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SARS the "threat"

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Old 4th Apr 2003, 15:18
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flyboy6876

Yes the flue does kill more Australian per year (2000) than SARS but the mortality rate for the flue is only 0.05%. This is very low. If SARS, with a mortality rate of 3.75%, (which the flue had during the great flue epidemics) should get a foothold in Australia and then get out of control, potentially 150,000 people could die. Now should you be worried about that yet? No. Should you be taking precautions to protect yourself? You bet. I live in Hong Kong, which is the largest hotspot for this thing out side Mainland China. People here are taking this thing very seriously. Hopefully because of all the measures taken here in the last week or so we will see a stabilization in the number of cases, currently about 700. The big question is what is happening on the Mainland. The Central Peoples Government is still keeping the general population in the dark. The media isn’t allowed to report on the thing and people could be dropping like flies over there and we would never know about it. China has known about this thing since November but failed to come clean with the rest of the world until just the other day. Maybe they should now have the balls to come clean with there own population so they can protect themselves.

Oh and I forgot to mention that one of the jobs of any government’s chief medical advisers is to stop mass panic in the population. This could make a bad situation worse. So I would take what he said with a grain of salt. Have a talk with you own family doctor. He or she might put all this into prospective for you. They will tell you not to worry about SARS but you should take some simple precautions.

Last edited by 404 Titan; 4th Apr 2003 at 15:37.
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Old 4th Apr 2003, 15:34
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404 Titan

I'm not knocking what you have said, but it seems its very early to say whether the mortality rate will continue the same way as it is at the moment.

I've seen the effects of a cholera outbreak and I was in Uganda during the Ebola outbreak that they had there, so am aware of the possibility of mass infections.
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Old 4th Apr 2003, 16:00
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flyboy6876

Maybe the mortality rate will drop as time goes on and they find better ways to treat SARS. At the moment the mortality rate in Hong Kong is about 2.3%. In China I believe from what I have heard it is 3.9%. I think a lot of this has to do with the quality of the health care. Hopefully we won’t see an explosion of this thing in China as the Government over there continues to keep the people in the dark. After all knowledge is our greatest weapon.
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Old 4th Apr 2003, 20:54
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404 titan and co including the paranoid media should get this all in perspective.

I live and work in the so called dangerzone Quandong Province and have done for a long time. This viral pnuemonic outbreak has been public knowledge here since early January where it arose in Quanghzou there was no cover up and it was out in the media and press.

Personally I feel I have more chance of being mortally stricken by and out of control tricycle or manic Chinaman in a motor vehicle than copping a dose of SARS, as usual here whilst it is an extremely serious situation no doubt, we have the media doing it's usual paranoia beat up distorting the facts to suit a good story.

ie: Never let the truth ruin a good story.
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Old 5th Apr 2003, 09:42
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sniffer dog

I think you should have a close read of my previous posts. You will find I am not paranoid, i.e.

Now should you be worried about that (SARS)yet? No. Should you be taking precautions to protect yourself? You bet.
My posts have been highlighting the mortality rate of this thing, not the chances of catching it. I am the first to admit that the chance of catching SARS is very very low at present. I also usually don’t have much time for the media but this time maybe the paranoid reporting they have been conducting has avoided a much worse disaster from happening. It certainly has made it socially unacceptable to do some of the public habits people here in Hong Kong have been renowned for. As I said before, knowledge is our greatest weapon.
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Old 5th Apr 2003, 12:20
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Cool

Not good enough, nor necessary.

On second thoughts off to the bin with you for a while.

Last edited by Woomera; 5th Apr 2003 at 19:26.
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Old 5th Apr 2003, 13:37
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Lightbulb

Some of the more gung-ho posters here should perhaps be sending their thoughts to the WHO, or the US Government, which has now declared SARS a quarantinable illness.

The point is not, as sniffer dog says, "Personally I feel I have more chance of being mortally stricken by and out of control tricycle or manic Chinaman in a motor vehicle than copping a dose of SARS..", but more that there is now a NEW serious sickness adding to the list of other serious illnesses, meaning whereas before you had whatever percentage of contracting the usual influenza, etc, ANOTHER one is floating around, and according to reports, a fairly contagious one.

