Virgin Aircraft 'Emergency' Landing

[Ex FSO GRIFFO]

The last para of the news item....

"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau says it is collecting information about the incident, and may conduct a formal investigation."

[astinapilot]

To answer some q's

2.5 tonne in 737 is not much. Approx 60 mins. 1 missed approached and recircuit and you're at legal mins.

Bn-ad. Per tonne of fuel carried extra it will use about 60kg. So 5t is 300kg= $350. Does not sound much but virgin do 3000 flights per wk ( from website) = 1 mil/wk. Not all would use 300kg but rough enough.

So it is a find balancing act b/w balancing commercial and safety considerations. Why we get paid the big bucks ;-)

[DirectAnywhere]

I've been wondering for years what relevance the number has after a PROB fog. It doesn't matter operationally whether it's PROB 10 or PROB 90. If there's any probability of fog or other phenomena reducing the visibility below the alternate criteria, or whatever the exact AIP wording is, you need an alternate.

So why don't we ditch the number entirely and make it just PROB, meaning there is some probability, so gas it up?

Or, even better, remove the term PROB entirely. If there is a chance of deteriorating weather during a certain period just forecast it as such. It makes the TAF/ TTF shorter, which makes it easier to read, and makes no operational change as far as flight crew are concerned.

[34R]

I just hope that those involved are receiving any support and help that is needed. At the end of the day the souls on board count was the same at the conclusion of the flight as it was when it started, and that is a great thing.

The crew was an experienced one and I'm sure every avenue was exhausted before the final call was made. Sometimes everything can be done right and you can still find yourself pushing the proverbial uphill.

Let's allow the facts to be discovered, and turn this into a situation we can all benefit from.

[Creampuff]

Kharon:

But was Mildura not a passing strange choice though?; Brisvegas to Adelaide track, (round numbers, broad brush) from dim memory (Venel is it ?) was about 210 nms from Adelaide. From there it's 275 ish to Adelaide and it's "about" 260 nms to Melbourne, well before TOD anyway, lets say, for sake of argument 35 minutes out, 15 before TOD. Plenty of options from there. Even from o' head YMIA it's only what? 250 nms to Melbourne as opposed to 180 odd nms to Adelaide. That's only + 70 odd miles, which, in a 73 series anything, is not too long a stretch. The Adelaide met data does show the trend toward fog, so I am left, still wondering, why risk Mildura, provided Melbourne was readily available?

According to Abe Froeman:

Been told [the Captain] cut his teeth flying turbo props flying Adl to Mql in his younger days.

Perhaps his familiarity with Mildura was a factor? (My recollection may be inaccurate, but wasn’t there an incident about a decade ago during which the captain of an international aircraft inbound to Sydney(??) made a decision to divert to Tamworth(??), which was the aerodrome at which he’d done his training, and had to be practically ‘ordered’ by the on-ground chief pilot to divert to Williamtown(??) due to fuel considerations?

Anyway, the genius of the ATSB’s ‘beyond Reason’ approach will now come to the fore:

Investigation? Done!

Zero systemic issues. Only violations by the PIC.

CASA ‘deals’ with the pilot and everyone’s happy and safe!

[Matt48]

Fuel query

Hi all,
I was wondering how pilots calculate fuel with walk on cargo not being weighed.
There was an Aircrash Investigation show on tv last night on that very subject.

[parabellum]

Like Singapore's rolling tempo to enable singair to avoid carrying extra
fuel?

Care to elaborate? Never had anything like that in my ten years there.

Apparently in South African Airways its policy to always carry an alternate
unless the destination has multiple useable non-intersecting runways, or at any other time the crew feels it necessary, no questions asked. Seems pretty
sensible to me.

Absolutely bog standard just about everywhere in Europe, SE Asia, Middle East etc. Trip Fuel + Contingency Fuel + Diversion Fuel + at least 30mins holding fuel at diversion airfield + fuel for an approach and landing, regardless of weather forecast at destination, more may be added, if there is weight/room if fog, TS, BR etc. is forecast. Never go without a diversion and forecast wx. at diversion at ETA must be above Cat 1 minima. If payload too much to allow this then a 're-dispatch' plan may be used, an achievable destination en route is selected but if fuel approaching this destination is sufficient then flight can continue to original scheduled destination, company variations will apply.

