QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages
I'd love to be wrong but the recent history of QF (which to my mind predates Elaine) shows they will never do the 'right' thing when the cheaper option that screws everyone is available.
Even if it means holding the Govt of Australia and any others to ransom - see the shutdown. Wee Elaine is, after all, SUCH a BIG and IMPORTANT man.
Currently, as far as airlines go in Australia, they are in a pretty decent position to do just that. They are incompetent airline/business managers (though they would argue even more strongly now that they aren't) but they are very competent political managers and extremely adept at extracting cash for their own (personal) purposes. There is also a very strong overseas precedent of sacking anyone you can, that you must consider.
Comments like 'The FAAA are still in consultation about....' is a totally meaningless comment. How long did AIPA (to pick one example) have to sit through meetings of nothing month after month when record profits and a CEO getting $25m were in play?
To show my age and quote 'The Youmg Ones'; Qantas management are utter, UTTER BASTARDS. And totally incompetent business managers because they do NOT care about the company. They ONLY care about their OWN tenure and unbelievably lucrative salary package - which, I would like to point out, would not be replicated if they became redundant for any reason. Do not for a second think that anyone of junior management level and above will sacrifice a single dollar (or cent) of their own personal income to help the company (and far less, any employee). They simply don't understand the concept of company morale, nor what is the 'right' thing for the business. Qantas is nothing but a cash cow and anyone in management will sacrifice anyone else (not themselves, obviously) to ensure their personal financial survival.
Management know there will be a Govt backing for their own salary - as long as they cut costs. It's as clear to me (as it should be to anyone else) that Elaine and his management 'team' are worth the $50m++ to steer the company through this unprecedented period, but that doesn't leave much else for those left under them. The company is losing billions and existing on taxpayers funds. I just can't see very much money left for those doing the clearly minimal actual work... And ESPECIALLY (see comment above) those already marked for termination.
Even if it means holding the Govt of Australia and any others to ransom - see the shutdown. Wee Elaine is, after all, SUCH a BIG and IMPORTANT man.
Currently, as far as airlines go in Australia, they are in a pretty decent position to do just that. They are incompetent airline/business managers (though they would argue even more strongly now that they aren't) but they are very competent political managers and extremely adept at extracting cash for their own (personal) purposes. There is also a very strong overseas precedent of sacking anyone you can, that you must consider.
Comments like 'The FAAA are still in consultation about....' is a totally meaningless comment. How long did AIPA (to pick one example) have to sit through meetings of nothing month after month when record profits and a CEO getting $25m were in play?
To show my age and quote 'The Youmg Ones'; Qantas management are utter, UTTER BASTARDS. And totally incompetent business managers because they do NOT care about the company. They ONLY care about their OWN tenure and unbelievably lucrative salary package - which, I would like to point out, would not be replicated if they became redundant for any reason. Do not for a second think that anyone of junior management level and above will sacrifice a single dollar (or cent) of their own personal income to help the company (and far less, any employee). They simply don't understand the concept of company morale, nor what is the 'right' thing for the business. Qantas is nothing but a cash cow and anyone in management will sacrifice anyone else (not themselves, obviously) to ensure their personal financial survival.
Management know there will be a Govt backing for their own salary - as long as they cut costs. It's as clear to me (as it should be to anyone else) that Elaine and his management 'team' are worth the $50m++ to steer the company through this unprecedented period, but that doesn't leave much else for those left under them. The company is losing billions and existing on taxpayers funds. I just can't see very much money left for those doing the clearly minimal actual work... And ESPECIALLY (see comment above) those already marked for termination.
Last edited by V-Jet; 23rd Jun 2020 at 07:30. Reason: Grammar
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Alan did say back in April if it drags into next year there is going to be considerable pressure on the balance sheet, essentially the business will be broke. It’s obviously more clear now that this is likely to be the case. International will obviously drag as far as 2022. Domestic is going to be very patchy for the next half thanks to Victoria.
Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.
Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.
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Well let’s get some more detail on this announcement on Friday from those that seem to know on here lol. Are these redundancies voluntary? Are they compulsory? Are they for QAL or QCCA crew or both? Is it last on 1st off? What are the numbers?
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Alan did say back in April if it drags into next year there is going to be considerable pressure on the balance sheet, essentially the business will be broke. It’s obviously more clear now that this is likely to be the case. International will obviously drag as far as 2022. Domestic is going to be very patchy for the next half thanks to Victoria.
Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.
Remains to be seen how heavy the axe is going to drop on the International front. Looking at some of the others Emirates/BA it seems to be 30%.
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I’d guess no ECAMS, LH struggles to make more than a small profit at the best of times, with it in mothballs it will bleed far too heavily for even Domestic to make it up. Monday 29th will be the release after the ASX announcement, there may be some guidelines for when some of the LH aircraft are planned to start flying again, but I’d suggest prepare for thousands, if not 10 thousands to be made redundant across the whole business. You only have to look at pretty much every Airline anywhere and they are cutting back between 25-40%, it isn’t going to be any different at QF.
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60-80% is unrealistic if your talking group wide. Group level with International your talking 20-30% by Christmas. 50% Domestic might be realistic by December but it’s all just speculation. Nobody knows. If Victoria screws up again, then December becomes Easter.
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Times like this I wish I didn’t agree with all the posts above, but unfortunately this forum is being rational and considered. It’s very sad to see my brothers and sisters in an industry we all love in dire straits because of the invisible enemy.
The other issue is you need to think in terms of yield or revenue rather than capacity.
All seats are not equal. 1 business pax (even full fare Y) MEL-BNE-MEL is higher yield than a family of 4 deeply discounted Y MEL-YBCG-MEL.
So the answer will depend on which pax come back faster
All seats are not equal. 1 business pax (even full fare Y) MEL-BNE-MEL is higher yield than a family of 4 deeply discounted Y MEL-YBCG-MEL.
So the answer will depend on which pax come back faster
There has not been much fear spread around in terms of implications to the balance sheet, but I think it’s pretty clear, it’s going to be nasty. They can’t drag International along in the mud for the next three years, it will sink the whole operation.
Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.
Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.
A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.
Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.
Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.
A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.
Last edited by PoppaJo; 23rd Jun 2020 at 10:09.
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Well looking at the Newsroom with flight schedules they are planning 65-70% of Domestic capacity by October, of course that’s just the current plan, International I doubt there will be much at all this year, it really depends on the destination countries and they handle their outbreaks. Regardless I think the requirement to self isolate incoming international passengers into Australia is going to be around for an extremely long time, years probably.
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There has not been much fear spread around in terms of implications to the balance sheet, but I think it’s pretty clear, it’s going to be nasty. They can’t drag International along in the mud for the next three years, it will sink the whole operation.
Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.
Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.
A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.
Long Haul would be viable from next year, at what, a tenth of what it is today? Even if that. Jetstar 787 is dead.
Domestic wise, Jetstar carries a large amount of foreign travelers. A quarter to half of most of my flights are tourists. Won’t be seeing these guys in the same capacity for a few years. Not much different to the Corporate market over the fence, but could rebound sooner.
A rebounded QF Corporate Domestic Market can’t subsidize a slow rebounding Jetstar Leisure and Qantas LH forever.
Also, Aussies who would have otherwise travelled overseas going on holiday at home. Air New Zealand are seeing more demand to Queenstown domestically than this time last year. With a bit of luck (and the Melbourne situation being contained) we might be at that point in 2-3 months.
https://australianaviation.com.au/20...ity-from-2019/
Yes, there is no doubt a strong domestic market here in NZ. Ski fields and Queenstown hotel bookings in July are UP 5% on this time last year, Air NZ has added hundreds off flights and a couple of domestic cabin crew I know have had their redundancy notice cancelled. Kiwi’s spend $15 billion per year on overseas travel, they can’t do that now so even if a quarter of that is spent domestically then it won’t be all bad. Jetstar town hall last week said they expect Jetstar NZ to fly 100% domestic schedule in August. I think domestic in Australia and NZ could be quite vibrant, the question is how you deal with the lack of international.
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I would think middle management and other BS jobs will go first. Aussies traveling domestic will be higher than normal as long as borders open, when NZ let us in and vice versa we will also have FiJi. Plenty of bums on seats for NB operations.
WHAT I said was we have an EA that QF only agreed to a few months a go. Hell they pushed it!
Now they want to change it?
Infact they haven’t demanded anything yet. Everyone’s jumping to hand over conditions!
Why don’t we just wait and hear what they have to say at the end of the week?
I have ideas but I’m not going to offer them up before I hear what they have to say.
And everyone voted for it because the Sunrise Fleet HAD to be ordered by the end of March. Great to know those jets are on their way