What will become of REX
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 20
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Krusty
For the last 6 months you have been saying that the exodus is coming. The airlines were going to take most of the Rex pilots in November of last year according to you! Here we 4 months later and attrition is actually slowing and crew numbers will soon start stabalising.
For the last 6 months you have been saying that the exodus is coming. The airlines were going to take most of the Rex pilots in November of last year according to you! Here we 4 months later and attrition is actually slowing and crew numbers will soon start stabalising.
Actually shooter, I've been saying it for 12 months! If a 60% loss of pilots in the last year is not an exodus, then I am unsure of what planet you have been living on. In the past, attrition, any sort of attrition was handled by airline management in one way only. Recruitment.
REX have been dealing with this problem in the same old tried and true fashion. The fact that they have not totally collapsed is due to a severe reduction in the experience requirements of their candidates. As a result we are seeing the employment of people that only a year ago would not have been considered. Some of these individuals may work out. Some will not, and in fact some are not! The essential fact however is that we are now scraping the bottom of a barrel that will take years to replenish. The root cause of the barrel's demise has not been addressed in any way. Ergo, unless you believe in some sort of devine intervention, the barrel will soon be empty.
Now back to the issue of the exodus. If a 60% loss is not considered an exodus IYHO, then a further 60% PA over the next 2 years or so should be considered normal!? Problem is that these people will still need to be replaced. Oops... forgot about the barrel!
So you see the exodus is well and truely on. If you honestly think that REX pilots will not continue to leave at a similar rate to that of the last year, then I'm afraid you haven't really been up to date with the expansion plans of the major airlines. It will continue, and continue for some time. Remember the numbers quoted in the REX chief of staff's press release. Late last year the CP made very similar statements to what you are making now. It has since come to pass that those comments may have been a tad optimistic. Not related are you?
Anyway, as enjoyable as this banter has been, the outcome will continue to play out over the next year or so. For the sake of REX, I hope you are right, and if that is the case the majority of people on this forum are wrong!
REX have been dealing with this problem in the same old tried and true fashion. The fact that they have not totally collapsed is due to a severe reduction in the experience requirements of their candidates. As a result we are seeing the employment of people that only a year ago would not have been considered. Some of these individuals may work out. Some will not, and in fact some are not! The essential fact however is that we are now scraping the bottom of a barrel that will take years to replenish. The root cause of the barrel's demise has not been addressed in any way. Ergo, unless you believe in some sort of devine intervention, the barrel will soon be empty.
Now back to the issue of the exodus. If a 60% loss is not considered an exodus IYHO, then a further 60% PA over the next 2 years or so should be considered normal!? Problem is that these people will still need to be replaced. Oops... forgot about the barrel!
So you see the exodus is well and truely on. If you honestly think that REX pilots will not continue to leave at a similar rate to that of the last year, then I'm afraid you haven't really been up to date with the expansion plans of the major airlines. It will continue, and continue for some time. Remember the numbers quoted in the REX chief of staff's press release. Late last year the CP made very similar statements to what you are making now. It has since come to pass that those comments may have been a tad optimistic. Not related are you?
Anyway, as enjoyable as this banter has been, the outcome will continue to play out over the next year or so. For the sake of REX, I hope you are right, and if that is the case the majority of people on this forum are wrong!
Last edited by KRUSTY 34; 30th Mar 2008 at 11:47.
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Alice Springs
Posts: 1,744
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The barrell??
There was a long period (a few decades) when pilots were a dime a dozen and airlines just needed to snap their fingers whenever they needed more pilots. There has always been a large "barrell" full of wannabies who were instantly available. this was good for flying schools, but disastorous for the rest of the industry and the pilots. But it has backfired. Pilots have lost confidence and are reluctent to spend their money, many have given up, and many have gone overseas. And some of our airlines relied on having a "barrell" of wannabies in reserve, with no cost or committment from the airline. So, because of this some of our airlines have not planned for training and replacement of pilots and are now having to cancel flights.
