Memo to Lesley Grant
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The 61 Questions???
Can't wait until Q are forced to answer the 61 questions concerning how Q has paid for almost ALL J* operating costs, to specifically make QI nternatioal "look" bad!!
Qantas engineers serve carrier with Jetstar cost questions | Plane Talking
Qantas engineers serve carrier with Jetstar cost questions | Plane Talking
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if lislee gets cut from the executive she can still ask her nephew ,whom she promoted to manager of 'customer care', for a job.
ian, you should be very careful where you second staff from, they have you seen you bury the skeletons and they have kept the dates. your closure of customer complaints is breathtaking
ian, you should be very careful where you second staff from, they have you seen you bury the skeletons and they have kept the dates. your closure of customer complaints is breathtaking
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Reverting back to the J P Morgan quote at Post # 11 on page 1 of this thread:
Why would Qantas's largest share holder, J P Morgan, make that optimistic statement, in contradiction to the public statements of Qantas management?? 
As he largest single share holder in Qantas, one would assume J P Morgan have excellent and timely access to Qantas financial performance?
Perhaps the Unions should be by-passing QF management and questioning the veracity of J P Morgan's assessment, with Qantas largest share holder?
As an observation, if a carrier is not making costs at an 86% average load factor, it should not be in the game.
* Qantas January operating stats show the strong recovery in International is continuing (loads were 84.2% in Jan vs 83% in the pcp and an 80.7% long-run average)
* Mainline International was again the stand-out with January loads up 2% to 86.5% (from 84.5% in the pcp) despite discounting in the prior period
* Positively higher international loads have coincided with yield growth, up 11.1% YTD (pre currency). Domestic yield growth slowed in January, now up 0.1% YTD (pre-currency) due to strong domestic capacity additions
* Domestic loads of 75.2% in January (77.8% in the pcp) were impacted by the Queensland floods
* We estimate that Qantas generated ~$100m in additional revenue in January relative to the pcp (pre currency) despite the impact of the QLD floods
* Hedging update - Qantas' fuel requirements for FY11 are now 96% hedged at a worst-case crude oil price of ~$94.50/bbl (assuming $5 option premium). Fuel costs for 2H11 are expected to be ~$2bn (in line with previous guidance). In FY12 ~35% of fuel requirements are hedged at a worst case oil price of ~$101/bbl (assuming $5 option premium)
Detail:
* International remains the stand-out for Qantas and we continue to believe this will be the key driver of earnings growth in FY11
* Qantas continues to act rationally in terms of international capacity adding 3% FY11 YTD (excl Jetstar Asia). We believe this has been a key driver of yield and load strength (although the A380 outage has also resulted in reduced capacity on the European and US routes)
* The impact of the Queensland floods makes it difficult to assess the Domestic load stats. However slowing yield growth is not unexpected and coincides with the BITRE airfare index (yield pressure is primarily in the leisure segment)
* Qantas has added 11% in new domestic capacity YTD. Of this growth 46% is attributable to Mainline and QantasLink which we view positively as Business and Full economy fares continue to improve relative to the pcp
* We retain our Overweight recommendation for Qantas
* International yields remain well above pcp levels and January loads were also stronger than anticipated. However we flag that the growth trajectory of yields may slow in the second half as they begin to track stronger comps
* Mainline International was again the stand-out with January loads up 2% to 86.5% (from 84.5% in the pcp) despite discounting in the prior period
* Positively higher international loads have coincided with yield growth, up 11.1% YTD (pre currency). Domestic yield growth slowed in January, now up 0.1% YTD (pre-currency) due to strong domestic capacity additions
* Domestic loads of 75.2% in January (77.8% in the pcp) were impacted by the Queensland floods
* We estimate that Qantas generated ~$100m in additional revenue in January relative to the pcp (pre currency) despite the impact of the QLD floods
* Hedging update - Qantas' fuel requirements for FY11 are now 96% hedged at a worst-case crude oil price of ~$94.50/bbl (assuming $5 option premium). Fuel costs for 2H11 are expected to be ~$2bn (in line with previous guidance). In FY12 ~35% of fuel requirements are hedged at a worst case oil price of ~$101/bbl (assuming $5 option premium)
Detail:
* International remains the stand-out for Qantas and we continue to believe this will be the key driver of earnings growth in FY11
* Qantas continues to act rationally in terms of international capacity adding 3% FY11 YTD (excl Jetstar Asia). We believe this has been a key driver of yield and load strength (although the A380 outage has also resulted in reduced capacity on the European and US routes)
* The impact of the Queensland floods makes it difficult to assess the Domestic load stats. However slowing yield growth is not unexpected and coincides with the BITRE airfare index (yield pressure is primarily in the leisure segment)
* Qantas has added 11% in new domestic capacity YTD. Of this growth 46% is attributable to Mainline and QantasLink which we view positively as Business and Full economy fares continue to improve relative to the pcp
* We retain our Overweight recommendation for Qantas
* International yields remain well above pcp levels and January loads were also stronger than anticipated. However we flag that the growth trajectory of yields may slow in the second half as they begin to track stronger comps
As he largest single share holder in Qantas, one would assume J P Morgan have excellent and timely access to Qantas financial performance?
