well as secondary infections. Don't be confused by the apparent small number of cases either.

What is important is the attack rate (R0) which is a statistical measure of how many people an infected person infects. The attack rate for this thing is very high - it is highly infectious. The growth rate of cases in a pandemic is an exponential function, so it starts small and slow, but the rate accelerates week by week.The first three or four weeks of a pandemic always look unremarkable it's the second month when cases skyrocket. Having said that, the first hospitals in the U.S. are putting up triage tents in parking lots as we speak and schools are starting to close.

If you want to understand the worldwide scale of this thing go here:
: Veratect (Veratect) on Twitter

If you want to learn about pandemics, go here: Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki

To put it another way, I hope this is a Y2K issue. But all research indicates that we may delay the virus entering Australia, but we won't stop it.

from what i have read, the swine flu has a kill rate of about 3%, same as the regular flu, so if you keep healthy, and heat healthily, you will be fine.

The krudd government over states everything - climate change - the recession - swine 'flu etc just to cover their @rses because they don't really know. Last year in Oz over 2,000 people died of "normal" 'flu. The QLD government has even suggested stockpiling food/water and bunkering down! Less than 10% of the population is going to be unemployed due to the recession - let me know when we get to 50% then I'll start to worry. A couple of months ago we were all going to be eaten by a plague of sharks - then it was rampaging mobs of salties! Now the collective state governments have discovered that bikies are the next great threat. Give me a break!!
GAGS
E86
PS Who remembers the Y2K phenomena - that was going to send us back to the stone age - if you listened to the "experts"!?

I wasn't inferring you were afraid Sunfish merely that The Science Of Fear was a worthwhile read. It explains really well how Govts, NGOs, Corporations etc use fear constantly and why it works with the majority of the population:ok:

I underestimated the Influenza deaths in the US/annum. It is 36000 and over 200,000 worldwide...every year. Big numbers eh?

This is what NGOs and the Media do...they give you the raw number without any context. They will also provide lots of images..the more emotive the better...people wearing masks, little children laying helplessly in hospitals, harried medical staff. And they draw completely irresponsible and inaccurate
comparisons with prior events like the 1918 Pandemic.

200000 worldwide deaths/annum equates to 0.03% of the world population. Doesn't sound so scary now does it?

SARs killed 800 worldwide but mostly in China?

That equates to .000008% just assuming all deaths were in China...the number if you include the world population wont even fit on my calculator.

If we assume for the sake of argument that 'Swine Flu' infects says 3000 people in Mexico that would be .0027% of the Mexican population of circa 110,000 000.

Thus far we are talking 100s of suspected cases not 1000s and 10s of deaths not 100s.

So is all the angst and money wasted on this 'pandemic' worth it?

Doesn't sound like to me.

1000s more people are dying daily from heart attacks, car accidents, normal influenza, diabetes, malaria and a dozen other things...but they dont resonate with the media....too hard to make a scary headline out of Diabetes:ugh:

The reason comparisons in the media to the 1918 pandemic are irresponsible and unreasonable is that in 1918 they didn't even have the most basic knowledge of hygiene nor even the most basic drugs. So called 'experts' who get their face on TV and suggest 'it is just a matter of time before another 1918 size pandemic hits the planet' are being disingenuous to say the least.

4PW glad to see you back flying:ok:

Chimbu, I'm afraid I have to tell you that it's not the Governments and NGO's that are driving this matter, quite the reverse. They are doing everything in their power to play down the risk.

Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.

Governments everywhere are sending you a message that is about Government surviving a pandemic, not about you surviving a pandemic. This is not tinfoil hat stuff. If there is a bad pandemic, which is not yet sure, then you and your family are in deep ***** on any number of levels, starting with the fact that iof you have any relatives with medical conditions they are going to have difficulty getting treatment, and if you yourself get the flu, and you develop complications (ie secondary infections) then it's Syonara mate.

Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.

Why don't we all start eating just cabbage, surely there has never been cabbage flu? I am not going anywhere until I have worked my way thru my rough red collection and my viagra tablets, then and only then am I prepared to do my last circuit.:E

Wikipedia is starting to be about as reliable and factual as our guvmints.

My old man always told me "beware of half-truths...you may have the wrong half "

And that's the biggest problem with Wikipedia and government propoganda, you only get half....usually only the bit they want you to see or hear that distracts us from asking the hard questions.:=

So far the stats are making this a pretty big yawn. :zzz::suspect:

Panic spread | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

Ya think?

So who knows?
 

Does anyone here think the WHO is wrong to raise the Pandemic Alert Level to 6? It means Pandemic Imminent.

This may be a starting point so that we are all debating (if there is any debate) from a poistion of knowledge, not guesswork. WHO | Swine influenza


Do you understand what a pandemic is? What causes it? What the potential outcomes are? What you should or should not do? perhaps this may help. An interview with Dr Michael Osterholm. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Minnesota Monthly - Osterholm on the Perils and Politics of Avian Flu


This a link from 11JAN06. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Snowy Owl-Interviews With the Experts It is a series of interviews with some of the worlds leading lighhts on Influenza A, virology, epidemiology etc. They were interviewed at a time when there was serious concern about H5N1 evolving into a pandemic but the information they provide is still germane today.