It would only be a fool who didn't take ACTIVE preventitive steps having been TOLD the facts!

BTW, I see that Royal Brunei are now operating with recirc fans off.
IMO, a good precaution for all of us to take in trying to play an ACTIVE role in preventing the further spread of SARS at this time.
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Old 5th Apr 2003, 19:23
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According to Department of Health figures today, the case fatality rate is low, at 2.3% (17 deaths out of 734 in Hong Kong). 65% of the deaths occurred in those aged 60 and above, and 82% occurred in those with chronic illnesses. The majority of patients showed positive response to the new treatment protocols while about 12% needed Intensive Care Unit care. Effective treatment is available which are 80-90% effective using a combination of Ribavirin, an anti-viral medication and steroid. The overall estimated death rate is 0.33 per 100,000 population for SRS in 2003 (until April 1, 2003). The death rate for regular community acquired pneumonia, by comparison, was 43.1 per 100,000 in 2002 and 40.6 per 100,000 population in 2001.
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Old 6th Apr 2003, 10:20
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Angry

Talk about Panic!

Courtesy of the HK Govt. Statistician:

The average Hong Konger has as much chance of dying of SARS as a US citizen has of being killed by a tornado! There is also more chance of bieng killed in a car accident than dying of this thing.

Yes, it has been mishandled initially by several Govt.s in Asia but if this "PANIC" spreads to OZ (you would already have difficulty in buying a surgical mask in most cities) Tourism & business travel will be dead along with all our jobs.

It is already happening in Asia bigtime. The effect is an order of magnitude bigger than the war.

This bug has been around for about 2 months now and not one Cathay or Dragonair crewmember has caught it.

WHO only recommends masks if you are a health worker dealing with SARS patients. The rest of us should just practice good personal hygeine.
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Old 6th Apr 2003, 11:11
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To "The Messaih and D.Laminton" precisely my point lets keep this whole thing in perspective.

More people still die from influenza around the world per capita than SARS at present, this may turn out to be an add on we permanently live with around the world like we have been living with influenza for centuries.

Just checkout <www.news.com.au> to see the paranoia in the Australian press at present, some Proffessor has been quoted as saying: "The disease is entrenched in China"

WHAT A LOAD OF BS - MORE MEDIA HYPE!

And as 404 Titan says the disgusting habits of the masses on the streets here leave a lot to be desired, if anything it may be the start of a massive crackdown to sort them out and to swallow their "goolies" instead of flinging them to the wind. I dread the thought of wearing one from a passing bus - so far good.

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Old 7th Apr 2003, 13:12
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Recirc fans??????

I always have a quiet laugh to myself whenever I come across a pilot or pilots waxing on about how much they know about the engineering aspects of their aircraft as if they personally designed it. Invariably they are proved wrong and the cliche of a little knowledge is further reinforced. The latest advice is that turning the recirc. fans off is even a worse thing to do as this bypasses the filters which actually have a chance of reducing nasties in the air( on the 744 anyway) . Personally while I think the chances are small of catching SARS is small, and the chance of dying is even less, it is undeniable mathematically that the general risk of catching something is now increased. Still the most dangerous aspect of the job is driving to work followed by the walk around.
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Old 7th Apr 2003, 15:57
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..the cliche of a little knowledge is further reinforced
The latest advice is that turning the recirc. fans off is even a worse thing to do as this bypasses the filters which actually have a chance of reducing nasties in the air
If the recirc. (recirculation) fans are switched to "OFF" then only "new" air will enter the aircraft, ie. air that has come directly from either the high or low stage (or combination) bleeds - this air is inducted directly from outside, cooled, filtered and heated before being pumped into the aeroplane and then dumped overboard.

With the recirc. fans switched "ON", air is re-cycled rather than being dumped overboard, and hence the need to filter it AGAIN - but with different filters to those used in the first process described.

The reason for recirculation fans is as a fuel (cost) saving exercise, the RECYCLED air has already been heated and reduces the demand on the aircon packs and therefore the engine bleed systems, hence with recirc. fans OFF, fuel burnoff will increase marginally.
A small price to pay for a little extra protection against a new virus that is, as yet, fully understood by the medical professionals.
Let alone pilots!!

