crewless aircraft

[pilot_2b]

hey all.

this is a question of opinion.
i have recently watched a program on the discovery channel about aviation.
basically it was about the future of aviation.
so do you think that it around 20 years time aeroplanes will be flown without any flight deck crew at all and just by computers since this is what they were saying???

any opinions would be great
cheers

[RadarContact]

Would you choose such an aircraft for a 12hr flight across the Atlantic?

Neither would I.....

[Cornish Jack]

NO, NO, NO!!!
Two crew - pilot and dog. Pilot to feed dog, dog to bite pilot if he tries to touch anything but dog-food. :E

[flyby_kiwi]

1)That type of technology has been around since the 1950's so if it were going to happen it would have by now.

2)As RadarContact pointed out it wouldnt have much of a sales pitch to the airlines passengers so thier a/c would still be piloted.

3)Remember that in the most unlikley event such a/c were developed on a large scale the a/c you see being built today would still be in service in 20years time an someone will need to fly them.

Had me worried in the early days but Ive come to realise it wont happen.

[Onan the Clumsy]

In a thick Scottish accent...

"It'll never work...Jim"

[Squawk7777]

There was a thread about it a few months ago. See here (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72839&highlight=Will+pilots)

[GlueBall]

Maybe pilotless cargo airplanes. But I doubt that in our lifetime a pilotless airplane would attract enough revenue pax. Today's safety reality is that at least one pilot would have to keep an eye on the automated flight guidance system. :ooh:

[flyby_kiwi]

I would have doubts as to wheather it would sell for cargo ops either. Most cargo a/c seem to be retired and converted pax a/c - Well thats the case down here and I doubt there would be too many exeptions around the world.

[*Lancer*]

The price is, and always will be the largest dictator of what aircraft people choose to get on, not how it is crewed.

Chances are you've been on a train without a driver...

Worse still - research is starting to show that pilots are more of a liability than a saviour.

I don't like the idea much, but I definately think aviation still has a significant amount of change to go through.

[Notso Fantastic]

Lancer- that makes as much sense as saying because all cars that crash have drivers in them, better to have cars with no drivers seats! Aeroplanes are going to get nowhere without pilots, now and for the foreseeable future. Ask the people who know- ask any aeromodeller would he travel in such a flying machine. Every aeromodeller has a cupboard full of wrecks where control was interrupted for some reason.

[A/P Disc]

The question is not if it is technically possible (which it is) but
if you can prove statistically and in practice that pilotless aircraft
will only go astray once in a couple of million times. Just like
ETOPS engines could only fly across the pond after it had been
proven that they had a certain very low failure rate.

To achieve all this with automatic pilotless aircraft is almost
impossible due to the enormous amount of variables which act
upon it. Think only of communication failures to this kind of
aircraft (happens daily even now), adverse weather, engine
failures, multiple system failures etc.

It would be so complex that you will never ever get an approval
of any authority because the failure rate would be higher
than at present. What about the cost of certification?
It would run into billions of dollars and the failure rate would
still be too high for commercial use.

The fact that armies around the world use pilotless aircraft and
by definition are passengerless is because they are expendable!

Commercial aircraft certainly are not.

[dusk2dawn]

Commuter trains without drivers are a fact in many cities today. Never heard of anyone disembarking due lack of driver....

[A/P Disc]

That's most probably because they think that they have one.
Try telling it to them and see what happens!

[flyby_kiwi]

What is the worst that could happen in either a plane (airliner) crash vs a train crash - Although I hope to never be involved in either I would have thought that should the 'pilotless' train fail the consequenses would not be as bad as if the a/c went astray.

What worries me more about the future is what happens when the oil supplies run out? Alternative power sources are being introduced for motor viechles but I dont see anything coming down the aviation alley for the next 20years or so - prehaps this could be more of a threat to our livlihood?