It's to do with money. Companies are there to make money for shareholders. If downsizing makes them more profitable, that's what they will do. Their object is not to provide service, or to train and employ people.(they would rather not) Their object is to make profits.
But some profits will decline, because some companies have relied on the "barrell" full of self funded pilots, and have had no long term plan. The pilots have had no long term plan either. So they go.
It's to do with money. Companies are there to make money for shareholders. If downsizing makes them more profitable, that's what they will do. Their object is not to provide service, or to train and employ people.(they would rather not) Their object is to make profits.
But some profits will decline, because some companies have relied on the "barrell" full of self funded pilots, and have had no long term plan. The pilots have had no long term plan either. So they go.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Australis
Posts: 95
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
That's the problem bushy, no one with power has a long term plan these days.
Politicians, CEO's, senior management of public companies, etc it's all "who cares about 5 or even 10 years time, I need to get re-elected/ keep my job next year or in 18 months time. It doesn't matter if I wreck decades of positive work to fudge the next financial figures in my favour".
All retarded really, in for the quick buck and f
the rest.
This must change before the white collar criminals destroy everything.
Politicians, CEO's, senior management of public companies, etc it's all "who cares about 5 or even 10 years time, I need to get re-elected/ keep my job next year or in 18 months time. It doesn't matter if I wreck decades of positive work to fudge the next financial figures in my favour".
All retarded really, in for the quick buck and f
the rest.This must change before the white collar criminals destroy everything.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 1,569
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
the engineering industry (LAME's) are suffering the same thing. Fewer & fewer apprentices taking up the tade & now we see a shortage of these very much needed guys/gals. The part answer for those Co's? hire OS labor which we are seeing now. The same thing is happening in the crew at the pointy end, hire OS`labor. The pilot shortage is know to be world wide, heavens know I read just the other day that 20 Chinese new airlines want to start up but have no crew so in light of that the pilot market now in OZ is world wide not just in-house as is the same for every other country seeking drivers.
Opertunities aboud these days, but at what long term price? that is the zillion dollar question !
"Krusty 34" excellent veiw points in yr posts.
CW
Opertunities aboud these days, but at what long term price? that is the zillion dollar question !
"Krusty 34" excellent veiw points in yr posts.
CW
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Anywhere but here
Posts: 67
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I couldn't give a flying rat's testie about Management. I feel for the poor ops and crewing folk walking into an Office with such crap going on around them. Sad to say I've done some time in that Office, and I tells you wouldnt be fun nowerdays!
Dixondik.
I don't think many here gives 2 tosses about management, (shooter, aircraft, and kev09 exepted of course). But sadly you are right. It is their actions, or more to the point inaction that help create such a difficult working environment for everyone else.
Frankly, I wonder how they manage to sleep at night?
I don't think many here gives 2 tosses about management, (shooter, aircraft, and kev09 exepted of course). But sadly you are right. It is their actions, or more to the point inaction that help create such a difficult working environment for everyone else.
Frankly, I wonder how they manage to sleep at night?
KRUSTY...........
Not too well, I'd imagine, particularly if they own shares in the Company. 
And based on the present (and constantly declining) share price, I still think that it's unfortunately looking like it will be all over for Rex by about October this year. Hope I'm wrong.
Frankly, I wonder how they [REX management] manage to sleep at night?
And based on the present (and constantly declining) share price, I still think that it's unfortunately looking like it will be all over for Rex by about October this year. Hope I'm wrong.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 20
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Krusty
Your suggestion that Rex has lowered standards in a desperate bid to crew aircraft is completely without foundation. I can assure you the recruitment process has not changed and only pilots who are of suitable calibre are being invited to work for Rex. Further the induction and training process is as comprehensive as it has ever been and any candidate who is not able to meet the high standard of a Rex pilot will not be afforded consessions simply because "the barrell" is getting low!
