Pilot-less Airliners
A thought provoking article...
...from The Economist, addressing the next wave in automation and the attendant job losses:
The future of jobs: The onrushing wave | The Economist
The future of jobs: The onrushing wave | The Economist
The reality is that the university boffins rarely get it right. These sort of predictions have always been wrong and the reality is that nothing actually changes. Just look at what they were saying about the year 2000 in the 1970's.
On average, I cross the ITCZ eight times a month and operate into and out of airports in Asia, including during the monsoon.
The day that a robot can consistently operate and interpret a weather radar, detect and make that call about weather ahead and avoid it if required, I'll take a ride on a pilotless airliner.
The day that a robot can consistently operate and interpret a weather radar, detect and make that call about weather ahead and avoid it if required, I'll take a ride on a pilotless airliner.
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Its going to be a very long time before the general public will accept an un-manned passenger aircraft.
But the general public are ready to accept unmanned freighters right now.
Thats why FedEx are in RD for the next generation of freighters. They have been doing RD for about 5yrs now.
You will see these unmanned freighters fly long haul over the pacific and atlantic oceans (with FedEx).
The aircraft will have pilots sit right beside ATC guys/gals and the pilot will be in control for the take-offs and landings, and develop from there.
Take a look at MDA in Richmond, Vancouver, Canada.
I'm in the middle of my aviation career and i dont expect to see unmanned freighters in service with FedEx until my retirement in 20yrs(if I make it that far).
But the general public are ready to accept unmanned freighters right now.
Thats why FedEx are in RD for the next generation of freighters. They have been doing RD for about 5yrs now.
You will see these unmanned freighters fly long haul over the pacific and atlantic oceans (with FedEx).
The aircraft will have pilots sit right beside ATC guys/gals and the pilot will be in control for the take-offs and landings, and develop from there.
Take a look at MDA in Richmond, Vancouver, Canada.
I'm in the middle of my aviation career and i dont expect to see unmanned freighters in service with FedEx until my retirement in 20yrs(if I make it that far).
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't these unmanned drones currently need a CATII ILS to be able to land safely because there is too much lag for a controller on the ground to land it safely?
The other thing too is, i know in the Surveying industry, the technology isn't good enough for a GPS to give an accurate height measurement, the faster you move, the more innacurate the height measurement becomes so that's probably another thing that will need to be overcome before we completely have pilotless aircraft.
I reckon this will have to happen in the next 30 years, on long haul flights instead of carrying 2 second officers/relief pilots, once you're in the cruise, they will just have a 1 man flight deck, but for take offs and landing have a Captain and FO still.
The other thing too is, i know in the Surveying industry, the technology isn't good enough for a GPS to give an accurate height measurement, the faster you move, the more innacurate the height measurement becomes so that's probably another thing that will need to be overcome before we completely have pilotless aircraft.
I reckon this will have to happen in the next 30 years, on long haul flights instead of carrying 2 second officers/relief pilots, once you're in the cruise, they will just have a 1 man flight deck, but for take offs and landing have a Captain and FO still.
Some of you guys are thinking in today's terms, this pilot-less aircraft scenario might not be for another 50 yrs even though it's possible right now but there's too many stumbling blocks today, today as we make today's decisions based on today's technology today's knowledge but most likely not in the year 2060 based on tomorrows knowledge:-).
Remember aviation has come a long way in the last 50 year block 1960-2010 for Eg. If I where proposing GPS & all that it entails on PPRune back in 1960(hypothetically of course) then I would have been burnt at the stake (like I mentioned in another post) for being a dreamer & a nutter yet aviation started & continues to be based on dreams, mankind has dreamt of flying like a bird for a very long time & it won't stop at pilot-less airliners am sure it will go way beyond that long after we have all flown our last mission!
Wmk2
Remember aviation has come a long way in the last 50 year block 1960-2010 for Eg. If I where proposing GPS & all that it entails on PPRune back in 1960(hypothetically of course) then I would have been burnt at the stake (like I mentioned in another post) for being a dreamer & a nutter yet aviation started & continues to be based on dreams, mankind has dreamt of flying like a bird for a very long time & it won't stop at pilot-less airliners am sure it will go way beyond that long after we have all flown our last mission!
