QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

[Keg]

6 are re-furbed and I think some of them have the 12 year check also. Not sure how many

I’m not sure if the gear needs to be replaced or just needs to be swung on the ground before it can be put back into service. It probably means a gear down hop across the hills from Victorville to LAX when the time comes to get it going again. The good news is that will count as a recency sector to get someone back up to speed.

[kiwi grey]

Simple Flying is reporting "Qantas CEO Refuses To Rule Out The A380’s Return"
----- quote -----
Speaking today at EuroControl‘s Aviation StraightTalk Live, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce refused to rule out a return to service for the Australian flag carrier’s A380 fleet. He stated “We do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft.”
----- end quote -----
So he's saying that some of them might come back.

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

[1A_Please]

Originally Posted by kiwi grey

Simple Flying is reporting "Qantas CEO Refuses To Rule Out The A380’s Return"
----- quote -----
Speaking today at EuroControl‘s Aviation StraightTalk Live, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce refused to rule out a return to service for the Australian flag carrier’s A380 fleet. He stated “We do think, if you look at the Qantas network, there are going to be opportunities to deploy those aircraft.”
----- end quote -----
So he's saying that some of them might come back.

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

IN theory, yes but in practice, no. You can't stand down people forever and effectively starve them out of the business. At some point, someone will put forward a constructive dismissal claim against QF and will probably succeed. When that happens, QF will have no choice but to make these positions redundant and pay out the affected staff.

[ruprecht]

Originally Posted by kiwi grey

Of course, that may be just to avoid triggering a RIN -> downgrade - > retrain -> CR avalanche.
If he says the A380s might be coming back, he can just keep the A380 pilots on unpaid furlough indefinitely, can't he?

Precisely.

I think Qantas are trying to ‘run down the clock’ here. By deferring the announcement on the fate of the A380, they are hoping to keep the crew stood down under the assumption that they’re coming back someday.

My gut feeling? The A380 isn’t coming back, and a RIN will be run when the demise of the A380 is announced in 2023.

[Telfer86]

There won't be any retraining of A380/747 crew to other types , displacements of those less senior on 330/787 - it won't happen

There is a lot of luck that as to where one is placed when Covid hit , those who just upgraded to SH lhs/rhs win

The professional SO/FO cohorts on LH lose , especially those on the 380/747

Don't think CR will come to those at top of LH list on 380 etc, there aren't going to be any 100 week payouts

Possibly another VR , that will be exactly the same as last time

Maybe a CR from bottom of list before August this year , won't affect those who took lwop - that's 250 there

Coupled with retirements , loss of medical , VR that will get numbers down to somewhere where they need to be

International at zero % right now & will likely be same number in 12 months

Very challenging & unfortunate for everyone but if Brendan Murphy says he doesn't like to predict more than three
months out , how an earth is anyone at QF going to know more than Murphy ?

[OnceBitten]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Please don’t feed the troll.

[The_Equaliser]

There is currently a globally declared pandemic in full flight through most of the world. Medical and political thought indicates that international travel is dead for 2021 at least. The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment. They may need to read the room.

[Tucknroll]

Originally Posted by The_Equaliser

There is currently a globally declared pandemic in full flight through most of the world. Medical and political thought indicates that international travel is dead for 2021 at least. The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment. They may need to read the room.

Which rooms are you referring to? The rooms in QCC full of managers and office workers on full pay? Or the rooms in the terminal which are now filled with outsourced workers? Perhaps you might be referring to the flight training rooms at Network, which are full of new hire short haul crew while mainline pilots are stood down unpaid?

I think the new Exec at AIPA will be more than capable of reading the room just fine. Hell, they may even listen to the room full of other CoM members.

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by The_Equaliser

The incoming AIPA crew may be optimistic in thinking their aggressive IR strategy may be appropriate or well received in the current environment.

They really don’t have any options. EBA negotiations are years away. They can attempt to challenge the legal status of the stand downs, but the ALAEA tried and failed. Courts found stand downs can occur until the pandemic is over.

What else can they do, pressure the government for more assistance? Run a media campaign? Any unauthorised industrial action will be met with a ton of bricks from a conservative government and business oriented FWA.

[Transition Layer]

Originally Posted by dr dre

They really don’t have any options. EBA negotiations are years away. They can attempt to challenge the legal status of the stand downs, but the ALAEA tried and failed. Courts found stand downs can occur until the pandemic is over.