Your suggestion that Rex has lowered standards in a desperate bid to crew aircraft is completely without foundation. I can assure you the recruitment process has not changed and only pilots who are of suitable calibre are being invited to work for Rex. Further the induction and training process is as comprehensive as it has ever been and any candidate who is not able to meet the high standard of a Rex pilot will not be afforded consessions simply because "the barrell" is getting low!
Shooter, you really should stop shooting from the hip.
I said that REX have reduced the experience "Requirements" for their candidates. A year ago it was 1500 hours total, ATPL subjects (essential for command), and at least 500 hours Multi under the IFR (also essential for command).
Seeing you're the man with all the answers, what are the minimum "Requirements" today. I know what they are, and so does everybody else. Do you?
As far as standards are concerned, you are absolutely right. I have even mentioned this fact in previous posts. I for one would fight tooth and nail to have these standards remain. I believe the head of Check and Training feels likewise. When dealing with a less experienced candidate the maintanence of the standards can however come at a price. That price is an increase in the fail rate and/or an increase in the time and cost that it takes to train a new F/O. An interesting phenomena we are seeing now is the employment of a "Third" check, where previously it was "Two" strikes and you're out!
Finally, so the "barrel" is getting low is it?
I said that REX have reduced the experience "Requirements" for their candidates. A year ago it was 1500 hours total, ATPL subjects (essential for command), and at least 500 hours Multi under the IFR (also essential for command).
Seeing you're the man with all the answers, what are the minimum "Requirements" today. I know what they are, and so does everybody else. Do you?
As far as standards are concerned, you are absolutely right. I have even mentioned this fact in previous posts. I for one would fight tooth and nail to have these standards remain. I believe the head of Check and Training feels likewise. When dealing with a less experienced candidate the maintanence of the standards can however come at a price. That price is an increase in the fail rate and/or an increase in the time and cost that it takes to train a new F/O. An interesting phenomena we are seeing now is the employment of a "Third" check, where previously it was "Two" strikes and you're out!
Finally, so the "barrel" is getting low is it?
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: australia
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Okay Shooter
If you have not reached the bottom of the barrel.
How come Rex will be using 200 hour Cadets instead
of 1500 hour GA recruits as FO inductees.
However management spin numbers there is
a difference between 1500 and 200.
But its allright, the training program will produce
the same end result. Fool someone else!
The real question is how long will Rex last.
If you have not reached the bottom of the barrel.
How come Rex will be using 200 hour Cadets instead
of 1500 hour GA recruits as FO inductees.
However management spin numbers there is
a difference between 1500 and 200.
But its allright, the training program will produce
the same end result. Fool someone else!
The real question is how long will Rex last.
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Australia
Posts: 211
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
They need to use Cadets, because anyone with a CPL & the mins is probably looking elsewhere.
Come to think of it, people without the Mins are getting snapped up to fly Dash 8's for more money, better conditions & at least an aircraft with an APU so the summer cabin temp is bearable.
Think about it - if someone has 800TT/250T, would they not endure another 250 hours in GA, meet DJ's requirements & jump into a jet as a FO & get paid more then ZL pays their skippers?
Even if they want regional lifestyle - then QFL or Surv Aus are offering a much better deal.
It would be a tough call to take a job at Rex - since even the decent GA operators have realised they need to pay above award to retain crew - it would be a decrease in pay & conditions for a lot of us to leave GA for a Rex gig.
If you can't afford to pay your team properly, you can't afford to be in operation - it's really that simple.
Come to think of it, people without the Mins are getting snapped up to fly Dash 8's for more money, better conditions & at least an aircraft with an APU so the summer cabin temp is bearable.
Think about it - if someone has 800TT/250T, would they not endure another 250 hours in GA, meet DJ's requirements & jump into a jet as a FO & get paid more then ZL pays their skippers?
