much of world reopening in March 2021
Man Bilong Balus long PNG
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My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate.
And if you want to factor in unconfirmed & asymptomatic cases then you need to do it for both.
When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?
In 2019 it was estimated that there were 29 000 people with HIV in Australia with new infections running at around 800 per year. Back in the 1980s, AIDS was a virtual death sentence, now it’s under control. We learnt to live with it and treatments were developed.
COVID will be the same and we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations, at least for the next few years. Travel passes will be needed to fly internationally, possibly with some degree of tracking. Social distancing will be the new normal, hygiene levels will be increased and contactless will be the way of doing things as far as possible.
I get my second jab this weekend and whilst I will still have regular testing it will be less frequent. I fully expect to get vaccinated again in 12 months with the vaccine optimised for the new strains that emerged since my last dose.
Around the middle of the year, enough people will have been inoculated in developed countries for there to be a semblance of normality and an easing of restrictions.
COVID will be the same and we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations, at least for the next few years. Travel passes will be needed to fly internationally, possibly with some degree of tracking. Social distancing will be the new normal, hygiene levels will be increased and contactless will be the way of doing things as far as possible.
I get my second jab this weekend and whilst I will still have regular testing it will be less frequent. I fully expect to get vaccinated again in 12 months with the vaccine optimised for the new strains that emerged since my last dose.
Around the middle of the year, enough people will have been inoculated in developed countries for there to be a semblance of normality and an easing of restrictions.
UK average yearly flu deaths 600-13000
UK Covid deaths in 11 months 108,000
France average yearly flu deaths 10,000-15,000
France Covid deaths in 11.5 months 77,000
US average yearly flu deaths 12,000-51,000
US Covid deaths in 11.5 months 457,000
All that information is readily available.
Covid deaths...how are they defined? If I have terminal cancer and die WITH Covid is that a Covid death? Lots of grey wiggly areas there.
When was the last time it was reported? That is how you would know and remember it.
How often are suicide figures reported in Australia? How often are road deaths reported? Which number is bigger?
Spoiler alert: Road deaths for Australia 2020 just under 1100. Suicide deaths Australia 2020: 3300
When was the last time that you can remember 700+ influenza deaths in Victoria over an eight week period while at the same time everyone was in lockdown?
How often are suicide figures reported in Australia? How often are road deaths reported? Which number is bigger?
Spoiler alert: Road deaths for Australia 2020 just under 1100. Suicide deaths Australia 2020: 3300
And you think that the bulk of the 700 were all at deaths door and would have died within days anyway?
If your argument relies on grey wiggly area then I'll let you have a few sq cms.
Lots? Definitely not.
INTERNATIONAL GUIDELINES FOR CERTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION (CODING) OF COVID-19 AS CAUSE OF DEATH
Debunking the conspiracies that if you test positive for Covid and then die in a car crash your death will be recorded as a Covid death. If you have terminal cancer and die with Covid? Was it Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome or Pneumonia bought on by Covid that contributed to your death? Then yes Covid will be listed as an underlying factor. If not then it won't.
C'mon you need to start looking up facts yourself and not ask questions that hint at baseless conspiracies. Rational answers are all out there if you bother to look.
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Dr Dre,
Extract from the document you attached
"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Covid deaths are being over reported as a result of this - during the height of the first wave, any death with any COVID symptoms had the head sealed, body bagged and removed for interment, NO autopsy.
My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.
Extract from the document you attached
"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Covid deaths are being over reported as a result of this - during the height of the first wave, any death with any COVID symptoms had the head sealed, body bagged and removed for interment, NO autopsy.
My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.
I think you’ve lost Icarus
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Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.
Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.
It does not include people who died more than 28 days after testing positive - even if those people spent that entire period in hospital and had Covid-19 marked on their death certificate. It also excludes anyone who did not have a positive Covid-19 test. Because of this, it undercounts the number of Covid-19 deaths that occurred during the first months of the pandemic, when only a minority of people were being tested.
Why the UK’s Covid death toll has passed 100,000 a second time
I think you’ve lost Icarus
As I said above, the media just love reporting road deaths, they are all over it. Suicide deaths are three times as many. Silence. Which is the bigger problem? Accidents due to fatigue and stupidity or people choosing to take their own life. I know my thoughts. Now apply that media bias philosophy to Covid coverage.
Man Bilong Balus long PNG
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Looking forward to returning to Japan soon but in the meantime continuing the never ending search for a bad bottle of Red!
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Extract from the document you attached
"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
"COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death."
Using death certificates is the more comprehensive and reliable measure of the impact of Covid-19. This is because it counts every single death that has involved coronavirus in the UK. It is a more accurate indicator of what might have led to someone’s death, rather than a rule based simply on the number of days since a positive test. By contrast, the government’s method of only counting deaths with 28 days of a positive test is less comprehensive.
Please don't go "guessing" just to justify your argument. Its disingenuous to guess when you are debating. All the scientific modelling I've seen by puts the IFR towards 1%. That makes your guess 400% WRONG. Its guesses like that which end up on social media (you know, the place where everybody can be an scientist) and before you know it it becomes a Karen/Ken fact. Confirmed cases are open to too many inconsistencies.
However I was not referring to my argument,
I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.
COVID Far More Lethal Than Flu, Data Shows
As further proof this isn't a "bad flu season" check out the video in this link:
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I think you’ve lost Icarus
My better half is a 26 year paramedic in the London Ambulance service and is not prone to hyperbole.
FACT: There are financial incentives to hospitals in some countries for reported covid deaths.
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Thanks for your advice about guessing. It is most assuredly correct.
However I was not referring to my argument,
I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.
However I was not referring to my argument,
I was referring to Icarus who said "My impression is that it is going to be not much higher than an influenza death rate."
You see, his impression is just a guess.
And you need to question that scientific modelling is no more accurate than your over-inflated and quite misleading percentage? Is that what you are really thinking? If so, this is the big problem with social media and forums. We don't actually need anybody in the the science arena anymore. Sack all the experts and obtain our facts from self appointed forum experts.