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Qantas shares lose 25% this year

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Old 21st Jun 2006, 06:30
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Qantas shares lose 25% this year

Wed Bloomberg

Qantas 2nd-Half Profit to Fall 55% on Fuel, Job Cuts

June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, said second-half earnings will slump about 55 percent because of record fuel prices and charges to fire workers. Its shares fell to the lowest in more than three years.

Profit before tax will be about A$186.5 million ($138 million) for the six months ending June 30, down from A$413.7 million a year earlier, the Sydney-based carrier forecast today.

Chief Executive Officer Geoff Dixon, 66, said he may have to cut more jobs than planned if jet fuel prices hold their 21 percent gain this fiscal year, eroding profits. He's already firing workers, reducing agent commissions, switching to more fuel-efficient planes and using the discount carrier Jetstar on low-profit routes to cut A$3 billion from costs over five years.

``Qantas is a terrific company with one big flaw -- oil prices,'' said Jason Teh, who manages $4 billion at Investors Mutual in Sydney. ``If it wasn't for that, their earnings would be doing fine and the shares would be a lot better value.''

Shares of Qantas fell 16 cents, or 5 percent, to A$3.02 at 3:00 p.m. in Sydney, the lowest since April 28, 2003. They have dropped 25 percent this year, making Qantas is the third-worst performer on the 30-member Bloomberg World Airlines Index, behind SAS AB and Jet Airways India Ltd.

Airlines worldwide may post losses of $3 billion in 2006, 36 percent more than forecast in March, as oil prices rise, the International Air Transport Association said earlier this month. The industry lost $43.6 billion from 2001 through 2005.

Long-Haul Costs

Qantas's full-year pretax profit will be around A$670 million, at the low end of analyst estimates ranging as high as A$895 million, the company said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange today.

Fuel on average accounts for 40 percent of costs of long- haul flights such as Qantas's connections to Europe, twice as much as seven years ago, said Andrew Miller, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation in Sydney.

The price of jet kerosene has increased 21 percent in the last year to trade at $83.91 a barrel yesterday in Singapore, according to the Platts pricing service. It surged to a record $90.05 a barrel on May 3.

``Qantas is a hostage to moving fuel prices,'' said Chad Slater, who helps manage the equivalent of $7.4 billion in Australian equities at BT Financial Group in Sydney. ``It's got to keep its focus on cost cutting and I'd expect to see them increase fuel surcharges across the board this year.''

Fuel Surcharges

Qantas has steadily raised its fuel surcharges, saying April 26 it would increase the fee by 16 percent to A$31 on domestic flights in Australia and New Zealand and by 23 percent to A$98 on international flights.

Dixon said his full-year profit estimate ``has been reinforced by a A$1 billion increase in fuel costs for 2005-06 after hedging, a significant amount of which will not be recovered by surcharges.'' The company paid A$1.9 billion for fuel last year.

Fuel accounted for 21 percent of the company's costs in the first half. Labor is its most expensive charge.

Today's earnings forecast also includes about A$153 million in restructuring costs, including payouts to fired workers.

Qantas spent A$46.7 million on redundancy payouts in the first half. The carrier plans to cut 1,000 management and administration jobs by the end of 2006. It has eliminated 340 engineering jobs in Sydney since March, spokesman Simon Rushton said. Qantas employed 35,158 people at the end of 2005.

Dixon said earnings will also be lower because he decided to keep the airline's catering unit after receiving sale offers that were too low. Expected proceeds from the sale had been included in the company's previous profit expectations, he said.

Qantas will restructure the unit at its two Sydney facilities, with one to focus on catering for Qantas and the other to serve client airlines. Qantas may cut as many as 30 jobs in the process, which is aimed at boosting the unit's forecast earnings by 45 percent.

====================================================



To contact the reporter on this story:
Miriam Steffens in Sydney at [email protected]
Wirraway is offline  
Old 21st Jun 2006, 07:23
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Increase Prices

Why the hell dont these idiots just put up the prices to cover the increase in costs?.
BA did it and have had a corresponding increase in revenue and profit
Dixon may find that a few competitors may even follow suit.
Who`s a softcock now?......King Rat(Dixon)
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 07:23
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he may have to cut more jobs than planned if jet fuel prices hold their 21 percent gain this fiscal year, eroding profits.
so by this logic, the higher oil goes, the more staff goes? so how high does oil have to go before he starts sacking managers and essential staff???


the Share price is low, not because of High oil prices, but because the market can see straight through dixons smoke and lies, and the market knows exactly how the company is being run (down)
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 08:00
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So why does a return ticket to London cost the same today as it did nearly 10 years ago (you can still get tickets for under $2000) when the cost of operating there and back has risen so much? Ten years ago the fuel was a lot cheaper.

