Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Worldwide > Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
Reload this Page >

MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

MERGED: Alan's still not happy......

Old 30th Jun 2014, 10:28
  #4521 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 119
So under the current arrangement, Emirates could upgauge the Dubai Singapore Brisbane return service to a 380, and Qantas drop brisbane singapore return, but Emirates would need an increase in traffic rights to as suggested extend the Dubai Hong Kong service to Brisbane?
Boe787 is offline  
Old 30th Jun 2014, 11:40
  #4522 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 835
The worst Jetstar domestic down 3.2% and jetstar international down 4.6%. Standby for August 28 and the full year results. Il go around $1.5 billion. Very ugly I think.
Very beautiful for Elaine though, for it is obvious proof that his demands for change have been nothing short of needed and this latest triumph is evidence that his strategies need ramping up if Qantas is to survive at all.

If all else fails, a complete lack of ability to look facts in the face will see us (Management, not the Company) through.....

Tima: Not sure QF has that many chips left!!!! I did like the 'sinkhole' effect you got in the wheel with Jet* - why is it you can see it but those paid millions can't?
V-Jet is offline  
Old 30th Jun 2014, 18:25
  #4523 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: London-Thailand-Australia
Age: 10
Posts: 1,057
why is it you can see it but those paid millions can't?
I think a lot of people on here have seen it coming for a while now VJet, including yourself, not just me, and none of us are paid millions.

I battle on because none of the staff did anything wrong, particularly the operational staff. OK, some of the senior pilots earn a good wack, they deserve it, it's the way it is for all legacy airlines who have been around for nearly 100 years, but they are productive and would fly 900 hours a year if the management ordered the right fleet in the first place. Instead, here we are in 2014 sharing out 600 hours a year roughly, for mainline pilots because of the poor fleet decisions going back to 2005, betting the farm on what were essentially "experimental" aircraft and both were very late. Not one fat cat manger, all clearly lacking "common business sense" could see that they needed to order in small numbers "proven technology" (B777) to protect the established LH business. Anyway, we have been over and over this on here many times... it didn't happen even when they were offered B777s only a couple of years back. What pi_ _'s me off is the fact AJ & co turned their bad mistakes around to make the operational staff look bad claiming the pilots etc are too expensive and that they are non productive.... which is just plain wrong. They shirked responsibility for their poor decisions, blatantly front loading all the redundancy costs, Jetstar costs etc onto this years results destroying good peoples lives along the way, and to make it worse, bonus's all round next year for saving money, just a horrible way to do business.

Why? Because Jetstar International/Asia was going to save the day... hindsight is a wonderful thing, now we know it was all pie in the sky stuff, LC and AJ failed. The media fell for it, (not their fault) but the well paid "aviation/market analysts" fell for it or went along with it, not one of them setting off alarm bells that LC/AJ were on the wrong course. Great example here, just read the comments from TH & Co

Tigerair Mandala to cease flying on 30 June | Plane Talking

Says it all.. and those alarm bells should have been set off from those well paid aviation/market analysts at last years AGM when both LC & AJ said everything was "all good" and Qantas group was on track

http://www.pprune.org/australia-new-...ml#post8421055

http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...essAGM2013.pdf

http://www.qantas.com.au/infodetail/...essAGM2013.pdf



Here we are in 2014 and look at the mess they have got themselves into, it's now all the staff's fault...but it's clear to many they didn't have a clue what was going on with their business at the time.. they seem to just say anything to get them through that day... a great sign of short term-ism management.

Over last weekend when Albo popped up in the media I knew that things were stirring again... they are all in on it, here we go again...


Qantas loss could break billion barrier



The Labor Party's weekend announcement that it would soften its stance on Qantas ownership restrictions suggests shadow transport minister Anthony Albanese may be girding his loins for another round of public debate on the need for some kind of government leg-up for the airline.
It's probably no coincidence his concessions have been heralded towards the end of a financial year in which the airline's performance has continued to deteriorate and on the eve of the matter being put to the Senate.
Stranger still, it coincides with speculation in the industry that Qantas may be set to release a loss much larger than anticipated.
Following a $250 million loss in the first half of the year the current analyst consensus is for a loss of around $700 million on an underlying basis. On top of this they are expecting about $200 million-$400 million of one-off losses - most accounted for by the cost of making 2200 jobs redundant by June 30, 2014. This would boost the airline's statutory loss to more than $1 billion. Some analysts have this number as high as $1.2 billion.
But over the past week the chatter that additional write-downs will be made - particularly on aircraft - has led to a view that even $1 billion could be well shy of the year-end underlying loss and that $1.5 billion could be closer to the mark. Qantas wouldn't be drawn on the speculation.
TIMA9X is offline  
Old 30th Jun 2014, 21:09
  #4524 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Outofoz
Posts: 657
People, its simple.
The likes of Clifford and Joyce will always blame someone or something, never themselves, for their failures.
International is currently rooted and now you are seeing the demise of domestic side of the business, which up until recently could almost be guaranteed to produce a $500 mill profit.
Combine that with their need for consultants to be employed as "change managers" (bain boston and whoever else is in on this band wagon) and also the continued belief that management requires a bonus scheme to attract the "right people" and you have these results.
The recovery is simple.
Every Consultant project on the floor is stopped.
The executive bonus scheme in any form, i.e. short term and long term incentive plan is stopped and never returned in any ugly form. Salaried positions from the top down.
The continued mirroring of Qantas and Jetstar services domestically is stopped.
The immediate need for international aircraft orders to right the ship.
Get the ceo's of boeing and airbus on the phone now, we need to talk.
Call in the heads of all the unions, we need to talk.
Number one priority is flying people safely from a to b in decent equipment and feeding said passengers.
No need for town hall meetings at the campus, with the happy clappers marching down the street, nor the need for the glossy brochures pinned up in every crew room talking up some nett promoter score bs or how important our people are.
And whilst I'm at it, No need for the ceo to be in canberra with cap in hand asking for assistance, when all the problems can be placed at his and the boards feet.
Will it happen? Of course not, because its not Leigh or Alan's fault!
hotnhigh is offline  
Old 30th Jun 2014, 22:22
  #4525 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 119
TIMA9X,

