QF end Game???
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QF end Game???
Its been interesting today and over the last few days to observe the massive volume of Qan shares being snapped up by Institutional holders, but what is more interesting is that they are also being snapped up eagerly by board members and co. Considering no profit guide was given at the recent AGM.
So what's going on? What is happening that appears that these chosen bunch know that the mere mum and dad investors or employees and their families aren't privileged enough to know?
It seems to appear that AJ and co are now strutting with the arrogant confidence of knowing something that others don't.
Could it be the fact that they know that there will be no negotiated outcome (and no intention to negotiate one) with the unions before the 21 day cutoff imposed by FWA (despite QF's best attempts to bring all parties back to the table, yeah right!) and that once the issue is ruled by FWA there will only be payrises in line with CPI and no job security clauses?
Could it also be the fact that Jetstar (OrangeStar Holdings) is about to have 50-80% of the holdings publicly listed and that management will become very wealthy from the deal? Starts to make sense considering the large allocation of shares to the Execs in the last remuneration review. As major QAN shareholders, along with the institutions, they will get first pickings at the IPO. (and also have a look who are the interested parties in OrangeStar?). Also makes a bit more sense now why the institutional holders overwhelmingly voted up the remuneration package, they had been briefed on the end game.
Could it also be the fact that the execs now know that once the unions are out the way they are free to relocate the core business to Asia leaving Qantas Australia only as a business shell with holdings in the outsourced franchises and leasing companies with no direct assets?? 51% of the shell business will still be held by Australian investors to barely satisfy the Qantas sales act and will provide minimal return to the minority investors in the way of dividends.
From what it appears neither political party has the balls to really enforce the Qantas sales act (consider even in 2007 during the APA deal non Aus ownership reached nearly 60-65% during the madness) so AJ may not even bother to maintain that percentage. These execs are fully aware that the current politicians (except Sen X) are toothless tigers and it will be full steam ahead to destroy the Qantas that we as Australians have been proud of for the last 90+ years.
What ever is going on, and I'm only speculating, i'm sure it won't be in the best interest of the Australian public, it's employees, our families or Qantas's Mum and Dad shareholders.
However, It will only be in the best interest of Alan Joyce and his bunch of privileged merry men. Game over..........................
So what's going on? What is happening that appears that these chosen bunch know that the mere mum and dad investors or employees and their families aren't privileged enough to know?
It seems to appear that AJ and co are now strutting with the arrogant confidence of knowing something that others don't.
Could it be the fact that they know that there will be no negotiated outcome (and no intention to negotiate one) with the unions before the 21 day cutoff imposed by FWA (despite QF's best attempts to bring all parties back to the table, yeah right!) and that once the issue is ruled by FWA there will only be payrises in line with CPI and no job security clauses?
Could it also be the fact that Jetstar (OrangeStar Holdings) is about to have 50-80% of the holdings publicly listed and that management will become very wealthy from the deal? Starts to make sense considering the large allocation of shares to the Execs in the last remuneration review. As major QAN shareholders, along with the institutions, they will get first pickings at the IPO. (and also have a look who are the interested parties in OrangeStar?). Also makes a bit more sense now why the institutional holders overwhelmingly voted up the remuneration package, they had been briefed on the end game.
Could it also be the fact that the execs now know that once the unions are out the way they are free to relocate the core business to Asia leaving Qantas Australia only as a business shell with holdings in the outsourced franchises and leasing companies with no direct assets?? 51% of the shell business will still be held by Australian investors to barely satisfy the Qantas sales act and will provide minimal return to the minority investors in the way of dividends.
From what it appears neither political party has the balls to really enforce the Qantas sales act (consider even in 2007 during the APA deal non Aus ownership reached nearly 60-65% during the madness) so AJ may not even bother to maintain that percentage. These execs are fully aware that the current politicians (except Sen X) are toothless tigers and it will be full steam ahead to destroy the Qantas that we as Australians have been proud of for the last 90+ years.
What ever is going on, and I'm only speculating, i'm sure it won't be in the best interest of the Australian public, it's employees, our families or Qantas's Mum and Dad shareholders.
However, It will only be in the best interest of Alan Joyce and his bunch of privileged merry men. Game over..........................
Last edited by Stalins ugly Brother; 16th Nov 2011 at 05:55.
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Ugly brother,
If this is what you believe, why don't you buy some stock and participate in your own conspiracy theory?
Qantas, as a trade in the low 1.40's was a no brainer and it still is in the low 1.70's!