At capts. discretion, when approaching one hour to go to destination, which is an airfield with parallel runways, both serviceable, No Sig Wx, and if fuel is dropping below minimum required then the diversion fuel may be used to complete flight to destination, again, company variations apply.

Possibly not in Australia or the USA?

[waren9]

So why don't we ditch the number entirely and make it just PROB, meaning there is some probability, so gas it up?

INTER and TEMPOs with PROBs less than 40 may be disregarded for ETOPs alternates at our mob.

[bdcer]

With regard to the PROBs:

MANUAL OF METEOROLOGY PART 2 (ISBN 0 644 09903 8) from BOM states, on pg 118, that PROB is defined as "condition whose occurrence is doubtful or uncertain (50 per cent or less)".... So I guess by exclusion, anything else in the aerodrome forecast is only has 50% or greater likelihood of occurring.

[Metro man]

I've been wondering for years what relevance the number has after a PROB fog. It doesn't matter operationally whether it's PROB 10 or PROB 90.

IIRC you will only see PROB 30 or 40 on a TAF, no other percentages are used.

[Octane]

Astinapilot

Thanks for that info, shows how the numbers add up..

Another one for you, do Captains get reviewed on their decision making re alternate fuel? I'd ask bro but he's well, out there somewhere with loads of "gas"!

[waren9]

Yes. Jetstar have started to do it, graphs of uplift by capt and base.

My last employer has been doing it for years.

[astinapilot]

Virgin no. We get graphs of where we sit occasionally but no one has questioned me. Problem arises that company has a min legal fuel policy and some guys take this. Most often you want a little more even on nice days. A lot more on not so nice. Virgin carry alternates most places.

[framer]

When they show the Captains their fuel uplift graph at Jetstar, do they have a big gold star for every time the Captain put on extra gas and then didn't divert because they had the ability to hold for 20mins thus saving the company thousands of dollars and keeping the passengers happy at the same time?
Or do they just say 'Geez Wayne you're in the top 20th percentile for uplift, sort yourself out'.

[DirectAnywhere]

Metro Man, I know, it was just an example to illustrate the point that it's of no operational relevance whether the probability is 10 or 90%, it still requires the carriage of an alternate or holding. So why not just ditch the number or the term PROB entirely and just forecast it - the operational impact is precisely the same. PROB30 might give you a warm fluffy feeling that it's 70% not likely to happen but is operationally of no relevance.

[lamax]

Generations of regional airline pilots have never trusted inland city/town morning CAVOK forecasts in winter when anti-cyclonic conditions exist with dry bulb, wet bulb temperatures within one degree of each other. A call to the forecaster at Mildura Met. Office equips the pilot with additional knowledge when decision making, a line of defence which I expect is not pursued by modern flight ops. departments. As mentioned previously, good airmanship by the crew in a safe outcome. Perhaps unkind judgement here if events happened too quickly for flight ops. to catch up.

[Lookleft]

When they show the Captains their fuel uplift graph at Jetstar

As far as I am aware there is no show and tell with fuel graphs and they know the response they would get if they did. I have never been questioned on my fuel uplift.

[Derfred]

In my company a report is required if a diversion takes place due to weather, but no report is required if a diversion is avoided due discretionary fuel.

So, no, the bean counters have no idea how often the pilots save the day.

Here inlies a problem.

[Capt Claret]

I think to simply blame the Met Man or the BOM is overly simplistic. Like most government bodies, they're asked to do more with less. And given less resources to do more with. And one can't just blame Labor or Gillard, as both sides of politics are of the one colour in this regard.

[Ollie Onion]

To be honest I don't go anywhere without an alternate no matter what the forecast weather. On my wee domestic jet it makes sod all difference to fuel burns to carry the extra. In the past 3 years I have had diversions due to earthquakes on final approach, a student stacking it in on the runway ahead of me and severe turbulence on approach. Do I give a toss what the boss thinks... Not really, I am paid to make that call, the bean counters can worry about the finances. Fact of the matter is I work for an airline that can't justify the purchase or hire of GPU's at each port resulting in regular maintenance burns in excess of 500kgs, it would take me weeks of carrying an extra ton here and there over 30 minute sectors to equal that wastage.