SARS the "threat"
knackeredII
I agree with the direction of your post except the great flue epidemic of 1918 had a mortality rate of about 2.5% not 30.0% as you quoted (See the link below). It had a very similar mortality rate to SARS except SARS is obviously not as infectious as the Spanish flue otherwise we would be seeing people dropping like flies which isn’t happening. This is a complete media beat up which needs to be addressed by people sending the media outlets letters and e-mails of what they think of their reporting.
www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
I agree with the direction of your post except the great flue epidemic of 1918 had a mortality rate of about 2.5% not 30.0% as you quoted (See the link below). It had a very similar mortality rate to SARS except SARS is obviously not as infectious as the Spanish flue otherwise we would be seeing people dropping like flies which isn’t happening. This is a complete media beat up which needs to be addressed by people sending the media outlets letters and e-mails of what they think of their reporting.
www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
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You're right, this is a media beat up.
But the reason for the beat up is fear.
And the reason for the fear is a psychological reaction to a build up of market forces whose full effects have yet to be fully realised.
People are aware of this, at a mostly sub-conscious level.
Our responses are borne out in the markets, in this SARS scare, and in war.
Rallying against the beat up, as described, is pointless.
SARS and the beat up of its effects, though not yet fully realised or understood, is a consequence of the psychology of fear, not a generator of fear.
These things are well described in Robert Prechter's books on market analysis, specifically, 'Tidal Wave'.
Other exceptionally good reading, for a glimpse of the way the world is reacting to terrorism for instance, can be found in Philip Bobbit's epic tome, 'Achilles Shield.'
But the reason for the beat up is fear.
And the reason for the fear is a psychological reaction to a build up of market forces whose full effects have yet to be fully realised.
People are aware of this, at a mostly sub-conscious level.
Our responses are borne out in the markets, in this SARS scare, and in war.
Rallying against the beat up, as described, is pointless.
SARS and the beat up of its effects, though not yet fully realised or understood, is a consequence of the psychology of fear, not a generator of fear.
These things are well described in Robert Prechter's books on market analysis, specifically, 'Tidal Wave'.
Other exceptionally good reading, for a glimpse of the way the world is reacting to terrorism for instance, can be found in Philip Bobbit's epic tome, 'Achilles Shield.'
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titan, agree with you 100%. The figures you quote however are for the general population, I am using figures for those infected. Fully 30% of those who caught the Spanish flu at that time died of the disease - between 30-40 million worldwide. Scary stuff eh? The figures for SARS seem to be around 5% of those infected. With a number of these being elderly and suffering from multiple ailments. The truly scary thing about the Spanish flu was that it struck mainly healthy young people in their prime.
Last edited by knackeredII; 18th Apr 2003 at 19:42.
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Picked up an interesting comment from the Minister for Health in Singapore last night.
He said that 85% of SARS cases (and I assume he meant those in Singapore) have resulted from infection caught in hospitals.
He said that 85% of SARS cases (and I assume he meant those in Singapore) have resulted from infection caught in hospitals.
knackeredII
Again I agree with you except by my estimate the mortality rate was between 6.3% and 12.5%. My calculations are based on the world’s population of about 1.6 billion people in 1918. If 1/5 of the worlds population got it as quoted in the link on my previous post, that equates to 320 million. Again from this link if 20 to 40 million people died then I think the maths works out to the above answer. As a side note I always thought mortality rate was a comparison of total deaths to the total number infected. Obviously in my above link this is not the case.
Again I agree with you except by my estimate the mortality rate was between 6.3% and 12.5%. My calculations are based on the world’s population of about 1.6 billion people in 1918. If 1/5 of the worlds population got it as quoted in the link on my previous post, that equates to 320 million. Again from this link if 20 to 40 million people died then I think the maths works out to the above answer. As a side note I always thought mortality rate was a comparison of total deaths to the total number infected. Obviously in my above link this is not the case.
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Can we agree that the Spanish Flu was "alot" more dangerous than SARS? Rather than debate the percentage?
SARS is shaping to look more dangerous from an economic point of view then purely health wise (which is easy to say if you're healthy).
Lets hope they control it soon for everyones sake. Especially the sick.
SARS is shaping to look more dangerous from an economic point of view then purely health wise (which is easy to say if you're healthy).
Lets hope they control it soon for everyones sake. Especially the sick.
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I am going to close this thread and move the most recent and relevant SARS posts to a new thread.
This issue should not focus or reflect on Virgin.
There is some serious economic damage going down out there which affects us all.
One needs only see the footage of the Terminal in Hong Kong to realise that the airlines there are in deep trouble, and it is reflected most every where else.
It may or may not be "as bad" as the Spanish Flu but then people couldn't travel with it from one side of the world to another in less than 24hrs with it either.
