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Cobham - Going, Going, Gone

Old 21st Dec 2019, 10:54
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Old 21st Dec 2019, 19:01
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blitzkrieger View Post
Finally some light at the end of the tunnel for my friends at Cobham!

https://apple.news/AzzFaIvRNSeub1q9qb6oTxw

Private equity company = asset stripper = closure
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Old 21st Dec 2019, 21:30
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
Private equity company = asset stripper = closure
This is historically true in some cases.

On a side note, I wonder if the Jetstar issues will potentially benefit Cobham? Could they end up being used as a cheap option to service destinations/flights being cancelled longer term if Qantas was to extend or amend their current contract and Cobham end up some of these 220s or lease some more E-jets? (there are a bunch of ex Virgin 190s sitting around) - Pure curiosity on my part and no idea what the cost/profit margin is like between the two... but seeing how the money always flows back to Qantas would it matter who actually operated the flight at the end of the day?
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Old 22nd Dec 2019, 03:07
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
Private equity company = asset stripper = closure
People need to remember that the Cobham's Australian ops rely exclusively on contract work, some of which extends as far as the middle of the next decade. It wouldn't be in Advent's best interest to shut shop as they would ultimately be responsible for any termination clauses in Cobham's contracts. It will be sold and more than likely folded into another airline, but shut down? Not if Advent wants to make money from it.
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Old 23rd Dec 2019, 00:51
  #45 (permalink)  
ebt
 
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Originally Posted by regional_flyer View Post
People need to remember that the Cobham's Australian ops rely exclusively on contract work, some of which extends as far as the middle of the next decade. It wouldn't be in Advent's best interest to shut shop as they would ultimately be responsible for any termination clauses in Cobham's contracts. It will be sold and more than likely folded into another airline, but shut down? Not if Advent wants to make money from it.
Advent is going to hold Cobham Australia for long - the sale was announced at the same time as Advent made their takeover offer, so it's clear that they see no value in continuing to hold it. Still need to watch this space for who will buy it, and with the year just about done, there must be something holding it up.
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Old 23rd Dec 2019, 06:02
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Advent is going to hold Cobham Australia for long - the sale was announced at the same time as Advent made their takeover offer,
That makes no sense.
I think may you be mixing up the two issues.
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Old 23rd Dec 2019, 18:06
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
That makes no sense.
I think may you be mixing up the two issues.
I think the word "not" is missing... as in "Advent is NOT going to hold Cobham Australia for long"
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Old 23rd Dec 2019, 19:51
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There are several parts to Cobham Australia, I would suggest Advent will hold onto the profitable part(s) and let the rest go. Surveillance and SAR are government contracts (pretty safe), the Regional operation seems to be self sustaining (also pretty safe). That leaves Airline, QF wonít let that go without significant oversight of its operation. Take that however you like.
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Old 24th Dec 2019, 01:16
  #49 (permalink)  
ebt
 
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Originally Posted by Chris2303 View Post
I think the word "not" is missing... as in "Advent is NOT going to hold Cobham Australia for long"
Yes, this is what I meant to say - my bad for not spotting it before posting.

I imagine that splitting up Cobham along the government and defence against airline lines would make the most sense. Advent could keep the juicy defence contracts - which include supporting Predator UAVs and spin off the civil stuff. Problem is, what value is inherent in just the regional services and Qantas work? FIFO probably pays its way, as would the night freight ops, but the 717 contract has been changed so many times that surely it just gets by. How does any potential investor come in and see how to grow the operation or strip out any further costs with the environment the way it is? I can't see it, but perhaps others can.
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Old 24th Dec 2019, 03:44
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Private equity company = asset stripper = closure
Not really. PE buys an asset to make money from it. Not liquidate it. That's only done if it is a dead horse. They'll get improved margins, then usually sell it for a hefty profit.
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Old 27th Dec 2019, 02:21
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ebt View Post
Advent is going to hold Cobham Australia for long - the sale was announced at the same time as Advent made their takeover offer
I'm well aware of when it was announced, as I'm one of the many that any decision they make will affect. As much as we can read between the lines, the pedant in me would like to point out that Cobham has never referred to it as a "sale", they've carefully stuck to their story of "strategic review".
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 00:51
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Job losses already being reported at Cobham UK.
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Old 30th Jan 2020, 13:56
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Originally Posted by Bignose101 View Post
Job losses already being reported at Cobham UK.
Which are roles that Advent already hinted at going last year, mainly relating to its now-former life as a plc. Helps to tell the whole story.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 01:14
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blitzkrieger View Post
There are several parts to Cobham Australia, I would suggest Advent will hold onto the profitable part(s) and let the rest go. Surveillance and SAR are government contracts (pretty safe), the Regional operation seems to be self sustaining (also pretty safe). That leaves Airline, QF wonít let that go without significant oversight of its operation. Take that however you like.
What part of Cobham Australia do you suggest is profitable?

Border Force ending in 2 years, SAR loss making as the bid was half everyone else's, rumours Qantas is looking for people to develop B717 courses with only limited life left in em anyway and regional only very small. Be great to understand why Border Force or SAR would be retained? Safe for staff yes, safe from sale.....no.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 11:12
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Border Force is the reason Cobham bought National Jet in the first place. Iíd be surprised if it was put up for sale, particularly if other Australian business units were retained.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 19:46
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by empire4 View Post
What part of Cobham Australia do you suggest is profitable?

Border Force ending in 2 years, SAR loss making as the bid was half everyone else's, rumours Qantas is looking for people to develop B717 courses with only limited life left in em anyway and regional only very small. Be great to understand why Border Force or SAR would be retained? Safe for staff yes, safe from sale.....no.
A real glass half full kind of guy arenít you.
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Old 4th Feb 2020, 20:29
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Can anyone comment on likely future the Surveillance branch?

What impact does technology (ie Satellites/UAVs) have on the future of maritime surveillance in Australia?

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Old 7th Feb 2020, 22:33
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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A real glass half full kind of guy arenít you.
Do you work at Cobham?
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Old 18th Feb 2020, 03:17
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Hearing rumors of more Ejets and Q400s coming. Can anyone confirm?
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Old 18th Feb 2020, 13:19
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Originally Posted by maesaithwameh View Post
Hearing rumors of more Ejets and Q400s coming. Can anyone confirm?
I'm hearing those rumours as well.

3rd Q400 arrives this week with upto 6 by the end of the year. As for the EJet, sounds like the current one will be returned but not before another arrives in its place. But hearing there could be 3-5 EJets by the end of the year.
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