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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

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So you need a new fleet Leigh?

Old 18th Dec 2018, 09:08
  #681 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SandyPalms View Post
I wonder if we’re about to find out the truth, once Gregg squeals?



‘Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is'
-Sir Winston Churchill


Ever wonder why Lucinda Holdforth was gagged when wanting to write about the events leading up to the 'spontaneous' grounding of Qantas 29 October 2011?

Maybe, for a passenger on-carriage point of view. From a stand alone view point? Qantas, from a "pays the bills" viewpoint pays it's own bills and still makes money. Jetstar? Where would they be if they were buying their own aircraft, or perhaps paying their own fuel bills? I certainly think Jetstar needs Qantas far more than Qantas needs Jetstar.







Evidence of absence is not absence of evidence.
Sitting in the bowels of QCA are the management accounts showing who pays for what.
That Qantas management choose to provide zero detail is indicative that the 'amazing business' exists on in the mind of Little Napoleon and those in Fort Fumble that believe every problem an airline faces is solved with adversarial IR.
It is plausible that JQ was created to 'wedge' VAH. It is equally as plausible that it was an invention of consultants, sold to inept management as a panacea to labour unit cost.
Indeed the old stomping ground of Bruce Buchanan Boston Consulting Group (BCG) had such a 'matrix'. To inept airline managers, it may have seemed divine.
Jetstar could simply have been a bit of both; a bit of a wedge, stimulating 'eleastic' leisure travel. Mr Gregg also highlighted during a hearing by your Australian parliament that it would 'generate competitive wage pressure' .

It is worth noting that until Little Napoleon and the Fossil got hold of Qantas, JQ was, contained within the fenced paddock. It may be the reason for the falling out between Mr Dixon and Little Napoleon. Once Little Napoleon had unchecked access to those management accounts, it grew exponentially. A little from Column A and a little from Column B, no one noticed. Before long JQ was as big as the parent, yet despite all this lacked the ability to drive revenue and margin. Seeing his creation myth grow before his eyes is one thing, but for a business spoken so highly of, in carefully worded statements, scant proof of its performance is forthcoming, with the exception of carefully crafted narrative supporting figures. Curious minds may wonder why? The answer is that they are not required to demonstrate under the audit provision in the very slack accounting governance framework in Australia. They are not required to disclose who pays for what, wonder why they choose not to!

It is further worth noting that the board are lightweight. Wearing T Shirts and a scraggy appearance might be hip but it doesn't necessarily mean one can understand corporate finance. Throw in a bunch of Freehills lawyers and a few leasing people and the reality that Little Napoleon could spin a big yarn and be believed is not implausible.

It is possible that the whole lot of them know little, care less.
One might hope that Mr Goyder learned a little from his attempt at Wesfarmers to re-invent the hardware wheel here in Europe with Bunnings.
With most of the cost an airline incurs setting up and running the business being fixed then the possibilities are few as to where JQ would actually enjoy 'cost savings' Simply look at the seed of start up capital of any stand alone airline that started in the last 15 years. Until they generate sufficient scale they require more capital. JQ was 'profitable' very early. It was never going to stand alone. Thus where would it generate actual realisable 'savings'?
  • Labour at the margin
  • Out sourced everything
  • Borrow lots from the parent and not be required to pay
  • 'Lease; aircraft from the parent at less than a market rate
With a very elastic revenue model the business is not probably what Little Napoleon's ego would have him tell himself every day.

Qantas need the new fleet.
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Old 30th Dec 2018, 21:43
  #682 (permalink)  
 
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The Last 747: Airlines Dump the Jumbo Jet, Transforming International Travel

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-las...el-11546059601

Smaller, ultraefficient long-range airliners are overtaking the once celebrated giant of the sky; crammed seats and fewer perks

Robert WallDec. 29, 2018 12:00 a.m. ETAbout a year ago, a Boeing BA -0.24%747 operated by Delta Air Lines took off from Atlanta for a three-hour flight to Pinal Airpark, a boneyard for unwanted aircraft in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert.