The speed of transport then, weeks or months for most journeys, usually "flushed out" any problems en-route.
And then the Captain had to fly the appropriate flag if there was any sickness on board when entering harbour.
As a boy I can still remember the odd "quarantine" and there was a purpose built facility always available for that purpose.
We have become a little blase about the simple things that can kill people in large numbers.
This issue should not focus or reflect on Virgin.
There is some serious economic damage going down out there which affects us all.
One needs only see the footage of the Terminal in Hong Kong to realise that the airlines there are in deep trouble, and it is reflected most every where else.
It may or may not be "as bad" as the Spanish Flu but then people couldn't travel with it from one side of the world to another in less than 24hrs with it either.
The speed of transport then, weeks or months for most journeys, usually "flushed out" any problems en-route.
And then the Captain had to fly the appropriate flag if there was any sickness on board when entering harbour.
As a boy I can still remember the odd "quarantine" and there was a purpose built facility always available for that purpose.
We have become a little blase about the simple things that can kill people in large numbers.
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The news gets bleaker by the day:
Singapore Airlines (SIA) has taken its three remaining Airbus A340-300s out
of service and is grounding its nine remaining Airbus A310s in June as it
suffers from a sharp drop in business caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS) outbreak.
"With the revision of our flight schedules, we have stopped flying the three
A340-300s left in the fleet from 15 April, and the A310-300s will be phased
out in June, five months earlier than originally planned," it says in response to
queries from ATI.
Star Alliance carrier SIA has since the middle of March been badly affected
by a drop in business caused by the SARS outbreak and has cut around 20%
of its scheduled services.
Its three remaining A340-300s - as well as two on order - are being bought by
Boeing. The US manufacturer agreed in 1999 to acquire the carrier's entire
fleet of 17 A340-300s as part of a 777 deal.
Separately, there has been speculation in recent days that SIA will again seek
to defer deliveries of five firm-ordered A340-500s. The aircraft were
originally due to have arrived in January this year but late in 2001 first
deliveries were deferred to October 2003.
The carrier says today that there have been additional minor delays to the
delivery schedule but "we are still planning to launch A340-500 services
early in 2004".
Singapore Airlines (SIA) has taken its three remaining Airbus A340-300s out
of service and is grounding its nine remaining Airbus A310s in June as it
suffers from a sharp drop in business caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS) outbreak.
"With the revision of our flight schedules, we have stopped flying the three
A340-300s left in the fleet from 15 April, and the A310-300s will be phased
out in June, five months earlier than originally planned," it says in response to
queries from ATI.
Star Alliance carrier SIA has since the middle of March been badly affected
by a drop in business caused by the SARS outbreak and has cut around 20%
of its scheduled services.
Its three remaining A340-300s - as well as two on order - are being bought by
Boeing. The US manufacturer agreed in 1999 to acquire the carrier's entire
fleet of 17 A340-300s as part of a 777 deal.
Separately, there has been speculation in recent days that SIA will again seek
to defer deliveries of five firm-ordered A340-500s. The aircraft were
originally due to have arrived in January this year but late in 2001 first
deliveries were deferred to October 2003.
The carrier says today that there have been additional minor delays to the
delivery schedule but "we are still planning to launch A340-500 services
early in 2004".
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I have always taken what the media reports with a large pinch of salt. At first I have tended to agree with the general responce that SARS is more of a Media beat up, but now I'm not so sure.
The problem may well be in the future potential of this virus to reek absolute havoc around the world. I saw an interview on TV with an ozzie doctor this morning, he has just returned home after having been in the thick of it in a HKG hospital, the impression I got from him was that this virus should be taken seriously.
I hate to admit it, but perhaps the Media have unwitingly got it right for once!
The problem may well be in the future potential of this virus to reek absolute havoc around the world. I saw an interview on TV with an ozzie doctor this morning, he has just returned home after having been in the thick of it in a HKG hospital, the impression I got from him was that this virus should be taken seriously.
I hate to admit it, but perhaps the Media have unwitingly got it right for once!
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I guess, sitting in our "comfort zone" it is hard to imagine the hospitals with hundreds of people needing beds and the frenzied staff. Apparently, the symptoms are debilitating - these people are very sick, and the staff no doubt very scared knowing that medical staff have already died from it. Perhaps the hospitals are understaffed with people not turning up for work etc etc.
The percentage of people dying is small, but there are thousands of sick people needing treatment and isolation, and still a lot of answered questions about the virus and how it is spread.
The percentage of people dying is small, but there are thousands of sick people needing treatment and isolation, and still a lot of answered questions about the virus and how it is spread.
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Australian medical authorities suggest that just 200 SARS cases would probably overwhelm the ICU facilities in hospitals due to the intense nature of the required treatment.
