Misplaced optimism and the 'where should I train' syndrome ...

[Luke SkyToddler]

Maybe it's just me being a miserable bastard, but I've been increasingly concerned lately at the incredible levels of optimism of a lot of people here who are about to get into training and all the incessant chatter about "where should I train to have the best chance of a job as soon as I graduate?". Just looking at that other thread of foghorn's about the BALPA conference, and it appears to me that quite a few people are showing an extreme reluctance to accept the fact that there will be SOD ALL chance of a newbie getting a job in 12 or even 24 months time, no matter WHERE you learned to fly.

You lot who are looking to get into training right now, well I would never say don't do it, but I really feel you should be asking yourselves some hard questions, not along the lines of 'where should I train to maximise my extremely remote chance of getting a right hand seat in 2003', but rather 'how can I start my training now and ensure that I can still be employable in 2006 -7 should it be necessary'.

The truth is that, depending on how things go with George Dubbya, it could be quite late in this decade before the next hiring boom, and by that stage 'where you trained' isn't going to come into it if you learned to fly back in good old 2002.

The trouble is in this current situation, with no one being quite sure when hiring will resume is that it's all about currency, especially if you're a low timer trying to get airline jobs. If you only have 250 hours to start with and you haven't flown for 2 or 3 years, then it doesn't matter where you trained you're not going to look that attractive to the airlines. Obviously people who have a few thousand hours, especially if it's IFR multi engine hours, can afford to go uncurrent a bit longer without their entire skills base going down the pan.

Now it seems to me that you could go and blow off 60,000 quid on an integrated course now, The USA could kick off the next world war and all of a sudden we're looking at another 3 or 4 years of no airline hiring (and you having more or less forgotten how to fly by the end of it).

Or, you could go spend your 35 or 40 grand on the modular thing and then allow in your budget to spend 2 or 3 or even 5 grand a year keeping everything current and gradually improving your skills.

Sure, it might not even be necessary ... but then again it might. I have at least a couple of my former students who graduated last year who are pretty much at their wits end, one of them is about to quit his flying instructor job because he can no longer service his massive career development loan on flying instructor wages, the other one is working and can't afford to keep current, I can see them both rapidly losing their flying skills and becoming unemployable unless something spectacular happens in the hiring market VERY soon ... and we all know that it's not going to :( :(

Sorry for being so negative but I am just trying to inject a bit of reality into the situation, when I log onto this board and I still see people happily talking away about spending huge sums of money on flight training because of the 'retirement bulge' or god help us 'the predicted pilot shortage' :mad: as though nothing's happened in the last 12 months, I really start to worry.

[Gin Slinger]

Good post, Luke.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Blunt........ but so right.

Somebody called it "Ive got 60k so I belong in the RHS of a large Jet syndrome".

Anybody thinking about starting training should seriously consider whether or not its wise.

Anybody instructing should look after your students royally (as ever) and look after that job......also we should moan less about instructing....hey its a job and it keeps us current

We all need to wake up a bit. :(

[FlyingForFun]

Good post.

You said "Maybe it's just me being a miserable bastard," and when I saw the title of the thread, that's what I thought too. But your post doesn't just outline the negative, it gives good alternative solutions, which are also the same conclusions I came to when I first started looking into getting the ATPL(f).

I'd also add that, if you already have a job in another industry, you should do whatever you can to keep that job while training, and until you get your first flying job. We all love flying, and we'd all love to be able to do it every day and get paid for it. But until we get to that point, we've all (well, most of us anyway) got bills to pay, and that has to take priority.

FFF
-------------

[foghorn]

Good post luke. Things that need to be said.

To all those enthusiastic wannabes just starting on the road to being a pilot: listen to those who are already down that road. There are things that you can learn from us to avoid the pitfalls that some of us made and increase your chances of success.

Just in the same way that many of us at the licence but no job phase (where I am) are listening hard to those in the airlines, to find out just how they got there, and what we should do to emulate them.

That's what makes pprune such a damn good resource.

cheers!
foggy.

[Flypuppy]

This thread deserves to be kept at the top.

The frightening reality of aviation in 2002.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Luke, if nothing else thank you for being the miserable barstand this time instead of me ;)

I too have ex-students out there struggling to find work with massive debt and although they are all good blokes its very very hard for them. Truth is there are hundreds of excellent pilots out there with <1000hrs and a Frzn ATPL. Getting noticed and picked out amongst them is damn difficult. I certainly wouldn't like to try right now.