Wmk2
Pilotless
Whilst going pilotless, how about cabin crewless as well?
Technology has been around in the form of vending machines for years
.
Then there's the smart robot, I think might get better manners out of some! (Directed at the minority of crabby blokes n bitches).
Whoops hope I haven't given them any ideas?
Everytime I think of pilotless aircraft why does flying high and the inflatable pilot come to mind? Roger, over, under, out!
Technology has been around in the form of vending machines for years
.Then there's the smart robot, I think might get better manners out of some! (Directed at the minority of crabby blokes n bitches).
Whoops hope I haven't given them any ideas?
Everytime I think of pilotless aircraft why does flying high and the inflatable pilot come to mind? Roger, over, under, out!
Pilotless airliners will one day be a reality. As driverless cars and trains etc become more the norm it will become a more acceptable concept. Currently Airbus and Boeing are developing two pilot aircraft which are intended to be in service for up to the next 40 - 50 years. I can see the next logical step in our industry will be dropping the requirement for two crew.
I can imagine the airlines would love to be able to only have ONE fully qualified pilot onboard with perhaps a 'cadet' or 'radio operator' as an assistant who may have access to some sort of autoland feature should the main pilot become incapacitated. I am sure though that I will long be retired by the time this sort of thing becomes a reality.
I know that post 9/11 there was talk of a system that could be activated from a secure ground position that would enable an aircraft to be commandeered by a ground agency and landed without any further input by persons on the aircraft. The theory was that in a 'hijack' situation the controls on the aircraft would be able to be overridden to a landing. No reason why a system like this couldn't one day be used as a back up to the one qualified crew scenario.
I can imagine the airlines would love to be able to only have ONE fully qualified pilot onboard with perhaps a 'cadet' or 'radio operator' as an assistant who may have access to some sort of autoland feature should the main pilot become incapacitated. I am sure though that I will long be retired by the time this sort of thing becomes a reality.
I know that post 9/11 there was talk of a system that could be activated from a secure ground position that would enable an aircraft to be commandeered by a ground agency and landed without any further input by persons on the aircraft. The theory was that in a 'hijack' situation the controls on the aircraft would be able to be overridden to a landing. No reason why a system like this couldn't one day be used as a back up to the one qualified crew scenario.
...also, the robot will have to be capable of endlessly and eloquently bitching about its airline's management.
'Darty' one doesn't need to be a robot or even in the air to bitch about the management of any airline, I mean look at the pages on PPrune they are full of joyful words for CEO's!
Robots would soon pick up on our ability to bag management & in their case (robots) they would bitch about the cheap oil they use to lube them up ready for a right royal shafting!
Hello my name is bitching Betty, I'm yr cabin manager & I am the latest bio Flt Attendant here to make yr flight comfy & safe so please turn off that cell Ph otherwise I will plug into you & send 100000 volts down yr spine!
Wmk2
Robots would soon pick up on our ability to bag management & in their case (robots) they would bitch about the cheap oil they use to lube them up ready for a right royal shafting!Hello my name is bitching Betty, I'm yr cabin manager & I am the latest bio Flt Attendant here to make yr flight comfy & safe so please turn off that cell Ph otherwise I will plug into you & send 100000 volts down yr spine!
Wmk2
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I think I'll wait for version 2.0.
Interesting why cargo ships are not pilot and crew less, you would have thought this kind of "automashion" would have taken off (oops) and yielded shipping executives even bigger dollars.
Selling pilotless airliners to the public is easy once the emergency override controls take the form of a PS3 controller - but that won't stop passengers from fighting over who has the most Microsoft Pilotless Airline Flightsim V9 experience. Airline executives should also take a leaf out of the ancient Air China's books and bestow it on the rest of the civilized world - "We clash, you die".
Airline executives will probably argue that if anything goes wrong with their pilotless aircraft then there will be a 24/7 manned ground based control centre that can remotely take over the flight computers and land the plane safely, that is of course that it hasn't been outsourced to some third world country, or even worse, automated as well.
Anyways, I'm off to pilot my bicycle.