The world authorities are giving their collective considered opinion. They say a pandemic is imminent. I am not one to disregard the experts in any field. Make up your own minds of course but instead of wild conjecture and personal attacks perhaps we should all focus on seeking the truth.

For the professional Pilots amongst us this is just another issue that needs a bit of applied CRM .. it's about what's right .. not who's right and then make good decisions.

Cheers,

Brad

Casa Bans All Staff Travel Due To A(H1N1)
 

Out for tea in Brisbane on Saturday night I found out that the new CEO of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, Australia has placed a ban on staff travel due to the influenza oubreak.

The CASA CEO apparently stated in an e-mail to all staff on Friday 1st of May that all travel is banned for OHS reasons as the CEO is exercising his "Duty of Care".

If it is so dangerous to travel then he also has a duty of care to all Australians. Doesn't he?

So why is CASA at odds with the Minister for Health and the World Health Organisation? The CEO is completely out of step with the WHO's information released on the same day. Interesting that this WHO information wasn't given any airing in the media.

CASA's reputation is bound to take a severe pasting over this given that the CEO has now joined the media hype, panic and the great uninformed.

If it is truly dangerous to travel then the CEO of CASA has a duty of care to all the airlines, flight crew, cabin crew, check-in staff and the public and he should be getting the entire industry to shut down.

I wonder if the Minister for Transport and Minister for Health will back up the CASA CEO for his courageous decision?

Maybe I can use it as an excuse with my airline and say that I can't work this week because even the CEO of CASA says its too dangerous to travel?

WHO update 1 May 2009 shown below.

You decide.:confused:

John.


No rationale for travel restrictions

1 May 2009 -- </SPAN>WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus. Today, international travel moves rapidly, with large numbers of individuals visiting various parts of the world. Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community.
Influenza A(H1N1) has already been confirmed in many parts of the world. The focus now is on minimizing the impact of the virus through the rapid identification of cases and providing patients with appropriate medical care, rather than on stopping its spread internationally. Furthermore, although identifying the signs and symptoms of influenza in travellers can be an effective monitoring technique, it is not effective in reducing the spread of influenza as the virus can be transmitted from person to person before the onset of symptoms. Scientific research based on mathematical modelling indicates that restricting travel will be of limited or no benefit in stopping the spread of disease. Historical records of previous influenza pandemics, as well as experience with SARS, have validated this point.
Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations related to travel aimed at preventing the spread of infection. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only influenza A(H1N1).

This is getting very boaring, for us in Australia normal a hygiene regime will keep the average person safe as you can possibly be without living in a bubble - at the moment you have more chance of dieing from being run over by a bus.

Let the talking heads and ill-informed pollies run around like chooks with their head chopped off. The rest of us should just take our normal precautions against colds/flu that we take at this time of year and get on with our lives.

Too many people are crying "WOLF"

//Satire On//

Sow on that note I'll retire to by hermetically sealed bunker and activate the atmospheric recycler with .05 micron filters with oxygen regeneration and won't come out until there is only myself and half a dozen nubile young beautiful ladies left alive, then I'll go about repopulating this green and verdant planet.



//Satire Off//

damned if you do and if you dont
 

I think govts WHO and CDC et al are right to be very cautious.It looks as if mexico have talked it up too much or other factors have contributed to the deaths there.
If they did little or nothing AND it did explode we'd be a tad peeved yes?
Its their job to warn inform prevent immunise etc.I'd rather a warning for something that in the end is contained than negligence and avoidable deaths.
The tabloid press and low brow TV shows are having a field day.So much tripe being reported.

With the flu pandemic in / around 1918 millions died.Sure it was a low % of those who actually contracted the disease but caution is warranted.Too many people already die too soon from preventable diseases.
One thing I did note from the 1918 outbreak reports was that in the early days it was not that serious but a second wave of flu ( possibly a mutation of the 1st virus? ) caused the real damage.

That amplclamp is exactly what is causing the concern about H1N1/2009 amongst the worlds experts.

A pandemic strain must meet three criteria:

1. A new virus must emerge first. This normally occurs due to antigenic drift or recombination in a host species (often swine or aquatic avians). H1N1/2009 is a whole new critter.

2. It must be novel to humans and able to cause disease therein = we have no immunity which also normally infers a high CFR (Case Fatality Rate). This is a big difference to seasonal Flu A strains. In a pandemic not just a couple of hundred thusand die. The numbers are waaaay higher for a couple of reasons!

3. It must be easily and sustainably spread between humans = have an affinity for the cells in the upper respiratory tract for aerosol infection (this is why H5N1 is not a pandemic .. it only reproduces well in humans deep in the lungs so it is hard to get it there) or able to survive for lengthy periods on surfaces contacted by multiple persons and then able to infect them. Flu A is already good at this. It is also why the main focus of pandemic prevention is on personal hygiene, hand washing, cough etiquette, learning not to touch your face etc.

An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.

This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.

Cheers,

Brad