The coming decline of Aviation
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Summer
Posts: 54
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by ****su_Tonka
When I started researching this, one of the solutions I read about to overcome our human condition in failing to act (denial), was to actually get out there and burn up this stuff as fast as we can, and get rid of it as fast as possible to force our hand.
Curiously, it seems many of us are doing just that anyway.
Curiously, it seems many of us are doing just that anyway.
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Far East of Mexico
Posts: 91
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
CaptR
Bob each way!
Been thinking like you for many years now.
Bought the block in Qld, studied permaculture, got the veggie patch going, 2 growing seasons per year, small orchard, little creek, dam, close to the sea with a tinney for the fish!
Can feed the family when we get home from the sandpit via the yacht!
good luck all
Armagedon approaches
Bob each way!
Been thinking like you for many years now.
Bought the block in Qld, studied permaculture, got the veggie patch going, 2 growing seasons per year, small orchard, little creek, dam, close to the sea with a tinney for the fish!
Can feed the family when we get home from the sandpit via the yacht!
good luck all
Armagedon approaches
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It appears there are already implementations in place to help reduce the reliance on oil. It may take some time to fully make the most of this new technology, but it is a start?
“Transperth (public transport) now has three hydrogen fuel cell EcoBuses in its fleet as part of a world wide trial. The hydrogen used in EcoBuses is produced by the BP Oil Refinery. The fuel cell buses use hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity through an electro-chemical process. The by-products of this chemical reaction are pure water vapour and heat, resulting in no pollution. So if you see them on the road in Perth, that's steam coming from the rear exhaust, not fumes! The hydrogen fuel cell buses will be operated and maintained by Path Transit over the two year trial period. The EcoBus project is part of the Western Australian Government’s internationally recognised work in ensuring sustainable transport energy for Western Australia.”
“Iceland has committed to becoming the world's first hydrogen economy by the year 2050.”
“Ethanol use and production in the United States is steadily increasing. As gasoline prices continue to increase, ethanol may become a more profitable alternative to gasoline. Roughly 685 gas stations, out of a total of 165,000 carry E85 pumps. Ethanol is predominantly only available in the Midwest and California, where most ethanol is refined. As of 19 June 2006 in the US, there are 4.8 billion gallons (18.17 million m³) per year capacity for ethanol production with capacity of 2.22 billion gallons (8.4 million m³) per year under construction. For example, the U.S. company Pacific Ethanol is currently building more ethanol facilities in the western U.S.”
Work on alternative fuelling for commercial aircraft has stopped and started over the years. These may not have been for oil depletion purposes but wouldn’t this reason prompt companies to research more effectively now?
http://www.waterstof.info/SavedPages/AirbusCryoPlane.pdf
http://www.h2mobility.org
I also understand that the examples above are a grain of sand on a beach with this condition as oils have everything to do with everything. Changes in our oil reliance should act faster. The examples above are great steps forward, at least research and changes have begun. If a situation of a global recession and ‘Armagedon’ approaches in the years to come as prophesied by some, I think the decline of aviation will be the least of our worries. No industry or person is safe.
CaptR, your posts have no doubt opened our eyes to this looming situation. I cannot fathom government powers not acting on this situation now there is a ‘hype’ about it. Some say we have oil reserves some say not. Some say we will act in time some say not.
CaptR, be careful on your acreage…
“Should you be getting a gun and hiding in the woods? If a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation appeals to you, I encourage you read as much as possible about other civilizations that have crashed and burned. While the survivalist model works in Hollywood, it often fails in reality. When our society collapses, the rural areas may well go first. In that case, little enclaves of survivalists sitting on stockpiles of food and weapons will be too tempting a target for the bandit cultures that evolve in post collapse rural areas.”
“Transperth (public transport) now has three hydrogen fuel cell EcoBuses in its fleet as part of a world wide trial. The hydrogen used in EcoBuses is produced by the BP Oil Refinery. The fuel cell buses use hydrogen and oxygen to create electricity through an electro-chemical process. The by-products of this chemical reaction are pure water vapour and heat, resulting in no pollution. So if you see them on the road in Perth, that's steam coming from the rear exhaust, not fumes! The hydrogen fuel cell buses will be operated and maintained by Path Transit over the two year trial period. The EcoBus project is part of the Western Australian Government’s internationally recognised work in ensuring sustainable transport energy for Western Australia.”
“Iceland has committed to becoming the world's first hydrogen economy by the year 2050.”