This is one time bomb ticking.
This is one time bomb ticking.
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Those interested in the debate as to mortality rates may find some interesting reading here.
And another interesting piece in the local rag ...........
Shenzhen Daily
And another interesting piece in the local rag ...........
Shenzhen Daily
Last edited by Capt Snooze; 22nd Apr 2003 at 16:25.
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Everyone seems to be more concerned about the economical effect of SARS. What about the poor innocent people who contract the diseases and then die. What about there families... Economies rise and fall every day they aren't human. We are the reason to stop the spread of SARS. Humanity reason not economical reasons is why we must defect this disease....... Remember you could be next...
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SARS & Australian Airlines
SARS deals huge blow to tourism
By Jordan Baker
April 23, 2003
THE deadly SARS outbreak has forced Australian Airlines to cut direct services between Asia and the tourist city of Cairns in north Queensland.
The decision is a major blow for the city, which is already suffering a massive dengue fever outbreak and a tourism downturn due to the war in Iraq.
The Qantas subsidiary has been flying direct from Cairns to Nagoya, Osaka and Fukuoka in Japan, and to Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei for less than six months.
But the Cairns-Taipei route has been suspended from May 7 to June 30, and Cairns-Hong Kong flights have been cut from three to one a week until May 27.
Chief executive Denis Adams said the decision was taken in response to a drop in demand for air travel, particularly throughout Asia.
"As a result (of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) our forward booking has been affected," he said.
The changes were temporary, Mr Adams said.
Tropical Tourism North Queensland spokesman Leigh Sorensen said the tourist market from Hong Kong was about 90 per cent down on last year.
"There's an impact out of Japan, although it's much smaller - we're probably seeing a 25 per cent downturn out from Japan at the moment," he said.
"We're having a downturn to a lesser extent due to a combination of SARS and the war from some of our long-haul markets."
Tourist operators are hoping a strong domestic market will offset some of the overseas losses.
If the SARS scare continued for the next few months, the city would suffer, Mr Sorensen said.
"There'll be a flow-on to other areas - something like 40 to 50 per cent of the economy in this region is affected by tourism," he said.
By Jordan Baker
April 23, 2003
THE deadly SARS outbreak has forced Australian Airlines to cut direct services between Asia and the tourist city of Cairns in north Queensland.
The decision is a major blow for the city, which is already suffering a massive dengue fever outbreak and a tourism downturn due to the war in Iraq.
The Qantas subsidiary has been flying direct from Cairns to Nagoya, Osaka and Fukuoka in Japan, and to Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei for less than six months.
But the Cairns-Taipei route has been suspended from May 7 to June 30, and Cairns-Hong Kong flights have been cut from three to one a week until May 27.
Chief executive Denis Adams said the decision was taken in response to a drop in demand for air travel, particularly throughout Asia.
"As a result (of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) our forward booking has been affected," he said.
The changes were temporary, Mr Adams said.
Tropical Tourism North Queensland spokesman Leigh Sorensen said the tourist market from Hong Kong was about 90 per cent down on last year.
"There's an impact out of Japan, although it's much smaller - we're probably seeing a 25 per cent downturn out from Japan at the moment," he said.
"We're having a downturn to a lesser extent due to a combination of SARS and the war from some of our long-haul markets."
Tourist operators are hoping a strong domestic market will offset some of the overseas losses.
If the SARS scare continued for the next few months, the city would suffer, Mr Sorensen said.
"There'll be a flow-on to other areas - something like 40 to 50 per cent of the economy in this region is affected by tourism," he said.
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Thurs "The Australian"
Airline slashes services
By Jason Gregory
April 24, 2003
AUSTRALIAN Airlines has cut flights and encouraged staff to take holidays after the SARS crisis cut bookings by 60 per cent during the past week.
It emerged yesterday that the severe acute respiratory syndrome crisis, which has caused massive damage to some Asian carriers, including Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, also had hit Cairns-based Australian Airlines.
Airline chief executive Denis Adams said the carrier had slashed services to Hong Kong, suspended all flights to Taipei and amalgamated their Osaka and Fukuoka services because of "external forces beyond our wildest imagination".
The airline, which began in Cairns on October 27 last year, has gone into damage control with the temporary cutbacks since last week when fewer leisure passengers from Asia were detected.
The carrier is principally an inbound airline and relies on the inbound leisure market for up to 90 per cent of its business.
"We began to have very ordinary numbers all through last week and the bookings are dropping away quickly," Mr Adams said.
"Through watching what was happening with the other airlines we were expecting a setback, but perhaps not this big. As we were leisure market-orientated, we were probably insulated early on."
Most aircraft operated by the airline are flying half as many trips.
Mr Adams, who yesterday met graduating staff in Cairns after they completed a 5½ week training program, said there would be no reduction in employee numbers.
