Will B747 be obsolete in 20 years?

[bochen2k]

To any 747 pilot or experience/knowledgable person :

Just wondering, will the B747 be obsolete in the next 15-20 years or not? (becuase of all the new AIR BUS coming out and the research on MACH 8 flight that NASA is doing, and won't computer AI be smart enough to be autopilot all the way without the need of a actual pilot?) I like the B747 very much and would hate to see it go bye bye, but technology changes everything so I guess my querstion is will pilots be obsolete or even the current Boeing jets themselves? Thanks!

[JJflyer]

B747 obsolete... Depending how you you look at this thing.

Looking at the financial point of view I am sure that Classics will be very uneconimical to operate compared to newer types of the same size. This does depend on what kind of flying and what part of the world you intend to fly the ole Jumbo. Lower purchase price of an old airplane can more than offset the higher fuelburn, three pilot crews and higher maintenance costs. Ie there will be a market in some parts of the world for the classic for quite a while, 20 years, your guess is as good as mine.

The newer -400 will probably be soldier on for another 30 to 40 years and new version coughed up.
Just have a look how long the B707 and B727 have been around. Both have been out of production close to 20 years.Mods are still being designed for both airframes to keep them running.

As for Pilots becoming obsolete. I do not think so. Would you fly in an aircraft without crew? I would not.

[MarkD]

Depends on what you mean by "obsolete". If you mean, there is an aircraft which can do the same task [450+ punters over decent distance at subsonic speed] but better, then the A380 may be the one that causes it to be so.

However, Concorde is about 30 years old now and is nowhere near obsolesence, since no other manufacturer has a Mach 1+ scheduled airliner on the boards. And the way the Nimbys and Hacans of this world are going, it may never be obsolete, merely retired undefeated!

[FaPoGai]

Well it depends on your criteria. It was probably obselete as it made its first flight. But the first commercial flights of the Boe.707 were in 1958/59,certainly the Pan-Am tansatlantic service was 1959 and there are many 70's and it's contemporarythe Douglas Commercial 8 series,a better machine,in commercial service today.
First B.747 flight was 9 Feb 1969 and commercial service soon after. It's going to be around a lot longer than its antecedants, so define obselete but do'nt confuse it with usefulness.

Those Tilt/Squat switches are going to be around for a long time.
Rgds to Renton.

[Lump Jockey]

I wouldn't say obsolete either. According to Stanley Stewart's "Flying The Big Jets" he reckons pilots are more operators than pilots these days. That's operators of the hardware/software they have in the aircraft. It's a good point really, and I suppose it will only become more technological in years to come. Sort of like "push to start" and then just leave her alone?:(

[the_chairman]

I dont care how good UAV technology gets.

I want the pilots to be there in the thick of it! not on the ground, nodding off in front of a virtual reality screen. - Or the alternative - A fully automated AI pilot ! - I dont trust my fax machine.:D