Why is OZ even considering Lion Air???
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The success, or otherwise, assuming they get up and running, will be determined by one factor only - if there is even a hint of Indonesian pilots being involved in any way in the operations/management etc of the "Australian" part of the operation then commercially they have kicked an own goal, QF/VB/porn and pussy won't even have to say anything, a raised eyebrow will be enough to send a current affair/today tonight etc off to do the story of the Indonesian aviation scene (doesn't have to be Lion specific) - and as we all know there really is quite a story. 
IF the Oz operation is crewed and managed locally, IF the weaknesses within Indonesian aviation are acknowledged, IF it is pointed out and reinforced and proven (as required) that the Oz operation is indeed totally separate from Lion Indonesia, IF the Australian aviation safety record and the use of local pilots/management/new aircraft is successfully highlighted and emphasised to the market - then maybe there's half a chance comercially.
Suppose we'll have to wait and see whether Lion Oz have similar views.
Of course just IMHO - and WTF would I know!
IF the Oz operation is crewed and managed locally, IF the weaknesses within Indonesian aviation are acknowledged, IF it is pointed out and reinforced and proven (as required) that the Oz operation is indeed totally separate from Lion Indonesia, IF the Australian aviation safety record and the use of local pilots/management/new aircraft is successfully highlighted and emphasised to the market - then maybe there's half a chance comercially.
Suppose we'll have to wait and see whether Lion Oz have similar views.
Of course just IMHO - and WTF would I know!
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Also, yes EU has come down very heavily on Indonesian airlines because of the safety record, but Garuda did announce a big order for 777-300ERs at the Singapore Air Show, and I guess that order would not have been announced if Boeing and Garuda did not believe that Indonesia is heading in the right direction to gain EU approvals. Boeing placed some conditions on Lion when the order for 737-900ERs was announced - Boeing does not want to have one of their planes written off with passengers on board.
Thought: SAW in Queensland could provide a lot of training support for the Indonesian part of the operation. There could be a lot of benefits from the relationship for the Indonesian operation.
Thought: SAW in Queensland could provide a lot of training support for the Indonesian part of the operation. There could be a lot of benefits from the relationship for the Indonesian operation.
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The only conditions Boeing placed on Lion is to mandate only their 737-400 crew will move to 737-900ER not the Md88....thats it... zero safety mandates or audits....not even a IOSA...
Evertonian
I have seen pasengers board aircraft that quite frankly would still get on if one wing was on fire...if the ticket price was low enough!
....What? Like Pilots on sub-load?
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For those interested have a look at Fragrant Harbour, thread about "demise of HKA", an interesting article posted about how Indo aviation has set the safety record back 5 years.
Pretty much supports my previous post.
When all this started a few months ago the boss of SAW, Mr Charlton, indicated he perceived "no problems regarding the Indo safety record" and "no reason why people wouldn't fly Lion(oz)."
IMHO he was wrong then, if similar thoughts still persist in Lion(oz) management then they are wrong now and should they actually start operating they deserve to fail - as I believe they would.
IF they have matured, looked at the real world and have devised a strategy to mitigate the Indo (aviation safety) connection and demonstrate why it will have no bearing on Lion(oz) then they have a chance.
As for people climbing on any carrier if the price is right - not when there are other LCC connections (porn/pussy) around, maybe not quite as convenient but based, and operated, from countries that have a different safety record to that of Indonesia.
And the brief from porn/pussy to their ad agencies: "allude, but do not state, to the punters they will die on Lion(oz) but wont with us because of our safety record which we can prove - be subtle, play with their minds!"
One wonders what the ads might look like.
Pretty much supports my previous post.
When all this started a few months ago the boss of SAW, Mr Charlton, indicated he perceived "no problems regarding the Indo safety record" and "no reason why people wouldn't fly Lion(oz)."
IMHO he was wrong then, if similar thoughts still persist in Lion(oz) management then they are wrong now and should they actually start operating they deserve to fail - as I believe they would.
IF they have matured, looked at the real world and have devised a strategy to mitigate the Indo (aviation safety) connection and demonstrate why it will have no bearing on Lion(oz) then they have a chance.