“Ethanol use and production in the United States is steadily increasing. As gasoline prices continue to increase, ethanol may become a more profitable alternative to gasoline. Roughly 685 gas stations, out of a total of 165,000 carry E85 pumps. Ethanol is predominantly only available in the Midwest and California, where most ethanol is refined. As of 19 June 2006 in the US, there are 4.8 billion gallons (18.17 million m³) per year capacity for ethanol production with capacity of 2.22 billion gallons (8.4 million m³) per year under construction. For example, the U.S. company Pacific Ethanol is currently building more ethanol facilities in the western U.S.”
Work on alternative fuelling for commercial aircraft has stopped and started over the years. These may not have been for oil depletion purposes but wouldn’t this reason prompt companies to research more effectively now?
http://www.waterstof.info/SavedPages/AirbusCryoPlane.pdf
http://www.h2mobility.org
I also understand that the examples above are a grain of sand on a beach with this condition as oils have everything to do with everything. Changes in our oil reliance should act faster. The examples above are great steps forward, at least research and changes have begun. If a situation of a global recession and ‘Armagedon’ approaches in the years to come as prophesied by some, I think the decline of aviation will be the least of our worries. No industry or person is safe.
CaptR, your posts have no doubt opened our eyes to this looming situation. I cannot fathom government powers not acting on this situation now there is a ‘hype’ about it. Some say we have oil reserves some say not. Some say we will act in time some say not.
CaptR, be careful on your acreage…
“Should you be getting a gun and hiding in the woods? If a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation appeals to you, I encourage you read as much as possible about other civilizations that have crashed and burned. While the survivalist model works in Hollywood, it often fails in reality. When our society collapses, the rural areas may well go first. In that case, little enclaves of survivalists sitting on stockpiles of food and weapons will be too tempting a target for the bandit cultures that evolve in post collapse rural areas.”
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Australia
Posts: 158
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The 4corners program is avalable for viewing online.
Here's the link for all interested
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
Here's the link for all interested
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't see Govt doing anything major at least prior to the senate report late Oct this year............and even then it will be incremental at best knowing this Govt.
In regards to my acreage….....I have no interest in a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation - I prefer the informed community concepts myself........as I feel from my research that it is a more localised rather than globalised economy and community that will come out on tops with peak oil.......
Here's to keeping a weather eye on the issue and being prepared.....the risk of not being prepared is to costly
Cheers
Capt R
In regards to my acreage….....I have no interest in a "hole- up-in-the-woods-with-guns" model of preparation - I prefer the informed community concepts myself........as I feel from my research that it is a more localised rather than globalised economy and community that will come out on tops with peak oil.......
Here's to keeping a weather eye on the issue and being prepared.....the risk of not being prepared is to costly
Cheers
Capt R
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: out of a suitcase
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
CaptR,
You are soooooo SPOT ON and are not alone. Just last week I've committed to a large property on a beautiful stretch of coast (of the type to envision), for exactly the reasons you state. And I feel very, very comfortable with the pending lifestyle change and mammoth paradigm shift in my life.
Watch out, everyone, for the US economy is failing and will snap in the VERY near future, with planetary economic implications. PLEASE listen to CaptR's words of wisdom.
There are more of us out there of like-mind in this than you know, and who are actually doing something practical and natural about preserving our future happiness and sustainability. As sure as hell, that future AIN'T in the airline industry any more !! Please research all you can, make up your own minds, and start planning. But, please, don't put it off. The consequences of delay are not worth thinking about. Those who have done the legwork know there's not much time left.
You are soooooo SPOT ON and are not alone. Just last week I've committed to a large property on a beautiful stretch of coast (of the type to envision), for exactly the reasons you state. And I feel very, very comfortable with the pending lifestyle change and mammoth paradigm shift in my life.
Watch out, everyone, for the US economy is failing and will snap in the VERY near future, with planetary economic implications. PLEASE listen to CaptR's words of wisdom.
There are more of us out there of like-mind in this than you know, and who are actually doing something practical and natural about preserving our future happiness and sustainability. As sure as hell, that future AIN'T in the airline industry any more !! Please research all you can, make up your own minds, and start planning. But, please, don't put it off. The consequences of delay are not worth thinking about. Those who have done the legwork know there's not much time left.
Silly Old Git
In OZ it can go more down the ****ter than it is?
Enui have you studied the Neaderthals that populate QSLD?
You better learn how to fight.
Bought the block in Qld, studied permaculture, got the veggie patch going,
You better learn how to fight.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Straya
Posts: 537
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Amazing reading some of the comments on the 4C forum, that there are still people out there who say the government should do something about it!
