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IR Scare Tactics Plan SH EBA/LH EBA

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IR Scare Tactics Plan SH EBA/LH EBA

Old 18th Feb 2018, 07:47
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IR Scare Tactics Plan SH EBA/LH EBA

It’s alleged that there is an email that QF executives have been briefed that pilots are terrified to lose new aircraft orders.
The stategy is to scare and threaten pilots both with the planned Jetconnect integration and both the upcoming SH and LH EBAs. In essence unless you agree to XYZ or plan XYZ aircraft orders get cancelled.
Brief says the method was successfully evidenced getting concessions with the 787 EA and IR have said that threatening pilots with no more orders will be effective in stopping any Fair Work challenge. Threatening the removal of new aircraft orders will also be used as a method to reduce terms and conditions in the next EBAs.
Also claims that pilots are unlikely to show any signs of working to contract rules given record on Time performance and increased fuel savings.
Seems to back up the current strategy and dialogue.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:13
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The stategy is to scare and threaten pilots both with the planned Jetconnect integration and both the upcoming SH and LH EBAs.
Seen from afar, it would seem likely that this is a viable strategy.
It is almost without question that the Jetconnect, Network and 457 'announcements' are well timed.

After all, 1989 is 30 years ago!

The 2011 'dispute' and grounding was well timed as a new generation of pilots were in jet cockpits, who may well remember that year as footnote in history!

The strategy is a cornerstone of the adversarial model. As has been discussed on other threads, it is usually timed with a down turn in the business cycle to drive home fear. There is plenty of literature supporting your hypothesis.

It worked before it will probably work again!
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:19
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It worked before it will probably work again!
Only if we remain spineless!
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:24
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Only if we remain spineless!
Uber a looking for more drivers...
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:28
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Originally Posted by bazza stub View Post
Only if we remain spineless!
👍👍👍. Remember thou you don’t want to get between a Qantas pilot and a $10 note. However it s##t or get off the pot time.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 08:58
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If that’s what the execs have been told then I reckon they’re in for a huge shock tomorrow.

The general mood, from a sample of my peers is that they have had enough of their spin.

Not ordering new aircraft is corporate suicide. Even S&P have given Qantas a warning to get its fleet in order.

Some other points:
-Qantas has signed up to a fairly restrictive Carbon reduction target which they will miss horribly with our current fleet.
-Fuel prices are on the rise. Our competition have a majority two engined fleet which will put us at an increasing disadvantage the higher the fuel price is.
-The 787s are at bargain basement prices. To let these lapse is just laughable.
-The 787s have been spun in the media as “game changers”. How would they then explain that they’re stopping at 8 aircraft and give up 45 aircraft at bargain basement prices.

I believe the feeling among the troops is that not ordering any more aircraft is so totally irresponsible that even the current suits could not be so stupid.

It’s a hollow threat. It won’t work. The sooner they realise it the better we’ll all be.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 09:13
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Interesting too that we 'passed' on an option recently. Yet a few days later in response to the S&P article the ITN email brief mentioned specifically that we have 8 787s on order and options on 45 more. We haven't lost an option, it simply slid to the end of the line. There are still an additional 45 787s that can be delivered.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 09:45
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Not sure what you meant with the Uber comment TBM. My point was that we are in the strongest position we’ve been in for 50 odd years and we are still too weak collectively to see through the scare tactics. We fall for it every time.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 10:15
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Originally Posted by Keg View Post
Interesting too that we 'passed' on an option recently. Yet a few days later in response to the S&P article the ITN email brief mentioned specifically that we have 8 787s on order and options on 45 more. We haven't lost an option, it simply slid to the end of the line. There are still an additional 45 787s that can be delivered.
That’s an interesting comment, Keg.

Given that the number of “fixed date” options and the number of “variable date” purchase rights which comprise the 45 orders is pretty much in the public domain, it would be interesting if the truth is that a “fixed date” option has merely been converted to a “variable date” purchase right. If true, I would think that would be pretty close to lying to the sharemarket wouldn’t it? Does anyone have a copy of the QF ASX update on the subject?

Edit: I just searched the ASX and there isn’t one. If it’s so insignificant the ASX doesn’t need to know then nothing happened, other than PR spin to spook pilots. Don’t get spooked fellas.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 10:18
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Originally Posted by bazza stub View Post
Not sure what you meant with the Uber comment TBM. My point was that we are in the strongest position we’ve been in for 50 odd years and we are still too weak collectively to see through the scare tactics. We fall for it every time.
I don’t understand why ‘we’ are so scared. I never have. Not a single pilot could not equal or better their standard of living anywhere in the world. Conversely, if the Pikeys fail to get new jets for QF, their $5m++ salaries will be very hard to replicate elsewhere.

There is nothing to fear but fear itself. There IS nothing to lose.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 10:30
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Not scared here. Spoke to a banker mate who laughed when I told him about the threat to not order 787’s. He thinks it will hurt them more than it will hurt us and thought we should call their bluff. Confirmed exactly what I thought.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 10:49
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V-Jet.