Agree, CEO and the board have, and no doubt never will take any responsibility for their bad decision making!!

However re the 380 and 787, the 787 was 5 years late and then suffered a subsequent grounding once it finally entered service!!
The 787 problems have been far worse than the 380s entry into service!

And the jury is still out on the lithium batteries, with 330 mins ETOPS, would you be comfortable on a 787 say Sydney Johannesburg or Sydney to Santiago?

I believe Qantas were aiming eventually for a simplified fleet of 3 types, 380, 787 and 737, to run both International and Domestic operations.

As great an Aircraft as the 777 is, Qantas needed a wide body that could do several roles, wide body domestic, regional asia and long thin international routes.
The 777 is simply too big in any variant to work domestically, and Qantas is unique in requiring a fleet of wide bodies to operate domestic services.
Very few airlines anywere, run 767/330 flights hourly over a 1.5 hr sector!

So Qantas chose the 787, as unlike the 777, it could do all 3 roles, and if it were not for Boeings problems, the 787/9s would have been in service for several years already!
Boe787 is offline  
Old 30th Jun 2014, 22:36
  #4526 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Wherever I can log on.
Posts: 1,700
It is very obvious that Clifford & Joyce have no intention to purchase any more aircraft for mainline and thus as more aircraft are sent to the graveyard, services will have to be withdrawn.

They are smart enough to know that the institutional shareholders will query pulling out of profitable routes so they have to engineer the situation so that it appears unprofitable. This is currently happening to the JNB route - Joyce cancelled the Joint Agreement with SAA citing that the ACCC is unlikely to allow the agreement to be renewed (he didn't even try to get it renewed). Since the cancellation, SAA have been putting all their pax on their services to PER with East Coast feeds on Virgin. This has totally changed the dynamics of the daily QF SYD-JNB-SYD service, reducing from a very high (& profitable) load factor to an unprofitable load.

I expect that there will soon be an announcement that the services will drop to 3 or 4 per week and some months later, QF will pull out of the route totally. Thus a couple of B747's can go to the desert without having to be replaced. There will be more jobs lost as Clifford's plan to dismantle Qantas continues.
Going Boeing is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 00:33
  #4527 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Land of egos
Posts: 38
with predictions now being talked about around $1.5 billion loss - at what point does the Group become insolvent? there is now talk about debt facilities, bonds etc etc - a year ago the talk was about sufficient cash reserves in the bank this talk is now all very quiet, has the money now gone??
dch63 is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 01:05
  #4528 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 215
Yes, it will be a huge reported loss this year.
AJ will blame others then reinforce his plan.....yada..yada..yada.
If at the end of the day QF don't commit to 787 next year then it's all over.
Wingspar is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 01:41
  #4529 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 212
Can Qantas even find the money for more 787s when they have a heap of A320s still looking for a home?
virgindriver is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 01:49
  #4530 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Somewhere
Posts: 176
That's the million dollar question. The 787-9s are optioned at a very good price but with no money who knows. Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value. Elaine flew to China several weeks ago in VH-FMG. Probably trying to do a desperate deal with China Southern.
Troo believer is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 02:14
  #4531 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: London-Thailand-Australia
Age: 10
Posts: 1,057
I think Ben Sums it up well here


Jetstar long distance load factors drop into unsurvivable bracket



Jetstar long distance load factors drop dangerously low | Plane Talking

Commentary Among the very poor traffic and yield figures in the latest Qantas guidance to the ASX in monthly traffic stats, Jetstar International continues to fly enough empty seats to kill itself, or if nothing gets done, the parent company.
In May it flew with 31.2 per cent of its seats unoccupied. For the low cost model, which is predicated on high occupancy figures, this is lethal if not corrected. It has shown no signs of being effectively corrected in recent times, even though Jetstar has abandoned various routes and sharply reduced frequency on others.
Yet this is the part of Qantas that is putting into service what will be a fleet of 14 Boeing 787-8s while returning a smaller number of what are largely borrowed Qantas A330-200s.
The Qantas occupancy by-fare-paying-passenger stats in other parts of its operation also reported falling numbers, apart from Qantas long haul, which showed a monthly improvement. Qantas domestic, once supposed to be the cash cow of the group, flew with 29.6 per cent of its seats empty in May including those flown by its Qantaslink brand.
As for the mainstream media.... it will take them a while longer to catch on... can't risk a front page full colour Qantas ad... they too are doing it tough.. and money talks...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...701-zsrko.html

