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Old 7th Feb 2005, 00:00
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Angry

LCC's like Australian and both Jetstars have their bottom lines propped up by more than flawed transfer pricing from their parent. How much do they collect by way of subsidy or straight-out grant by desparate airport owners and authorities happy to have them 'serve' (term used very loosely) their airports?

There is a bidding war in Asia, esp. between the Malaysians and the Singaporeans - were Australian and JetStar Asia beneficiaries of handouts by using Changi? What loot was handed over to lure Australian to base itself in Cairns, or to venture to Sabah? Has Dixon found another revenue stream not available to Qantas mainline? What happens when the gravy train stops?
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 01:00
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From my experience in both aviation, corporate world, government etc, strategy is often the last thing the workers know about.
(TurbineDreamer, this thread, 5 Feb)

Not sure how much corporate experience you've had, but mine tells me that the truly great companies (not just good companies) make it their business to ensure all the key employees - usually everyone - know what the strategy is.

One of the simplest ways of doing this is to tell them in briefing meetings and with a simple drawing called a Strategy Map.

Having said that... If the definition of a great company is one using Strategy Maps - there are not very many GREAT companies.

Pity, because these tools are out there in the public arena, don't require huge expenditure to implement, and actually make the manager's job easier.

Part of the problem is that to get the company strategy so clearly thought through that it can be portrayed as a simple diagram - or set of diagrams - the management has to think really hard about the business and what is important.

Maybe that's the barrier.

You'd think though, a company trying to make a buck in a highly competitive environment would have a sufficiently clear idea about its strategy to be able to draw up a simple strategy map, wouldn't you?

Not having one is about as useful as approach plates left back in the car, fuel reserves left in the truck, runway behind you and altitude above you.

Ah well... She'll be right...

VHCU
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 01:09
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Exactly B A Lert. Its called putting all your eggs in one basket.

My uninformed and totally speculative thought is that QFf seems to voting with its cheque book for its Sydney hubbing and spoke model with the large A380.

Boeing is apparently going the other way - building an aircraft that can operate profitably on city to city pairs and stay clear of hubs.

To this idiot that seems a more attractive solution. It is a pain in the **** flying into or out of Sydney either domestically or internationally because there are always delays for one reason or another all apparently related to congestion and curfews.

I guess it is worse in the U.S. remembering the delays right across the U.S. when Chicago was closed by a series of thunderstorms one summers day.

Maybe the hub and spoke business model has seen its best days? If it has, then Qantas are going to be very hard hit.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 07:46
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On a different note, has anybody noticed a subtle change in the domestic inflight intertainment product recently. On a flight I was on a few weeks ago the passengers were treated to a highly entertaining documentary about wild life in Africa. And today, the program consisted entirely of continuous images from the Qantas "Sharing the spirit" advertisment. I suppose its just another area were some accountant believes they can save a few dollars.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 10:00
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So goes it

My sources tell me that the staff in Frankfurt have been given their marching orders.

Am waiting anxiously for the PBL assisted spin as to why this port couldn't make money!!

Go on Geoff show us the investment me and the other owners make in you, and prove to me why it dont work...
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 14:29
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But hang on, CM has just written a burst to us all, in it he considers two options: either shrinking and becoming just a regional player or expanding and growing...... He contends the second option is the way to go. So we cannot be pulling out of yet another European destination..... right? But then again, just how many different hands are tugging on the tiller of the good ship Qantas? Just what is the vision of this airline? Where is it now, where does it want to be, how will it get there? If there is such a vision then the vast majority at the coal-face have absolutely no idea what it is. One thing's for sure, if you don't know where you want to go, any road will take you there.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 19:12
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I hope I am wrong on this one I surely do...
I don't think CM can as a 'class of XX' and fully "institutionalised" member ACTUALLY have an independent thought, unless of course it is QF ordained. (I think I am being a little harsh, maybe he can count his bonus when he is alone)
(He once said he was finding it difficult to communicate with pilots, as they can't read n spell so well.) Given his clear superior intellect, maybe that's why he is just another political figurehead.


One need look no further than the management tree to see how far down the list he lives, as I said in the original post CASA would not allow this in a GA company!!!

Returning to the post, I hope some brokers/analysts have a read of this...Coz the truth about QF is that hidden in the numbers are some many little about the cost apportionment, that if the market understood the trades in company shares would head where the company is going...down

Cmon Geoff, you tell us we are valued, share your vision of the company, give us the real numbers and let us analyse them...

