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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

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Will you ever go back to Aviation?

Old 14th Sep 2020, 13:01
  #81 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by Lookleft View Post
At some point it will need to be integrated, tested and certified into a real oxygen breathing aeroplane. Integrating different "systems" into something that needs to actually fly not just be simulated is a very difficult proposition. I'm thinking Kaman Seasprite and the RAN.
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 16:55
  #82 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: space
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 21:36
  #83 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: At Home
Posts: 283
I’ll never understand why, as a society, we’re so hell bent on putting people out of work. It’s already been said, but if true AI is realised, it won’t just be Pilots out of work. Given humanity’s history of “looking before they leap” we’ll have all these fancy self flying Aircraft with no one buying tickets because the population is unemployed and broke.

But I digress...

Currently I cant even leave old mate alone for 5 minutes to take a leak without a CC member supervising them. So Single Pilot + AI will be a very interesting discussion in terms of who’s actually in Command. The AI or the “Captain”.
Secondly, right now, there’ll be no shortage of Pilots suitably qualified to babysit the AI, having done their “apprenticeship” as FO’s. Once it’s all single Pilot, will kids be going fist “Solo” in an Airliner?

I've (hopefully) got 20 years give or take left in the saddle, and I can definitely see Long-Haul becoming 2 Pilot, single Pilot Cruise in my career, but Single (or no) Pilot is a ways off I imagine.

Ignoring everything else, I can see Liability being the big brick wall in this endeavour. When (not it) one of these fancy AI Aircraft crash, and the manufacturer can’t blame the Pilots, and the class actions start rolling in, and Airlines around the world are forced to ground entire fleets until the software is fixed, will it really be worth it?

Boeing and Airbus sell the Aircraft, they don’t employ the Pilots. How much liability are they going to willingly accept so their customers can save a few percent on operating costs?

If every other form of transport becomes fully automated during my career, I might start to worry. But given most trains still have drivers and they’re on tracks, I can’t see us being replaced in my lifetime.

Yes, single Pilot cruise is likely coming to Long-haul, and yes, the jobs going to get even more automated and tedious, but there will till be 2 Pilots up front for Takeoff and Landing.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 22:20
  #84 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kichin
Posts: 465
Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
And this fantastical machine will make decisions? Think for itself? Or will it still require a human to tell it what to do?

Iím still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and Iíve seen such crews cross check each otherís work to virtually eliminate errors.

Good luck to you Xeptu, youíll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 23:49
  #85 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 383
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
I think you need to stop channeling L. Ron Hubbard and step back into reality. Whatever robot F/O your freakshow imagination comes up with will need to be certified by the FAA and EASA before it gets used on a revenue generating flight. There are no shortcuts with that process especially after Boeing tried to sneak their MCAS wunderkind through.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 00:00
  #86 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by gordonfvckingramsay View Post
And this fantastical machine will make decisions? Think for itself? Or will it still require a human to tell it what to do?

Iím still to see an autopilot make a good decision, and I am yet to see a human make good decisions 100% of the time. I HAVE seen an experienced, well trained crew use an aircraft system as a tool in the operation of the aircraft, and Iíve seen such crews cross check each otherís work to virtually eliminate errors.

Good luck to you Xeptu, youíll probably want to get a command quick smart then, you know, before all the airlines sack FOs because the computer is doing your job.
Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you. It's a synthetic human, you'll enjoy working with it, it knows more than you.
I know it's difficult to imagine, but 30 years ago, we couldn't have imagined WiFi either.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 00:06
  #87 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Timbuktoo
Posts: 72
Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you.
....send drunk suggestive text messages to F/As same as you.




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Old 15th Sep 2020, 00:13
  #88 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: In da Big Smoke
Posts: 2,502
It will be trained, no different to you were, it will be trained only once and replicated into thousands.
The fact they can't automate simple processes yet makes me wonder how something as safety critical and complex as aviation is magically going to be automated with ensuing mass layoffs. And it still begs the question of what problem are you solving by automating it?

I read in the paper today that Wharfies are threatening to shut down the country again. Yet people think that Pilots are going to be redundant in the near future. If we can't or can't afford to automate something so simple as a wharf how are we going to automate an aviation network??
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 00:19
  #89 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: The Covid state
Posts: 95
Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
Yes it will make decisions the same as you, think the same as you, operate the same as you. It's a synthetic human, you'll enjoy working with it, it knows more than you.
I know it's difficult to imagine, but 30 years ago, we couldn't have imagined WiFi either.
Drivers required for USS Enterprise. No more humanoids however now accepting Vulcans.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 01:50
  #90 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by Turnleft080 View Post
Drivers required for USS Enterprise. No more humanoids however now accepting Vulcans.
I know it all sounds 24th century, but we are further along than you think. How Amelia will be rolled out, I see a short sim session with a few unsuspecting Captains, the objective to see if you notice she isn't human.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 02:06
  #91 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 441
Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
I know it all sounds 24th century, but we are further along than you think. How Amelia will be rolled out, I see a short sim session with a few unsuspecting Captains, the objective to see if you notice she isn't human.
When she gets plugged in might be the first clue.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 02:30
  #92 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
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Originally Posted by ruprecht View Post
When she gets plugged in might be the first clue.
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 02:41
  #93 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Timbuktoo
Posts: 72
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
Oh FFS. Who thinks up this shit? Is that you BNEA320?