That said I see some rays of light.

Britannia are hiring as have MyTravel. BA will have to if they don't contract in the next year. BACE already have recruited a few in recent months. easyJet have 120 Airbus to crew with only 60 Boeing crew. People like Channel Express and Excel and Astraeus all appear to prosper and take on new people as does EAC (anyone fancy 747-200 as their first job!).

Some of the smaller operators such as Emerald are also quietly hiring people in recent weeks. I have even heard of someone being taken on as an instructor last week which is unusual for this time of year.

The UK economy seems to have dodged a recession (just) and when compared to our continental cousins is well placed to speed ahead in the next couple of years.

True a Sept11th 2 or major war in the Gulf will dampen down the embers of recovery very nicely. Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

I find myself repeating my views of 12 months ago. It might be wiser to start slowly now on the modular route than to go rushing to join an integrated course. If you can stretch out the training over the next two and a half years whilst remaining in your current employment then that might be a very shrewd approach to becoming an airline pilot.

WWW

[lancelevin]

I think you quoted directly from my post last week, so I feel I should reply to help you understand my misguided optimism.

I am a University student studying IT and 18months ago I got a very good IT job in the middle of the dot.com collapse, when everybody around me was saying the end of IT is nigh. I am about to graduate in 2003 with a degree in an industry which has seen a 45% job market loss and into an economy which has the FTSE at a six year low. Graduate jobs are down 75% in some organisations and salaries are down 30%. Maybe I should just jump off the cliff now and save everybody alot of trouble. Or you could do what I do, and have been doing for the past 4 years which is analyse the situation, develop a risk plan and come to your own conclusions.

I believe there is Optimism/Reality & Pessimism, I feel your post is a semi accurate reflection of the market, people are out of work and terrorists are doing their bit to make us feel uneasy. However you seem to ignore that BA will be recruiting 1500 pilots over the next 10 years, that Britannia have just started a sponsorship scheme and that Ryannair are ordering 30 new 737's and hiring 150 pilots per year over the next two years, just to mention a few.

Your statement:

'how can I start my training now and ensure that I can still be employable in 2006 -7 should it be necessary'

well thats why I am getting a degree, to make sure that if I cant get a job in 2004 than I can still get a job somewhere, pay for some hours and pay off the loan.

If as you say "The USA could kick off the next world war" than not getting a flying job for a few more years will be the least of my worries, but more like oh my God I am prime age for national service where is the next Nuke coming from?

The reason why people like me come to very good forums like Pprune is because we are doing our risk analysis, working out whether we should invest 55 grand and where we should invest it. Anybody looking at the Pilot industry will be aware of the unemployment numbers, the same way I walked into my new firm 14 months ago at the same time 40% of the firms IT employees were leaving. To find out which school is best is vital, I dont want to be going to schools whose graduates are unemplyoable, you need to make yourself as attractive to the airlines as possible, and thats exactly what I am doing.

Thanks for the reality check, but you have been overtinged with Pessimism, if I were to listen to everybody who sounded as negative as you I would not have got a job 18 months ago in that dot.com collapse and there would be no point in me staying in University because I might as well dig out my cammo's and practice strategic exercises.

[GolfFoxtrot]

I have to agree Lancelevin.

Any one who reads this forum must be painfully aware that the employment opportunities for any pilot at the moment are quite rare especially for low hours fATPL guys. However as WWW pointed out the first signs of recovery are there.

Pax figures are forecast to increase by between 4.5-5% per annum depending on which departments statistics are used and BALPA's May issue of AirWaves (Vol 7 No 5) paints a very positive picture of recovery over the next 2-3 years.

This is all providing that tensions in the Middle East ease. There is a chance of this as UN inspections and new resolutions are iniated, in addition to the latest Indonesian incident, once again focusing global attention on the hunt for terrorists.


It is a risk all of us who may soon be embarking on training or who have already started have taken. If the Middle East Situation reaches some sort of détente then when we finish we will possibly be in a very favourable position, being recently graduated and current in an upturned market.