"An ounce of prevention is far cheaper than a pound of cure."
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Old 7th Apr 2003, 18:10
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SARS will kill airline jobs not the actual people. With the current war and the million or so suicide bombers lurking around wanting pay back, one can only hope for the best. Might be quite good to have an alternative source of income ready.
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Old 7th Apr 2003, 19:47
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Dragonair are cancelling heaps of flights PEKHKG.

Just picked up one for a client tomorrow at 1320 local ex HKG.

He now has to stay another night in order to complete his business as time is now too short to get the alternate flight.

That is the 3rd cancellation on one day on a busy route.

It can only get worse unles a handle is firmly grabbed on this thing.

Getting flashbacks of the bug in Steven Kings "The Stand".

It was nicknamed Captain Trips.

How unfortunately close to the mark.

Best all

EWL
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Old 8th Apr 2003, 08:37
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Tues "The Australian"

Hong Kong fears 3000 SARS cases
By Glenda Korporaal, Clara Pirani and Helen Tobler
April 08, 2003

HONG Kong hospitals are bracing for a possible tripling of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome by the end of the month as the world wide death toll from the virus rose yesterday to 100.

Hong Kong's Hospital Authority chairman, Leong Che-hung, said the city's hospitals were preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 3000 SARS patients.

By yesterday, Hong Kong had reported 842 cases of SARS and 23 deaths, including six over the weekend.

China disclosed yesterday its official toll of 53 included areas where fatalities previously hadn't been reported – with deaths in the provinces of Shanxi in the north, Sichuan in the west and Hunan in central China. Until yesterday reported fatalities had been largely confined to the suspected original site of the outbreak, the southern Guangdong province, and Beijing.

Dr Leong said on Hong Kong television that the authority had projected a worst-case scenario of 1800 to 3000 patients by the end of the month.

While Dr Leong said there would be sufficient manpower and facilities to deal with the patients, he admitted that the intensive care wards would come under heavy pressure if the worst eventuated.

The warning comes as Hong Kong scientists claim they have developed two tests for SARS, which they have passed on to the World Health Organisation.

Scientists at Hong Kong University say they are now working on more refined tests, which detect the virus at an earlier stage. University researcher Leo Poon said the first test, developed a few weeks ago, involved using SARS antibodies to test the blood cells of a sick patient.

However, Australian doctors say they have not received any test to diagnose the virus.

Communicable Diseases Network Australia acting chair Vicki Krause said patients were assessed through a process of elimination.

"There's still not a definitive test, so it is still a syndrome exclusion – meaning we test for other more common entities, like influenza A or B and other atypical pneumonias," Dr Krause said.

Director of infectious diseases and microbiology at Canberra Hospital, Peter Collignon, said a reliable diagnostic test probably would be several months away. Viral infections are very difficult to diagnose and, even once the SARS virus had been identified, producing a reliable diagnostic test in large quantities would take time, Professor Collignon said.

SARS was listed yesterday as a quarantinable disease under the Commonwealth Quarantine Act in Australia, allowing Customs officials to isolate anyone with symptoms and detain any suspected patients who refuse treatment.

In the past 24 hours, 15 airline passengers in Australia have been assessed at airports, but all were cleared.

Two people in Australia are under investigation – a two-year-old girl from Vietnam, in Victoria and a nine-year-old boy in NSW.

The three children of the Hogarth family and a 30-year-old woman, all in Victoria, were cleared yesterday of the virus.
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Old 8th Apr 2003, 12:09
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AFP

Tuesday April 8, 13:37 PM AEST
Cathay Pacific facing worst crisis in 26 years over SARS : chief

Just one month after announcing bumper profits, Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific Airways warned it was facing its gravest situation in 26 years because of the SARS virus and war in Iraq.

In a letter to staff published by in-house magazine CXWorld, chief executive David Turnbull said the company had already cut 25 percent of flights and expected the number to rise to one third.