Correct.

Does AJ or any of his cloud care what QF might look like in 20 years’ time? Of course not.

Does a 30 or 40 year-old pilot care what QF might like like in 20 years’ time? You bet.

This is the problem with running an airline as if it was “any other business”. The lead time for serious fleet improvements is so long that it outlives any executive’s tenure. AJ is enjoying huge PR for the eventual delivery of his “gamechangers” that were ordered 12 years ago by his predecessor.

The sharemarket rewards future short term earnings. AJ’s pay packet is based on sharemarket reward. So why would he start spending money on aircraft? He won’t be around to see them!

The fact that AJ just delayed a 787 order is a sign that he will be departing sometime soon and he needs the shareprice to max on his day of departure. Millions of dollars (for him) depend upon it.

AJ will go, and take his millions. A new guy will step in and buy aircraft. The shareprice will tank temporarily, and the board will choose that moment to lock in share price incentives for the new CEO. If he/she stays around long enough, more millions. Meanwhile, there will be enough disasters, crises and cycles to pressure and marginalise pilots to lower conditions.

I’d like to think that it won’t work this time. Who’s with me?
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 11:08
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Originally Posted by Derfred View Post
I’d like to think that it won’t work this time. Who’s with me?
Pick me.

Right there with you.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 17:29
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As a non pilot on this form but someone who cares for the company, call them out for this threat

Not taking the 787s is criminal but threatening the drivers with it is....well I cant explain how bad that is

If they do carry out the threat, the share market will be savage thier reaction

But you are all right - AJ is planning his exit. What else if therebto achieve? He has his millions and can ride into the sunset
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 19:23
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It’s unclear to me how the threat of not ordering 787’s was made. Was it an email or memo?
To me it is like a Builder threatening his labourers that if they keep pushing for better conditions he will not order any more nails. No future in it at all.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 19:58
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The comment was made in person by Andrew David at a meeting with pilots (with the new head of IR present) and I believe during a phone "dial in" discussion. Although he wouldn't describe it as a threat....
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 20:19
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The Fair Work Ombudsman has a page dedicated to Protections at Work.

Employees can’t be treated differently or worse because they possess or have exercised a right, or for a discriminatory reason.

Employees are protected from:
  • adverse action
  • coercion
  • undue influence or pressure
  • misrepresentation.
Oh that's right, there wan't ever a lock-out either, it was a safety shutdown prior to any lock-out. CASA Qantas documentation file to justify the safety case.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 20:30
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Like every good story there is an element of truth in the “we wont order 787 threat”

He is absolutely correct in so much as if every pilot in the qf group said “we will not fly the 787 for anything less than a million a year and unicorns for everyone” then obviously they wont order 787’s.

But that is obviously a stupid and extreme example - not EVERYONE wants a unicorn but the point is without a reasonable chance of achieving a negotiated set of terms and conditions upon which they can build the ongoing business case for the fleet on then the risk associated with ordering a squillion dollars worth of aeroplanes is high BUT that is not where they are at.

Some HR knob has decided, in his/her wisdom, that pilots, being pilots, will want to fly the shiney new jet and be prepared to do so on the cheap and if threatened will cave.

They have not looked at the flip side and realised that without new aircraft the airline will wither and die.

Fuel will eventually kick up again and the operating cost of old fuel inefficient aeroplanes will bite, maintenance - both costs and reliability will be impacted and again these will cause the airline to wither and die.

So, in my opinion, the threat to take their bat and ball and go home is merely a negotiating tactic to divide the pilot group and get a sense for what the mood of the group is.

Undoubtedly some HR intern is reading these posts and reporting back letting them know that the collective mood is “up yours” and they will adjust the rhetoric appropriately.

The other thing is Andrew said they wont order 787’s but didnt say they would not order 350’s....it is all in the detail and he can make the threat without his nose growing like pinnocio because they have a latest generation aeroplane they can order whilst still being truthful about the threat.

But to be clear, the choice to maintain the current fleet and not move, at some point, into more fuel and maintenance efficient aeroplanes is as destructive to executive bonuses as it is to pilot promotional plans.

Same applies to the other mob who have 777’s coming up on 10 years old and a small fleet of 330’s with no new aircraft orders in place, admittedly that is driven by the lack of money than pilot negotiations.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 21:14
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Fuel will eventually kick up again and the operating cost of old fuel inefficient aeroplanes will bite

The IEA (International Energy Agency) agrees.

  • The world consumes 30 billion barrels of WTI crude a year.
  • The world discovered 550 million barrels per month.
  • The draw down on reserves was accelerated.
  • The 'replenishment rate reserves for Oil and Gas was 11%
  • Oil demand rises 1.3 million barrels per day.




This information is publicly available and accessible.


The smartest guys in the room would know this if half competent.





Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 18th Feb 2018, 21:21
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I doubt there’s any internal memo or brief. That’s why the opening poster used the phrase alleged. More likely the whole premise of there being a memo has been made up to try to wind pilots up and harden their resolve.
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