Interesting why cargo ships are not pilot and crew less, you would have thought this kind of "automashion" would have taken off (oops) and yielded shipping executives even bigger dollars.
Selling pilotless airliners to the public is easy once the emergency override controls take the form of a PS3 controller - but that won't stop passengers from fighting over who has the most Microsoft Pilotless Airline Flightsim V9 experience. Airline executives should also take a leaf out of the ancient Air China's books and bestow it on the rest of the civilized world - "We clash, you die".
Airline executives will probably argue that if anything goes wrong with their pilotless aircraft then there will be a 24/7 manned ground based control centre that can remotely take over the flight computers and land the plane safely, that is of course that it hasn't been outsourced to some third world country, or even worse, automated as well.
Anyways, I'm off to pilot my bicycle.
Perhaps the memories of QF 32 will have to fade somewhat before this gains any traction.
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Nothing else to say, but it is coming. Hands on flying and piloting will be for pleasure in the future, not for employment.
The fact that 40% of the USAF fleet is made up of UAV's is telling enough. And that has occurred in the last 10 years. Where will they be in another 10 years?
Once they successfully prove safe ops on freight carrying pilotless aircraft, the next step will be to turn to commercial passenger aircraft. Just look at Amazon's proposal to transport goods using small drones. Once the legalities of indemnity and airspace,etc are sorted, this will be the future, or something very similar.
Those kids being born now will possibly be the last generation where an airborne flying career is achievable, but certainly not their own children.
The fact that 40% of the USAF fleet is made up of UAV's is telling enough. And that has occurred in the last 10 years. Where will they be in another 10 years?
Once they successfully prove safe ops on freight carrying pilotless aircraft, the next step will be to turn to commercial passenger aircraft. Just look at Amazon's proposal to transport goods using small drones. Once the legalities of indemnity and airspace,etc are sorted, this will be the future, or something very similar.
Those kids being born now will possibly be the last generation where an airborne flying career is achievable, but certainly not their own children.
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Single Pilot Airliners
Huh I was just talking about this today with a mate... I envisage in a few decades that we'll have single pilot aircraft, firstly with a fully qualified pilot at the front, operating as a pilot does now. Then in a few more decades that pilot will only be there for takeoff and landing and emergencies - being relegated to more of an IT manager/flight attendant role... Drinks anyone? 
Yes 'dogs x 2" that's strangely correct:-) When you look at it now once upon a time there where pilots in control of the flying machine where you did most of the actual flying/navigating & had to use yr brains just to get from AtoB with all engines running. These days a pilot & I use that term somewhat loosely is fast becoming a systems monitor & puppet so that leaves just one avenue left, the pilot-less flying machine................it's coming might not be now or even in the next 20 yrs or so but it's coming as greed alone will see to that
Wmk2
Wmk2
The fact that 40% of the USAF fleet is made up of UAV's is telling enough.
A few minutes research tells me that the USAF has around 5,551 aircraft as of September 2012, with around 700 UAV/RPVs. That would be around 13% of their fleet.
The technology is almost there but the will is not. How many driverless train systems are there around the world with this being a proven reliable technology?
Passengers will always want someone "at the front" who has a vested interest in getting the aircraft safely on the ground.
Pilotless airliners will one day be a reality. As driverless cars and trains etc become more the norm
We could easily get rid of all but one cabin crew on all aircraft NOW, especially short haul where pax can serve themselves or BYO. Why doesn't this happen?
Why don't cargo ships steam from port to holding waypoint near port ready for the marine pilots to bring them in to harbour? Technically possible NOW but not done.
Single pilot on short sectors I can see as likely on a trial basis until the first heart attack.
Remember supersonic aircraft were going to be the future but were killed off by states (countries) banning supersonic flight over their territory. The same could happen with RPV (remote piloted aircraft).
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Pilot-less Airliners
Personally, I'm not going anywhere unless there's a grey haired bespectacled dude with 4 Bars on his shoulders sitting up front tyvm. We all know that computers fly the aeroplane now...we also know the pilots get paid to fly the aeroplane when the computer breaks. And the computer will always break, sooner or later.