As for people climbing on any carrier if the price is right - not when there are other LCC connections (porn/pussy) around, maybe not quite as convenient but based, and operated, from countries that have a different safety record to that of Indonesia.
And the brief from porn/pussy to their ad agencies: "allude, but do not state, to the punters they will die on Lion(oz) but wont with us because of our safety record which we can prove - be subtle, play with their minds!"
One wonders what the ads might look like.
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...and if the recent G/A by a familiar A320 in Melbourne is any indication of the exemplary standards demanded by said 'pussy/porn' operators just how long can the ad agencies run with the myth of 'safety' over there?
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Full service operations
And when would you be willing to pay the full price of a full service airline on Oz. You want the money they offer - with all FOC travel. It is not you who will make a full service airline a reality, it is Joe Hunt, a member of the traveling public.
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Hmmmmmm 
For "8888" I would suggest "alleged" stories of near misses will be trumped by pictures of burning, broken aircraft and lists of passengers either dead or unaccounted for, every time.
The ad agencies could continue until such time as there are pictures of burning, broken aircraft and lists...etc where the aircraft is Oz registered/operated.
Hasn't happened yet but, like everything in life, tomorrow's a new day and anything's possible.
Now if I really wanted to finish off on a bitchy note (which is far below my dignity
) I would suggest that should an incident occur in Oz then all hell will break loose from the regulator wheras in Indonesia the authorities are either too busy, too lazy, too incompetent or too paid off to care and killing people is simply the price for "doing business."
Luckily I do not want to finish on such a note!
Trust that has resolved the concerns you have raised.
regards
galdian
For "8888" I would suggest "alleged" stories of near misses will be trumped by pictures of burning, broken aircraft and lists of passengers either dead or unaccounted for, every time.
The ad agencies could continue until such time as there are pictures of burning, broken aircraft and lists...etc where the aircraft is Oz registered/operated.
Hasn't happened yet but, like everything in life, tomorrow's a new day and anything's possible.
Now if I really wanted to finish off on a bitchy note (which is far below my dignity
) I would suggest that should an incident occur in Oz then all hell will break loose from the regulator wheras in Indonesia the authorities are either too busy, too lazy, too incompetent or too paid off to care and killing people is simply the price for "doing business."Luckily I do not want to finish on such a note!
Trust that has resolved the concerns you have raised.
regards
galdian
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Not really, but no bitchiness taken... Are the regulators not supposed to operate in such a way that their actions preempt a nasty 'incident', not simply allow all hell to brake loose after the fact? The 'alleged' incident above and others thus far take some explaining in order to use that word "alleged".
Surely the small Indonesian travel market cannot be compared to the vibrancy of what we are doing in Oz?
Just a bunch of bush pilots using heavy metal on short (and expensive) sectors.
Just a bunch of bush pilots using heavy metal on short (and expensive) sectors.
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Panicky pilots caused jet tragedyFont Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print By Stephen Fitzpatrick | March 26, 2008
AN Indonesian jetliner smashed into the ocean, obliterating all trace of its 102 occupants, after its pilots accidentally disengaged the autopilot while they were trying to reset a failed navigational system, an inquiry has found.
The Adam Air Boeing 737 was en route from Surabaya, East Java, to Manado, North Sulawesi, when it foundered on New Year's Day last year.
The investigation details the terrifying final moments as the two inexperienced and poorly trained pilots veered off course in stormy weather, tried to reset their malfunctioning instruments using a guide book that had been downloaded from an unauthorised website and then failed to right the craft as it banked and dived almost 25,000 feet in just over a minute.
The findings probably come too late to affect the company: Adam Air was grounded last week on safety concerns, days after announcing it was insolvent and needed tens of billions of rupiah to continue operating.
The operator, founded by parliamentary speaker Agung Laksono and businesswoman Sandra Ang - and named for her chief executive son Adam, 27, - has a history of going off course at the strategic and operational level.
The pilots of the doomed flight DHI 574 can be heard on the cockpit voice recorder expressing panic that they were heading in the wrong direction and into a violent storm.