Delta has replaced its fleet of jumbo jets with Airbus A350s, one of a new breed of smaller, ultraefficient long-range airliners. Nearly every other airline in the world is doing a version of the same thing, replacing huge jets with smaller ones.

The newer planes, which include the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, are redrawing the map for global air travel. They can fly just as far as the jumbos, but often are less expensive to operate on a per-seat basis. They allow airlines to offer multiple flights on routes that once justified only a single big aircraft. That helps fill seats and boost profits.

Small Long-Haul Planes Take Off

Larger jets are losing their cost edge on intercontinental flights...


...as newer, more efficient aircraft can fly similar ranges and be at least as cost effective.

Source: the companies

For passengers, this is a mixed blessing. As planes get smaller and flights more frequent, long-haul travel is taking on some of the cattle-car characteristics of domestic travel—inexpensive tickets, cramped seats and no free meals.

On the other hand, for many international travelers, the shift is eliminating what has been an almost mandatory stopover in a global airport hub such as New York, London, Dubai or Singapore.

“Since the dawn of air travel, people always wanted to fly direct,” says Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s chief jetliner salesman. Smaller planes have changed the economics of the industry, he says, and have “pushed big aircraft, to some extent, out of the market.”Delta 747s are cleaned and prepped for storage at Pinal Airpark, a boneyard for unwanted aircraft in Arizona’s Sonoran Desert. Photo: Dustin Chambers/ZUMA PRESS
Amplifying the shift is the proliferation of no-frills budget carriers flying internationally that have helped to drive down ticket prices and spur a boom in air travel. Long-haul flights—once an extravagant commitment of time and money—are becoming less expensive and more convenient.

Between 2007 and 2017, the average fare between North America and Europe, adjusted for inflation, declined by 40%.

In 2000, airlines flew 1,414 direct international routes of more than seven hours, according to air-travel data provider OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd. This year, they flew 2,778. Direct service now links Providence, R.I., with Edinburgh, Scotland, Oakland with Barcelona, Las Vegas with Copenhagen, and Los Angeles with Chengdu, China.

New Links

The Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 long-haul planes have allowed airlines to offer direct flights between far-flung cities. Some of them include:


New airline routes, in miles

3,830

Source: the companies, FlightRadar24

That is a boon for travelers such as Evan Laskaris, a Greek-American who lives in Chicago. When he was growing up in South Carolina, traveling to Greece involved flying to New York’s LaGuardia Airport, taking a cab to JFK, then flying to Athens. Flying from Chicago was easier, but still took 14 hours, including a three-hour layover in Frankfurt.

American Airlines Group Inc.’s new direct flight between Chicago and Athens on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner should take 10 hours 40 minutes. “If I can go direct, I’m going to go direct,” says Mr. Laskaris, a program director at a logistics company. “In the past, I didn’t have that choice.”

Airline executives and analysts say the smaller jets have contributed to today’s record profits. Load factor, a measure of seats sold, should reach a record 81.9% this year, according to the International Air Transport Association, in part because smaller planes are easier to fill. The past five years have been the best for collective airline profits, despite the decline in airfares, according to the IATA, an industry trade group.

With many passengers focusing on inexpensive fares, however, many long-haul flights no longer offer the kind of international travel experience that was common in yesteryear. Amenities once taken for granted by international economy-class passengers, such as free food or a checked bag with the price of the ticket, have become extras.

Seating layouts are determined by airlines, not plane makers. Although premium-class passengers still get plenty of space into the new long-haul flights, economy fliers frequently are packed as tightly as they are on short-haul discount runs.

Long-haul travel “is no longer something that is a luxury,” says Jennifer Munro, a hiring consultant and a frequent flier. “Now it is like riding a bus, something that gets us from here to there.”