What else can they do, pressure the government for more assistance? Run a media campaign? Any unauthorised industrial action will be met with a ton of bricks from a conservative government and business oriented FWA.

When is the pandemic “over”? Please do tell!

At some point between now and then, there needs to be a gradual return to full or part-time employment for all QF pilots. It’s not a sudden flick of a switch.

[Fonz121]

“Theoretically speaking, an infection becomes endemic if on average each infected individual transmits it to one other person. In other words, when the reproduction number (R) = 1. In comparison, during an epidemic when the spread of the disease is increasing, R is more than 1, and when the spread is decreasing through control measures or population immunity, R is less than 1.”




https://theconversation.com/covid-19...t-means-146435

[kiwi grey]

Originally Posted by ruprecht

I think Qantas are trying to ‘run down the clock’ here. By deferring the announcement on the fate of the A380, they are hoping to keep the crew stood down under the assumption that they’re coming back someday.

My gut feeling? The A380 isn’t coming back, and a RIN will be run when the demise of the A380 is announced in 2023.

And the longer the story (possibly already thought to be a fiction) that the A380 will be back can be run, the longer the expensive effects of the RIN can be averted

[dr dre]

Originally Posted by Transition Layer

When is the pandemic “over”? Please do tell!

When it no longer qualifies as one. It’s fluid, depends on levels of strain of health systems, amount of restrictions on movement, levels of immunisation etc. On an international scale it won’t be until sufficient levels of immunisation are reached, the situation is mixed, even some first world countries haven’t immunised to a great extent.

It’s not just the status of the pandemic, the Federal Court in the ALAEA case found four factors which triggered the stand downs:

(i) the collapse in passenger travel;
(ii) measures implemented domestically and internationally to restrict movement;
(iii) the increasing concern that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be sustained; and
(iv) uncertainty as to how long the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would last,

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Originally Posted by dr dre

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

What rubbish - pre pandemic, aviation was in a boom time - billion dollar profits etc. Can’t tell me any court in the land would say until that returns, stand downs are justified / legal.

Getting a little tired of the rhetoric.

[Props _are_for_boats]

Originally Posted by ScepticalOptomist

What rubbish - pre pandemic, aviation was in a boom time - billion dollar profits etc. Can’t tell me any court in the land would say until that returns, stand downs are justified / legal.

Getting a little tired of the rhetoric.

wish there was a like button

[Keg]

Originally Posted by dr dre

It might be a case of waiting until passenger numbers return to near pre pandemic levels before the justification for stand downs is no longer there. The union are free to challenge legally, but when it comes to court cases history has shown judges generally side with only one party in these disputes.

If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and it’ll be a moot point anyway.

[Angle of Attack]

They will keep stand downs ongoing until they feel like it, that’s the unfortunate truth. So if your on a Longhaul fleet 3 more years until constant Stand up. You might not agree to it but unless your union challenges it that’s what will happen! Meanwhile contract companies will employ to take Domestic Services 😂

[Bug Smasher Smasher]

Originally Posted by Keg

If international borders are open then the lack of demand (even though initially Covid induced) starts to look more like a commercial issue. Much harder to argue for stand downs under that situation- particularly when the LHEA has a mechanism to deal with surpluses on fleets.

Then again, if borders are open then my guess is demand will be returning and it’ll be a moot point anyway.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in short haul.

[Keg]

We saw in November and December that demand returned very quickly. Of course the snap border closures just prior to Christmas have had an adverse impact on sentiment with people concerned they’ll be locked out of their state with only hours notice. Those sorts of things are still within what FWA have said are legit reasons for stand down.

Internationally a post vaccine world with open borders is a very different context to what is occurring domestically at the moment.

As an aside I think the forecast is for all 737 crew to be stood up by about April/ May? (Dependent on state borders remaining open of course). Not sure. Missed that webinar earlier in the week.

[Ragnor]

The real test will be school holidays March/April hopefully the vaccine roll out is in full swing. The issue at the moment is confidence, there is none. JQ seen demand sky rocket in Nov/Dec now everything is open again the traveling public are sitting on their hands and the schedule is the same with no increase in sight.

All the talk about stand up, being busy again is all a dream at the moment, vaccine needs to start happening but I fear it could be to late for some. CR is sure to happen at QF, JQ and soon wether from the top middle or bottom I don’t know but it’s going to happen.