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Qantas Fleet Order Speculation

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Qantas Fleet Order Speculation

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Old 29th May 2015, 12:40
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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Mohican, the document you quote is a long way removed from reality, which means your assumtpions are also incorrect.

Everything will be cool, don't sweat it.
Kubin rock climber is on the money - this package is better than most thought it would be and AIPA didn't join the race to the bottom.
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Old 29th May 2015, 13:34
  #202 (permalink)  
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Thumbs up

I think QF is only looking at a very small number of 78-9's. Probably 10-12
You're probably right initially and I think what they've told the investor briefing is part of their narrative too. I don't think they want to spook either the investors or the competitors to tell them that there's 50 787s coming in the next 5-7 years.

QF still need an A330 replacement in the medium term (out beyond about 2020) and they have nothing else on order that can do the job. 787s will fill that niche nicely. Hence my thoughts that we'll end up with all 50 but not all of them are expansion slots.
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Old 30th May 2015, 06:10
  #203 (permalink)  
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Skymark

Hi All,


Interesting enough, the rumours surrounding the SkyMark A330s has been going around for the last few weeks.


Could this be the answer for the short term network expansion to Asia or increased frequency with more capacity? EBH/I are/were International Configuration, so what is taking their place otherwise if not a -300?
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Old 30th May 2015, 07:46
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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So what is happening, or happened to EBH/I?
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Old 30th May 2015, 08:01
  #205 (permalink)  
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From my understanding, they are being returned to the leasing company as they were always a short term lease. The aircraft will then find there way back to Australia as Australian Air Force troop transporters.
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Old 31st May 2015, 00:06
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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B scale

The reality is that the 787 falls between the A330 and the 767 in terms of a replacement. So it can't be compared to 744/A380 pay.

I look forward to seeing an apples with apples comparison with the new B scale and how it would compare with 767 pay on the LH award with the flying it will realistically be flying.
Strangely that's what Strambi wanted a few years back.

The fact that the company want to attempt to remove overtime tells you what kind of flying it will do.

Qantas will this year make a billion dollars and two billion the next year . I can't see the rush to sign a deal and thankfully the pilots are in a good position now.
The AIPA survey that was conducted during the 2.5 billion dollar loss, VR and RINs is now outdated.
Unless the deal is good enough given the current climate, it won't get voted up.

Pilots are also conscious that any new type conditions will rapidly replace the current award. Potentially the 787 could simply be a replacement aircraft only.

So unless you'd be content working under the new type agreement now until age 65 and possibly beyond you wouldn't vote for it.

Hoping the deal is a good one. At least the August profit announcement will be good in the absence of any firm orders.
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Old 31st May 2015, 01:26
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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That's the dumbest post I have ever read.
You I'm afraid are living in the past. There are hundreds of pilots hoping for this new type and some career progression. This agreement and the future of a viable pilot career in Qantas is riding on this. If it doesn't get up you can consign yourself to obscurity. The new T&Cs of the 787 are similar to how the biggest fleet in Qantas, that's right the one that makes the most , the 737 is run. There are at least a hundred current 737 Captains and at least as many F/Os that will bid for this new aircraft and with that a change in culture. The Captains will all have at least 25 years seniority and most started with long haul. Look at the COM, it's not hard to see where their loyalties will lie.
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Old 31st May 2015, 02:34
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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Ok, after placing all the available rumour information into the Ruprecht-2000 Number Cruncher, here are the front running rumours....

Night credits: modified for 2-3 pilot ops. Minimal or none for 4 pilots.
Overtime: Nil as part of a pattern. Extra if you extend.
Pay: rubbery figures indicate an hourly rate of pay to place it HIGHER than A330 for bidding purposes. Fewer tiers of pay (I didn't need the computer to predict this...)
Rotating seniority: yes. Cue end-of-civilisation wailing.
Lower min guarantee.
MDC: insufficient info.