Shifting SkiesDelivery and use of new Boeing 787 and Airbus A350planes have boomed as the megatransport 747 andA380 sales fade.Source: the companiesNote: 2018 figures are through November.

.deliveriesAirbus A350Boeing 787Airbus A380Boeing 7472010’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18050100150200250

Flight FrequenciesSource: OAGNote: 2018 data through Oct. 1

.flightsA350Boeing 787A380Boeing 7472010’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’180200,000400,000600,000800,000

Global hubs aren’t going away. Even some large cities can’t sustain demand for direct flights. Fewer than four passengers a day, on average, travel between Seattle, where Boeing makes most of its planes, and Toulouse, France, where archrival Airbus SE EADSY 0.80%is based, according to data from travel-technology company Sabre Corp. They still have to fly through hubs such as Amsterdam, London or Paris—and probably will for years to come.

It has been 80 years since Lufthansapioneered nonstop trans-Atlantic flights with a four-engine Focke-Wulf Fw200 propeller airliner, named the Brandenburg. The trip from Berlin’s Tempelhof Airport to New York’s Floyd Bennett Field took almost 25 hours.

International travel opened up to the wider public only much later, thanks again to aircraft innovation. The Boeing 707, the first mass-produced, long-haul jet-powered plane, entered service with Pan Am in 1958, flying between New York and Paris.

Boeing’s 747, which began flying commercially in 1970, came to define trans-Atlantic flight for a generation. Almost two decades ago, Airbus bet big on its own giant, four-engine aircraft—the A380 superjumbo jet.

The two plane makers shared the same idea: Airlines, saddled by high operating costs and limited airport slots, would shuttle large numbers of passengers in a limited number of giant planes between a handful of global hubs. Getting to one of these hubs usually involved a connecting flight, as did reaching a final destination from the hub at the other end.

For much of the modern aviation era, a plane’s range was mainly dictated by how much fuel it could carry. Bigger planes, with bigger gas tanks, could fly longer.

Then, suddenly, technology allowed long-haul planes to shrink.

In 2003, Boeing started developing what would become its twin-engine 787 Dreamliner. Made partly of composite material, it was light enough to fly as far as a 747. But it was much smaller, carrying an average 242 passengers, compared with the 410 typical for the 747.

Airbus, which had just bet big on the 575-seat superjumbo, answered with its own version of what the industry has dubbed a “hub buster”—the A350, which typically seats 325.

“The 787 and A350 were, and are, disrupters,” says Nico Buchholz, a former fleet planner at Deutsche Lufthansa AG.

The Dreamliner embraced a host of new technologies, notably its weight-saving carbon-fiber fuselage. Composites account for half of the weight of the Dreamliner’s hull. The plane’s electric system replaces some of the heavy hydraulics and pneumatic components typical in big jets. All that, plus more efficient engines, allow the plane to undercut the larger planes in an important metric: per-seat flight cost.

Bigger planes once won that contest because fixed costs such as pilots, crew and fuel were spread out over more seats. But the new breed of lighter planes upended that.

United Continental Holdings Inc.’s United Airlines spent about $17,748 an hour to operate its latest 747 in the 2017 fiscal year, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman. It spent $10,123 for one of the airline’s smaller 787 Dreamliners. That translates to a per-passenger cost of 9.19 cents a mile for the Dreamliner, compared with 9.23 cents a mile for the bigger plane.

The smaller planes also are easier to fill up, reducing the need to offer discounted tickets.

So airlines began buying the smaller planes and mothballing their bigger ones.Many airlines are replacing their hulking Boeing 747s with smaller and lighter Boeing 787 Dreamliners.Photo: Bayne Stanley/ZUMA PRESS
Last year, Singapore Airlines Ltd.consigned one of its first A380s to the scrapyard. It was only 10 years old. Nobody else was found who wanted to fly it.

“The role of the big planes has diminished,” says Campbell Wilson, senior vice president for sales and marketing at the Singapore carrier.

