Concern For Qantas.

[Sunfish]

4PW, I am being unemotional. I am simply saying that I fail to see how Qantas can effectively double in value through the magical laying on of hands by a private equity fund.

Now these guys are not fools, and we already know they have an exit strategy maybe five years down the track. So what I'm asking is what magic can the new owners do that will double Qantas's value in five years? I'm sure they have a (highly secret) spreadsheet that explains it.

Is it going to come from travel growth? I wouldn't have thought so, growth numbers would already be "captured" by Qantas's current value assuming analysts and continuous disclosure are working as they should, unless Qantas is going to become the Ryanair of the Asia/Pacific region, something I doubt Asian countries would allow.

The simplest, "Occams Razor" theory would be that the new owners will use workchoices to stage, as Freddy Kreuger said, the mother of all industrial disputes and reduce the terms and conditions of those Qantas staff who remain after the sackings and redundancies. However at the same time Qantas must maintain its monopoly on capacity and stop anyone else (like Singapore airlines) increasing capacity in the marketplace.

It may be instructive to look at the work practices, customer service and general behaviour of another airline (Ryanair) this group is connected with. I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions about the desirability of QF heading in that direction.

It's difficult to see how the Federal Government could stop Qantas from doing anything it likes because any "undertakings" it gives can be carefully crafted with loopholes, for example, QF could undertake to do maintenance in Australia, but use cheaper overseas labor.

I guess I could just be cynical and maybe there is a brand new strategy that will be sweetness and light, flowere and chocolates all round, pay increases, cheaper fares and better services, but with the current management team I don't think so.

I guess the real issue now is if Howard can get re-elected before the chopping starts.

[freddyKrueger]

...reduce the terms and conditions of those Qantas staff who remain after the sackings and redundancies.

For pilots & engineers this represents handing the opposition a big competive advantage. These two groups are going to be the limiting factor in growth for the forseeable future for most, if not all QF's major competitors. So letting them go/ slashing conditions simply strengthes your opponents. Qantas may well have locals knocking on the door to join, CX, SQ & EK don't. Perhaps denying your competitors the advantage, by monopolising the CREW instead of the routes may be smarter. Nice & clean, no politics... Who says you need an MBA.

However at the same time Qantas must maintain its monopoly on capacity and stop anyone else (like Singapore airlines) increasing capacity in the marketplace.

Smells like a deal to be done between Johny and APA for the timing. A scandal in the making...

[Mud Skipper]

Initially I thought that was a question......

Would have been an easy answer, along the lines of ever decreasing.

There was a time when Qantas pilots thought they had the best flying jobs in the world and even accepted less pay than some OS companies offered because we got to live in Oz.

Now you would be lucky to find one pilot who gives a rats for the company. Congrats CM you have the honour of helming the Wreck of the Hesperus.

[speeeedy]

Any promises they have regarding the future of Qantas, such as:

"Qantas will continue to do maintenance in Australia"

are worthless, because the Dixon plan is very simple, grow Jetstar to a point that Jetstar starts to wetlease for and on behalf of Qantas.

The fact that Jetstar planes (even if in Qantas colours) might be maintained elsewhere means they didn't lie, Qantas will continue to do maintenance in Australia, its just that (eventually) there won't be any Qantas aeroplanes, just Jetstar ones in Qantas livery!!!

All their assurances are just as obviously dodgy as this example.

[max autobrakes]

Have a look at the forign ownership caps.
Then have a look at the voting power some of those forign owners have.
Thats right their voting power, in a lot of instances, is well in excess of their ownership percentage.
This wouldn't be to get around the Qantas Sales Act would it?
I smell a rat and the stench is eminating from Dixon's office.

[HANOI]

Sunfish

at the same time Qantas must maintain it's monopoly on capacity

Where does Qantas have this " monopoly " on capacity.
You have been asked this question many times but never come up with an answer.

[Sunfish]

It means Hanoi, that when other airlines ask for rights to fly into places like Melbourne, Qantas lobbies the government to reject their applications. Meanwhile the direct flights by Qantas and others into and out of said city are full to bursting and there is no spare capacity.

[HANOI]

the direct flights by Qantas and others into and out of said city

So Qantas does not have a monopoly then ?.

[speeeedy]

I agree:

"a few more years."

and thats it.

[Sunfish]

To those who try and categorise me as some left wing nut with an axe to grind for Qantas, I'm not the only one concerned about Qantas, its service levels and future - and having dealt with Mac bank in some interestiing "commerical" transactions (about $60 million worth), I don't believe you can trust a single word they say:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...29-643,00.html

ONE of Australia's most respected fund managers, Kerr Neilson, has urged the federal Government to allow Singapore Airlines to fly on the Pacific route if Airline Partners Australia is allowed to buy Qantas.

Mr Neilson said it was time that the Australian Government opened up the Pacific route to the US to new carriers, including Singapore Airlines.
"You can never get a seat," he said. "It is not consumer friendly. It's not in keeping with a deregulated economy."

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com....stellos_wing//

Here is a little selection of what a few other people think:

If Costello values his political career at all, then, he will find a way to block, frustrate and prevent the privatisation of Qantas, a strategic Australian public company.
Qantas is profitable (and potentially even more profitable) due to the granting by the Government of Australia, representing its peoples, of the rights to fly certain international routes.

