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Qantas will be dead in 6 months
Qantas faces being gutted and restructured around Jetstar model: aviation expert | Business | News.com.au
QANTAS will no longer exist in its current form if the downturn that is crippling the industry lasts another six months, one of Australia's leading aviation experts has claimed. Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation director Peter Harbison said that a currently unprofitable Qantas faces being gutted and reconstructed around a more profitable Jetstar model. He also told The Daily Telegraph yesterday that the 3300 jobs already axed at the airline would be easily superceded in the coming months if conditions did not improve. The airline confirmed on Tuesday it was currently losing money and was likely to chalk up a loss of up to $180 million in the first six months of 2009. To help stem further losses, it also announced a 5 per cent reduction in capacity, the axing of a further 1750 frontline staff and senior managers, grounding of 10 aircraft and multiple delays of new aircraft on order. Qantas blamed a dramatic fall in international travel for its unglamorous slide into the red. Its bottom line is also being decimated by a cut-throat airfares war that has had ticket prices fall to unprecedented levels. Those levels simply can't be sustained, Mr Harbison said. "If this environment continues, we basically have an unprofitable Qantas airline that doesn't have a future. "Even if we stay at the same level for six months, they really have to look at ripping the airline apart and doing something dramatically different. "There will definitely be a lot more jobs cuts but, more than that, the whole structure of the company will have to change." Contrarily, Qantas' budget carrier Jetstar continues to trade positively, largely due to its slim cost base and appeal to budget-conscious travellers. Mr Harbison said Qantas would not have made it through the current recession if it had not launched Jetstar in 2005 to counter Virgin Blue. While Qantas management expressed confidence in the airline's future, its boss Alan Joyce seemed to echo those sentiments yesterday He told Business Spectator it was Qantas' broad portfolio - namely Jetstar and the performing Qantas Frequent Flyer program - that was aiding its survival. |
If there is any truth to the accusations that Jetstar's performamce in the past few years has been as a result of some crafty accounting that has shifted costs to Qantas' books, we'll soon have indications to confirm or deny.
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16 October 2009. Lets wait and see.:ugh:
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Actually, better sell off the profitable stuff before it all goes under.:ouch: How much for the orange gear?
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Transferred from Qantas pilots chat room:
Financial Review on Wednesday the 15th of April;
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Struggling, I think that last point was a quote from the poster, not the fin review.
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Is this the same Harbison that predicted Rex would last 1 month???
I think your crystal ball is a little foggy Mr Harbison... |
Recent announcements that the Roo is bringing back home heavy maintenance that was being carried out in: HKG, KL & MNL seems to indicate that Harberson’s view that Qantas is proceeding with the 'Dixon Plan' is somewhat short-sighted.
How myopic his view is won’t be known until the Qantas Group actually revokes proposed crewing of its Trans Tasman operations with New Zealand based pilots. Personally believe it is reasonable to presume that the Roo will become increasingly willing to appease the Government and the Unions in order to get up necessary changes to the Qantas Sale Act so it can consolidate globally. Real shame AIPA let its GM go. Can't use industrial tactics to solve Trans National issues. := |
Dragun,
Read the same article myself, the quote is from the Fin Review. Was also gobsmacked to read that overseas maintenance will be returned to Australia in an effort to reduce maintenance costs. I thought that was the reason maintenance was transferred OS in the first place. They're just making it up as they go along. |
Gone by October hey? - Bugger
Anybody want to swap me for LSL over Christmas - New Year period. |
Holic
I meant the quote "I do not envisage any "intention" to change any "initial" plans that we have been told to date..." was not from the article in the financial review as per my post. Which is why struggling has edited his post. Minor point. |
Gingerbread,
This is all part of the NEW Dixon plan. Funny how the man responsible for slashing engineering jobs in Australia is now on a Queensland board designed to retain, and develop, new jobs in Queensland. Watch the overseas jobs come back to Australia and Dixon make a pretty penny in the process. |
I think it was predicited by many people from day 1 of Jetstar, after enough years the Jetstar brand or at least some of it will be rebranded back into Qantas coulours.
There is no way you are going to let one of the most recognisable marketing icons such as Qantas go under. What management ideally want is Qantas coulours and pay Jetstar salaries. It is going to happen. You know why, because the Jetstar excercise has already proven to management that pilots, flight attendants, check-in people etc will fly/work for those lower salaries. It is just a process of slowly introducing that into mainline. If it doesn't happen, then maybe Mr Harbison is right. This is no normal recession, not just a downturn and then come out the other side. This recession is significantly going to change the way lots of businesses/industries run. Qantas will have to be a very different beast to grow and continue as a great airline. This is not meant to be a negative post, just that i think reality will be very different now. |
There is no way you are going to let one of the most recognisable marketing icons such as Qantas go under. What management ideally want is Qantas coulours and pay Jetstar salaries. It is going to happen. Jetstar is an integral part of the QANTAS Group - but it is not going to, like some will suggest, cause the demise of QANTAS Mainline. I think this site should be renamed the Professional Pilots Nonsense Network. |
the Jetstar excercise has already proven to management that pilots, flight attendants, check-in people etc will fly/work for those lower salaries. Remember the 457 visas for foreign crew. The economic cycle has turned, they'll get the crew now. But once we emerge from the downturn. Those who have gained experience will look to greener pastures. |
If that nice Mr Harbison says its true, then it must be true.