There is also a number of us who have harbored this dream for long enough to realize that the first flying job may not be RHS jet, but perhaps part time instructing and are quite happy with this apprenticeship. Whilst the re-numeration may not be appealing many will also have used degrees, apprenticeships, previous work experience to gain a better financial position and to guarantee alternative well paid, part/full time employment to compliment any first steps in the aviation industry.

Whilst a reality check is absolutly essential, ultimately if you don’t buy a ticket you can’t play the game.

[Tree Greens]

lancelevin,

I admire your optimisim, but can you please tell me where you found out that BA will be taking on 1500 pilots over the next 10 years!! Seems an awfully large amount, after all how many have they taken on in the last 12 months?

Just curious

TG:)

[thedove]

cheers for brutal honesty, I get a healthy dose every time i log onto pprune! if you're in your early thirties my money's on the shrewd move of going modular over a couple of years, but for those carrying the valid arguments of integrated and have no flying experience i suggest get a ppl (shows motivation), have fun for a year or two and then go full steam ahead.

[Roger The Hosty]

Good valid posts above.

The market is beginning to turn but i think that it will be a while for the jobs to filter down to the low hour people. As for starting training at the moment I think that it needs to thought through very carefully.

For those of you out there who have low hours( and theres alot if the Balpa conference is anything to go by) I think you should consider the alternatives i.e An instructor rating etc. A few of you might get a RHS chance over the next year but i feel very few will.
Where as an FI rating will give you a means of staying current , build the hours until you get your chance.

The Astraeus speaker made a very valid point at the conference,
stating that people want to go straight into the RHS of an airliner and don't consider instructing etc.

I personally think from speaking and listening to student at the school i instruct at that some think either it is beneath them and that they have a god given right to the RHS or that the elusive pilot shortage will take over and that a 737 will suddenly becon.

Fact is it will not.

When i started on the ATPL path i always intended to instruct for a season or two.
That is what i did and this made 9/11 very much a none event for my career plan.
Now I have 1400hrs I.R, MCC etc etc I am current,valid still in the aviation scene even if on the outer fringes and feel i am now employable. I have learnt more about how to fly and all the other things that go with it over the last two yrs than I ever did when i first went commercial.

Once the hiring begins it will filter down the chain and instructor jobs will become openly available we have taken on one this week and another got a job else where and these vacancies all came from people moving to the airlines.

If you go get an FI rating etc and hopefully land a job then this time next year you will have an extra 4-700hrs over the people that are just waiting it to fall in their lap.

[Kefuddle_UK]

Roger,


The Astraeus speaker made a very valid point at the conference,
stating that people want to go straight into the RHS of an airliner and don't consider instructing etc.

I personally think from speaking and listening to student at the school i instruct at that some think either it is beneath them and that they have a god given right to the RHS or that the elusive pilot shortage will take over and that a 737 will suddenly becon.

Well said! I just wanted to comment on the perceived lowness of instructing. I have to say I am suprised. I always perceived instructors to be professionals with the added talent of being able to communicate their skills to complete and utter novices. Although I am only PPLing right now I would not be happy with anybody other than someone who instils confidence in me.

It strikes me as obvious that a carrier will look more favourabley upon people friendly people and a stint as an instructor is surely one of the best ways to demonstrate yet more positive aspects of one's character. Peronsally I look forward to the chance of doing some PPL instructing, although it is quite a way off yet. The knowledge that it is also a valuable addition to my CV only encourages me further.

I maybe wrong here but the unions only seem to concern themselves with the top jobs in the top airlines. Are not the majority of pilots employed by the multitude of 'lower' carriers and training organisations? Just an impression I have...maybe misplaced.

Cheers,
Kef.

[FlyingForFun]

I think there are very few pilots who percieve instructing in itself to be "low". However, it is very poorly paid, and this is why it's may be considered a lower step on the career ladder than other options.

I'd love to instruct - I think it would be great fun, and would improve my flying considerably. Realistically, there is only one way I can afford it, and that's to hope that the housing market in the south-east continues to inflate until I have a CPL and FI rating. Then, I can sell my flat in the south-east and use the equity in my flat to pay cash (or a very large deposit) for a similar place in a cheaper part of the country. This would reduce my mortgage payments to virtually zero, and enable me to live off the pennies which instructors earn. And it will only work if the property market continues to move in the way it has been for the past few years.

Does this sound like a gamble to you??? I'm about a year or so away from having to decide whether it's too much of a gamble for me.