Even if they want regional lifestyle - then QFL or Surv Aus are offering a much better deal.
It would be a tough call to take a job at Rex - since even the decent GA operators have realised they need to pay above award to retain crew - it would be a decrease in pay & conditions for a lot of us to leave GA for a Rex gig.
If you can't afford to pay your team properly, you can't afford to be in operation - it's really that simple.
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Alice Springs
Posts: 1,744
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The barrell???
The barrell is getting low????
So it should. It is not reasonable to expect lots of pilots to spend lots of money and effort just so they can be "in the barrell" for an indefinite time.
"High standard"airlines have a properly planned, long term recruiting and training program, and provisional agreements with wannabies. These ones do not get caught when the barrell is not so full.
A big shakeout is occurring, and things are changing.
I hope australian pilots and wannabies do not let things go back to what we had in the past.
So it should. It is not reasonable to expect lots of pilots to spend lots of money and effort just so they can be "in the barrell" for an indefinite time.
"High standard"airlines have a properly planned, long term recruiting and training program, and provisional agreements with wannabies. These ones do not get caught when the barrell is not so full.
A big shakeout is occurring, and things are changing.
I hope australian pilots and wannabies do not let things go back to what we had in the past.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 20
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Pharlap
Yes there is a big difference beween 1500 and 200 but as you are aware, some 200 hour pilots have performed better in their training and checks than some 1500 hr pilots. Given that the cadet scheme has been a tried and proven way of crewing airlines the world over for many years including Kendell airlines before the Ansett collapse, why do you think it will not work for Rex?
Yes there is a big difference beween 1500 and 200 but as you are aware, some 200 hour pilots have performed better in their training and checks than some 1500 hr pilots. Given that the cadet scheme has been a tried and proven way of crewing airlines the world over for many years including Kendell airlines before the Ansett collapse, why do you think it will not work for Rex?
Given that the cadet scheme has been a tried and proven way of crewing airlines the world over
After they graduate, the cadets are then Pilots, and, like all other pilots, will go to whichever job is most advantageous to them. It's sure gonna hurt when the first guy you've invested all that money in hands in his notice as he's off to fly the heavy metal.
Don't think it can Happen? easyJet lost 50% of its first Cadet course to BA and Virgin within 12 months of their graduating. And THEY were given jet jobs from the outset!
All so note your classic "Strawman" argument against KRUSTY, saying he talked about reduced "Standards" when he said "Requirements", and then not responding when he spelled it out to you.
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Window Seat
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think shooter is referring to places like Lufthansa. Cadetships that offer real progression and a fantastic career path run like a fine Swiss (or German) clock.
None of this BS such as the Qlink or Rex Traineeship/ cadet schemes. Who in their right mind in their early 20's (Qlink trainees); will want to stay at Qlink forever. Kids these days want progression progression progression. Not even necessarily more money but the chance to learn a new type, fly a newer ship. The sooner the regional carriers start acting like second fiddle to the domestic carriers (as they should) and not expect that their pilots should stay forever the better. Two or three years on a dash or Saab and progression onto a jet is what’s needed. If guys want to stay on the Dash then they should be paid fairly.
We can clearly see that two or three years on a dash or Saab and jet progression is working… It’s just that Virgin is a sperate company…
Anyway… I’m done…
None of this BS such as the Qlink or Rex Traineeship/ cadet schemes. Who in their right mind in their early 20's (Qlink trainees); will want to stay at Qlink forever. Kids these days want progression progression progression. Not even necessarily more money but the chance to learn a new type, fly a newer ship. The sooner the regional carriers start acting like second fiddle to the domestic carriers (as they should) and not expect that their pilots should stay forever the better. Two or three years on a dash or Saab and progression onto a jet is what’s needed. If guys want to stay on the Dash then they should be paid fairly.
We can clearly see that two or three years on a dash or Saab and jet progression is working… It’s just that Virgin is a sperate company…
Anyway… I’m done…