The two became so fixated on rectifying the problem that they ignored automated cockpit warnings to take control of the plane as it banked 100 degrees to the right and then pitched 60 degrees forward.
One year previously, an Adam Air flight had veered hundreds of kilometres from its intended route and landed on a little-used airstrip in Sumbawa, eastern Indonesia. Investigations into the instrument failure that caused that incident were criticised as cursory and part of a political cover-up.
A National Transportation Safety Committee senior director Mardjono Siswosuwarno admitted yesterday it was possible the same equipment failure that caused the 2006 incident was behind last year's disaster.
The crashed aircraft's Inertial Reference System, which helps the autopilot system maintain its bearing, had failed multiple times in the months before the disaster, according to Adam Air maintenance records.
However, investigators found senior pilots at the airline were unable to explain how the IRS system worked. Nor did the airline provide training in IRS system failure or in how to right an upset aircraft.
The report notes a range of failings in individual pilot abilities and the airline's training and maintenance regimes.
It suggests the entire industry has a long way to go before an estimated 34 million passengers per annum can fly with any expectation of safety.
Indonesia recently signed a $22 million transport safety assistance package with Australia, and trains with the International Aviation Safety Commission. Last month, it received a surprise award for its air traffic control systems from the prestigious Jane's Airport Review, although a European Union ban remains on Indonesian aircraft flying in its airspace.
Herman Mulyadi, an air force colonel and medical doctor who is also a member of the National Transportation Safety Committee, said yesterday the Adam Air crash should not be regarded as the result of "human error" but rather of "human failing ... because this is one of the risks of flying".
"There was a failure in human performance and to err is human," he said.
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This is basic CRM stuff. Remember the L1011 in the Florida everglades?
Some interesting observation regarding the senior company pilots, too.
AN Indonesian jetliner smashed into the ocean, obliterating all trace of its 102 occupants, after its pilots accidentally disengaged the autopilot while they were trying to reset a failed navigational system, an inquiry has found.
The Adam Air Boeing 737 was en route from Surabaya, East Java, to Manado, North Sulawesi, when it foundered on New Year's Day last year.
The investigation details the terrifying final moments as the two inexperienced and poorly trained pilots veered off course in stormy weather, tried to reset their malfunctioning instruments using a guide book that had been downloaded from an unauthorised website and then failed to right the craft as it banked and dived almost 25,000 feet in just over a minute.
The findings probably come too late to affect the company: Adam Air was grounded last week on safety concerns, days after announcing it was insolvent and needed tens of billions of rupiah to continue operating.
The operator, founded by parliamentary speaker Agung Laksono and businesswoman Sandra Ang - and named for her chief executive son Adam, 27, - has a history of going off course at the strategic and operational level.
The pilots of the doomed flight DHI 574 can be heard on the cockpit voice recorder expressing panic that they were heading in the wrong direction and into a violent storm.
The two became so fixated on rectifying the problem that they ignored automated cockpit warnings to take control of the plane as it banked 100 degrees to the right and then pitched 60 degrees forward.
One year previously, an Adam Air flight had veered hundreds of kilometres from its intended route and landed on a little-used airstrip in Sumbawa, eastern Indonesia. Investigations into the instrument failure that caused that incident were criticised as cursory and part of a political cover-up.
A National Transportation Safety Committee senior director Mardjono Siswosuwarno admitted yesterday it was possible the same equipment failure that caused the 2006 incident was behind last year's disaster.
The crashed aircraft's Inertial Reference System, which helps the autopilot system maintain its bearing, had failed multiple times in the months before the disaster, according to Adam Air maintenance records.
However, investigators found senior pilots at the airline were unable to explain how the IRS system worked. Nor did the airline provide training in IRS system failure or in how to right an upset aircraft.
The report notes a range of failings in individual pilot abilities and the airline's training and maintenance regimes.
It suggests the entire industry has a long way to go before an estimated 34 million passengers per annum can fly with any expectation of safety.
Indonesia recently signed a $22 million transport safety assistance package with Australia, and trains with the International Aviation Safety Commission. Last month, it received a surprise award for its air traffic control systems from the prestigious Jane's Airport Review, although a European Union ban remains on Indonesian aircraft flying in its airspace.