FFF
------------

[Airbus.De]

Exellant advice from both sides for some one like me, Quallified AC Electrician (A320) You have made my mind up

Stay in my job get PPL etc

From 0 to FI can anyone give me a figure as what to expect to pay.

Unfortunatly live in Germany at the moment wont return to the UK till 2003.

Anyone Know of English teaching Flying school in Hamburg.

I am 22 is this still young with respect to becoming an earning pilot (Broughton Filton shuttle would do me):rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Being a huge fan of the journalist Anatole Kaletsky in The Times I am heartened today to read his analysis that the odds on War in Iraq this winter are only 1 in 3.

I am sure we can all point to internet resources that argue the opposite or indeed a spectrum of views. But I for one am going with Anatole and, if he is right, then at least the industry has some much needed breathing space.

Just heard today from another mate of mine who just landed a UK jet job with 1,200hrs - well done Griff. :)

WWW


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-449254,00.html

[juggernaut]

I have been reading all these posts on whether to try instructing or not, the main thing in most of these comments are that most of you people would like to do it as a career but that the conception is that it is poorly paid. In general that is true but like all professions the more qualified you become the more you earn. 20 years ago I was an engineer earning good money, I packed it all in to go flying and for 5 years scraped a living and had to resort to going back into engineering to make ends meet and pay the mortgage. I continued to gain experience part time and eventually gained a QFI rating and taught IMC and night ratings. I also paid for an examiners rating and became the senior instructor at my club, the boss recognised the fact that I had not cleared off to the airlines and trained me to CPL and eventually FIC instructor. I do not get to fly shiny jets but I earn as much as I did as an engineer and am home each night. The flying is still great fun! The moral of this story is that if you are in the position that you want to instruct but cannot afford it then reconsider. When the job market picks up there will be an instructor shortage and the qualified guys will be in big demand just like the last time.

[Meeb]

Luke has it spot on, and as others have said, its amazing how some just cannot see it.

BA needing 1500 pilots is pure conjecture based on flawed retirement figures...

WWW, Emerald are not recruiting, they are just starting to take back guys they made redundant 6 months ago. Channex have nothing till next summer...

There will always be the odd person who gets a foot in the door, but things are NOT picking up, not yet, and not for a long time to come. There is plenty more bad news to come yet I am afraid. :(

[FlyingForFun]

juggernaut,

Thanks for you post. It's always good to hear from someone who's already been there and proved that it's possible to do it, whatever "it" is, despite the odds - it helps the rest of us look past the problems to see the solutions.

FFF
--------------

[no sponsor]

as I've written a number of times in the past,the so-called "good times" of the preceeding years Sept 01 were not that good. I've been around on the forum for a good 3-4 years, and those were not good times. Let me remind you:

- BA filled its requirements with a few DEPs and Cadets. Unless you were under 27, then that was not a suitable route.

- Influx of EU citizens, and those with Grandfather rights to come and work in the UK. A vast majority of available jobs were taken by those with 1000's of hours from Oz, NZ and ZA.

- Non CAP509ers were still expected to have at least 800+ hrs. Occassionally, you'd hear of other low houred people getting jobs, but it still was the norm to be high houred. Many were instructors, either part-time or full-time.

- A few other sponsorship schemes, like BM, Monarch, Brittannia and FlyBe (apart from BM these were all for under 27 yo)

Things back in the good-old-times were still grim for any low houred pilot. The competition was fierce because of the influx of non-UK citizens, and the topics on this forum were all of the same: CAP509, buying ratings etc. Add to this the current climate, and yes things are even worse: we have ex-Ansett pilots doing their conversions here, plus the many who have been made redundant. But don't for one minute think in 12 months time, when things may pick up (I have my doubts), that it returns to a land of milk and honey, it won't. There was NEVER such a time.

Be sensible.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well Emerald may be re-taking on ex-employees but I still call that recruitment. Especially when some are turning them down because they have other offers.

I am a natural glass is half emtpy person when it comes to airline recruitment. But I *do* see some reasons to be cheerful at the moment though.

Its still a hell of a hard market and nobody should have any illusions.

WWW

[DeltaT]

www - are you sure mytravel are/were recruiting?
I would swear I saw ads in Flight offering their pilots to anyone who wanted them?!