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Old 7th Feb 2005, 19:19
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Ron And Edna, DR. Sunfish believes the Chairman and the CEO are both sufferers of narcissistic personality disorder. They don't care for anyone but themselves and constantly filling their ever leaking self esteem buckets.

The most obvious symptom is a complete and total lack of empathy with anyone. They literally cannot empathise. To them we are no more than dogs that can talk and are treated accordingly. We will be used when it is convenient and discarded the minute the usefulness ceases or if we make trouble.

Often they will do things that are quite clever. They are intelligent and hard working, but the driving force is a personal demon. They are totally ruthless. They will lie, cheat, and steal because they have this sense of entitlement. Laws do not apply to them.

Any time a high profile person goes on trial for something and you find yourself asking "How could someone of such wealth and achievement do such a dumb thing?" you are probably looking at a narcissist, especially if they are known for grandstanding. Rene Rivkin is a classic, so is the guy who ran HIH (lavish entertainment). So is Martha Stewart (now in jail in the U.S. for insider trading) and the classic of them all was Leona Hemsley - "Only Little people pay taxes".

Two dead giveaways - Dixon appointing himself chairman of J* Asia (J* is a vehicle so GD could be a chairman of something, nothing more).

The second and most obvious was the $500 bottles of wine as Christmas presents for the selected few. That demonstrated a complete and total lack of empathy with staff who are being asked to cut costs - by Jackson for doing it, and by Dixon for letting her get away with it. The real purpose of the gift was to demonstrate Jackson's power and position as deputy chairman of Penfolds (Southcorp).

Dixon is oblivious to the fact that people are asking how the most profitable airline in the world is making its money and at the same time crying poor. He doesn't see any anomally because he cannot empathise.

Don't expect a coherent corporate strategy, there isn't one. The only strategies that count are the short term ego boosting ideas of the Chairman and CEO.

For what its worth, closing Frankfurt may simply be a one off accounting trick to boost next years profit.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 19:30
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The future

As Ron and Edna stated, there isnt a clear vision.

We don't have a defendable market advantage, it has been given away. I am reluctant to say it, but I firmly hold the contention that if a practical way could be found to knock off all flight cabin and engineering crew, sell all the aircraft the bean counters would. That is not to say Qantas would not exist it would...Millions of letter head would be out there, with all the "marketing support" for the brand and in the meanwhile every QF flight would be code shared with anybody they could find. All the assets sales would further increase the current and long term assets on the balance sheet! Imagine how the ratio analysis would look then?

The market would be oh so happy, more bonuses all around...Most importantly for the bean counters their jobs would be protected as it takes a massive bureacratic structure to manage this sort of virtual airline...

Yes Sunfish!!

The self esteem issue helps understand why they do these things, at least in part..When combined with lack of checks and balances it is catastrophic.

You could well be right, closing Frankfurt throws an extra seven flights a week somewhere else, which should help next years' bonus figures before somebody else gets onto the pacific and cuts what's left of the icon to pieces...

In days gone past this sort of crimanal gross negligence would be accompanied by public stonings.

They will do it anyway, but there are not enough people in the organisation who have the knoweledge to counter the "accountancy spin" . I don't buy their lame excuses, you can't fool all the people all the time. The really sad thing is that there are 1000's who rely on the company. I know Ansett was the same!!

Look who benefitted most from Ansett's demise...The two Mark's 3 years and still counting, not bad for a couple of accountants!


Just how is the cost apportioned in the group? Good old AIPA boss went to a company financial briefing, he saw how profitable each segment isvery informative he said (end quote) Betya he didn't ask on the cost apportionment, he wouldn't know! Bless his little company beating heart!

Last edited by QFinsider; 7th Feb 2005 at 19:48.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 20:38
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Here's the corporate vision:

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 20:44
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Its generally accepted in business that it is unwise to earn your income from only one or two big "customers". If one of them stops buying then your business is in deep trouble immediately.

By concentrating on LHR and LAX I wonder if QF is making the same mistake? Any disruption of those two markets is going to cause big trouble for them. I would have thought it might be better to spread their risk a little.

The managers goal: "Maximise return on investment in the LONG term"

By the way. Does the ATO know anything about the workings of the IATA clearing house in Montreal?
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 21:00
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Insider.

As said before - excellent thread. Woomera should sticky it.

