Did the Sun rise in the East?
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Infinity.... and beyond.
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Yes, the sun rose in the east……
And unfortunately, this demonstrates the abject lack of anything like a detailed safety analysis in implementing NAS. Just because a system is implemented and does not kill anyone on day one, or two or three hundred, does not mean it is safe. More importantly, it does not mean it is as safe as the system it replaced.
Over the last few weeks, innumerable drivers have been prosecuted for drink driving. Yet, each one of these drivers was able to be pulled up, tested and prosecuted for their offence without being killed. Is drink driving therefore safe? Does the sun rise in the east even with drink drivers on the road?
What NAS and the drink driving analogy demonstrate is that it is possible to incrementally reduce safety without immediate consequences. Anyone with even the most elementary understanding of safety management will understand that system safety can be compromised, and yet the system can remain accident free for some time: until all of the factors required for the accident occur at the right/wrong time.
Accidents will occur. Accidents would have occurred with or without NAS. NAS, has, however, reduced system safety to the extent that a collision is more likely: perhaps increasing the possibility from 1:1 000 000 000 000 to 2:1 000 000 000 000.
For me, anything which reduces air safety is anathema.
Perhaps more importantly, NAS has dramatically increased the potential effects of an accident. Pre-NAS, the ‘worst case’ scenario in terms of a (non-ATC error related) mid-air collision was likely to be a regional turbo-prop colliding with a VFR aircraft. Post-NAS, we have introduced the possibility the ‘worst case’ scenario will involve a heavy jet.
This incremental increase in risk has come at no justifiable benefit to any users, has increased the workload of controllers and pilots.
IT has been asked before. but……… why?
And unfortunately, this demonstrates the abject lack of anything like a detailed safety analysis in implementing NAS. Just because a system is implemented and does not kill anyone on day one, or two or three hundred, does not mean it is safe. More importantly, it does not mean it is as safe as the system it replaced.
Over the last few weeks, innumerable drivers have been prosecuted for drink driving. Yet, each one of these drivers was able to be pulled up, tested and prosecuted for their offence without being killed. Is drink driving therefore safe? Does the sun rise in the east even with drink drivers on the road?
What NAS and the drink driving analogy demonstrate is that it is possible to incrementally reduce safety without immediate consequences. Anyone with even the most elementary understanding of safety management will understand that system safety can be compromised, and yet the system can remain accident free for some time: until all of the factors required for the accident occur at the right/wrong time.
Accidents will occur. Accidents would have occurred with or without NAS. NAS, has, however, reduced system safety to the extent that a collision is more likely: perhaps increasing the possibility from 1:1 000 000 000 000 to 2:1 000 000 000 000.
For me, anything which reduces air safety is anathema.
Perhaps more importantly, NAS has dramatically increased the potential effects of an accident. Pre-NAS, the ‘worst case’ scenario in terms of a (non-ATC error related) mid-air collision was likely to be a regional turbo-prop colliding with a VFR aircraft. Post-NAS, we have introduced the possibility the ‘worst case’ scenario will involve a heavy jet.
This incremental increase in risk has come at no justifiable benefit to any users, has increased the workload of controllers and pilots.
IT has been asked before. but……… why?
Ace
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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4711,
I have come to the sad conclusion that reasoned argument such as yours is wasted here. The proponents of NAS are incapable of digesting it. They will probably respond with the startlingly original retort of "union scaremongering".
If only they would stick to playing flight sims whilst wearing their eppaulettes.
I have come to the sad conclusion that reasoned argument such as yours is wasted here. The proponents of NAS are incapable of digesting it. They will probably respond with the startlingly original retort of "union scaremongering".
If only they would stick to playing flight sims whilst wearing their eppaulettes.
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere Hot n Sandy
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Smaket,
All due to the loss of direct tracking on the outbound SID and also a required (BIG) reduction in speed on the return STAR.
I only deal in FACTS. Latest changes = increase in $$$ to operators. E has resulted in less flexibility for the controllers = more delays and hence higher costs to operators. I hope that Airservices is seeing a bigger decrease in costs....
Have a nice life
Fizzy
All due to the loss of direct tracking on the outbound SID and also a required (BIG) reduction in speed on the return STAR.
I only deal in FACTS. Latest changes = increase in $$$ to operators. E has resulted in less flexibility for the controllers = more delays and hence higher costs to operators. I hope that Airservices is seeing a bigger decrease in costs....
