Link here to jobs at Oxford. ATCOs and ATCAs.

https://www.oxfordairport.co.uk/job-vacancies/

GATCO have expressed concern that NATS have terminated the training of 122 trainee ATCOs who are now under threat of redundancy or re-deployment, some of them being within 2 weeks of completing training and receiving their Student ATCO licenses.
Long term this could lead to shortages as 'natural wastage' due to retirements, resignations, failure to achieve competency etc occur as traffic picks up in the wake of the slump caused by COVID 19..

I’m led to believe that there are over 200 Student controllers holding / on furlough at NATS just waiting for training to restart at units.

Which is nowhere near the number needed in the next few years should traffic return to anywhere near 'normal'...

So what is the magic number? Truth is that no-one knows! If traffic remains static or thereabouts then I know my unit will not be recruiting. No imminent retirements, no-one seems that keen to move anywhere at the minute due to the whole uncertainty. The talk is still of career breaks and part time working amongst other cost saving rumours, recruitment is definitely on hold.

UK traffic is at -62% from this day in 2019 (if I read the eurocontrol stats correctly).
At the same time, aircaft are probably less than half full on average so airlines must be at least 70/80% down. This is not just a blip. It's long term damage.

Whatever that "magic" number is, we're a long way from it..

Have to agree with the above comment. In the best case scenario the magic number of ATCOs will be achieved through natural wastage, what that number is and when it is reached is anyones guess. I suspect that many ANSPs will take the opportunity to reduce costs now that they have in effect a captive workforce, the days where you had a choice of several units to apply to have gone!

I’m sure you’re correct in the immediate term. However;

NATS recruitment frozen until God knows when.

Non NATS ain’t going to be sending people on courses unless absolutely necessary.

Doubt there will be many willing to risk leaving the mil to go civil any time soon.

Self funders? Forget it...

Can anyone else see where this is going?

Give it 2 years... oh no, we have no ATCOs again...

“Oh no, we have no ATCOs again” seems to be an oft-repeated theme for every ANSP. Unfortunately managers get bonuses/promotions for costs saved rather than long-term planning for the health and safety of a company.

With three years from recruitment to validation we should be recruiting now, but instead we will repeat the errors which lead to our forthcoming retirement bulge. Running short-staffed also leads to further staff attrition - its no fun being overworked or overloaded with no possibility to split frequencies and you find that those that can leave/retire do.

What exactly is the basis for the oft repeated phrase of "retirement bulge"? Genuine question, not having a go at anyone. I know many ATCOs in many units and no-one is living with an imminent staff shortage due retirements. Is this maybe a NATS thing? And if so, why?

In Germany we´re probably going to loose about a quarter of the operational workforce into retirement over the next five years. Hence a massive recruitment effort was started pre-Covid, ab-initios for the most part plus a few ready-entries from abroad. I´m not sure whether we can afford to continue this effort in the short term, but if not we´ll pay for it in a couple of years. Again.
Anyway, to be honest, the current situation is not trivial. Management knows as much as anybody else how traffic levels will develop....
Even if recruitment would continue, there´s really no way we could properly train all those new guys and gals. Sectors have been collapsed for most of the last seven months and the few simulators can only do so much.
I´m sure mighty glad we were way understaffed before this sh.. started.

During approx 91-93 NATS had a very large recruitment drive resulting in over 200 controllers per year being recruited, mainly in their early 20s. Even removing those who failed to validate, have left since etc., there still remain a large number of controllers, a large number of whom have left the DB scheme, now in their early 50s, and who may decide that, as they are able to access their pensions from age 55, retirement is a very real option. Granted the ‘new normal’ conditions may have changed this perception to some extent, but there remains a very high number of controllers at least theoretically able to retire in the next 3-7 years.

Isn't the pension access age going up to 57 now/shortly?

Yes but only for people born after ?1978? (Exact date not yet decided)

Thanks, I hadn't realised it was only from a certain age group.
That indecision is not great from the financial planning point of view.

Winter schedules have now been published, now that we have a better idea of what winter traffic levels will be like and now that most airports know the amount of financial struggles they face, has any ANSP decided on effective cost saving measures yet? I'm hearing of some airports reducing hours, this will obviously affect rostered cover required which in turn equals less ATCOs needed in the short term. There were murmurings of enhanced retirement packages a while ago to encourage those near the age to leave early, also talk of 2/3 working time and 1/2 working time etc. Nothing seems to have actually happened though - not sure if thats good or bad!

Stansted and East Mids are back to being in the top 3 busiest UK airports during the week, (ABZ probably up there too, but Eurocontrol stats don't show heli flights) which is what was happening back in April and May. Cargo & mail are the only things keeping the aviation figures up.
I don't think anyone who worked through the dire situation back then expected to see the same again so soon. Which of course is compounded by the natural slow down for winter.

Stansted has been second busiest for a few months now so it's not just cargo. Ryanair are flying as much as they can.

just been listening to a money programme looking at the losses incurred by travel industry. BA losing £50 million a day! They said airports were losing vast amounts of money. Said NATS hadn’t responded for information but the losses again are believed to be huge

The losses that airlines are dealing with are colossal, the sorts of figures that probably most of our high street businesses would already have collapsed from - yet the government seems content to watch it happen, strange. And no, I don't know the answer to fix it! The government today is apparently talking about another full lockdown, more pressure on aviation.