Put the prices up dickheads.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 08:09
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Now if i was running a company that was going down hill fast i would look to the top... maybe it GOD's turn to go....
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 09:17
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Theres an old saying when it comes to a companies share price and that is:

"The market never lies"

Time to go Dicko, the fatman and $2800 per day Ian Oldmeadow.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 10:03
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Cool

O**mea*ow's wife has 2 assholes and he's one of em
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 11:07
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OL**ad*w

How how about calling him PANTYHOSE.
Closest thing to a C**T
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 12:25
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GD is just softening everybody up for his next objective. Once current EBA's expire he will bring in AWA's with pay cuts and transmission of business clauses for everyone citing operational requirements.

The story will go something like this:

Here you go guys. You now have to work for X% less and and you are now being spun off into "No Tangible Asset Shelf Company". Redundancy entitlements are fully guaranteed by "No Tangible Asset Shelf Company".If you don't like it then you can leave but there will be pay out since we're guaranteeing you a job and redundancy entitlements(yeah right!).

Sorry to have to do this to everyone but haven't you seen our latest profit forecast!!!!- it's simply due to operational requirements and is completely legal.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 12:40
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Quote - " due to operational requirements and is completely legal."

------------

Yes, but ONLY since the introduction of fascist johnny's "work no choices" legislation.

Ready, set, go !!!!

The wages race to the bottom begins................
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 12:58
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9/11 = doom and gloom = staff reductions to maintain profits
SARS = doom and gloom = staff reductions to maintain profits
Fuel prices = doom and gloom = staff reductions to maintain profits

What's next? Dicko has nothing up his sleve to justify his relentless attack on staff this time, so......

....looks like they have finally decided to "cook the books" the opposite way this time. Therefore....

....27% downturn in profit = doom and gloom = staff reductions to restore profits!

(oh, will it restore profits right away?? let's remember also that staff reductions = redundancy payouts = less profit!..... a "good" reason to justify screwing those who stay on)

Qantas needs fresh management with fresh ideas. Continually sacking those that make the company what it is, can only go on for so long. I am sure that staff in all departments see blatant inefficiency on a daily basis. I have seen it for all my 10+ years in Qantas. We complain, we make suggestions. We even offer to help rectify inefficiencies. Nothing changes. Staff have no say. Pig headed managers won't listen.

Dicko, give up. Get out of the chair. Get out of the polished timber, plush carpeted opulent office that you occupy. "Time to go Dicko"
 
Old 21st Jun 2006, 12:59
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Investment analyst opinion = horse****.

One looks to sustainable competitive advantage.

Frecklepunchers in Oxford Street are not sustainable competive advantage.

I know of no one who will fly QF by choice. Sorry.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 13:08
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Sunfish...Anti

Dear oh dear sunfish we all knew you were anti .QF....but now we see you as a homphobe as well.
Shame on you!!!
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 14:12
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I know of no one who will fly QF by choice.
Sadly im heraring this more and more frequently from the general public....


the fats been cut, now the muscle, dixon will soon cut right through the bone..

with record profits only achieved through staff cutting, it was only a matter of time before there can be no more profit squeezed out of cost cutting, and the profit slide begins. now what has he done to increase revenues? improved the service levels?
Improved the Qantas brand and image?

set up other airlines to sell tickets at the cheapest rates possible? isnt rule No1 of business to sell your product at the Highest price you can get for it?
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 16:04
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Qantas flags more cost cuts

Thurs "Sydney Morning Herald"

Qantas flags more cost cuts

Workers put on notice … analysts expect more lay-offs and further cuts in overtime pay.
Scott Rochfort
June 22, 2006

QANTAS plans to hack even further into its cost base after slashing forecast earnings by 25 per cent as surging oil prices continue to play havoc with the airline industry.

The national carrier has put its 37,000 workforce on notice, warning that unless fuel prices ease further sacrifices will have to be made on top of the airline's $3 billion five-year cost-cutting program.

In recent weeks Qantas has issued about 2000 redundancy slips. The airline's warning of further cost cutting came after it forecast a 25 per cent slump in full-year pre-tax profits to around $670 million.

Qantas said this was at the lower end of analyst forecasts, some of which were as high as $895 million.

Qantas said the profit slump would include $153 million in restructuring costs, some of which stemmed from the airline's recent closure of its heavy maintenance base in Sydney.

Qantas said costs resulting from the recent retrenchment of 1000 management staff would be factored into next year's result.

Chief executive Geoff Dixon said in a media statement the airline's already ambitious program to slash $3 billion in annual costs by mid-2008 may not be enough and "further restructuring will be required" if oil prices remained high.

Qantas shares slumped to a three-year low of $2.99 before closing 15c down at $3.03, having dropped 29 per cent since early February.

The downgrade fuelled pessimism for Qantas's profit outlook for the next financial year. Macquarie Bank analyst Paul Huxford warned "the market continues to have unrealistic earnings expectations with respect to 2006-07".

Qantas chief financial officer Peter Gregg declined to elaborate on areas targeted for cost cuts.

Given the airline's $3.2 billion a year staff bill - its biggest cost component - analysts expect more lay-offs and further cuts in overtime pay.

Unions fear Qantas will focus on hiring cheaper staff through its low-cost subsidiary Jetstar.

Mr Gregg told the Herald Qantas "was treading water", given the $1.5 billion in cost cuts already achieved through the so-called "sustainable future" program had been wiped out by recent fuel price increases.