Have a nice life
Fizzy
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Time Bomb Ted
I guess you're new to aviation, or at least it seems that way from your naive understanding of how safety works.
Perhaps the simplest analogy is that of cleaning your teeth. If you cut back on doing it, or overuse the toothbrush, or use cheap or too little toothpaste....NOTHING WILL HAPPEN RIGHT AWAY. But it will one day. And then it will probably be painful.
This goes for regular maintenance, safety systems, training, risk analysis etc etc. It is not a requirement that there be dead bodies all over the place before you can lay claim to the idea that something was not properly thought through.
And by the way....why not take life rafts off passenger jets too. They weigh a lot and have rarely, if ever, saved a life. Get rid of a lot of stuff I suppose and the sun would still come up.....for a while.
I guess you're new to aviation, or at least it seems that way from your naive understanding of how safety works.
Perhaps the simplest analogy is that of cleaning your teeth. If you cut back on doing it, or overuse the toothbrush, or use cheap or too little toothpaste....NOTHING WILL HAPPEN RIGHT AWAY. But it will one day. And then it will probably be painful.
This goes for regular maintenance, safety systems, training, risk analysis etc etc. It is not a requirement that there be dead bodies all over the place before you can lay claim to the idea that something was not properly thought through.
And by the way....why not take life rafts off passenger jets too. They weigh a lot and have rarely, if ever, saved a life. Get rid of a lot of stuff I suppose and the sun would still come up.....for a while.
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
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Yes - the sun did rise in the East - yet bloody again - but at 04:20!
The only difference I saw yesterday was that instead of guessing who the VFR aircraft were and what their intentions were around the inbound high speed aircraft on descent - I knew. Nobody got knocked back a clearance around my neck of the woods - in fact they probably saved time and fuel by getting a direct routing across all the inbound STAR routes instead of avoiding the C Airspace.
If it is costing anbody money at the moment it is the airlnes that relied on Jeppesson to have the plates and maps out on time. They didn't manage to do it - so their is some pain being shared around at there:
ATS NOTAMN C0551/04
DUE DATA/DOCUMENTATION DELAYS FOR AIRAC CYCLE 25 NOV 2004
ACFT ARRIVING BRISBANE PLANNED VIA BLAKA
OR GOLD COAST CAN EXPECT TO BE ISSUED AN
INSTRUMENT STAR FOR RWY 01 AND RWY 19
FROM 11 250254 TO 12 221600 EST
The only difference I saw yesterday was that instead of guessing who the VFR aircraft were and what their intentions were around the inbound high speed aircraft on descent - I knew. Nobody got knocked back a clearance around my neck of the woods - in fact they probably saved time and fuel by getting a direct routing across all the inbound STAR routes instead of avoiding the C Airspace.
If it is costing anbody money at the moment it is the airlnes that relied on Jeppesson to have the plates and maps out on time. They didn't manage to do it - so their is some pain being shared around at there:
ATS NOTAMN C0551/04
DUE DATA/DOCUMENTATION DELAYS FOR AIRAC CYCLE 25 NOV 2004
ACFT ARRIVING BRISBANE PLANNED VIA BLAKA
OR GOLD COAST CAN EXPECT TO BE ISSUED AN
INSTRUMENT STAR FOR RWY 01 AND RWY 19
FROM 11 250254 TO 12 221600 EST
Join Date: Jul 2004
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Who is bagging VFR pilots? (What IS a VFR pilot BTW?)
Best check some of the dates on these posts as this thread has been resurrected from the heady days of one year ago exactly - you remember then : John Anderson was yet to campaign for another election and had to appease someone (well maybe more than one as it may yet turn out!)
Best check some of the dates on these posts as this thread has been resurrected from the heady days of one year ago exactly - you remember then : John Anderson was yet to campaign for another election and had to appease someone (well maybe more than one as it may yet turn out!)
Join Date: Jul 2004
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I can understand not having DST in the tropics - it is too hot to do anything after normal working hours if you do.
But there must be a line that can be drawn, say one side of Bundy or HBA or Gympie or somewhere - SEQ needs to be on NSW time - especially near the border.
Whilst first light was 4.20am this morning, my local kookaburra colony like to clear their throats around 3.50am!
But there must be a line that can be drawn, say one side of Bundy or HBA or Gympie or somewhere - SEQ needs to be on NSW time - especially near the border.
Whilst first light was 4.20am this morning, my local kookaburra colony like to clear their throats around 3.50am!