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How many LAME's were let go when all the MX went offshore? Could it now be cheaper here because QF will re employ them at lower or casual rates?
I'll just go & put my cynic back in the box shall I? |
Is this the same Harbison that predicted Rex would last 1 month??? I think your crystal ball is a little foggy Mr Harbison... PETER HARBISON: "Right or wrong, I think it's going to occur probably in the next six months, and we'll probably see Singapore Airlines operating that route some time in 2006." :ugh: |
I guess if we all flew aircraft with the degree of accuracy that jornos employ then jornos would have a lot more to write about! :}
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As ironic as the following quote by Comfy would be:
Watch the overseas jobs come back to Australia and Dixon make a pretty penny in the process. Here's hoping. :) |
You adapt to changing market conditions or you die, period.
This goes for a "one man band" right up to a "dinosaur". |
I think with all thats going on EBA wise at the moment ( payrises etc ) that any form of promotion will likely be on Jetstar type terms, ie: Qantas has further reductions in services but aircraft and flying get shuffled over to the Star. They won't be able to crew it from anywhere else BUT mainline.
Shame really. And Harbison is a GOOSE!! GUARD:ok: |
I don't belive for one minute than QANTAS will be dead in six months, but it may be a much leaner operation.
JNB frequency will probably be reduced, LAX-JFK will be axed (How full is the 744 from LAX-JFK?) BUE is on dodgy ground, as are the FRA flights and at least one flight a day from SYD to LHR will go to Jetstar (probably to LGW or STN) Additional A330's will go to Jetstar to cover for the non apperance of the B787, and Jetstar will pick up some Saturday afternoon / Early Sunday morning services on the BNE-SYD-MEL triangle, as well as MEL-ADL off peak services 7 days a week. 7378FE |
There sure are some fools pontificating bullsh1t around here.
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There sure are some fools pontificating bullsh1t around here. |
There sure are some fools pontificating bullsh1t around here. |
I doubt Qantas will be dead in 6 months. If they are becoming so, the government sure wouldn't allow it to become under. Afterall, it is the nation's national carrier. The government would surely step in to help.
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The government would surely step in to help |
ha
Harbison is a ******... Qantas dead in 6 months and J* saving the world(despite contributing less than 10% of earnings-Aus FIN review) naturally no mention of the cost of the J* model.. Change hands peter :mad: |
it is the nation's national carrier but sadly Mr Dudd will bail them out.... |
Reality Check
How many aircraft does Jet* International have?How many destinations?
Jet* is not currently in a position to do much of anything If QF falls over who is going to prop up JetStar? Qantas is going to have a long and healthy life.So lets all calm down |
Nothing is sure. None of us knows what the future will bring.
Who forecast this economic collapse? Nobody. Then who the hell can forecast when a recovery will take place if indeed there will be one, or who knows a way to instigate a recovery? |
"Who forecast this economic collapse?"
Many many people. |
Qantas Will Never Die
There is no way the Government will let QANTAS collapse............
Think about the volume of travellers there are on any given day flying interstate. There will not be enough capacity to cater to the demands of the flying public if QANTAS folds. It's as simple as that. If QANTAS goes under, so will the economy. ANSETT was a different story; the government new that there was no need for two major airlines in Australia and that there would be sufficient travel infrastructure with one major Aussie Carrier. |
are you the same bloke that fronted buster hymen and the penetrators in the seventies:)
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There will not be enough capacity to cater to the demands of the flying public if QANTAS folds if QF does go under, im sure VB, Tiger, Air NZ, United, BA, and others will fill the gaps in capacity quite rapidly. |
JNB frequency will probably be reduced, LAX-JFK will be axed (How full is the 744 from LAX-JFK?) BUE is on dodgy ground, as are the FRA flights and at least one flight a day from SYD to LHR will go to Jetstar (probably to LGW or STN) |
Doesn't QF have in excess of 3bn in cash reserves?
Hardly likely to go under considering they are still expecting to make a profit even in this tough environment.:ugh: |
Not that I think they will either but never say never in the business world. Do a search for a few months before Ansett went broke - they posted a profit the year before they went broke, and were proclaiming a 'war chest' of millions of dollars as well didn't seem to exist! And lots of regulars on here were proclaiming it would never happen either.
I still proclaim that they plan to run QF into the ground and prop it all up in the form of transferring work over to JQ all on their payrates etc. Once QF is nearly 'ground' up as it stands and JQ is huge and a massive low cost base - then part of Jetstar could rename to the 'new' Qantas. They can't make people transfer to JQ on lower wages - but if they are made redundant from a bleeding QF then it's that or nothing. I could be wrong - but it is a rumour network! |
I give up. Whats a "wala"?
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