Perhaps the Unions should be by-passing QF management and questioning the veracity of J P Morgan's assessment, with Qantas largest share holder?
As an observation, if a carrier is not making costs at an 86% average load factor, it should not be in the game.
Tailwheel, someone in JP Morgan is going to be spanked for writing that, but it is difficult to know what for; writing the truth or writing a big fat lie, or making a simply awful mistake, because the statement is at variance with what Qantas says today.
Last edited by Sunfish; 22nd Aug 2011 at 19:28.
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JP Morgan is not the largest shareholder in Qantas, those shares are part of JP Morgan's custodial (trustee sort of thing) role for superannuation funds. The various funds own the shares but they are required to be held by a custodian who transacts at the direction of the fund in question.
The analysis comes from a separate part of the bank and no, they do not get special private access to any financial information, that would mean jail time if they did (assuming they got caught).
The analysis comes from a separate part of the bank and no, they do not get special private access to any financial information, that would mean jail time if they did (assuming they got caught).
Romulus:
Mate, it is extremely dangerous to assume that the Chinese walls that supposedly exist between various parts of financial institutions are impermeable.
I will bet my left testicle that any J. P. Morgan analyst who produced a negative report on Qantas before any other institutions did the same would be asked to perhaps "review" it because the Chinese Walls only reach so high.
It is also extremely dangerous to assume that a financial institution has your best interests at heart when one of its employees advises you to buy or sell certain stocks.
Even today, as we face a global financial melt down, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney are titillating its private clients with the idea that there are some uniquely "valuable buying opportunities" out there. This is nonsense. While there are no doubt opportunities, MSSB are unlikely to know what they are, and if they did know, they wouldn't be putting the average private clients into it unless their major customers and themselves had already got set.
Those little lessons cost me a lot of money to learn.
If you look at disclaimers on some investment products, they specifically state that while one part of their organization is suggesting that a stock is a "buy" another part may be shorting that same stock to the depths of the ocean.
The analysis comes from a separate part of the bank and no, they do not get special private access to any financial information, that would mean jail time if they did (assuming they got caught).
I will bet my left testicle that any J. P. Morgan analyst who produced a negative report on Qantas before any other institutions did the same would be asked to perhaps "review" it because the Chinese Walls only reach so high.
It is also extremely dangerous to assume that a financial institution has your best interests at heart when one of its employees advises you to buy or sell certain stocks.
Even today, as we face a global financial melt down, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney are titillating its private clients with the idea that there are some uniquely "valuable buying opportunities" out there. This is nonsense. While there are no doubt opportunities, MSSB are unlikely to know what they are, and if they did know, they wouldn't be putting the average private clients into it unless their major customers and themselves had already got set.
Those little lessons cost me a lot of money to learn.
If you look at disclaimers on some investment products, they specifically state that while one part of their organization is suggesting that a stock is a "buy" another part may be shorting that same stock to the depths of the ocean.
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Steve,
The below link is just a starting point if you want to know about Morgan. Suffice to say that you dont go to jail when you control the rule makers.
Enjoy the journey, it starts here;
The Illuminati Banksters: JPMorgan vs. Goldman Sachs
The below link is just a starting point if you want to know about Morgan. Suffice to say that you dont go to jail when you control the rule makers.
Enjoy the journey, it starts here;
The Illuminati Banksters: JPMorgan vs. Goldman Sachs
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if lislee gets cut from the executive she can still ask her nephew ,whom she promoted to manager of 'customer care', for a job.
ian, you should be very careful where you second staff from, they have you seen you bury the skeletons and they have kept the dates. your closure of customer complaints is breathtaking
ian, you should be very careful where you second staff from, they have you seen you bury the skeletons and they have kept the dates. your closure of customer complaints is breathtaking
Moderator
JP Morgan is not the largest shareholder in Qantas, those shares are part of JP Morgan's custodial (trustee sort of thing) role for superannuation funds. The various funds own the shares but they are required to be held by a custodian who transacts at the direction of the fund in question.
The analysis comes from a separate part of the bank and no, they do not get special private access to any financial information, that would mean jail time if they did (assuming they got caught).
With the shares now on special around $1.42, obviously the Mum and Dad investors are not impressed and are selling out ..... whilst strangely, the institutional investors are very quiet and sitting pat?
I wonder why........
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Ben Sandilands is on the money once again this morning.........