Last edited by TIMA9X; 1st Jul 2014 at 02:20. Reason: add link
TIMA9X is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 02:17
  #4532 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 119
Going Boeing,

Agree re Johannesburg, another free kick from Qantas!
Most of the Passengers who previously booked via the South African code share on the Qantas flight Sydney to Johannesburg, are now flying VA to Perth, and then South African Perth to Johannesburg.
So extra passengers for both Virgin and South African, all because "they thought the code share agreement" would not be extended!!
Well why not run with it till it expired, and apply for a continuation?
Boe787 is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 02:38
  #4533 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 835
These are times that test the mettle, the vision, and the agility of managements. Qantas is among those being so sorely tested, and the question is, whether its management is up to it, especially in a sixth year without dividends, and a junked share price.
It is the vision and agility of this particular collection of clowns that got the airline in this situation in the first place Mr Sandilands, although you do know that, many others don't. Like flying, you should never NEED exceptional skills to get you out of trouble - those situations should be avoided, especially by people with such brilliant skill sets that command multi million dollar remuneration packages...
V-Jet is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 02:39
  #4534 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 213
Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value
Nope, part of the super pricing deal with Boeing precludes the trading of options or the selling of the purchased aircraft within 4 years (maybe 5??) of delivery. They don't want good customers making profits by selling new aircraft against the OEM.

Perhaps the options can be transferred to another airline smart enough to know their real value
Flew PER-MEL on VA A330 a couple of weeks ago. Plane would have had 50+ South Africans onboard who had transitted of SAA in PER. VA must be very pleased how that deal has worked out!!!

with predictions now being talked about around $1.5 billion loss - at what point does the Group become insolvent? there is now talk about debt facilities, bonds etc etc - a year ago the talk was about sufficient cash reserves in the bank this talk is now all very quiet, has the money now gone??
Insolvency is inability to pay debts as they fall due. There is no indication that QF are in that position though a substantial loss may trigger some debt covenants though it is unlikely a bank/creditor would follow through. QF still has access to cash via undrawn facilities as well as fully owned aircraft that could be sold and leased back. The issue is that following the downgrade to junk status, the borrowings are much more expensive than before.

Last edited by 1A_Please; 1st Jul 2014 at 02:40. Reason: spelling
1A_Please is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 03:12
  #4535 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: International
Age: 72
Posts: 1,172
I notice EK are now actively selling Aust to the USA via DXB at attractive fares with a free stopover.

Last edited by B772; 2nd Jul 2014 at 04:26. Reason: Replace DUB with DXB
B772 is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 04:45
  #4536 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 215
The 787's offer an opportunity.An opportunity that only a vision will realise.
Unfortunately there is a distinct lack of vision at the moment.
I'm praying something changes before the deadline next year.


Can QF afford it? It has too!
Whatever needs to be done must be done.
Everyone else by the end of the decade will have 787's or 777's with the new one around the corner.
QF will be at a competitive disadvantage.
God it is at the moment with 744's and mid life A 330's.
What will it look like in five years!
They need the 787. There is no option.
Wingspar is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 07:17
  #4537 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 389
Why would EK be taking people to the USA via the Irish Republic???
Chris2303 is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 07:43
  #4538 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Wherever I can log on.
Posts: 1,700
Well why not run with it till it expired, and apply for a continuation?
Boe787, the answer to that is simple, they don't want the route to survive. If it did they would have to order more aircraft and they don't have the money for that.

There is no indication that QF are in that position though a substantial loss may trigger some debt covenants though it is unlikely a bank/creditor would follow through. QF still has access to cash via undrawn facilities as well as fully owned aircraft that could be sold and leased back.
1A_Please, the level of debt has blown out massively under Clifford/Joyce to a monstrous $11 BILLION. They defend their financial position by saying that they have access to $3 billion in cash reserves but that statement involves some Irish blarney in that $1.3B of that $3B is tied up by Credit Card companies (a requirement since the credit rating was downgraded to junk) so they are operating with less ready cash than is desirable.
Going Boeing is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 08:10
  #4539 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: south pacific vagrant
Posts: 1,309
he may have meant dxb chris. ive noticed accuracy with iata.icao codes is not a strong point around here
waren9 is offline  
Old 1st Jul 2014, 17:52
  #4540 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Stuck in the middle...
Posts: 1,637
Elaine flew to China several weeks ago in VH-FMG.
Sorry can I just get that straight: the CEO of an airline, which he claims to have issues with costs, flies somewhere by private jet?
Taildragger67 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.