[Notso Fantastic]

I remember CNN doing a report many years ago about the dire straights of the UK economy at that time- 'very gloomy, country sliding downhill etc.' and the best bit......<view of North Sea Oil Platform>..."and they've got North Sea oil, but that's running out. ". The UK was supposed to have slid into the North Sea, but it's still there, one of the more prosperous European nations and still with enormous North Sea oil reserves. They're finding the stuff all over as fast as it's being used up. Immense reserves in Saudi, Siberia, Iraq, Africa. Thirty years ago we were promised it would all be used up by the millenium. We're still waiting!

[halas]

l remember as a kid jumping into the elevator in Buckleys & Nunn in Melbourne and there was lift operator. He was sure he would see out retirement in that box!

Trains have driver controlled input for one dimension - velocity.
Pretty easy to get a computer to do that.
It's managing the tracks that's still proving to be a head ache.

Now crewless aircraft, hmmmm
Think l have witnessed a few of those in my time, either by the quality of the "crew" or as result of the night before!
There are definately crewless aircraft out there now as we speak, and l am talking commercial aircraft :bored:

halas

[paulo]

A/P Disk, not quite...

...in London we have a light rail system where there is no cab at the front, just passenger seats and big windows. Those seats are very popular with riders! There is a train conductor who can drive the train manually if need be (which they rarely need to, but it does happen).

It might take awhile - decades, say - but I think the idea of pilotless, with someone riding along who can fly manually if required, is not unthinkable.

[A/P Disc]

Ah! So that's an Airbus train!

As I said earlier, the costs and certification problems make
it a hypothetical argument. As long as there are no
commercial benifits I don't see it happening in the near future.
Has anyone thought of extra costs like making aerodromes
suitable for all the automatic landings which will occur then?
For example, Greece has only a couple of airports which can
do this. Not even talking about aerodromes around the world
where automatic landings are totally impossible

And don't forget, aviation (rightly or wrongly) has
a very strange mindset psychologically speaking:
if 15 people die in a train accident without a driver or
15 people die in an pilotless aviation accident, people
react much more strongly in the aviation one.You can
see that happening now already, 15 people die on the
roads in the weekend: look it up on page 13.
15 people die in the air somewhere around the world:
see page 1.

A train and an aeroplane are very,very different machines.
Not only in operation but also in people's minds.

[Notso Fantastic]

<<It might take awhile - decades, say - but I think the idea of pilotless, with someone riding along who can fly manually if required, is not unthinkable.>>........shall we call such a person a.....'pilot '? And just in case he's back in the john when it all goes tits up, shall we put 2 of them onboard this 'pilotless aeroplane'?
C'mon everybody- do you really think Mr and Mrs. Jones are going to put themselves and their Jones Jnrs. on such a machine? Not in our lifetimes!

[Kerosene Kraut]

How do todays military long range drones behave like in civilian airspace? Any experiences? What level are they cruising at? Do they emit any transponder signals?

[paulo]

Notso... Heh heh...I did see that one coming.

The two backup pilots get to help the girls with the drinks. :}

[Notso Fantastic]

We're talking about getting rid of pilots who operate those technical monstrosities, and there are still girls dispensing drinks down the back?! Strewth, if mankind is so clever it can consider pilotless aeroplanes for passengers, shouldn't we be looking at robots giving cabin service FIRST?

[paulo]

Actually you are right - the robots would probably be more charming to the customers than the pilots. So it's back to plan A - dishing out the pedigree chum. :p

[buttline]

As a computer programmer turned commercial pilot, here's my two cents worth....

Like all technological advancement the upfront R&D and certification costs would be huge (and probably prohibitive on any grand scale in the present economy) but would certainly be outweighed by the long term financial gains. Think about it - no pilot pay, no simulators to buy, no training , no sick pay, no holiday pay, no pensions, no desk space, no uniforms, no meals, hotels, ground transport ever!! - it's a really huge cost saving to say nothing about the extra revenue from turning the cockpit into a First Class cabin with a great view!!

Also, the 911 attacks provide increased political impetus for this technology. If a/c are ground controlled, terrorists can only destroy them, not take control. If that type of attack is used again, it may go a long way to persuading the public they are safer on ground controlled flights.

On the other hand, I can't see a technology solution that could have saved the day like the crew in the Sioux City incident!


:8

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