A bit late.......15 nov. YSSY

[bloated goat]

There were no TS applied to the TAF or TTF to YSSY until the very last minute. Even during the afternoon whilst there were TS sitting to the west there was no indication other than the TTF remark TS to the NW moving NE, yet still no requirements. Eventually at about 8 pm after there were about 7 TS in the terminal area and one cell that eventually reached the airport and at the same time an inbound aircraft declaring a fuel emergency (perhaps unrelated) they finally changed both the TAF and TTF to apply TS. A bit late.....

[Capt Fathom]

That's never happened before.

[Capt Kremin]

We arriving in the middle of that as well.

ATC did a great job, especially when they ignored one of our far northern brethren who wanted to land on 25 with a 15 knot tailwind.

No requirements on the TAF or TTF. Min fuel would have been a bugger.

[Transition Layer]

Bugger all warnings in terms of OpRisk from internal sources also (QF Ops).

The guy in QMet must have gone to the pub for Friday arvo drinks with his mates from the BoM!

[catseye]

taf radius

If the Qmet man was not expecting the cells to move within 5 miles it would not appear on the TAF. he/she was giving you a heads up that cells were in the area though with the NW/NE stuff so make a judgement call.

[megle2]

There were hazard reports by Centre to expect 30 minutes holding due weather issued about 7pm local when we were going past

[Transition Layer]

catseye,

Thanks for the Met lesson. They obviously got it very wrong though when 60-70mm of rain fell at the airport in the space of a few hours.

We all know it's not an exact science but getting it so wrong and updating TAFs so late is just embarrassing

[Willie Nelson]

We came in earlier in the evening and did quite a bit of TS avoidance, the TTF had an INTER that was above the SLAM. We took the INTER and held for quite a while.

ATC once again did a great job and we were home to see the light show shortly thereafter without incident.

I am all for saving the company fuel uplift where it is deemed unnecessary, nevertheless sometimes it's necessary.

[LongLats]

If the Qmet man was not expecting the cells to move within 5 miles it would not appear on the TAF. he/she was giving you a heads up that cells were in the area though with the NW/NE stuff so make a judgement call.

So incorrect.

[catseye]

long lats were standing by....

[LongLats]

Sorry, I should have elaborated a little more on my previous post. You're correct in that a TAF is worked out within a 5nm radius from the ARP. Sure. But implying that they gave us enough information to plan for holding or alternates just by stating "Thunderstorms in the area" on the area forecast just isn't right. No professional pilot on the planet is going to read that and consequently carry holding fuel or plan for alternates when the TAF has no operational requirement on it.

You read the ARFOR, consider the weather you're going to face enroute and keep it all in mind, but it's the TAF is what determines how much fuel you're going to carry. You'll obviously have some sort of margin fuel, but you could have come into that place last night perfectly legally with nothing but burn and reserves. Would you only carry the bare minimum? Probably not. In a perfect world you'd take as much fuel as possible everywhere you went. But that's not how commercial operations work!

That weather last night was a line of hell running from Ulladulla up to Newcastle and the worst of it was concentrated over YSSY. If it was a little storm that came and went, fair enough I guess, but this thing was huge. How they missed it in the forecast is crazy and it's not cool. There's no good excuse in my opinion.

[KRUSTY 34]

Not sure what TAF you were looking at BG, but mine had a Tempo for TS on it for most of the day.

I hear you WRT TTF vs TAF, but at the end of the day, you sometimes need to take the TTF as not the be all and end all! We were in and out of Sydney all afternoon, and I made sure that I carried the 60 mins, even though not required, just in case the WX took an unexpected turn. I know this may not be always possible, but considering the trends, I personally felt it could have been just a matter of time.

We were lucky to get out the last time about an hour before it all happened, and apart from the "unsettled" conditions that prevailed for most of the day, things didn't appear too grim. Happened pretty quickly it seemed.

Metman is usually pretty good, but there's always the curve ball.

.

[2Plus]

It seems some would do well to brush up on ATPL Met and local knowledge rather than relying on someone else's interpretation (TAF etc.)

Or maybe just watch the news!

[bloated goat]

TAF YSSY 142302Z 1500/1606 18010KT 9999 FEW025 SCT035 FM150100
13015KT 9999 -SHRA SCT025 SCT035 FM151000 18010KT 9999
-SHRA SCT020 SCT030 FM160000 16020KT 9999 -SHRA SCT025
SCT035 INTER 1502/1606 5000 SHRA BKN010


TAF YSSY 150502Z 1506/1612 13015KT 9999 -SHRA SCT020 SCT030 FM151000
18010KT 9999 -SHRA SCT020 BKN030 FM160000 16020KT 9999
-SHRA SCT020 BKN030 FM161000 18010KT 9999 -SHRA SCT020
BKN030 INTER 1506/1612 5000 SHRA BKN010

Now they AMD the TAF to include the TEMPO at 0959Z

TAF AMD YSSY 150959Z 1509/1612 13015KT 9999 -SHRA SCT020 SCT030
FM151300 18010KT 9999 -SHRA SCT020 BKN030 FM160000 16020KT
9999 -SHRA SCT020 BKN030 FM161000 18010KT 9999 -SHRA
SCT020 BKN030 INTER 1509/1612 5000 SHRA BKN010
PROB40 INTER 1510/1511 4000 TSRA BKN010 SCT030CB

The TTFs are in reverse.