"This is a business that has faced fuel bill rises of $2 billion in two years," Mr Gregg said. "I'd dare you to [find] a company in Australia that has that problem. We're going to look for efficiencies and we don't take any joy in removing people from jobs."

Since the launch of "sustainable future" during the SARS crisis in 2003, Qantas has raised its cost-cutting targets on three occasions.

Mr Gregg said he had "no idea" about speculation that Qantas's full-service operations may soon lease aircraft and crews from its low-cost Jetstar subsidiary.

There is speculation the airline may lease Boeing 787s from Jetstar when the new jets are delivered from 2008, in an attempt to drive down labour costs.

"Realistically Qantas will do what it needs to do to continue to operate," Mr Gregg said. "Whether or not Jetstar provides wet-leasing capacity to Qantas, I think that would be some time away."

Qantas's full-year profit is also going to be marred by the continuing poor performance of its 44.5 per cent-owned Singapore subsidiary Orangestar, which operates Jetstar Asia and Valuair.

Mr Gregg said the airline, which reported a first-half $27 million loss, was "stabilising".

=====================================================
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 21:54
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I guess my best hope is that Mr. Dixon stays until the damage is complete, then perhaps some other company can buy them out and start running them as a national airline.

By the way, I'm taking my life in my hands and flying QF next month to actually use some frequent flyer points. I'm taking a six am flight to connect with air new guinea in Brisbane. Frankly, I think I'm making a mistake. VB have always been on time with no delays. I guess I'm just curious to see if the standard of QF have dropped any lower than my previous unremarkable business class flight to the States.

P.S. Surfside, I'm not anti gay, its just that the QF brand seem to be the mincing prima donna variety these days, they seem to spend their time with the girls bitching about the company, their suntans and theri boyfriends instead of serving the paying customer.

As I've said before, there was a time when Australians were proud of Qantas, not any more.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 22:45
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Danger

Sunfish wrote:
By the way, I'm taking my life in my hands and flying QF next month to actually use some frequent flyer points. I'm taking a six am flight to connect with air new guinea in Brisbane. Frankly, I think I'm making a mistake.
Please explain why you're taking your life in your hands? On the other hand:
It is better to say nothing and appear stupid, than to speak and remove all doubt !

Last edited by Doctor Smith; 21st Jun 2006 at 23:12.
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 23:30
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Fuel prices, the root of all woe!

The problem Qantas has is the CEO is incapable of dealing with competition and of making hard decisions!

Every airline in the world, indeed every individual in the world, is confronting the rising oil price issues.

It is not a new problem. It is not like SARS or 9/11. It is not a random event. My barber and taxidriver can both provide excellent assessments of the likely fuel price movement and have done so for the past 15 months. It is not a new problem.

Qantas, via Peter Grigg, have employed a number of economists and strategists over the past 3 years. Questions must be asked as to their competence, or, if they are as brilliant as we are led to believe, why Dixon and his Exco have failed to listen to their advice.

I have put a number of post up regarding the need for QF to cut cost. The sustainable futures program is rubbish. It is about double dipping. I know because of my involvement! Managers that keep saying, 'you don't know what you are talking about, we are are all under pressure all the time' should pack up and leave.

If, and believe me it is becoming an even bigger if, QF is going to survive, Dixon must be replaced. He is not the individual to lead action when there is competition. He cannot go to Canberra and demand other carriers cease flying to Australia. This time action is required.

The workforce has to be cut by at least 15%

Oldmeadow, his wife and hangerons (all on over $2,500) per day have to be questions for relevance.

BCG at over $25million per annum for the past 8 years has to be questioned

The capability of the Exco has to be questioned.

These must be no doubt it is dire times. These times have been created, not by "softcock pilots" or "Frecklepunchers in Oxford Street" and "greedy unrealistic greasemonkeys", no, the problems have been created by a executive management team that is incapable of operating in the real world.

Rod Eddington did the job at BA. Why because he got on with the job and didn't blame everyone else for the company woes.

It is time for Dixon, Gregg and the other Exco goodtime boys to be removed.

I agree with posts by Ken Nuff. If we, the staff, unite and demand their removal, someone, the shareholders, will have to listen.

If they don't, they should look forward to a shareprice around $2.85 by September!!!
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Old 21st Jun 2006, 23:44
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Thank you Lagrange.

Like so many other long serving QF employees, I want to see our company succeed.

I do not have any confidence in Geoff Dixon to take us forward.

We have to get our act together very quickly.

In my opinion, Dixon and Jackson both need replacing. This can only be achieved if we UNITE (and that is a shout)
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Old 22nd Jun 2006, 00:17
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Having checked the Graph representing the Qantas share prices over the last 12 months, it looks like the downhill ski run at the winter olympics. And thats just since April.

Its about time the Board took stock of where Dixon and Co are taking this airline and acted.

Fuel price increases are a problem for every airline, not just qantas. Its what you do about it that counts. This bloke got by on a lot of luck in the early part of his tenure. The luck has run out and now the times require managment skills.
 


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