BA, retirement etc...this is all assuming they actually maintain their pilot numbers, are we all forgetting their strife in the battle against Easy, Ryanair etc, not that I am saying they will go under, the government is bound to come to the rescue, but cutting costs would seem prudent

Good post Luke!

To those of you looking at taking out a big loan and going ahead with the training with optimism, some advice, as Luke touched on with one of his students, make sure you have a method/means of paying back those monthly loan repayments -until you are in the Airlines-, which could be many years....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The ex-Airtours cadets chopped in training post Sept11th have been taken on - that counts as hiring.

WWW

[El Desperado]

As I sit here, I am wondering if I will still have a job tomorrow.

If MYT goes belly-up then there will be around 400 type-rated, current pilots wiith at least 2000 hours looking for work.

You peops with 200 hrs on light a/c won't have a chance. Sorry, but that's the plain and simple truth.

You cannot plaan for these 'left-field''' occurences, but listening to the advice above may well save you some heartache and a lot of cash.

[Snigs]

Spot on Luke, and you usually are.

As we all know the industry is on a knife edge at the moment and none of us know which way it'll fall. War, imho, is inevitable as long as George W is at the helm and Tone remains his puppy dog, when is the guess.

Another worrying thing is MyTravel, with an accounting black hole of £50m and a share price of 18p what's going to happen to them? Guess(1)..... they go under and there are more experienced pilots on the market, or guess(2) they get taken over, which inevitably leads to restructuring and the possibility of some experienced pilots on the market.

Neither augurs well does it?

What we need to see is the experienced F/O's getting command, the other F/O's getting promotion to senior F/O's. This will create the vacuum lower down for people like me. I just don't see it happening yet.

The trouble with working for a living and getting older is that youthful optimism is replaced by cynical realism.

There have been few truer things said on this message board!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well yes, if MYT goes under then that will put us right back to Sept12th as far as hiring goes.

But, their aircraft are still full of people going on holiday. Presumably if the group went under then the IT sector would still have to move the same numbers of people around. Albeit at possibly slightly less discounted ticket prices. Lets all cross our fingers and pray it doesn't happen.

Its when nobody wants to fly at any price that things are terrible for the industry as a whole. Usually times of war or proper economic recession. Which as I say, I think perhaps are not such likely prospects.

Fingers crossed. :(

WWW

[foghorn]

At the BALPA conference the MYT chief pilot said that the airline itself shows a profit.

Obviously there would be a big impact if MYT group went under, taking with it one of their big sources of passengers, however it's not a case of all doom and gloom.

Having said that El Desperado implies that he works for the company so may know something that we don't...

[El Desperado]

There's nothing inherently wrong with the airline per se, but one of the (unconfirmed) lines of thought is that the CAA might be forced to pull MYT's operator's certificate if it cannot meet the bonding requirements.

I'm a pilot, not a business analyst, and I can assure you that no-one is telling us anything. Mushrooms. We have found our information from newspapers, business programs and the net - we are not being talked to so it is all speculation for the moment.

I think WWW is correct - the seats have been sold and the pax numbers are there, but there might well be the capacity amongst the remaining IT operators and the likes of EAC to absorb it if we go under. I just don't know.

You won't be interested in my personal job woes, but the importance of this to those who are thinking about training cannot be underestimated - I would advise you follow the situation closely before parting with the cash because, as WWW rightly points out, if we go under, you can virtually kiss low-hour hiring goodbye for a fair while.

Six months ago, we were patting ourselves on the back in being in the safest airline, jobwise, in the IT market. We got pay rises, better increments, better conditions... all was pretty rosy. Within a week, the share price has crashed 80% and the spectre of total insolvency looms.

For sale - one 1986 B757-225..... thirty-eight careful owners, and only 60,000 hours on the clock. Just resprayed, full sheep-hide trim. 2 new tyres, TV player, coffee-maker etc. Full wing-tank fuel. First to see will buy, genuine reason for sale. Must go this week ! Might p/x for van. Please call El Desperado on..... :)

[Captain Airclues]

The figure of 1500 recruits for BA is rather excesive. There are currently 90 TEPs in the hold pool and the last TEP course finishes at Jerez in November. The first of these TEPs started their 737 and Airbus conversion courses last week and there will be a steady stream of them joining us until the middle of next year. After they have all joined, any requirements will be filled with fully type rated pilots.
BA will be increasing the retirement age to 60 in 2006 which will effectively put a hold on recruitment for five years. I would estimate that the total requirement is about 300 up until then, as we are past the retirement bulge.
I cannot predict the future, as I don't have a crystal ball. However, I would encourage anyone who is in a regular job to go down the modular route, and hang on to your day job. Things will improve eventually but they are going to get worse before they get better.
I'm sorry if this sound pessimistic. I don't want to put anyone off as it is the best job in the world, but please think very carefully before getting yourself in debt with the hope of a light at the end of the tunnel. It is a long tunnel, so take your time, plan your training carefuly, and eventually you will emerge into the sunshine.

