Second airport debate, rebirth?
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Sydney
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with the talk of a high speed train system, wasnt there a move for a goulburn airport that was linked to both sydney and canberra by a fast rail system?
that could be a possible solution, worked for tokyo for narita
that could be a possible solution, worked for tokyo for narita
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australia
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For an enlightened discussion on the future of aviation in Australia, including airport expansion, high speed trains etc, please read the following links (hope they work). Some of the best information comes in the comments to the original posts, so please take the time to read.
The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | The Future of Air Travel?
The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | A Tale of Profit and Loss - The Future of Air Travel ? Part 2
Some highlights from the articles:
The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | The Future of Air Travel?
The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand | A Tale of Profit and Loss - The Future of Air Travel ? Part 2
Some highlights from the articles:
This chart (see article for chart) shows the fairly sobering picture that, with the exception of scenario four and five, both QANTAS and Virgin Blue are likely to become unprofitable between now and 2018. The scenario’s have not been assigned probabilities, however my gut feel is as follows:
The price of jet fuel will continue to increase at or above the current rate as we approach and past peak oil.
Both airlines will slow their capacity growth over the next couple of years before reducing it.
Both airlines will attempt to reduce their non-fuel operating costs, although this may be difficult due to inflation.
Revenue will decrease over time as fewer passengers can afford to travel, due to increases in the cost of air travel and the worsening economic situation associated with the onset of peak oil. I don’t see passenger numbers beginning to fall for a year or two yet, as I don’t think that the pinch from higher fuel prices has as yet significantly changed spending habits (either that or we are just going further into debt?).
This most closely resembles scenario three, meaning that as early as 2010, both of Australia’s major airlines could cease to be profitable. At some point, if they continue to be unprofitable they will become insolvent.(Bold mine)
The price of jet fuel will continue to increase at or above the current rate as we approach and past peak oil.
Both airlines will slow their capacity growth over the next couple of years before reducing it.
Both airlines will attempt to reduce their non-fuel operating costs, although this may be difficult due to inflation.
Revenue will decrease over time as fewer passengers can afford to travel, due to increases in the cost of air travel and the worsening economic situation associated with the onset of peak oil. I don’t see passenger numbers beginning to fall for a year or two yet, as I don’t think that the pinch from higher fuel prices has as yet significantly changed spending habits (either that or we are just going further into debt?).
This most closely resembles scenario three, meaning that as early as 2010, both of Australia’s major airlines could cease to be profitable. At some point, if they continue to be unprofitable they will become insolvent.(Bold mine)
The Aviation Green Paper forecasts perpetual growth in aviation demand for the foreseeable future. This is based on a number of assumptions, both stated and unstated, that are being invalidated by current events. With no mention of peak oil, or how its impacts will be mitigated, this leads to the unfortunate circumstance where the National Aviation Policy is likely to exacerbate the impact of peak oil on the aviation industry while avoiding the need to develop alternative transport modes such as high speed rail. This will likely leave Australians in the unfortunate situation of having a failing aviation industry with insufficient alternative transportation infrastructure. This situation is however avoidable if peak oil mitigation measures are implemented on a sufficient scale in an urgent manner.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Springfield
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The only problem with SYD:
- Peak hour congestion. Segregate RWY/Terminal use amongst the two parallels, expand domestic terminal to include the existing GA area, and more GA south of Southern Cross Drive. Taxiway limitations preclude efficient ground ops using runway crossings. Redefine separation standards to allow IVA-rate landings during IMC. RE-Define minimum approach speeds during peak hour.
Fallacies with Richmond:
- Townships of Richmond and Windsor. Expansion will be to north & south, alleviating noise concerns. Local communities big economic winner in expansion.
- Railway. This is a slight development cost to move under the future north/south runway.
- Fog. Cat 3 C.
- Road & Rail. This is a slight development cost.
- Peak hour congestion. Segregate RWY/Terminal use amongst the two parallels, expand domestic terminal to include the existing GA area, and more GA south of Southern Cross Drive. Taxiway limitations preclude efficient ground ops using runway crossings. Redefine separation standards to allow IVA-rate landings during IMC. RE-Define minimum approach speeds during peak hour.
Fallacies with Richmond:
- Townships of Richmond and Windsor. Expansion will be to north & south, alleviating noise concerns. Local communities big economic winner in expansion.
- Railway. This is a slight development cost to move under the future north/south runway.
- Fog. Cat 3 C.
- Road & Rail. This is a slight development cost.
Join Date: Dec 2002
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And to anybody who thinks remote 2nd airports like Southern Highlands or god forbid Newcastle or Goulburn are an idea. Just ask the customers, airlines, and oil companies. "No", "no", and "sorry we can't provide it cheap enough".
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Vote 1 - YSRI for 2nd Sydney airport
I hope the uniforms leave YSRI and the civilians move in. That way, we don't have to put up with their unconscionable grab for airspace in the Sydney basin.
