Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Airline and RPT Rumours & News in Australia, enZed and the Pacific

QF shares hit $2.00, discuss

Old 1st Feb 2015, 03:56
  #661 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
Posts: 859
When it comes to fuel hedging Qantas has always been very smart. They use call options so when the price crashes as it has done all they lose is the premium they paid for the call option, they are under no obligation to buy the fuel at that price if they don't want to and they can buy then at the spot price for far less.
dragon man is online now  
Old 3rd Feb 2015, 22:03
  #662 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,199
I'm patiently waiting to hear what Alan has to say about JQ Hong Kong.

The AOC application was submitted in August 2012 !!

I was recently informed by a friend in the Financial Market that Alan was continuing to look for a buyer for his Asian Fanchise (JQ Asia), the sticking point being Alan wants any new owner to keep the same Jetstar branding.
Mstr Caution is offline  
Old 31st Mar 2015, 07:20
  #663 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: FL290
Posts: 737
SOLD @$3.12
1a sound asleep is offline  
Old 31st Mar 2015, 10:10
  #664 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 468
When it comes to fuel hedging Qantas has always been very smart. They use call options so when the price crashes as it has done all they lose is the premium they paid for the call option, they are under no obligation to buy the fuel at that price if they don't want to and they can buy then at the spot price for far less.
There's few airlines that don't hedge. In this competitive climate, any savings from hedging will go towards lower fares and little will be added to any profit. With the recent volatility in the market, there won't be much gain unless there is some very active trading for profit but the risk becomes higher as well.
AEROMEDIC is offline  
Old 31st Mar 2015, 12:16
  #665 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Sydney
Posts: 105
I recall probably 10 or more years ago Qantas "gave" all of it's staff $ 1000.00 worth of shares at $ 1.80 ish per share. It's been a long long time since they were worth $ 1000.00 -- so it's great to see that after all these years they are worth what they were way back then. WELL DONE QANTAS a great result at ZERO capital growth on your shares !!!!
Now lets calculate that with compounded inflation .....
arkmark is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 03:07
  #666 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Strayer
Posts: 38
Yes, let's... $1.80 x 1.03 ten times = $2.42. Today's price = $3.17. Looks like around a 31% gain over inflation.
lotsta is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 03:17
  #667 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: FL290
Posts: 737
Yes, let's... $1.80 x 1.03 ten times = $2.42. Today's price = $3.17. Looks like around a 31% gain over inflation.
Take the money and run
1a sound asleep is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 09:55
  #668 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 4
Actually 1.80 times 1.058 power ten equals 3.17 ish...so that's 2.58% above inflation of 1.03 in the example used. But lotsa would prefer the pre school maths version ....to get the desired effect of making it sound better of course.
norm123 is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 09:58
  #669 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 4
I mean 2.8%
norm123 is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 11:05
  #670 (permalink)  
Keg

Nunc est bibendum
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 5,177
Devil

The 189 shares at 5.29 aren't looking too great though.

Nor are the 289 at 3.45.
Keg is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 12:08
  #671 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Strayer
Posts: 38
Where did the 1.058 come from?
lotsta is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 13:58
  #672 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 4
You simply went 1.8 times times inflation of 3% over ten years is 1.8 times 1.03 power 10 = $2.42 (which is correct) and then compared that to the current share price of $3.17, then subtract the diff and put that over 2.42 to come up with a "gain" of 31%. That is just silly as people concentrate on the % without considering the real compounding return. If you are going to compare % rates of return, have to do that on a annual basis - so that you are comparing apple with apples. I just used the same method solving an equation (3.17 div 1.8 then 10th root) to get 1.058 (1.05822 actually). That represents an annualised return of 5.822%...or 2.822% gain over inflation of 1.03. Yes the numerical "gain" at the end of 31% sounds impressive until you do the maths and see that the real return is only 2.8% above inflation...not such a headline grabber. You certainly convinced the next dude.
norm123 is offline  
Old 1st Apr 2015, 22:57
  #673 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Oz
Posts: 440
I don't know why lotsa is comparing it to inflation? It's an investment and should be compared to long term investment returns. So in reality, 5.82% return is maybe a full % over the long term cash rate and a couple of % below the long term stock market returns. For 5.82%, I would want a safe investment which QF is far from. But I guess lotsa's argument fits their agenda
angryrat is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2015, 00:04
  #674 (permalink)  
Keg

Nunc est bibendum
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 5,177
Lightbulb

I have 521 QF shares that were gifted to me at various stages. I did sell out much of the early tranche when they were about $5 and was hopeful that I'd be done with them until they gave me a few more and I had some extras from the DRP.

The 'cost' value of them is $2108.08. They're currently worth (as at 20 minutes ago anyway) $1693.25. That shows a decline of nearly 20%.

Either way the point is academic. If you got in at $1 you've made a killing. Many didn't. The shares gifted have hardly been outstanding earners and certainly not when you compare them to the CBA shares my mother in law was gifted when they went private years ago!
Keg is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2015, 02:23
  #675 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Strayer
Posts: 38
I didn't begin the inflation comparison. Arkmark did up the page and I never commented on its relevance.
lotsta is offline  
Old 2nd Apr 2015, 07:39
  #676 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Harbour Master Place
Posts: 576
More than just a "One Thread Wonder" lotsa!
CurtainTwitcher is online now  
Old 2nd Apr 2015, 09:40
  #677 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Strayer
Posts: 38
I do weddings, funerals and bar mitzvahs too!
lotsta is offline  

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.