For more good reasons why Qantas should not be allowed to be taken over by Macquarie Bank and their international consortium partners including Jerry Schwartz and his Canadian Onex Corporation, I encourage you to reveiw the involvement of Onex in the Canadian airline industry a few years ago at the time that Canadian Airlines was searching for equity/ a new owner and Air Canada was bankrupt. Schwartz’s play was a bold faced attempt to screw the airlines for a fast buck, irrespective of the consequences.
Australia and Australians will regret the day that Qantas falls under the control of these predators.
Al Gill
Edmonton Canada

onsumers certainly don’t get the best deal at the moment - air fares are considerably more expensive in Australia than comparable countries overseas. One of the main reasons for this is a lack of competion - itself in no small part due to the privileges Qantas enjoys from protectionist Government policy. Costello’s “review” will, I fear, lead to restrictions on Qantas which in turn will give Qantas more reasons to ask for market restrictions that favour them.
Higher fares in turn don’t serve Australia’s economy well - tourism being an obvious sufferer.

The reality is that the government has already sold us down the road. How so ? by protecting Qantas on the USA route which costs me more money to fly there than I would otherwise and by the appalling Macquarie ownership of Sydney.

Many people seem to think that Qantas is a special case, and it certainly gets very special treatment from the government, but why should this be so? It is just another airline, albeit an “Australian” one. For the sake of maintaining 37,000 jobs in Australia, should everyone else have to pay higher fares to fly to other parts of the world?, because that is happening now. This is just a hangover from the days before the Keating reforms which saw the tarriff barriers slashed - and our economy has hardly looked back since, making everyone wealthier.

[Mud Skipper]

Clearance & Push Back Sunfish

Sunfish,

You should try and get an airways clearance and pushback out of Singapore. Somehow, 95% of the time, we seem to be after SIA and at the less preferred level, no doubt just coincidence though as their government would never play favours, ever, never ever ever, ever.....

[The_Cutest_of_Borg]

Very fair and balanced post there Sunfish.........NOT.

Your cut and paste skills are good but very selective. You neglected to paste this little gem from the bottom of that article... vis:

However, as a major shareholder with $180 million in Singapore Airlines, Mr Neilson said he was "delighted" with the proposed takeover, as he felt it would benefit SIA.

"We own (shares in) Singapore Airlines and we are delighted at this takeover," he said. "We think it puts more and more opportunity in the way of Singapore."


I think that effectively puts anything Mr Neilson would say squarely in the arena of rampant self-interest.

[lowerlobe]

Sunfish,

I’ll play this your way for once…definition of monopoly….

”A company or group having exclusive control over a commodity or service”

So as Hanoi has said Qantas according to Gilligan is the only airline to fly in and out of Australia because as the definition states …to have a monopoly a company must have “EXCLUSIVE” control over a service.

Now anyone who has an MBA and belongs to a Yacht club will tell you that exclusive means you are the only one. To put this in a way that a squid would understand..If someone was to have exclusive salvage rights to a shipwreck then you are the only one permitted to salvage items from that wreck..

Gilligan…EXCLUSIVE...

“Restricted or limited to the person, group, or area concerned”
That means in the context of aviation that apparently Qantas is the only airline permitted to fly into and out of Australia.

GILLIGAN..what are all those other aircraft sitting at our airports doing?
So as per usual Gilligan is trying to pull another one just as he tries to quote from someone who is completely impartial in this debate .

However as Cutest of Borg has pointed out Gilligans source is a stakeholder in SIA.SIA by the way is one of those dastardly airlines mentioned in the price fixing for cargo rates that Gilligan has tried to show only involves QF.

This all leads me to the inescapable conclusion that Sunfish…aka Gilligan is none other than Lee Kuan Yew.

Well if we have to read the absurd and completely delusional theories of Sunfish then I can accuse Gilligan of being a plant of the Singapore Government.

[Sunfish]

Cutest, yes, you caught me. I did it on purpose to see if anyone would read the article.

As for the others regarding monopoly. Qantas is the dog in the manger and the only reason other airlines can't get into Australia. You know exactly what I mean.

[noip]

Sunfish

"xxxxxx is the dog in the manger, and the only reason other airlines cant get into xxxxxxx"

Pick an airline, pick a country....... Your complaint is erroneous and untrue, in that it implies this is purely a QF manipulation of the market.

You really do need to learn about Bilateral Aviation Agreements - but what the hell, whoever would want to let the facts get in the way of a good story?

N

[HANOI]

Qantas.....is the only reason other airlines can't get into Australia

What other airlines can't get into Australia ?.

[roamingwolf]

Boys and Girls

WHO is the bigger IDIOT ?

The Idiot

or

Those who argue with the IDIOT

[Fliegenmong]

If you took all the worlds village idiots and gave them their own village then who would be that villages idiot?

[noip]

RW,

I understand the sentiment, however if we allow delusional opinions to be propogated unchallenged, then we risk the acceptance of them as fact.

Not good.


N


"the more I drink, the more sufistucated I becum"

[roamingwolf]

noip,

fair enough mate .I wonder where this is going because he is like a drunk that will not leave you alone and I reckon the his lift does not go to the top floor if you know what i mean.