Obviously one of the few journos out there with a clear vision of what is happening to what was an iconic company, and not one of the mainstream upstart excuses for journos that just parrot out what QF media relations feeds them.
(apologies for the missing graphic in this article but, I think you still get the idea)
How Qantas has butchered London flights
August 23, 2011 – 7:40 am, by Ben Sandilands
Tomorrow when Qantas reports its full year results to June 30, we can expect more misleading rhetoric about how its international operations are mercilessly rendered uneconomic by competition from state run carriers and the ruinous pay claims of its employees, despite the best efforts of the world’s most overpaid airline executives.
But have a look at what the ‘new Spirit of Australia’ is doing to its flagship route to London, where it has traffic slots for up to four return A380 services daily.
Sydney-London on Qantas after the restructuring takes effect
Sydney-London before restructuring
The thinner red line on the top graphic is all that is left of the Qantas presence between Sydney-London, an A380 via Singapore, while Melbourne customers also get an A380 via Singapore to themselves.
The green squares are the gifting by Qantas to British Airways of the flights it could have operated, to provide its Australian service all the way to and from London, no matter whether via Singapore, Bangkok or Hong Kong.
But Qantas now expects those who are trying to support an Australian carrier to fly British Airways to deal with the overflow, its generosity with your loyalty so great that BA has had to upgrade its capacity from Boeing 777-200ERs for larger Boeing 747-400s, meaning the green squares representing those flights will be carrying far more seats previously provided on Qantas jets.
And unless the frequent flyer conditions are changed, anyone who is sold those BA operated flights using a BA rather than QF flight number will get less points on most economy fares than on Qantas. Unless you have joined the 82% of overseas travellers who have given up on Qantas in favor of competing airlines.
What is happening to Qantas is not about unfair competition, or the ‘outrageous’ pay demands of its staff, it is about the woefully dismal direction of the long haul carrier by a management and board that are infatuated with numbers games and the spread of the Jetstar franchise, and the abundant opportunities to flaunt the Qantas Sale Act because neither the government nor the opposition intends to do anything other than wring their hands and keep troughing it in the Chairmans Lounges.
While Qantas heads off to Asia to put full size sleeper seats in shorter range single aisle A320s in a new premium carrier (what on earth is Joyce thinking) it is running down its long haul operations in order to participate in an Asian market defended by obviously weak and unpopular and defenceless brands like Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific who will give up their markets overnight and make Qantas shareholders so fabulously rich that dividends will be reinstated.
For Qantas to trade on its Australian identity in these circumstances is obscenely misleading. The rationale offered for giving away half the London market is that it retires four aged 747s. Which have no real value except for scrap. That’s millions upon millions of dollars of future revenue hosed into the wind.
It won’t go to British Airways, but to the likes of Emirates, Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific because, as the market has shown for more than a decade of declining Qantas participation, consumers aren’t that silly. The “I still call Australia home” message has lost its credibility. It no longer tugs the heart strings. It is a sham, just like the Qantas trans Tasman flights that are painted up as Qantas but flown by a New Zealand entity that Qantas claims for tax purposes is an independently managed Kiwi company which it isn’t game to call for what it is.
There is no doubt that Jetstar makes sense as a business investment, even though consumers in Australia might have noticed it is anything but cheap these days, and that the best deals are still found on Qantas domestic services.
But the seeming self hatred of Qantas for the costs of excellence, and its unwillingness to build the long haul carrier in favor of adopting a defeatist approach to fleet, schedule and product, is a tragedy for this country.
August 23, 2011 – 7:40 am, by Ben Sandilands
Tomorrow when Qantas reports its full year results to June 30, we can expect more misleading rhetoric about how its international operations are mercilessly rendered uneconomic by competition from state run carriers and the ruinous pay claims of its employees, despite the best efforts of the world’s most overpaid airline executives.
But have a look at what the ‘new Spirit of Australia’ is doing to its flagship route to London, where it has traffic slots for up to four return A380 services daily.
Sydney-London on Qantas after the restructuring takes effect
Sydney-London before restructuring
The thinner red line on the top graphic is all that is left of the Qantas presence between Sydney-London, an A380 via Singapore, while Melbourne customers also get an A380 via Singapore to themselves.
The green squares are the gifting by Qantas to British Airways of the flights it could have operated, to provide its Australian service all the way to and from London, no matter whether via Singapore, Bangkok or Hong Kong.
But Qantas now expects those who are trying to support an Australian carrier to fly British Airways to deal with the overflow, its generosity with your loyalty so great that BA has had to upgrade its capacity from Boeing 777-200ERs for larger Boeing 747-400s, meaning the green squares representing those flights will be carrying far more seats previously provided on Qantas jets.
