Qantas Fleet Order Speculation
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It is interesting that the chief No proponents on Qrewroom are: GD the chief negotiator of the failed EBA 8 where he was so out of touch with pilot desires that 80% voted against it with a record vote return; DB and MB who were co- chief negotiators in the failed EBA renewal that resulted in a near lockout and the whole matter going to FWA for a workplace determination which resulted in losses for LH pilots and rotating blank lines as an own goal.
So much for their sense of the industrial scene and LH pilot sentiments.
PM's sense of the industrial world absolutely co-incides with his own needs and aspirations which are not met by his achievements in the industrial world.
So much for their sense of the industrial scene and LH pilot sentiments.
PM's sense of the industrial world absolutely co-incides with his own needs and aspirations which are not met by his achievements in the industrial world.
Last edited by wombat watcher; 10th Jul 2015 at 20:27.
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When I first saw the detail of the proposed contract I thought 90% YES. 
I never expected to see the 787 included within our existing contract. The fact that that is what is on offer, albeit with some changes to the way the pay is structured, would have almost universal approval. It seems though that you can't please all of the people all of the time, or even some of the time it seems.
It's obvious that the ones with the least to lose, those comfortably ensconced on four engined fleets in senior positions, are the most vocal critics. Hopefully there's enough of the junior guys who see this as a win, with a huge potential of loss if a NO gets up, will get it over the line.
With this in mind, I still think it will get through, hopefully comfortably. Anything more than 60% is a bonus, but I'd be surprised if it's less than that.
I never expected to see the 787 included within our existing contract. The fact that that is what is on offer, albeit with some changes to the way the pay is structured, would have almost universal approval. It seems though that you can't please all of the people all of the time, or even some of the time it seems.
It's obvious that the ones with the least to lose, those comfortably ensconced on four engined fleets in senior positions, are the most vocal critics. Hopefully there's enough of the junior guys who see this as a win, with a huge potential of loss if a NO gets up, will get it over the line.
With this in mind, I still think it will get through, hopefully comfortably. Anything more than 60% is a bonus, but I'd be surprised if it's less than that.
It's obvious that the ones with the least to lose, those comfortably ensconced on four engined fleets in senior positions, are the most vocal critics. Hopefully there's enough of the junior guys who see this as a win, with a huge potential of loss if a NO gets up, will get it over the line.
The same can't be said for a number of others. 
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IsDon, the first part of that is a very sweeping statement and as I fall into that group, I advise that I voted for the Agreement - as I'm sure (from numerous conversations) so did many of my senior colleagues.
It doesn't mean there are some of our more senior brethren, such as yourself, that can see past their own circumstances and vote YES for what is clearly a win for those more junior than themselves.
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John Gissing has openly said that management are not interested in the C Series. The delayed certification, untested technology and the fact an engine went boom on a test aircraft earlier this year has not made Qantas want to put any ships on the order books with Bombardier.
A319/318 on the other hand...
Or even the Embraer E2...
But honestly I would bet the house that even they don't know what they want to do for a 717 replacement. So a C Series order is unlikely, but not impossible.
Fuel-Off
A319/318 on the other hand...
Or even the Embraer E2...
But honestly I would bet the house that even they don't know what they want to do for a 717 replacement. So a C Series order is unlikely, but not impossible.
Fuel-Off
Where do you place bets on this stuff......
EMB show case the E2 mock up in SYD and QF sends a team.
Cobham get the 190 up and running with at least 3 in their own colour over 3 years for fraggle rock.
AC trade 20 E190s back into BOE for 737Max orders, BOE (Were) shopping them around.
Delta take all the AirTran 717 on lease from BOE in a three way with WN. They will have 88 (or 57%) of all produced and can add as many as they want without scope clause issues.
BOE strikes a deal for the AC E190s and 30 B739's to go to Delta subject to new pilot contract. Pilots knock this back last week. Delta scrap the deals.
BOE looking for homes for 20 mid life trade in (cheap) E190s, Delta want the capacity and can add 717's as much as they want and QF are actively looking for an exit when time is up. (Its not the airframe that's the problem but the engines)
So what's the bet that Cobham will now get a new deal for the crews, how much for the E190.. 20 of them, slightly used in Canada...... in Qlink colours.