One other transparent aspect of GD's 'strategy' is to compromise and control as many of the unions as possible.

By this I mean that members of various union committee's of management act in a manner inimical to their members interests. In some cases this behaviour is openly corrupt.

I have read with interest recent threads on the ALAEA.

So any ability QF staff have had (as in the past) to inform the shareholders & travelling public of the reality of QF's current management & work practices is lost.

Word is that flight ops management is 'rushing' to get as many changes in under the current regime in AIPA - fearing that the next COM elections with be a bloodbath, and the will lose 'their' men.

The EBA about to be presented to the troops is absolute crap from all reports.
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Old 7th Feb 2005, 21:38
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Peoples, the compromise of the unions is ongoing. You should see how much is dished out when pilots mention the fact the com should be legally restrained from taking management position for 3-5 years! The only thing the "institutionalised" members have is rank. And they try and pull it even in a bar!


The EBA will be all smoke and mirrors with a few magic beans!

Again if the AIPA company man goes to a briefing on the financial performance, all he does is tell us he went!
There is no analysis, no figures and he prolly got a nice belly rub..

Flight operations is staffed by the class of xx- they are babes in the woods corporate wise. Most of em are like the nodding dogs that sit in the back windows of cars...But they get bonuses and titles, which fluffs their egos. Unfortunately there isn't much else. Provide a legacy, provide leadership, give junior pilots a standard to admire, and most importantly leave it in better shape than you found it(and all other employees)- all sadly lacking...

Hence let's see the costs Geoffrey or even Peter Gregg..Show us the figures particularly how you arrived at them. JUST HOW ARE COSTS APPORTIONED? Maybe if Frankfurt goes it's because mainline is struggling under the weight of all the peripheral business units that cost shove back to mainline!!! Share the vision and your workforce may follow if there is more to it than rubbery figures and hollow words..

Oh and by the way, the "staff engagement survey" results are out...There will be briefings by the communications manager and flight operations management-can't wait for that one...mind you the result was supposed to be announced after three months! (some six months ago)The CP had to repeatedly assure the great unwashed it was secure and confidential, many staff with whom i come into contact aren't so sure!
They would have been working hard to put a positive spin on it

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Old 7th Feb 2005, 22:07
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where have I heard that word engagement before? Who did the survey and what was it supposedly about?

Many many years ago little Sunfish almost worked for McKinsey & Co, and I have seen them in action a few times since. Sometimes they do impresssive work, sometimes not.

My guess (and this is a lot of guessing) is that McKinsey was asked how to restructure the company. Now there is always a big argument in MBA circles;- does structure follow strategy or does strategy follow structure? The two are inextricably interlinked.

The problems facing QF include the following:-

- Huge beaureaucracy, a legacy of Government ownership. Too many levels of management full of brave talking souls like Mr. Qantas. with very limited skill sets. "Silo" thinking (ie to be in marketing you must be an ex FA, once an engineeer always an engineer, etc.)

- entrenched unions with all sorts of perks etc.

- Entrenched attitudes and a corporate culture not conducive to rapid change.

- A history of entitlement arising from government ownership (The National Airline).

- An inability to compete - QF has had a monopoly of capacity.

- Sunfish\'s favourite - the Sydneycentric attitudes of QF that have coloured its decision making for decades, to QF\'s own cost.


Those are the internal factors. Then there are the external factors;

- increasing competition.

- Lower cost operators using the latest technology to increase competition.


- Growing perception by Australian public that they have been screwed for decades by QF and deciding not to put up with it.

- demands of investors.

- attractiveness of QF\'s brand name.

- attractiveness of QF\'s huge international cash flows to certain "persons".


QF has some issues to face as well.

It cannot make as effective use of new technology as its younger competitors because of entrenched work practices that are highly resistant to change.

All state governments except NSW are heartily sick of QF because direct flight availability (AND capacity) impacts their tourism and overseas investment strategies.

Its political "connectedness" works both ways and restricts its options.


So the issue to me is "do you fix it? or do you break it first and then fix it?" I have a funny feeling that the answer may be the latter.

You would do this by building up J* and J* Asia and progressively dismembering and "starving" the mainline, this is often euphemistically called a "harvesting" strategy. Eventually you close the mainline because of poor performance, and perform "life boat drill" - which is where you invite a few of the youngest and fittest to join you in a new lean mean operation.

You protect your brand by renaming j* as "Qantas J*" during the transition period.