The airline losses will be impacting the airports financial status who in turn will be looking for cuts. Whats the biggest expenditure of a typical airport? Anyone want to take a bet that ATC provision has to be near the top of the list in most cases? Whats the biggest expenditure of a typical ANSP contract? That'll be those pesky expensive controllers, to quote from Game of Thrones - winter is coming.

escaped.atco. I'm not quite sure why you keep talking down ATC. It is an expensive part of the infrastructure but is essential. If you cut staff, it is very difficult to get back to a position where you can operate as you were last year. If you cut wages then some staff will just retire early, again leaving you short in the future. And let's face it, the ATC business was looking into an abyss of being short of staff before this crisis. Also, why would new people come in, devote their entire career to the job, when what was previously a good secure job, has now become insecure especially when you are training for 2 years before even having a chance of validating on a lower salary than before. Basically, it's the last part of the operation to cut back too much. It takes years to get an operation able to operate at an airfield that can shift 40-50 aircraft an hour all the time. You can't cut it and then suddenly turn the tap on again. Maybe if this situation lasts for a lot longer then there will be cuts, but it will be one of the last things to be cut. Just my opinion.

I don't mean to talk ATC down, I do believe however that as a group we need to be realistic regarding the state of our industry. Pilots are essential, they were also expensive, they have borne the brunt of cost cutting in many companies - both job cuts and degraded T&Cs. Ground handlers are also essential, they are relatively inexpensive, they have also borne a heavy price in job cuts. I suppose my point is that as a group we cannot expect to survive this crisis unscathed - thats not talking ATC down, its just my opinion that everyone within aviation will be affected in now way or another. When someone gets in their head that they're essential and effectively untouchable then thats a dangerous place to be. Remember every business is run by accountants - people that know the cost of everything and the value of nothing. If they can save a few quid over a relatively short term period then the problems in a few years will be just that - not something to worry about just now. I have sat in meetings with airport managers and believe me they only see the large wage bill from ATC, if it can be reduced then they really don't care the potential issues that might be there at a later time.

I take great pride in my profession, always have done. Ultimately though the older I get the more I realise we are just numbers on a spreadsheet in an accountants office.

Completely agree with that. Aviation right now is undergoing a ‘reset’ like never before. There have and will have to be cuts/ savings in every aspect of aviation, nobody is safe. There is no sign of any recovery right now and the losses just continue to compound exponentially. It’s a dire situation.

The current situation, for once, has nothing to do with accountants.

At the moment we are gardeners looking after concrete blocks. The only thing keeping us in a job is the hope that there'll be a garden again.

It's unsustainable.

I think the current situation had nothing to do with accountants as far as cause goes, but everything to do with accountants as to how its handled. Can you imagine contract negotiations over the foreseeable future? The accountant will be saying what they can afford and what they are prepared to pay, it will be up to the ATC provider to work out how to make it fit. I refer back to my previous post, the biggest part of any contract is in all probability is the wages bill. An uncomfortable fact but there we are.:hmm:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...e-back-in-2021

I imagine Mr. O’Leary will be the first to shout when there isn’t the capacity to match demand.

Is it going to get better
 

Feeling a bit in limbo now, tempted to start a business venture. Genuinely worried that ATSA’s jobs could be unsustainable, on the other hand don’t want to walk away if redundancy package is coming. Any thoughts people

justbeingnosey, not sure who exactly you work for but I'm hearing the threats of cutbacks have been reduced by a very large ANSP in the UK. They have seen fit to pay out bonuses to all staff and an extra bonus to management grades? This is just after paying out a large amount of VR packages with amounts that would settle the debt of a small third world country! It must warm the hearts of all the employees to know that even in these times of fiscal hardship that the gravy train has not yet been derailed. Should make for some interesting conversations at the next round of contract renewals though! :ugh:

Turns out it didn’t even take 2 years.

Who’d have thought it?

Across the pond even without ditching our trainees we're short again. This is going to be an interesting market for anyone willing to shop around I guess.

In Australia we’ve gone from reduced and standby rosters during the height of lock-downs, followed by a redundancy program, to multiple shifts that available for overtime that have to be filled on every group. Multiple towers are closing early most nights because the staff simply don’t exist anymore.

And so the cycle continues. I have seen it many times over my career as have many others on this forum I'd guess. Each time previously, wages have invariably gone up as ATCOs migrate to where they can get the best deal and lifestyle, smaller units struggle as the larger units hoover up the best qualified. Its lucky NATS have plenty of trainees that they pushed through last year just waiting to be given live training and validated, that'll help the shortage. Or maybe not, if I recall they sacked all their trainees while at the same time handing out large redundancy payments to non-operational staff!:ugh:

They certainly ain't going up this time around :uhoh: not for the time being anyway

Happened back in 1968.
I had just been selected for Air Traffic Control Assistant (ATCA; the 'old' name for ATSAs) duties in December 1967 by the Board of Trade; suddenly the government decided there would be a wholesale 'freeze' on ALL civil service recruitment (including ATCOs and ATCAs) for 12 months and I wasn't called forward until January 1969.