As said QF are gun shy of new models since both the A3latey and 7late7 deals, let someone else work out the probs with the C-series.
where do I place my money......
EMB show case the E2 mock up in SYD and QF sends a team.
Cobham get the 190 up and running with at least 3 in their own colour over 3 years for fraggle rock.
AC trade 20 E190s back into BOE for 737Max orders, BOE (Were) shopping them around.
Delta take all the AirTran 717 on lease from BOE in a three way with WN. They will have 88 (or 57%) of all produced and can add as many as they want without scope clause issues.
BOE strikes a deal for the AC E190s and 30 B739's to go to Delta subject to new pilot contract. Pilots knock this back last week. Delta scrap the deals.
BOE looking for homes for 20 mid life trade in (cheap) E190s, Delta want the capacity and can add 717's as much as they want and QF are actively looking for an exit when time is up. (Its not the airframe that's the problem but the engines)
So what's the bet that Cobham will now get a new deal for the crews, how much for the E190.. 20 of them, slightly used in Canada...... in Qlink colours.
As said QF are gun shy of new models since both the A3latey and 7late7 deals, let someone else work out the probs with the C-series.
where do I place my money......
Another big question: how long will QF continue to pay a UK contractor now they have their very own, wholly owned, 100 seat jet operator.......
That question has been asked to management directly and the response was simply that there is a longstanding history with Cobham and they don't foresee and changes to that arrangement in the near future.
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John Gissing has openly said that management are not interested in the C Series. The delayed certification, untested technology and the fact an engine went boom on a test aircraft earlier this year has not made Qantas want to put any ships on the order books with Bombardier.
Boeing Forecasts Rising Demand for Commercial Airline Pilots, Technicians
Boeing is forecasting huge demand for pilots and engineers over the next 20 years which strengthens my view that it's important to pass this EBA, get the new fleet (B787-9) ordered and then in successive EBA's we claw back the important conditions. The "supply & demand" conditions aren't strong enough yet to re-jig this EBA.
Boeing Forecasts Rising Demand for Commercial Airline Pilots, Technicians
Nearly 1.2 million new pilots, technicians needed over next 20 years
Strongest demand in the Asia Pacific region
Enlarge image - Boeing Forecasts Rising Demand for Commercial Airline Pilots, Technicians
enlarge image click to enlarge
Boeing [NYSE: BA] today released a new forecast showing continued strong demand for commercial airline pilots and maintenance technicians as the world's airlines add 38,000 airplanes to the global fleet over the next 20 years.
Boeing's 2015 Pilot and Technician Outlook projects that between 2015 and 2034, the world will require 558,000 new commercial airline pilots and 609,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians.
"To help address this need, Boeing trained last year a record number of pilots and technicians at 17 training campuses around the globe and has invested in a comprehensive Pilot Development Program to train early stage pilots to become qualified commercial airline pilots," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "We will continue to increase the amount of training we provide, enabling our customers to satisfy the world's growing appetite for air travel."
"The challenge of meeting the global demand for airline professionals will not be solved by one company alone," Carbary added. "Aircraft manufacturers, airlines, training equipment manufacturers, training delivery organizations, regulatory agencies and educational institutions are all stepping up to meet the increasing need to train and certify pilots and technicians."
Boeing's 2015 Outlook projects continued increases in pilot demand, up more than 4 percent compared to the 2014 Outlook. For maintenance technicians, demand increased approximately 5 percent.
Overall global demand for these skilled resources will be driven by continued economic expansion, resulting in an average requirement for about 28,000 new pilots and more than 30,000 new technicians every year.
The 20-year projected demand for new pilots and technicians by region is:
Asia Pacific – 226,000 pilots and 238,000 technicians
Europe – 95,000 pilots and 101,000 technicians
North America – 95,000 pilots and 113,000 technicians
Latin America – 47,000 pilots and 47,000 technicians
Middle East – 60,000 pilots and 66,000 technicians
Africa – 18,000 pilots and 22,000 technicians
Russia / CIS – 17,000 pilots and 22,000 technicians
The Pilot and Technician Outlook is Boeing's long-term forecast of the demand for pilots and technicians and its estimate of personnel needed to fly and maintain the tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners expected to be produced over the next 20 years. The forecast is published annually to factor in changing market forces affecting the industry. Boeing shares the outlook with the public to inform airlines, suppliers and the financial community of trends in the industry.