The company’s Scoot budget carrier operates Boeing’s Dreamliner for long-haul service linking Singapore with cities such as Berlin and Athens. In October, Singapore Air began flying the world’s longest route, between Singapore and Newark, N.J., with the Airbus A350.

Boeing, which has sold more than 1,400 Dreamliners, plans to deliver around 140 this year. It will make just six 747s this year, down from an average 30 a year since 1969. Almost all of the new 747s are headed for freight service.

Airbus has sold 890 A350s since 2006, compared with 331 A380 superjumbos, which it has been selling since 2000. Airbus had hoped to churn out as many as 48 of the superjumbos every year, butthis year is set to deliver about 12, and next year, just six. It will produce more than 80 A350s this year.Alan Joyce, left, chief executive of Australia’s Qantas Airways, says the airline can fly two Boeing Dreamliners to an overseas destination more profitably than one giant A380. Photo: william west/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Australian airlines, by geographical necessity, specialize in long-haul travel.Qantas Airways Ltd. , one of the country’s biggest, has been a steady buyer of the giant 747s and A380s over the years. Today, Alan Joyce, Qantas’s chief executive, says the airline can fly two Boeing Dreamliners to an overseas destination more profitably than one A380, transporting about the same number of passengers.

The push for more direct routes doesn’t only stem from technological innovation. Governments have opened up air access to ease congestion at big hubs and foster more convenient flights. Flights to China used to focus on Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou. Now cities such as Wuhan, Xi’an, and Hangzhou have direct international air links.

When Japan’s primary hub, Tokyo Narita, filled up, Japan’s government expanded the largely domestic airport of Haneda and opened it to overseas flights.

Some airlines still focus on big jets. Dubai, the home airport of Emirates Airline, is a perfect stopping-off place for travelers between Asia and Western Europe and North America. Emirates is the world’s biggest buyer of the A380, Airbus’s superjumbo.

Emirates President Tim Clark says that without big planes, the growth of air traffic will be constrained by airports that are reaching their limits for takeoff and landings slots. Dubai is building a huge, five-runway airport designed to eventually handle 250 million passengers a year.

“In the end, you are forced into a higher gauge of aircraft,” he says.

That isn’t the way other airlines are thinking. At an airfield near Tarbes in southern France, about 70 miles from where the A380 superjumbo made its maiden voyage 13 years ago, one of those planes is parked on the tarmac.

Singapore Airlines decided to stop using the plane, which is owned by Dr. Peters Group, a private company that finances aircraft. After looking for a new customer, the owner has decided to sell the plane for parts.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 00:43
  #683 (permalink)  
 
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That article just about contradicts every argument put forward by the QF board over the last 20 years. What ever happened to the capacity restraint argument that they were running for years?
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 04:26
  #684 (permalink)  
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Thanks for posting the article Storm Fury.

Just a little less than a year ago, the fossil Chairman claimed it was the QSA 1992 stopping the re-equipment of Qantas.
Share buy-backs in excess of $2 billion and a year later not much of substance has changed at Fort Fumble,
although it appears Little Napoleon has finally noticed what nearly every other carrier noticed a decade ago.

Today, Alan Joyce, Qantas’s chief executive, says the airline can fly two Boeing Dreamliners to an overseas destination more profitably than one A380, transporting about the same number of passengers.
What amazing insight.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 05:17
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Mid next decade Virgin will have a domestic 737 fleet age of 3 years.

QF will be sitting at over 17.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 05:59
  #686 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wheels_down View Post
Mid next decade Virgin will have a domestic 737 fleet age of 3 years.

QF will be sitting at over 17.
I suspect that after Joyce sails off into the sunset and a new CEO comes along and looks at the fleet ages they will get the shock of their life. The only aircraft not due for replacement are the 787s everthing else is getting to its use by date. Tens of billions of $$$ will be needed for fleet replacement.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 06:13
  #687 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
I suspect that after Joyce sails off into the sunset and a new CEO comes along and looks at the fleet ages they will get the shock of their life. The only aircraft not due for replacement are the 787s everthing else is getting to its use by date. Tens of billions of $$$ will be needed for fleet replacement.