NP
If this is what you believe, why don't you buy some stock and participate in your own conspiracy theory?
Qantas, as a trade in the low 1.40's was a no brainer and it still is in the low 1.70's!
NP
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Not all Change is Bad
Yes! you’re only speculating brother, but do agree it’s likely that
· there will be no negotiated outcome, plus
· pay rises in line with CPI, but no job security clauses.
And it would make strategic sense for
· Jetstar (Orange Star Holdings) to be publicly listed.
However, disagree strongly with your view that
· It wouldn’t be in the best interest of the Australian public, its employees, our families or Qantas's Mum and Dad shareholders.
There are good alternatives to the two brand strategy that a cashed up Qantas, no longer bleeding money to Jetstar, could quickly implement.
Expect it's time for you to take advice from the Piper and his band of Merry Men. Separating Jetstar from Qantas is probably part of the solution, not cause for concern.
Yes! you’re only speculating brother, but do agree it’s likely that
· there will be no negotiated outcome, plus
· pay rises in line with CPI, but no job security clauses.
And it would make strategic sense for
· Jetstar (Orange Star Holdings) to be publicly listed.
However, disagree strongly with your view that
· It wouldn’t be in the best interest of the Australian public, its employees, our families or Qantas's Mum and Dad shareholders.
There are good alternatives to the two brand strategy that a cashed up Qantas, no longer bleeding money to Jetstar, could quickly implement.
Expect it's time for you to take advice from the Piper and his band of Merry Men. Separating Jetstar from Qantas is probably part of the solution, not cause for concern.
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Sell Jetstar!
Sell short haul!
Sell FF!
Close down Long haul!
Cronies pocket lots and lots of cash and retire to count it...
Sell short haul!
Sell FF!
Close down Long haul!
Cronies pocket lots and lots of cash and retire to count it...
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Alan Joyce did imply to one Qantas crew on the flight deck (I personally remember them discussing it) that he'd quite happily sell Jetstar to private equity for the right price, exactly in the same vein as angryrat's description of the AJ interview.
I think ultimately if anyone seriously believes Alan Joyce is the slightest bit interested in the much longer term viability of Qantas they need their head read. Just like Dixon and Jackson, Joyce and Clifford will sell the family jewels in the mere blink of an eye if it makes them a lot of personal wealth and if they can legally get away with it. The four of them are birds of a feather.
I think ultimately if anyone seriously believes Alan Joyce is the slightest bit interested in the much longer term viability of Qantas they need their head read. Just like Dixon and Jackson, Joyce and Clifford will sell the family jewels in the mere blink of an eye if it makes them a lot of personal wealth and if they can legally get away with it. The four of them are birds of a feather.
That's the thing about being a lateral thinker.
It was quite obvious at the time that Jetstar was the vehicle to undercut everyone and everyone knew it but no one in any sort of position of authority dare say it. Even though at the roadshows I've been attending since around when Jetstar started up, the odd question about it was fired off and answered with a grimace, shake of the head and GD shocked that someone would ask such a question.
But now we have a current CEO who has always held the firm belief that Qantas staff are paid too much as he said in interviews years ago and the prophecy seen by most of us is slowly coming to fruition. Even though they keep sprouting how excellent they are at being the first airline to maintain a full service and a low cost carrier in the world. Which seems to be wrong as of late. Even with the 787 coming at 20% lower fuel burn per pax apparently, Joyce is adamant that the lower fuel burn still won't save Qantas, as he said today.
And the end result, is exactly as was predicted all those years ago that the Qantas staff have been undercut, now they're all of a sudden unsustainable, the aircraft are unprofitable and we're about to watch the purge begin.
So in effect, maybe Dixon was right that it wasn't a vehicle to undercut initially. But logical thought patterns assumed by the lowest of low, mere workers at the coal face are eventually thought of by those excellent powers that be.
I wouldn't be suprised if Jetstar is sold off, bonuses all round, share prices rocketing and a few people who are issued shares as a form of remuneration do very well, even if they sincerely don't intend on doing it right at this point of time, logic dictates they more then likely will.
It was quite obvious at the time that Jetstar was the vehicle to undercut everyone and everyone knew it but no one in any sort of position of authority dare say it. Even though at the roadshows I've been attending since around when Jetstar started up, the odd question about it was fired off and answered with a grimace, shake of the head and GD shocked that someone would ask such a question.