By the way, has QF surrendered in rights to fly into Rome etc.? Who is going to own the new A380\'s? I\'ll bet it will be a shelf company somewhere.
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 02:22
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Maximise dollars in the short term (ie this year) to fatten up the coming bonus. That is the goal of anyone in management - not their fault, just the way the incentive system works. If I could make a million or two in bonus payments in the next year or two, I would find it a hard carrot to ignore.

Unfortunately, they probably think they can make a bit more money per aircraft using them on other routes short term, so why go to FRA which is probably making money, when you could make a bit more going elsewhere. Unfortunately, competition will increase in a year or two, but the problem of declining profits, costs to bring in and set up a new base in a destination previously served, and not so fat bonuses will all be the headache of the next management group.

Plus it will take a few months for the frequent flyers to realise they can't go direct to where they want and go elsewhere. There is one vision for the company - maximise the next management bonus.
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 02:22
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One of the key findings of S11, the war on terror, the Asian economic crisis, the Bali bombings and especially SARS, was QF needed to develop a “strategically diversified route network that minimised the airlines exposure to individual markets and allowed the quick reallocation and readjustment of capacity”. I cannot think of one positive step taken in this direction.

As time goes by EK, SQ and CX will make it extremely difficult for QF to pioneer any new, exciting and highly profitable international routes. Maybe the slogan “I still call Australia Home” was a subliminal message! Except for those to be based in London!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 06:42
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By dropping FRA, QF is already showing that it is unable to compete against the likes of EK. If you want to go to Germany or the continent, why fly QF to FRA when you can choose from four daily destinations within Germany alone if you go on EK (Hamburg, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf or Munich) - not to mention any of their 21 other destinations in Europe, all one-stop from PER, MEL, SYD or BNE???

So, in the last ten years or so we've seen the loss of:

- Manchester
- Rome
- Paris (twice?)
- Harare
- Kuala Lumpur
- Beijing
- Seoul
- Taipai
- Ho Chi Minh
- various ports in Japan (4?)
- Port Moresby
- Papeete
- Vancouver
- Toronto
- Mumbai (reinstated)

Have I missed any?
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 07:00
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There`s More

Buenos Aires(in the last couple of years)
Extend the time frame a little and you can take out:
San Francisco
Amsterdam
Athens
Bahrain
Fiji
Tahiti
Why would anyone use QF?Frequent flyers can`t use their points to go much of any where.
You know if it wasn`t for the aircraft and the employees Qantas would be the perfect airline...Wouldn`t it Geoff?Imagine the bonuses generated by removing both.Watch this space!!
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 08:46
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thats it

This is exactly what I'm talking about..In the Qantas news Geoff refers to his highly unionised workforce, the fact that every three years x amount of EBA's need to be renegotiated...yadda yadda

Legacy airline this, legacy that

As we withdraw, we get isolated, mainline continues to struggle, load it up with apportioned cost. Eventually it collapses and they reinvent it in a much cheaper form, offering with their white knight, who knows maybe kerry and his cronies employment at vastly reduced rates. An induced shock generated from the inside...Only problem is that a few have cottoned on to it. (As sunfish pointed out this could be the game plan)

In the absence of hard figures there is no justification, however we are watching Geoffrey, hopefully in the interim the market moves your precious stock to a divest rating from the moderate hold or neutral they now suggest..
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Old 8th Feb 2005, 10:51
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Conspiracy?

The theory speculated upon requires both complicity and stupidity.Complicity with institutional investors,Federal Government and the relevant regulatory authorities.Or is it perhaps stupidity from these groups?Once a brand is destroyed its extremely difficult(impossible?)to resurrect.Not to mention the destruction of shareholder value?(Surely Criminal)Is the eradication of the unions within QF worth destroying the brand?How much profit is enough?A billion is a pretty tidy number.The current management are a pretty intellectually bankrupt lot,with the possible exception of Peter Gregg.Perhaps they are just stupid enough to create a mess without any particular agenda.
Most of the "visitors"won`t be here in two or three years and certainly not long enough to complete any agenda.
American Airlines has always been a possible suitor and indeed Citigroup is still sitting on a sizable tranche of QF shares from the brokering of the BA sale.Are these being being ringfenced for somebody?Packer vying for some contol/ownership doesn`t seem to fit with rest of his core business activities.
Perhaps this lot are stupid and just milking mainline for the benefit of their own pockets?
Whatever the reason there is definitely something rotten at Mascot
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