The point Mr Roger Montgomery was referring to with respect to Capital Expenditure was that to maintain the fleet age at 10.2 years it needs to spend $1.3 billion. It needs to spend an additional $300 million on non flying assets.
Sweating the flying assets is one thing, but eventually they need to be replaced.
In ten years little Napoleon has done nothing.
He did order a complete fleet replacement for JQ.

With continued electronic media spend, a duplicitous media gleefully accepts chairman's lounges and countless upgrades. Olivia's office is well known in this regard. A huge expenditure to ensure their preferred narrative holds.
Look broadly at the industry, outside the home market myopia and Qantas is, under his tenure, in far worse shape than a decade ago.
Poor strategy, woeful execution and personal inadequacy makes for the perfect storm.

Time for the woodshed Little Napoleon.

Qantas need a new fleet.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 14:42
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You're dead right Neville-N and Air-BroTown have showed them up big time, both with the QF idiotic claims, of being difficult being "at the end on the line" of the globe AND with poor aircraft selection/purchases.
The tossers should have been deploying the 4-engined 747s where no one else could go... south east and west over the South Pole direct to Sth America and to Sth Africa more!
It took them a long time of watching Lan Chile's load to wake up, plus ignore and not gear up for the Brazilian Olympics and Soccer World Cup! Muppets!
Too late now and yes I know where they fly...NOW.
India... another overlooked market. I won't go on but Yes, the Board are a disgrace and the disconnection with the front line magnifies while they try and justify selling catering and the previously owned Sydney Termininal etc etc... Train wreck approaches, hold the little man's 4 mill cheque!

P.S. Rated-D, you forgot on your list - Charge all gate services and fuel charges to the parent company...
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 20:05
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P.S. Rated-D, you forgot on your list - Charge all gate services and fuel charges to the parent company...
If one takes a step back and ponders.
At privatisation QF enjoyed the youngest fleet in IATA at 6.3 years.
It had a new fleet, a simple fleet.

Despite the fossil, Leigh Clifford's protests against the Air New Zealand bailout Qantas itself benefitted from taxpayer largess to the tune of (in 1992 dollars) $1.35 billion.

Instead of levering all that advantage they squandered it.
They did have the stupidity of airport privatisation; private airports and open skies dumped capacity. Is it any wonder Max Moore-Wilton went straight from PM Howard's office to Sydney Airport?

What they chose to do was 'buy' a consultants view of the airline industry.
The Growth share Matrix, pitched by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) developed by Henderson is probably in part the rationale for Jetstar.
Conceptually simple and with zero interest on whether it works, Qantas went head long into growing the 'star' at the expense of the 'dog' funded by the cash cow',. The reader can pick which tag applied to which segment.

The problem with idiots like Boston Consulting Group is hidden in plain sight; their name 'consulting' They care little in the success as they are paid anyway.
In comes Bruce Buchanan from BCG, charged with, despite having no idea of much other than accounting, with being an airline CEO. The timing coincident with the appointment of Little Napoleon.
In a very short space of time Bruce realised that it wasn't viable and told the board so.
Dispatched by Little Napoleon replaced with another accountant and consultant, Jayne (Carla) Hrdlicka became the CEO, now gone replaced with another accountant. See the theme?

Meanwhile in all probability the materiality threshold has grown as a rapidly growing 'star' Jetstar acquired more aircraft, meaning the parent needed to fit more of the bill.


Yes, the Board are a disgrace and the disconnection with the front line magnifies while they try and justify selling catering and the previously owned Sydney Termininal etc
If one spends time actually investigating the source of profit for Qantas it is apparent that the source of profit is supplemented by selling the silverware. The buildings in Coward Street, the long term and favourable terminal leases and more latterly the catering business.