Herman Mulyadi, an air force colonel and medical doctor who is also a member of the National Transportation Safety Committee, said yesterday the Adam Air crash should not be regarded as the result of "human error" but rather of "human failing ... because this is one of the risks of flying".
"There was a failure in human performance and to err is human," he said.
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This is basic CRM stuff. Remember the L1011 in the Florida everglades?
Some interesting observation regarding the senior company pilots, too.
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8888
Yeah, OK - use of the word "alleged" regarding some incidents was inappropriate, would have been more appropriate to maybe say "alleged accidents" which are fortunately lacking in Oz.
How do you quantify if the regulator is doing things properly??
I can only do so by looking at broken aircraft, body bags and manifests of persons missing, "presumed dead"; so far fortunately lacking in Oz, not so in Indonesia.
In fairness the regulator is only one part of all the components (training, resources, aircraft airworthiness etc etc) that come together to build a framework in an effort to maximise safety and minimise accidents, incidents will always occur (hell you can injure yourself getting out of bed and falling over the cat, if the cat doesn't get you the meteor hitting your house surely well! ), hopefully they don't turn into accidents and weaknesses that caused the incident(s) are identified and addressed.
Yeah, OK - use of the word "alleged" regarding some incidents was inappropriate, would have been more appropriate to maybe say "alleged accidents" which are fortunately lacking in Oz.
How do you quantify if the regulator is doing things properly??
I can only do so by looking at broken aircraft, body bags and manifests of persons missing, "presumed dead"; so far fortunately lacking in Oz, not so in Indonesia.
In fairness the regulator is only one part of all the components (training, resources, aircraft airworthiness etc etc) that come together to build a framework in an effort to maximise safety and minimise accidents, incidents will always occur (hell you can injure yourself getting out of bed and falling over the cat, if the cat doesn't get you the meteor hitting your house surely well!
), hopefully they don't turn into accidents and weaknesses that caused the incident(s) are identified and addressed.
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having just read the above report in full I'm impressed that Adam Air actually HAD some maintenance records!
OK so lets get serious - IF you believe CRM is an integral part of safety then maybe, speaking generally, it's time to acknowledge that the traditions and culture of certain parts of the world are incompatible with what's required to maximise safety in modern operations and for an external body (remember it wasn't Korean Air management who decided crashing aircraft and killing people was a bad thing it was the insurance companies) to come forward and say:
" right you lot, if you want to operate aircraft you will have in your ops manual stated company policy that outlines the obligation and responsibility for ALL crew to hear and absorb information and react appropriately, a method whereby the copilot can express concerns to the Captain culminating in the copilot being required, with the stated support of the company and without fear of retribution from any individuals, to take over should issues be unresolved and the safety of the aircraft is in question.
Company management will provide entheuastic training and support to reflect the above, monitor compliance and deal firmly with miscreants.
We don't give a f**k how your society is structured, the above is solely aimed at improving air safety world wide - if you don't like it then don't fly."
So any nice little acronym (ICAO, IATA, someone, anyone??) who'll step up??
Not holding my breath!
OK so lets get serious - IF you believe CRM is an integral part of safety then maybe, speaking generally, it's time to acknowledge that the traditions and culture of certain parts of the world are incompatible with what's required to maximise safety in modern operations and for an external body (remember it wasn't Korean Air management who decided crashing aircraft and killing people was a bad thing it was the insurance companies) to come forward and say:
" right you lot, if you want to operate aircraft you will have in your ops manual stated company policy that outlines the obligation and responsibility for ALL crew to hear and absorb information and react appropriately, a method whereby the copilot can express concerns to the Captain culminating in the copilot being required, with the stated support of the company and without fear of retribution from any individuals, to take over should issues be unresolved and the safety of the aircraft is in question.
Company management will provide entheuastic training and support to reflect the above, monitor compliance and deal firmly with miscreants.
We don't give a f**k how your society is structured, the above is solely aimed at improving air safety world wide - if you don't like it then don't fly."
So any nice little acronym (ICAO, IATA, someone, anyone??) who'll step up??
Not holding my breath!
