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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

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QF Group possible Redundancy Numbers/Packages

Old 17th Jun 2020, 08:08
  #221 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
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Originally Posted by slats11 View Post
Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving the benefit of several lessons in high school math regarding exponential growth curves and log functions.

Anyway, that was a few months ago. I think the latest data suggests fairly strongly that we are further through this than we think, and that society overall will recover a bit faster than many think. Look at the ASX and NYSE.
Letís not forget that the ASX/DJI hit their all time highs in mid-late Feb AFTER the initial travel bans had been enacted and more importantly after many experts in the field had warned of the severe impact.

The stock market isnít the worst indicator of where things are going but itís far from the best.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 08:58
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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A vaccine to this point has never been successfully developed for any Coronavirus
Yes. Previous CV vaccine research ran into problems. Far from being protective, vaccinated animals did worse when subsequently exposed to the virus. In the end, SARS disappeared and CV vaccine research was shelved with some warnings for future potential researchers.

A vaccine is possible. Sure. A lot of $ are being thrown at this. But it remains highly speculative. As do any plans dependent on a vaccine.


Last edited by slats11; 17th Jun 2020 at 09:24.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 09:09
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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Assume no vaccine - it hasn't been done before

If people were to hazard a guess what do you think the numbers let go around the group would be ? or %

Will it be similar to NZ mainline around 30 % , they let go 380 then 100 more ? Qlink ? , Jetstar ?

If those who have to leave can be re-employed with other QF group airlines , well that is way better than nothing
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 09:22
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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The stock market isn’t the worst indicator of where things are going but it’s far from the best.
TAB etc do a better job of picking winners (sports or elections) than do professional pollsters. Partly because people place their $ on what they honestly believe the outcome will be - not on the outcome they hope for. Partly because of the large numbers of people involved in the markets tend to cancel out bias (scorpion submarine).

I have seen a number of financial analyses peering into the COVID crystal ball. They have been better than the medical analyses. I suspect this is because the financial guys just look at the data and try to see a pattern, rather than trying to get the data it to fit a preconceived model. Perhaps also the financial guys are better funded / resourced.

Sure the markets were slow to price in the bad news. So was just about everyone. But my guess is the pros did ok. It’s unusually the mugs who pile in at the end of a Ponzi scheme who do their dough.


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Old 17th Jun 2020, 10:18
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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In a week or so we will have a better idea.....however it has been said by TLS, ‘we (Qantas) have to plan for the worst’.

Even if a vaccine was proved late this year, there is the issue of global distribution. Vaccine passport anyone? The likelihood of Qantas PLANNING for any long haul schedule in FY21 is slim. This is backed up by Jefferies’ analysis. Of course, they want the flexibility to ramp up though.

They will transfer as much ‘risk’ to employees as possible whilst reducing their own cash burn. This means any non essential RIN will be delayed. 747 RIN will happen. Redundancies will be minimised as they are expensive compared to existing stand down provisions but some will be offered. Some may be forced. Consequently, the majority should expect to be stood down for another year. Qantas’ prerogative is to minimise costs. In the pilot division that doesn’t necessarily mean a massive headcount reduction. It’s not that we’re ‘family’, it’s because it COSTS LESS.

The company and the association have said no decisions have been made. It is absolute rubbish. The management of those decisions are being explored but they have a strategy and just need the board to sign off on it. Making certain your own personal circumstances would be sound advice. Don’t be the one left staring at the headlights.

Unlike the sharemarkets, aviation profit and the success of their workers is not based on sentiment.

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Old 17th Jun 2020, 11:09
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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QF can move costs around at will. It can justify 6 weeks leave a year per pilot as an expense. 6 weeks leave is cheaper than making guys CR and then the churn in training to backfill in the future. 1 seat change is 4-6 seat changes & 2-3 years of paying a pilots to be non productive.

When a suitable time presents, itíll write the costs off. For instance it could hold the cost of the fleet higher and use that gap for wages, then write the fleet off at a later date.

The staff will be stood down until required. Natural attrition will sort out the numbers through retirements and medical retirements. I donít even think there will be VR packages.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 11:29
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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I’m sure the ATO will be happy to hear that is the plan.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 11:31
  #228 (permalink)  
Keg

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Originally Posted by crosscutter View Post
The company and the association have said no decisions have been made. It is absolute rubbish. The management of those decisions are being explored but they have a strategy and just need the board to sign off on it.
Approaching DPA Iíve planned for a few different outcomes and contingencies. As I get there I say Ďgoí on the required option. This is the same in terms of looking at the company response to Covid. The significant difference being that there are multiple decision points along this COVID journey including Ďsit on your handsí. In the next week or so we reach one of them. There are more to come as more information comes in.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 12:20
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles View Post
Iím sure the ATO will be happy to hear that is the plan.

Well 6 A380s parked up and written off at a future date at a convenient time should sort that out. 12 is golden.

You also saw something similar during the record loss. It was basically manufactured by holding the fleet value high and pumping the write offs into one FY. Plus a lot of waste was cut and here we are today.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 18:33
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-October.html
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 19:45
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Slightly off topic but
Approaching DPA I’ve planned for a few different outcomes and contingencies. As I get there I say ‘go’ on the required option. This is the same in terms of looking at the company response to Covid.
That is the easiest and simplest way of describing the purpose/ use of DPA I’ve heard. For some reason some pilots make DPA complex but that sums up its simplicity well.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 22:05
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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I reckon all the A380’s are dead in the water, what a monumental waste of money those pieces of junk have been.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 22:15
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Angle of Attack View Post
I reckon all the A380ís are dead in the water, what a monumental waste of money those pieces of junk have been.
In hindsight, yes. But back in the day they sure looked like the future of aviation. Too bad Airbus overpromised on reliability and efficiency, but that was only slightly predictable back then.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 23:40
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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I think every Qf pilot would recall 777's were available....
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 23:42
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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The border closures are going to have to remain until at least India and China are no longer out of control. The reason being that the pandemic is triggering massive migrations of those who can afford to escape to relative safety. We will simply be overwhelmed in Australia if we opened our borders any time soon.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 23:49
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Unless they are “students” of course. Then it’s open sesame.
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Old 17th Jun 2020, 23:59
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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The students will still be required to quarantine in a hotel at the University's expense and the cost of the flight will be covered by the student so not really open slather.
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Old 18th Jun 2020, 00:06
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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I’m sure the UK and USA and all other countries other than just the Asian ones were meant to be on that list..

Last edited by ozbiggles; 18th Jun 2020 at 00:33.
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Old 18th Jun 2020, 00:31
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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ANU vice-chancellor Brian Schmidt said while the students would need to be quarantined for two weeks in hotels — with costs divided between students, the universities and the ACT government…
Good to know the taxpayer is on the hook for this one
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Old 18th Jun 2020, 00:32
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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QF if they are considering and have the Nuts for it could possibly make all long haul crews redundant pay them out and absorb the loss in future by reemploying as required on new lower paid contracts so in 5 to 10 years they are streaks ahead of leaving the status Quo .
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