Little Napoleon has made himself a wealthy man and considering his history that is an achievement, but for someone who would have been very reliant on a community in a very poor part of Ireland, to leave the community of an airline in far worse shape when he leaves is testament to a character ridiculed with personal inadequacy.

Mr Goyder if you read this, Qantas need a broom through the place, starting at the board room and executive management suites.

Qantas need a new fleet.

Last edited by Rated De; 1st Jan 2019 at 07:00.
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 06:58
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Has Qantas been run down so badly that a 747 has to be flown to HongKong for an engine strut repair?
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 08:10
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
Has Qantas been run down so badly that a 747 has to be flown to HongKong for an engine strut repair?
Maybe. OJU flew BNE/HKG yesterday for maintenance. Who’d have thunk that a few years ago? Ronald John would be having a fit if he knew.
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 11:22
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Australian airlines, by geographical necessity, specialize in long-haul travel.
Hardly! Only one has a real International arm. Coincidentally it's the one of the that elected to use B747's and A380's. Of the other two, one uses B777's the other B787's they were given by the airline that elected to use the B747 and A380 and which has suddenly realised they are the wrong aircraft, and has "discovered" the B787. Looks like the one that really specializes in long haul travel took the longest to wise up.
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 11:48
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Of the other two, one uses B777's
Doesn't that one also use A330s on long haul international operation, or have they stopped already?
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 19:00
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Hardly! Only one has a real International arm. Coincidentally it's the one of the that elected to use B747's and A380's. Of the other two, one uses B777's the other B787's they were given by the airline that elected to use the B747 and A380 and which has suddenly realised they are the wrong aircraft, and has "discovered" the B787. Looks like the one that really specializes in long haul travel took the longest to wise up.
Precisely.

They did however enrich the executive suites in Coward Street with amazingly well timed option vesting dates.
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Old 1st Jan 2019, 19:23
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
Precisely.

They did however enrich the executive suites in Coward Street with amazingly well timed option vesting dates.
I think you are alluding to the precision timing schedule, to the day allows one to pick the lowest price possible.
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Old 2nd Jan 2019, 03:24
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Originally Posted by Ken Borough View Post
Doesn't that one also use A330s on long haul international operation, or have they stopped already?
Yes, forgot that, A330's MEL/SYD - HKG and seasonally east coast - Fiji (although that one's hardly long haul), so this "specialist long hauler' flies to just two destinations - but has only ever used twins to do them.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 03:16
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No QF 25 to Haneda Friday night or tonight, well oiled machine is functioning well.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 03:20
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Originally Posted by dragon man View Post
No QF 25 to Haneda Friday night or tonight, well oiled machine is functioning well.

What just left at a few minutes ago at 3.14pm? Last nights 9.35pm flight???

Great aircraft those B747's.... I'm sure the passengers were happy about the 18 hour delay....

Is it my imagination (or FR24's) or have 5x QF25 flights been a NOGO in the last couple of weeks???
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 03:30
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They are a great aircraft , however Qantas don’t have enough of them to fly the routes they are doing , plus inadequate spares, engineering manpower and lastly downtime to keep on top of issues.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 03:54
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Originally Posted by Dee Vee View Post
What just left at a few minutes ago at 3.14pm? Last nights 9.35pm flight???

Great aircraft those B747's.... I'm sure the passengers were happy about the 18 hour delay....

Is it my imagination (or FR24's) or have 5x QF25 flights been a NOGO in the last couple of weeks???
Nobody to complain to as all the 'management' is all on holiday.


Taking a step back, given the enormous problems with the fleet, the inability to accurately project the requisite training and retirement paths leading to crew shortages and flying school announcements are all suggestive that this airline is rudderless. How many line pilots has the flying school produced?
Desperate operational staff holding it all together, while Little Napoleon comforts himself with family at his little get away.
Little Napoleon standing resplendent on his poop deck while the ship wanders in aimless circles.
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