Now, let's all wait and see what transpires. Remember, this is a rumour network.

ruprecht.
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Old 31st May 2015, 04:02
  #209 (permalink)  
 
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Agree above is correct. Comparing a MLB/LAX/SYD pattern at present A330 rate plus Overtime compared to the duty credits at $300 an hour under this new system would see a drop in pay of approx 30%. Additionally you will have to fly approx .8 of the Lax pattern extra to make the Same pay hours as we presently get. The savings for Qantas in this assuming that all pilots end up on it are massive.
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Old 31st May 2015, 04:13
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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I sincerely wish you the best and hope you get all 50, plus some 777s in the 20s.

A strong and growing qantas is good for us all.
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Old 31st May 2015, 04:27
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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B scale

Troo believer.
The 787 is not the 737. Why would you make it a SH vs LH debate?
It's totally different flying on totally different aircraft.

But you cannot compare a 737/a320 to the 787.just as I said you can't compare the 787 to the A380/747. It's not like for like.
Even Borghetti has suggested so in the media.

It's such an illogical and immature aspersion.

Don't worry you'll get a chance to fly the 787 one day. Hopefully that will assist wearing down both chips on your shoulders.

In the mean time the LH pilot group will decide if the terms and conditions are suitable to Fly a new type and sensibly negotiate an acceptable deal.

Thank goodness irrational,industrially naive panic merchants like yourself are not involved with the deal. Some of us would not sell our first born for a quick seat change.

I've every confidence that AIPA will put forward a sound deal.

As I have suggested earlier, an inadequate offer will not be accepted before billion dollar profit announcements are made.

As others have suggested the 787 more than likely will only be a replacement aircraft.
Any deal has to be palatable to ALL long haul pilots, flying ultra long haul,night sectors over multiple time zones till retirement age.
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Old 31st May 2015, 04:44
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Comparing the 787 to A330 on an MEL/LAX/SYD seems a bit silly as the A330 doesn't do it.

The best comparison would be to look at a complete proposed roster of what the 787 will likely do (LAX, DFW etc) v what the A330 currently does (HKG, SIN, etc). Look at the overall credits, duty times, days off, TAFB etc.
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Old 31st May 2015, 04:53
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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It's actually not silly the 787 hourly rate is based upon the current 330 rate. I'm trying to compare apples with apples.
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:04
  #214 (permalink)  
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fish

Rather than comparing it to what is currently available to a select few (an outcome that is likely to decrease year on year if this EA doesn't do the job), perhaps we should just look at whether this EA is a 'reasonable' deal for flying this aircraft (787) over the proposed and reasonably foreseeable routes.

Given what we previously agreed to fly the 767 for, this proposed deal for the 787s strikes me as eminently reasonable.
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:25
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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Rotating seniority: yes. Cue end-of-civilisation wailing
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Old 31st May 2015, 06:36
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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What I think you should focus on is not the pay per pattern. IMO this was always coming. What I'm concerned about is what I believe will be the massive savings to Qantas down the track and the fact that I believe no credit will be given to the pilot group as offsets in upcoming EBAs. ie they will want more offsets for pay rises in the coming years.
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Old 31st May 2015, 07:33
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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Some of the 744 pilots are working themselves into a lather about 787 pay not being equal to the 744.....why would /should it be? As for being RIN-ed onto the 787 - the senior pilots on the 744 can displace to the 380 or take VR as available or go to the A330 - the latter being the next best option if the 787 doesn't come at all!!

PS I heard MDC of 5:30 applies to the 787 which is pretty good (important) I reckon.

Hey dragonman what does this even mean? "What I'm concerned about is what I believe will be the massive savings to Qantas down the track and the fact that I believe no credit will be given to the pilot group as offsets in upcoming EBAs" What kind of "credit" do you want? Do you want to negotiate the next few EBAs now? How about we do one at a time...
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Old 31st May 2015, 07:52
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Fear campaigner I am a long haul pilot. I have flown both long and short haul and have a mature understanding of your thinking. This will be the new benchmark. What's your rank and type and let's all draw our own conclusions. Heard it all before.
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Old 31st May 2015, 08:24
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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Fearcampaign: you might not sell your own children but it's not fun watching you and others EAT THEIR OWN CHILDREN! Keep up the self entitlement... 👍
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Old 31st May 2015, 08:35
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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Some of us would not sell our first born for a quick seat change.
With 20 year Captains being demoted to F/O that's the funniest thing I've read in a long time.

Thanks for making my day!
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