Well they are - they have just wasted an entire week deciding who told fibs and who didn't - fiddling while Rome burns as they say. Our media, equal to the task, have spent a week running around following them asking banal questions, analysing nuances and interviewing other media about how they interpreted the nuances.
And people still look to the government for ideas? Jesus wept.
When will people realise that life goes on despite the our political process - not because of it.
Well they are - they have just wasted an entire week deciding who told fibs and who didn't - fiddling while Rome burns as they say. Our media, equal to the task, have spent a week running around following them asking banal questions, analysing nuances and interviewing other media about how they interpreted the nuances.
And people still look to the government for ideas? Jesus wept.
When will people realise that life goes on despite the our political process - not because of it.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Springfield
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Four Corners did a comprehensive analysis of the problem and implications, but seemed to skirt around the local political position. Yes our governement is avoiding the issue, on a typical term-to-short-term basis. And our opposition parties? Forget the greens, they can't govern. And the ALP? Taking a stand on IR (thank god) seems to be all the press Kim gets. Yet surprisingly for me at least, there is a long term policy on their site.
http://www.alp.org.au/download/now/0...l_industry.pdf
http://www.alp.org.au/download/now/0...l_industry.pdf
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Alice Springs
Posts: 1,744
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We did it!
If we want to see how to live using very little petrol, we just have to look at how our grandparents lived. Previous generations were able to live using only a few litres of petroleum products each month. It's possible, and healthier.
There are other ways too. If you look at Paris, you find that many people live in the centre of the city, and have food supplies in the same block. They do not have the mad scramble, sitting in cars burning petrol and polluting, twice a day like we do, to get to our homes. Some australian commuters travel huge distances every day.
The hybrids must become common. But let's think further. Thousands of australian cars are driven about 10km to work every morning, parked in the sun for eight hours and driven home again every day. Many,many kilowatts of solar energy heat those cars every day, and we use fossil fuels to cool them.
Why aren't they hybrids, with solar cells, and good insulation in the roof, so we can capture this energy???.
Much of what we do is unsustainable.
There are other ways too. If you look at Paris, you find that many people live in the centre of the city, and have food supplies in the same block. They do not have the mad scramble, sitting in cars burning petrol and polluting, twice a day like we do, to get to our homes. Some australian commuters travel huge distances every day.
The hybrids must become common. But let's think further. Thousands of australian cars are driven about 10km to work every morning, parked in the sun for eight hours and driven home again every day. Many,many kilowatts of solar energy heat those cars every day, and we use fossil fuels to cool them.
Why aren't they hybrids, with solar cells, and good insulation in the roof, so we can capture this energy???.
Much of what we do is unsustainable.
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Sale, Australia
Age: 80
Posts: 3,832
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
See www.peakoil.net for opinions of some you would expect to have an insight.
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 103
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
hmmmm lets see......North Korean launching missiles into the Sea of Japan and swapping nuclear technology with Iran....Iraq....Somalia....Israel and Palestine.....George W......Terrorist bombs in India....Afghanistan......Russia v Checneya.....Bird flu....trees growing in antartica.....Putain Dictator of Russia....The Tora Bora Mad man....black market in nuclear materials.....etc etc. We will be LUCKY to run out of oil before we all kill each other.
Join Date: Jun 1999
Posts: 455
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It is generally agreed that hubbards peak is closer to reality than our so called leaders would have you believe, for obvious reasons.
Alternatives will be sought and found, as someone pointed out, necessity is the mother of all invention.
BUT be assured, it is a serious issue and unfortunately we are just seeing the beginning of the oil wars. I would suggest that nearly all geo political strategizing being undertaken by the worlds key global players centres around accessing oil and gas, influencing the sale and pricing of oil, controlling the distribution of oil and the using the flow of oil and gas as an instrument of control.
Every Government has a stake in the oil wars in every region of the world. Conflict in Timor, Iraq, Afghanistan, Colombia and Somalia. Possible future conflict in Iran, Syria, KSR, North Korea and the Caspian region. Even past conflict such as Eastern Europe in the ninties. From full scale conflict in the Middle East “rose revolution’s” in Georgia, it all comes back to oil.
The biggest emerging conflict over energy will obviously be china. The US is throwing all of its effort behind using access to oil as a means of controlling Chinese expansion and its threat to global greenback hegemony. He who controls the spigot, controls he who needs the oil.
Alternatives will be sought and found, as someone pointed out, necessity is the mother of all invention.