Boeing Forecasts Rising Demand for Commercial Airline Pilots, Technicians
Nearly 1.2 million new pilots, technicians needed over next 20 years
Strongest demand in the Asia Pacific region
Enlarge image - Boeing Forecasts Rising Demand for Commercial Airline Pilots, Technicians
enlarge image click to enlarge
Boeing [NYSE: BA] today released a new forecast showing continued strong demand for commercial airline pilots and maintenance technicians as the world's airlines add 38,000 airplanes to the global fleet over the next 20 years.
Boeing's 2015 Pilot and Technician Outlook projects that between 2015 and 2034, the world will require 558,000 new commercial airline pilots and 609,000 new commercial airline maintenance technicians.
"To help address this need, Boeing trained last year a record number of pilots and technicians at 17 training campuses around the globe and has invested in a comprehensive Pilot Development Program to train early stage pilots to become qualified commercial airline pilots," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "We will continue to increase the amount of training we provide, enabling our customers to satisfy the world's growing appetite for air travel."
"The challenge of meeting the global demand for airline professionals will not be solved by one company alone," Carbary added. "Aircraft manufacturers, airlines, training equipment manufacturers, training delivery organizations, regulatory agencies and educational institutions are all stepping up to meet the increasing need to train and certify pilots and technicians."
Boeing's 2015 Outlook projects continued increases in pilot demand, up more than 4 percent compared to the 2014 Outlook. For maintenance technicians, demand increased approximately 5 percent.
Overall global demand for these skilled resources will be driven by continued economic expansion, resulting in an average requirement for about 28,000 new pilots and more than 30,000 new technicians every year.
The 20-year projected demand for new pilots and technicians by region is:
Asia Pacific – 226,000 pilots and 238,000 technicians
Europe – 95,000 pilots and 101,000 technicians
North America – 95,000 pilots and 113,000 technicians
Latin America – 47,000 pilots and 47,000 technicians
Middle East – 60,000 pilots and 66,000 technicians
Africa – 18,000 pilots and 22,000 technicians
Russia / CIS – 17,000 pilots and 22,000 technicians
The Pilot and Technician Outlook is Boeing's long-term forecast of the demand for pilots and technicians and its estimate of personnel needed to fly and maintain the tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners expected to be produced over the next 20 years. The forecast is published annually to factor in changing market forces affecting the industry. Boeing shares the outlook with the public to inform airlines, suppliers and the financial community of trends in the industry.
I wonder if the forecast is ever trimmed down to factor in reduced maintenance schedule of plastic aircraft and the inevitable, eventual introduction of reduced pilot/pilot-less aircraft.
Just by doing a quick search of jobs out there for engineers on Boeing and Airbus type aircraft, there seems to be the opposite of a shortage going on.
This will surely be compounded by the mass introduction of B787's and A350's and the MRO's currently geared up to do heavy maintenance on the previous generation of aircraft, 330's, 747s, 737s, a320s etc having empty hangars for stretches at a time.
Just by doing a quick search of jobs out there for engineers on Boeing and Airbus type aircraft, there seems to be the opposite of a shortage going on.
This will surely be compounded by the mass introduction of B787's and A350's and the MRO's currently geared up to do heavy maintenance on the previous generation of aircraft, 330's, 747s, 737s, a320s etc having empty hangars for stretches at a time.
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The Pilot and Technician Outlook is Boeing's long-term forecast of the demand for pilots and technicians and its estimate of personnel needed to fly and maintain the tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners expected to be produced over the next 20 years.
With the dumbing down of the "technician" by industry and regulators alike what percentage of these "technicians" would be trained and experienced enough to be able to certify for the maintenance performed by themselves and those that require supervision. CASA and the local operators are perfect examples here for the race to the bottom to dilute the industry experience required.
Figures are rubbery at best.