But now we have a current CEO who has always held the firm belief that Qantas staff are paid too much as he said in interviews years ago and the prophecy seen by most of us is slowly coming to fruition. Even though they keep sprouting how excellent they are at being the first airline to maintain a full service and a low cost carrier in the world. Which seems to be wrong as of late. Even with the 787 coming at 20% lower fuel burn per pax apparently, Joyce is adamant that the lower fuel burn still won't save Qantas, as he said today.
And the end result, is exactly as was predicted all those years ago that the Qantas staff have been undercut, now they're all of a sudden unsustainable, the aircraft are unprofitable and we're about to watch the purge begin.
So in effect, maybe Dixon was right that it wasn't a vehicle to undercut initially. But logical thought patterns assumed by the lowest of low, mere workers at the coal face are eventually thought of by those excellent powers that be.
I wouldn't be suprised if Jetstar is sold off, bonuses all round, share prices rocketing and a few people who are issued shares as a form of remuneration do very well, even if they sincerely don't intend on doing it right at this point of time, logic dictates they more then likely will.
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Lick a prize!
Alan Joyce did imply to one Qantas crew on the flight deck (I personally remember them discussing it) that he'd quite happily sell Jetstar to private equity for the right price, exactly in the same vein as angryrat's description of the AJ interview.
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I think the Government is going to have to act.
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GoDock...Or they were on the ground!
Even if they were allowed, I'd never have Joyce or any other exec in the cockpit during flight. I don't need distractions which just make me angry by their mere presence.
Board and management buying large chunks of shares.
Fin Rev reports Joyce 'confident of deals'.
My thoughts: Deals done are irrelevant as horse trading almost certainly negates any longevity of Qf brand.
Be very proud of the work everyone has done over the last 90 years to buy Dixon, Joyce the board etc the wonderful houses, trinkets and cars that you did.
It would be wonderful if everyone at Qantas just point blank refused to go to work for these guys. Finish the brand on a high.
I hadn't read SUB's comments above - says it all and I didn't have to. I leave my (late) comments for future generations to wonder 'what if' about....
Bye Bye Qantas. I have owed you everything. Thank you.
Fin Rev reports Joyce 'confident of deals'.
My thoughts: Deals done are irrelevant as horse trading almost certainly negates any longevity of Qf brand.
Be very proud of the work everyone has done over the last 90 years to buy Dixon, Joyce the board etc the wonderful houses, trinkets and cars that you did.
It would be wonderful if everyone at Qantas just point blank refused to go to work for these guys. Finish the brand on a high.
I hadn't read SUB's comments above - says it all and I didn't have to. I leave my (late) comments for future generations to wonder 'what if' about....
Bye Bye Qantas. I have owed you everything. Thank you.
Nunc est bibendum
Even if they were allowed, I'd never have Joyce or any other exec in the cockpit during flight. I don't need distractions which just make me angry by their mere presence.
The reality is though is that he has no desire to see the work done on our side of the flight deck door. He doesn't rate it, doesn't value it and certainly doesn't think that anything a pilot says is worth listening to.
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If this is what you believe, why don't you buy some stock and participate in your own conspiracy theory?
Qantas, as a trade in the low 1.40's was a no brainer and it still is in the low 1.70's!
Qantas, as a trade in the low 1.40's was a no brainer and it still is in the low 1.70's!
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Jack said
"You would have to be the biggest d!ckhead on the face of the planet to trade airline shares UNLESS you had inside information. Considering the complete joke the penalties are for insider trading, probably worth the risk"
Well Jack, I know for a fact that an individual purchased 1,000,000 QAN shares at $1.35, yes the all time low.....what are they worth today?? $1.69 I hear you say. That is a cool $340000 pre tax profit in 43 days without INSIDE information. Maybe you should label yourself as a
d!ckhead.
NP
"You would have to be the biggest d!ckhead on the face of the planet to trade airline shares UNLESS you had inside information. Considering the complete joke the penalties are for insider trading, probably worth the risk"
Well Jack, I know for a fact that an individual purchased 1,000,000 QAN shares at $1.35, yes the all time low.....what are they worth today?? $1.69 I hear you say. That is a cool $340000 pre tax profit in 43 days without INSIDE information. Maybe you should label yourself as a
d!ckhead.
NP
Nunc est bibendum
Or the person that bought 1 million at 5.95 four years ago and they're now worth? Seriously, we can do this all day and it proves nothing than speculators sometimes win and sometimes lose. The big wins are occasionally followed by bigger losses and vice versa.