METAR YSSY 151000Z 13015KT 9999 VCTS VCSH FEW018 SCT020 BKN140
FEW030CB 19/16 Q1015 RMK TS'S 8NM TO NE, 13NM
TO N AND 13NM TO SW MOVING NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTER
1030/1200 4000 TSRA BKN010 SCT030CB INTER 1200/1300
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150930Z 12013KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT020 BKN080
19/15 Q1015 RMK TS'S 12NM NNW AND E MOVING SLOWLY
NE INTER 1000/1230 5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150900Z 12013KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT020 BKN160
19/14 Q1015 RMK CB TOPS TO NW INTER 0930/1200
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150830Z 12015KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT020 BKN180
19/15 Q1015 RMK SHRA TO SW FM1000 18010KT 9999
-SHRA SCT020 BKN030 INTER 0845/1030 5000 SHRA
BKN010

METAR YSSY 150800Z 11016KT 9999 FEW018 SCT020 19/15 Q1015
RMK DIST CB TOPS TO W FM1000 18010KT 9999 -SHRA
SCT020 BKN030 INTER 0800/1000 5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150730Z 13019KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT020 20/14
Q1015 RMK SHRA TO NE FM1000 18010KT 9999 -SHRA
SCT020 BKN030 INTER 0730/1030 5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150700Z 13018KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT025 20/14
Q1014 RMK DIST TCU TOPS TO NE INTER 0730/1000
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150630Z 13018KT 9999 VCSH FEW018 SCT025 FEW020TCU
20/14 Q1014 RMK SHRA TO NE INTER 0730/0930 5000
SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150600Z 13018KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 20/14 Q1014
INTER 0700/0900 5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150530Z 14017KT 9999 BKN025 21/14 Q1014 RMK TS
45NM TO W THRU NW MOV SLOWLY N INTER 0630/0830
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150500Z 14018KT 9999 BKN020 20/14 Q1014 RMK TS
30NM TO NW MOV SLOWLY N INTER 0600/0800 5000 SHRA
BKN010

METAR YSSY 150430Z 14018KT 9999 BKN020 BKN220 20/14 Q1014
RMK TS 30NM TO NW MOV SLOWLY NE INTER 0530/0730
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150400Z 14017KT 9999 SCT020 BKN300 20/14 Q1015
RMK TS 25NM TO 35NM TO NW MOV SLOWLY NE INTER
0500/0700 5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150330Z 14018KT 9999 FEW015 BKN025 22/14 Q1015
RMK TS 30NM TO NW MOV SLOWLY E INTER 0430/0630
5000 SHRA BKN010

METAR YSSY 150300Z 14017KT 9999 FEW015 BKN025 21/14 Q1015
INTER 0400/0600 5000 SHRA BKN010

Yes, I'm a big fan of the work they guys at the BOM do, and trying to predict fog......well that's white man magic. But anyone with even dial-up internet connection logged onto the 64 km Sydney (Terrey Hills) Radar Loop during the evening would have seen blobs of yellow, red and black at each 6 minute time frame tracking directly to YSSY..........a bit too late!

[Blip]

I flew into Sydney that morning and decided to carry 60 mins holding fuel. Why? I'm now in the habit of going to the BOM home page and clicking on the forecast released to the general public for the city I'm flying to. I checked Sydney's forecast and this is what I found.

Sydney area
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers, tending scattered towards evening. Possible locally heavy shower along the coastal fringe this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm along the coastal fringe this morning, then in the west during the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon.

I suspect the BOM calculated that there was a PROB 20 chance of thunderstorms throughout most of the day, but when it's less than a 30% chance, a pilot doesn't need to know apparently. However if you're Joe Public organising the family BBQ you do.

I can see no reason why a TAF cannot include a PROB 05 FG, or PROB 20 TS. Sure they can make the rules such that it is only a requirement to carry holding fuel if it is PROB 30 or PROB 40, but for goodness sake don't hold back useful information that will allow pilots to make informed decisions regarding fuel and other operational matters!

[LongLats]

I can see no reason why a TAF cannot include a PROB 05 FG, or PROB 20 TS. Sure they can make the rules such that it is only a requirement to carry holding fuel if it is PROB 30 or PROB 40, but for goodness sake don't hold back useful information that will allow pilots to make informed decisions regarding fuel and other operational matters!

This!

[Wally Mk2]

This whole fiasco of Met reporting is to be taken with a grain of salt at all times. They have their criteria & they promulgate the wx 'legal' wise, it takes a well seasoned commander to be able to 'read' the wx & not just what some wx guru in his/er little insulated protected word believes.
Airmanship is yr only savoir here. F*ck the SOP's the Co won't back you you in a coroners inquest!


Wmk2

[Derfred]

I can see no reason why a TAF cannot include a PROB 05 FG, or PROB 20 TS. Sure they can make the rules such that it is only a requirement to carry holding fuel if it is PROB 30 or PROB 40, but for goodness sake don't hold back useful information that will allow pilots to make informed decisions regarding fuel and other operational matters!

I voiced that same opinion on the ADL FG -> Mildura diversions thread and got shouted down. I want to know even if it's PROB 01. I'll make the fuel decisions, MET should just give me the info I need to know.

[Ozgrade3]

The BOM has not been getting it right at least 50% of the time.......not even close.

Want to know what stress is? Arrive at work early, consult weather forecasts, TAFS, synoptic charts etc etc, which say it's fine and beaut all day. Light winds and CAVOK for every airport within 200nm. Not a cloud in the sky.

Booking sheet says 100+ hrs to be flown today. Solo navs and 1st area solos. Sign out a dozen or so student solos.

Not even 30 mins after they launch..........it's overcast at 600.

Students stranded all over the state, area solos having to be recalled and assisted back into the circuit then back on the ground. Then the requisite finger pointing and tea n bickies with the boss.

Other days have 7 kts on the TAF, yet outside its gusting 36 kts. On more than one occasion, I have cancelled a full days flying program even though the forecast says fine and beaut, only to be proved right by lunchtime when even the IFR boys cant get in.