BUT be assured, it is a serious issue and unfortunately we are just seeing the beginning of the oil wars. I would suggest that nearly all geo political strategizing being undertaken by the worlds key global players centres around accessing oil and gas, influencing the sale and pricing of oil, controlling the distribution of oil and the using the flow of oil and gas as an instrument of control.
Every Government has a stake in the oil wars in every region of the world. Conflict in Timor, Iraq, Afghanistan, Colombia and Somalia. Possible future conflict in Iran, Syria, KSR, North Korea and the Caspian region. Even past conflict such as Eastern Europe in the ninties. From full scale conflict in the Middle East “rose revolution’s” in Georgia, it all comes back to oil.
The biggest emerging conflict over energy will obviously be china. The US is throwing all of its effort behind using access to oil as a means of controlling Chinese expansion and its threat to global greenback hegemony. He who controls the spigot, controls he who needs the oil.
oicur12
I’m sorry but you have been watching too many conspiracy theories. The reality is most wars over the past 100 years have been caused by religion and racial tensions, not oil. Even the current conflicts in the Middle East are the direct result of Muslim extremists and the Christian zealots of the extreme far right that exist in abundance in the southern USA.
Every Government has a stake in the oil wars in every region of the world. Conflict in Timor, Iraq, Afghanistan, Colombia and Somalia. Possible future conflict in Iran, Syria, KSR, North Korea and the Caspian region. Even past conflict such as Eastern Europe in the ninties. From full scale conflict in the Middle East “rose revolution’s” in Georgia, it all comes back to oil.
Duff Man
Yes and no. I agree the US government mislead the US people and to a lesser extent the rest of the world why they had to invade Iraq. The real reason was not because of weapons of mass destruction. Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future and won’t be a threat to Israel. The Jewish influence in US politics is very powerful and organised and shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve had a lot to do with what has happened over the last three years by garnering political support from the religious far right, Bush’s largest support group. By doing this it was hoped it would destabilise those countries that denounce Israel, the West and the US and constantly threaten to cut off oil supply, i.e. Iran. Recent events would suggest that this is starting to happen.
Civil wars tend to be a little different. What we now have in Iraq is essentially a civil war on religious factional grounds and the US and its allies are stuck in the middle. Religion has for the last 2000 years been by far the largest cause of wars on this planet. Humans by our very nature just like other primates are tribal and clan orientated. It is only natural for us to want to be the most powerful and dominant tribe or clan on the block. All we are seeing is this same thing but on a global scale.
Yes and no. I agree the US government mislead the US people and to a lesser extent the rest of the world why they had to invade Iraq. The real reason was not because of weapons of mass destruction. Nor was it to steal their oil as some conspiracy theorist would have you believe. It was a regime change pure and simple to create another US and Western ally in the region that will guarantee oil supply in the future and won’t be a threat to Israel. The Jewish influence in US politics is very powerful and organised and shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve had a lot to do with what has happened over the last three years by garnering political support from the religious far right, Bush’s largest support group. By doing this it was hoped it would destabilise those countries that denounce Israel, the West and the US and constantly threaten to cut off oil supply, i.e. Iran. Recent events would suggest that this is starting to happen.
Civil wars tend to be a little different. What we now have in Iraq is essentially a civil war on religious factional grounds and the US and its allies are stuck in the middle. Religion has for the last 2000 years been by far the largest cause of wars on this planet. Humans by our very nature just like other primates are tribal and clan orientated. It is only natural for us to want to be the most powerful and dominant tribe or clan on the block. All we are seeing is this same thing but on a global scale.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Military and Peak Oil
Regardless of the causes of wars, the issue remains re Peak Oil. For your interest one can review several sound and scientific studies in relation to peak oil in military circles. The most widely publicized is the September 2005 report prepared for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It states “The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years.”
The report depicts the likely shape of future geopolitics: “In conclusion, we are clearly entering a very different period for global energy markets and relations. We shall continue to face geopolitical risks and uncertainties and concerns around energy security will continue to rise. Petroleum will remain the most strategic and political energy commodity with natural gas running a close second. .…The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia….Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”
There are numerous other good articles published by Govt Departments similiar to the one above.
Happy research
CaptR
The report depicts the likely shape of future geopolitics: “In conclusion, we are clearly entering a very different period for global energy markets and relations. We shall continue to face geopolitical risks and uncertainties and concerns around energy security will continue to rise. Petroleum will remain the most strategic and political energy commodity with natural gas running a close second. .…The roles of leading actors in the global energy system will also change as the center of gravity for oil production shifts back towards the Middle East and Central Asia….Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”
There are numerous other good articles published by Govt Departments similiar to the one above.
Happy research
CaptR