And unless the frequent flyer conditions are changed, anyone who is sold those BA operated flights using a BA rather than QF flight number will get less points on most economy fares than on Qantas. Unless you have joined the 82% of overseas travellers who have given up on Qantas in favor of competing airlines.
What is happening to Qantas is not about unfair competition, or the ‘outrageous’ pay demands of its staff, it is about the woefully dismal direction of the long haul carrier by a management and board that are infatuated with numbers games and the spread of the Jetstar franchise, and the abundant opportunities to flaunt the Qantas Sale Act because neither the government nor the opposition intends to do anything other than wring their hands and keep troughing it in the Chairmans Lounges.
While Qantas heads off to Asia to put full size sleeper seats in shorter range single aisle A320s in a new premium carrier (what on earth is Joyce thinking) it is running down its long haul operations in order to participate in an Asian market defended by obviously weak and unpopular and defenceless brands like Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific who will give up their markets overnight and make Qantas shareholders so fabulously rich that dividends will be reinstated.
For Qantas to trade on its Australian identity in these circumstances is obscenely misleading. The rationale offered for giving away half the London market is that it retires four aged 747s. Which have no real value except for scrap. That’s millions upon millions of dollars of future revenue hosed into the wind.
It won’t go to British Airways, but to the likes of Emirates, Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific because, as the market has shown for more than a decade of declining Qantas participation, consumers aren’t that silly. The “I still call Australia home” message has lost its credibility. It no longer tugs the heart strings. It is a sham, just like the Qantas trans Tasman flights that are painted up as Qantas but flown by a New Zealand entity that Qantas claims for tax purposes is an independently managed Kiwi company which it isn’t game to call for what it is.
There is no doubt that Jetstar makes sense as a business investment, even though consumers in Australia might have noticed it is anything but cheap these days, and that the best deals are still found on Qantas domestic services.
But the seeming self hatred of Qantas for the costs of excellence, and its unwillingness to build the long haul carrier in favor of adopting a defeatist approach to fleet, schedule and product, is a tragedy for this country.
Obviously one of the few journos out there with a clear vision of what is happening to what was an iconic company, and not one of the mainstream upstart excuses for journos that just parrot out what QF media relations feeds them.
(apologies for the missing graphic in this article but, I think you still get the idea)
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Originally Posted by TW
I know that. But the custodian ends up with almost a billion proxy votes at the AGM.
the custodian must vote at the direction of the beneficial owner.
Originally Posted by TW
I know that too. But an astute custodian with expose to almost a billion shares heading south, would be accessing every legal piece of financial and statistical data possible, from all sources, in order to present an accurate and authoritive opinion - and I suspect on this occasion that is exactly what they have done.
The fact that companies overall are recommending Buy and Sell positions whilst doing exactly the opposite in other areas of their business is actually a good thing. If there was 100% alignment in positions then there would definitely be something fishy going on. As long as it is not the case that the analysts for a given part of the bank are recommending buy at the exact time they are actively selling (i.e. directly pumping a stock so they can sell at an inflated price) then that's fine.
JP Morgan will analyse Qantas, no doubt about that. They will scrutinise every report concerning aviation they can gt to try and glean a legitimate advantage for their customers, that is what they are paid for. And having been involved in those types of Chinese walls they are an absolute pain in the arse because of the bureaucracy they cause but as a result they do work.
As an example of how seriously they are treated there are dedicated security personnel ensuring you can't even access conflicting parts of the business. If I'm a broker advising clients then I can use the publicly issued reprots, but there is no way in heck that I will ever be allowed within cooee of the institutional guys who do the takeover deals etc. That's not to say that leaks don't occur when someone on the inside tells a couple of friends, we've all seen enough movements to believe that happens, but nobody in their right mind is going to openly tell anyone inside the company what is illegal information.
Unfortuneately there's no perfect way around it, information is far too easily disseminated and business is by its very nature too interrelated to be perfectly isolated, but the mechanisms work to the gretaest possible extent.
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Romulous , you are spot on . Poor old Ben has never forgiven the bow-tie for stopping his freebies . Go back pre the bow-tie and read the gushing reports from the lad . Makes interesting his comments now . Maybe a membership of the Chairmans lounge could fix it .
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How the insto's vote upon whose instruction is a moot point, The real point is JP Morgan issued a research note totally contradictory to Joyce's recent public statements. Either the analyst was at the wrong briefing, can't read previous reports and / or can't add up ???? Then again perhaps someone else is guilding the lilly?
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Tomorrow when Qantas reports its full year results to June 30, we can expect more misleading rhetoric about how its international operations are mercilessly rendered uneconomic by competition from state run carriers and the ruinous pay claims of its employees, despite the best efforts of the world’s most overpaid airline executives.
I reckon AJ should cancel the conference, Ben is on the money as usual..
Only decent reporter with balls..