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Old 15th Sep 2020, 02:45
  #94 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 1998
Location: The Swan Downunder
Posts: 575
Originally Posted by brokenagain View Post
Oh FFS. Who thinks up this shit? Is that you BNEA320?
No! but the reaction doesn't come as any surprise, it wasn't all that long ago it was the exact same response about women.
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 02:45
  #95 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Australia
Posts: 441
Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
She'll be already in what appears to be a normal seat, greet you by name and a smile when you take your seat. the objective is to keep you in the dark about what she is as much as possible. If it's successful, you won't know until the session is complete and you have left the simulator. Only those behind you will know. If none of the subject captains twigged that something isn't quite right here then she's ready.
Hahaha, that’s gold Jerry, gold!

So when the briefing officer tells you’re briefing on your own and that the FO is waiting in the sim, that’ll be your first clue.



Last edited by ruprecht; 15th Sep 2020 at 06:23.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 04:35
  #96 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: over that way
Posts: 6
Awesome thread, just awesome. To get it back on track and answer the original question.... YES I intend to aviate again. To stay in the correct headspace I put on full uniform for my morning walk to get my daily bottle of fortified wine. The young lass in the bottle shop seems most impressed. It also helps when updating IG and faciebook. With my heavy single experience I expect to enter the airlines before too long, I heard Qantas will be hiring soon and they like their SO's to have a strong social media following. It's all about ticking the boxes right? Awesome thread, just awesome.
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 07:15
  #97 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Gafa
Posts: 132
Originally Posted by decoder View Post
Awesome thread, just awesome. To get it back on track and answer the original question.... YES I intend to aviate again. To stay in the correct headspace I put on full uniform for my morning walk to get my daily bottle of fortified wine.
All the hip cool kids get theirs in a box!
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 13:39
  #98 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: australia
Age: 70
Posts: 893
Hey Pilot , you buy me a box of “ White Lady in a boat “ ?
(Lindeman’s Moselle ) ?
You can puk me if you do !
Luv U long time !
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Old 16th Sep 2020, 14:13
  #99 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: mars
Posts: 48
Really?

Originally Posted by Lapon View Post
I dont believe there will a material change to terms and conditions (certainly at the bigger end of town). I dont remeber seeing any significant improvements to T&Cs directly attributed to a pilot shortage in the past, so unless pilots buckle under threat I dont see an adverse change now.
Just an update(!), the crew that are still fortunate enough to be flying, that there are indeed material changes being implemented (to T's and Cs / EBA's etc etc) The shrewd operators are using the Covid smokescreen as the perfect opportunity - regardless of profitability of the said business or not - to continue the race to the bottom for aviation professionals remuneration. Sad fact is, when things do start to stabilise, there is likely to be a direct impact in the form of an accident or incident owing to the distraction of all things Covid, recency, currency, standards, mental health (in the form of distractions) ........ the list goes on.

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Old 19th Sep 2020, 16:53
  #100 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sydney
Age: 60
Posts: 44
I was lucky to be part of the industry in the Golden Era. First as a passenger as a boy and then finally got into GA and then a domestic airline. Left the industry many years ago and feel for the younger guys and girls who fought hard to get into the airlines like me. The industry has changed so much that I feel the regulator has lost touch with the real life challenges of both GA and RPT ops. Despite my age I gained a lot of skills from the old timers who were my instructors and examiners of airmen in the DCA in the late 1960's onwards. There are now so many restrictions and rule changes that I feel are there to protect the regulator from indemnity rather than focusing on safety. Can still remember when, during my initial twin endorsement in a Twin Camanche, we unintentionally got into a flat spin with the late James Hazelton who suggested we try a full power stall, We were lucky to get out of it but Jim had a technique for recovery talked me through it rather than taking over. The next day we told the head examiner of airmen DCA at Bankstown and he had the flight manuals amended so as to prevent such incidents.
In those days the DCA and Bureau of Air Safety worked together. The great thing about those days were that if you experienced an abnormal incident you could be honest with the regulator in the interests of safety. Although I have a lot of experience in the industry and would like to impart the knowledge to the younger generation I do not have faith in either the regulator nor the ATSB in its present form. Thus because of my age and my distrust of the industry in it's present form I doubt if I will ever return.
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