"Cathay Pacific has now entered its most dangerous time in terms of its commercial future in the 26 years I have been in the company," Turnbull wrote.

"Over the last six years we have weathered many storms, but the combination of atypical pneumonia and the war in the Middle East has annihilated our passenger bookings."

Cathay last week announced what it said was a temporary reduction of flights to nine destinations in Asia as demand for seats into Hong Kong collapsed as the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the territory worsened.

Hundreds of flights in and out of Hong Kong have been cancelled since the World Health Organisation last week advised against unnecessary travel to the territory and Guangdong province of southern China.

On Monday alone, 124 flights -- 24 percent of all traffic -- were cancelled.

The illness has killed more than 100 people around the world, including 23 in Hong Kong where it has also infected nearly 900 people.

"Tourism confidence in Hong Kong has been shattered and it will take some time to rebuild after things have settled down," Turnbull said.

The turnaround in the airline's fortunes has been dramatic. On March 5 Cathay announced a six-fold increase in net profits for 2002 to 511 million dollars in trading conditions many airlines around the world found difficult.

As health global authorities try to stem growing anxiety over the SARS virus and the search for a cure continued, Turnbull warned the airline faced longer term worries from the fall-out of the Iraq war.

"We must be mindful of the fact that the war in the Middle East could result in a more fundamental long-term general recession," he wrote.
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Old 8th Apr 2003, 13:32
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Thanks for the engineering lecture Kaptin. Shall I cut and print it to send to Boeing? I reiterate-manufacturers advice for the 744 is to leave recirc. fans on. I reckon Boeing are pretty touchy at the moment with all the litigation and problems they face with fuel pumps etc., so I suspect some thought has gone into this. So for now, as always, I will follow the specialists advice. When they cant tell me what to do I shall ask you.
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Old 9th Apr 2003, 11:59
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Walter I tend to agree with Kaptin M. As far as I know the recirc fans are only there for fuel saving. I've not flown 744s but on other Boeing models you can dispatch with both the recirc fans U/S.
Perhaps someone with a DDG or min equip list for the 744 could let us know if it is possible to dispatch with all recirc fans U/S.
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Old 9th Apr 2003, 20:11
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Dear Walter Mitty you are a Wally, There is no filter on earth that
can filter out a virus, even your sharp eyes can't see them without an electron microscope.So the smart thing to do is turn
the recirc fans off and increase the rate of fresh air exchange.
Boeing are the motherlode of knowledge, but advice from them is
deeply biased by legal and liability issues. Think, don't just accept
anything fed to you. The cemetaries are full of doctor's and experts of all descriptions who knew everything.
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Old 9th Apr 2003, 21:20
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Just to put a few minds at rest, the corporate passenger (in our case at least) is still flying.

That is the high yield end of the market, and quite a few are upgrading to J in the hope that the Airlines are actually reducing the use of recirc fans and due to the fact that the aircon flows nose to tail. If Airlines made such a policy, and then made it public (without the front to rear info which would make the aeroplane untrimmable) they would definitely minimise their exposure to losses.

I have a sneaking feeling that the Loco bloke and family may have had a little dance with this nasty bug over 3 years ago in LA - hit me at dinner one night and I simply pulled out and went to bed, Next morning called the "Hotel Docs" and was running a 103.9 fever (on the edge of convulsions) and could only sleep sitting up due to fluid on lungs - no feeling in fingertips and sweating like a pig. Very sick puppy.

Being offloaded at LAX due to a QF HBA error didnt help and during a 3 day layover trying to get out at the Holiday Inn LAX (nice hotel with the best view in the world of LAX short finals) the family came down with it too. Took over a month to get over it.

Unfortunately I think we probably infected 90% of the 744 on the way back with me and Mrs Loco in lower deck J class and one boy one either side of the aeroplane in the front of Y stretched out across 3 seats each.

I have never been that ill in my life and didnt even want a beer. That is tragic!!

Back to my alleged contribution to the thread, the high yield stuff seems to still be flying. The filler - the icing on the cake is nervous.

Airlines are very opportunistic, and can and will use such a scare to downsize workforces. Wach this space - it will happen.

Be careful out there

Best all

EWL
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