However some staff would take leave and others would be moved from flying to training courses in coming months.
Mr Adams said the airline was on a growth path and was adding destinations, including Sydney and Bali, in July.
Airlines with core Asian business also have been hammered in the past four weeks as a consequence of SARS with Cathay Pacific reporting to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange the airline could report heavy losses from the virus.
Qantas Airways has been forced to slash 1400 staff and Japan Airlines has cancelled some services to and from the region.
Air New Zealand yesterday announced further SARS-related cancellations to some routes during May and June.
It also warned that the current world airline industry environment "clearly remains extremely volatile".
===========================================
Airline slashes services
By Jason Gregory
April 24, 2003
AUSTRALIAN Airlines has cut flights and encouraged staff to take holidays after the SARS crisis cut bookings by 60 per cent during the past week.
It emerged yesterday that the severe acute respiratory syndrome crisis, which has caused massive damage to some Asian carriers, including Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, also had hit Cairns-based Australian Airlines.
Airline chief executive Denis Adams said the carrier had slashed services to Hong Kong, suspended all flights to Taipei and amalgamated their Osaka and Fukuoka services because of "external forces beyond our wildest imagination".
The airline, which began in Cairns on October 27 last year, has gone into damage control with the temporary cutbacks since last week when fewer leisure passengers from Asia were detected.
The carrier is principally an inbound airline and relies on the inbound leisure market for up to 90 per cent of its business.
"We began to have very ordinary numbers all through last week and the bookings are dropping away quickly," Mr Adams said.
"Through watching what was happening with the other airlines we were expecting a setback, but perhaps not this big. As we were leisure market-orientated, we were probably insulated early on."
Most aircraft operated by the airline are flying half as many trips.
Mr Adams, who yesterday met graduating staff in Cairns after they completed a 5½ week training program, said there would be no reduction in employee numbers.
However some staff would take leave and others would be moved from flying to training courses in coming months.
Mr Adams said the airline was on a growth path and was adding destinations, including Sydney and Bali, in July.
Airlines with core Asian business also have been hammered in the past four weeks as a consequence of SARS with Cathay Pacific reporting to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange the airline could report heavy losses from the virus.
Qantas Airways has been forced to slash 1400 staff and Japan Airlines has cancelled some services to and from the region.
Air New Zealand yesterday announced further SARS-related cancellations to some routes during May and June.
It also warned that the current world airline industry environment "clearly remains extremely volatile".
===========================================
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Fri "Sydney Morning Herald"
SARS could be worse than AIDS: expert
April 25 2003
The SARS virus could turn out to be more devastating than AIDS, a British health expert has warned.
Dr Patrick Dixon, an AIDS and global trends specialist at the London Business School, warned that, on current trends, there could be one billion cases of SARS within 60 weeks.
Comparing it to the flu pandemic of 1918-1919 that killed 30 million people, Dr Dixon called for urgent action before SARS killed tens of millions of people.
"We are in an urgent race to prevent a global SARS catastrophe, with cases doubling every two weeks and a 25 per cent chance that we are already too late to stop uncontrolled, explosive spread, possibly leading to many tens of millions of deaths," Dr Dixon told British newspaper the Daily Express.
"This is not a yuppie disease contracted by air travellers. That is a pathetic reaction that will put the whole world at risk."
AIDS had infected 80 million people over the past 15 to 20 years, but SARS was more easily spread, he said.
"AIDS spreads slowly. But this is different, we don't have the time. This is a far more serious epidemic potentially than AIDS," he said.
SARS has killed at least 252 people and infected nearly 4300 in 25 countries since November 16.
AAP
SARS could be worse than AIDS: expert
April 25 2003
The SARS virus could turn out to be more devastating than AIDS, a British health expert has warned.
Dr Patrick Dixon, an AIDS and global trends specialist at the London Business School, warned that, on current trends, there could be one billion cases of SARS within 60 weeks.
Comparing it to the flu pandemic of 1918-1919 that killed 30 million people, Dr Dixon called for urgent action before SARS killed tens of millions of people.
"We are in an urgent race to prevent a global SARS catastrophe, with cases doubling every two weeks and a 25 per cent chance that we are already too late to stop uncontrolled, explosive spread, possibly leading to many tens of millions of deaths," Dr Dixon told British newspaper the Daily Express.
"This is not a yuppie disease contracted by air travellers. That is a pathetic reaction that will put the whole world at risk."
AIDS had infected 80 million people over the past 15 to 20 years, but SARS was more easily spread, he said.
"AIDS spreads slowly. But this is different, we don't have the time. This is a far more serious epidemic potentially than AIDS," he said.
SARS has killed at least 252 people and infected nearly 4300 in 25 countries since November 16.
AAP