F-35: wise spending of our dollars?

[Going Boeing]

With 72 F35A’s ordered to replace the “classic” F-18’s, I’ve been thinking about what would be the best replacement for the Super Hornet’s & Growlers in the long term. Conventional thinking is that it would be more F35’s (possibly updated) but, if this hybrid F22/F35 project gets off the ground, it would make a brilliant high end replacement. The fact that it is being planned to be exported to Japan indicates that the US government ban on foreign sales of the F22 may be repealed.

Lockheed Pitching F-22/F-35 Hybrid to U.S. Air Force

[Lookleft]

Maybe the Yanks have finally woken up to the fact that quantity as well as quality is needed to keep pace with the Chinese military when the inevitable conflict breaks out.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Lookleft

Maybe the Yanks have finally woken up to the fact that quantity as well as quality is needed to keep pace with the Chinese military when the inevitable conflict breaks out.

The rise of China since the 70's has come about by the opening of trade with the world at large. In more recent times, the long term planning of China is seen globally, with the amount of resource contracted from all parts of the world, showing there is a positioning to ensure supply of resources. The local hot spots are historically sensitive, but the establishment of military bases in contested waters is a new shift, and does come about from having confidence in the growing naval power at least in the South China Sea. The acoustics in that region frustrate both sides of the sub warfare outcome, but a sub remains a serious risk to any maritime trade and control of sea lanes. In the SCS, mining of the sea lanes and approaches to harbours would be a confounding factor to the prosecution of any war plan involving land grabs of EEZ resources based on maritime transport. Modern mines are a P.I.T.A, literally and figuratively.

Would be interesting to see how this plays out at the end of the next 50 year plan, but I doubt that the reality of benefit of international trade will be lost on the Chinese Govt, except of course that most wars occur due to misunderstandings and overly confident and exuberant aspirations of leaders with unfettered power. Then again Round 1 started because it was just time to have a bit of a fight, and it was easier to have it than get the royalty in charge to contemplate the consequences of their actions.

We tend to fight the last war at least in the beginning of the next one. Where there is an unexpected technological or tactical change that occurs, the outcome becomes more uncertain than otherwise would be the case. The F-35 is an impressive system, but whether it is the right tool for low intensity conflicts, CAS or force projection is the concern I have. The latest pricing estimates for the future frigates appears to be in the same category of capital risk. a $35B/9 Frigate [program?] cost would appear to put each keel into the category of a national treasure. Gunk holing around on a dark night inshore in hostile waters would need a pretty good rationale to be authorised.

There are times where high value assets with leading edge capabilities pay dividends, there are other times that a bicycle, pound of rice and a rifle is impossible to beat. Getting inside the opponents decision making tempo, and having some imagination [not limited to your own view of the world, but comprehending the adversaries position with honesty] makes a difference.

[Gnadenburg]

fdr

What about upgrading Super Hornets for a hi-lo mix? I'm sure they'd do a good enough job until we get a new generation helicopter / drone mix for the CAS role.

Flying over the South China Sea most working days and the escalation is dramatic. The cussing on 121.5 with the Japanese and Chinese having a particular ferocity; the Koreans don't mind a crack too. What a shame war in Asia and all its horror features in neither's school text books. There's another generation of aggrieved hawks emerging.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Gnadenburg

fdr

What about upgrading Super Hornets for a hi-lo mix? I'm sure they'd do a good enough job until we get a new generation helicopter / drone mix for the CAS role.

Flying over the South China Sea most working days and the escalation is dramatic. The cussing on 121.5 with the Japanese and Chinese having a particular ferocity; the Koreans don't mind a crack too. What a shame war in Asia and all its horror features in neither's school text books. There's another generation of aggrieved hawks emerging.

Gnads; expect that there is lots of merit in holding onto the Super Hornets, however the CAS task is not the right task for that aircraft. The SBS following round 2 was intended to show how great the contribution of 3.5mT of HE had been in achieving the outcome, however the evidence really never supported that contention. Viet Nam showed that there is no easy long range solution using air power alone to bend the will of a committed adversary, while also showing that the group think of the strategists as to how the other side would respond remains a problem. In the end, conflict involves people vs people on the ground, and CAS is effective where the right tool is used. Neither the F-18E/F or the F-35 is an ideal CAS aircraft without target designation/illumination. Now that is still a conventional view of conflict, one where another identifiable force enters an area and is engaged. Asymmetric warfare will as often as not confound planning efforts and make the discussion on airframe selections moot, however, Von Moltke's observation that No plan of operation reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main force (restated as no plan survives contact with the enemy) led to Ike's addition that however the effort of planning was everything. Ike indicated that the plan (D-Day) fell apart promptly, but the effort of the planning had given insight to the staff and leaders that permitted the maintenance of momentum with the situational awareness that existed from the planning process. Hopefully that puts some value into review of such weighty decisions as how a nation spends its treasure in maintaining sovereign integrity.

The SCS has been a flashpoint for a long time, and is certainly a spot where a mis-step could end up in tears. In the event of even an accidental commencement of hostilities the $64 question is would national pride "trump" national interest/common sense. China appears strong economically, but it has been entirely due to the external demand until recent times. Getting into a tiff with your customers won't help maintain the growth that has supported the rise of the military capacity. China remains a bubble economy, and has been since the 90's, with a growing socio-economic imbalance between the rural and city populations. The latter have developed wealth from arbitrage with their foreign customers. Entering into hostilities that suspend export would give a pretty interesting internal problem for the leaders, while potentially giving the justification for the return to national manufacture in EU, US and other countries. The real concern is that there is still more rationality in Beijing than in the WH, where Woodward indicated today that in early 2017, Trump asked for a plan for pre-emptive strikes on NK.