God luck to you all.

Airclues

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Captain Airclues - thank you for taking the time to make that post, most informative and timely. Your continued input to this forum over many years is appreciated.

The much hyped "retirement bulge" never impressed me much - it all sounded alarmingly like a sales pitch from the schools.

WWW

[Meeb]

Captain Airclues wrote: "as we are past the retirement bulge"

Not according to the BA presentation at the recent Balpa EOC! According to BA they are in the middle of the 'retirement bulge' and it will not tail off till after 2004.

I was chatting to a soon to be retired BA 747 Captain who commented that the official BA figures were not correct and an underestimate.

However, the remainder of Airclues post rings true.

[Tree Greens]

I would agree with Airclues in that we are now past the retirement bulge-or at least at the tail end of it this year. Just to add though,I have heard that TEP courses will not be expected to finish at Jerez until early next year.

TG

Edited for sloppy grammar;)

[Andy_R]

maybe this is a slightly strange slant to this thread but here goes..... I run a private hire/airport transfer company and it has been noticeable in the last six months how much busier our airport side has become. If this were exclusively our boast then I would see no need for optimism : however it is throughout the whole of our industry and the increased business is ONLY on the airport run side, indeed the private hire side of all similar businesses is becoming a smaller and smaller market.

And armed with the knowledge of passengers return flight details it is not just restricted to the likes of easyJet et al, but also shows a substantial increase over last year on passengers using BA, as well as the likes of MYT, Air 2000 etc. How well this reflects nationwide I dont know but it certainly applies to the London airports.

I would agree that the business travel is down but more holiday makers must be a sign of increased confidence in air travel.

WWW - Yet more good advice and I am another "wannabee" wondering which route to take and trying to use my experience of the big bad business world to be as pessimistic as possible, and would agree that the slowly but surely approach would be the better one to take. My only problem with that is my age wont stop and wait for the market to pick up!!!!!!

Maybe I should just have fun with ppl...:D

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I shouldn't worry too much about age.

Better to become a commercial pilot with 5 extra years on the clock than to become one and spend the first 5 years of your career unemployed, dissheartened and struggling to remain current/enthusiastic.

For those starting out in - say 1998 like myself with the exams - things were OK. There was work about, it was always hard but at least you heard of people getting jobs. Everyone I worked with as a PPL instructor in 1999 now has a decent flying job. We stay in contact a bit and everyones happy with their lot. It has been a good 5 years.

For someone starting out last or this year the contrast might be quite stark. You could have the same aptitude, go to the same schools, network just as hard and be just as plausible at interview. And yet you are going to struggle like hell and its going to get you down. If what you are doing right now gets you down a lot then perhaps its merely out of the frying pan and into the fire. If however you currently have a happy enough lot at work I suggest you aim to enter the market in a few years time. The difference it makes to your career and your outlook on flying can be marked.

Remember there are a heck of a lot more people apply for ATPL exams than ever unfreeze an ATPL. There is a reason for that and it isn't pretty.

As I said earlier though. The market is starting to move just a little bit. If MYT keeps trundling along ( I think they will ) then there will be a bit of hiring this winter. Which 12 months ago would have been to the more optomistic end of my expectations.

Good luck,

WWW

[Captain Airclues]

Meeb

Apologies. I should have said that BA were past the PEAK of the retirement bulge (which occured in June 2002). One word can make a big difference to a statement. I stick with the rest of my post.

Airclues

[Luke SkyToddler]

What bothers me more, is that bit where Captain Airclues says there'll be no BA recruitment from 2006 for 5 years!! :eek: :eek: This should be ringing major alarms for everyone who's coming through the system now ... just about the right time scale for you to finish your exams, do your year of instructing /hour building and two or three years on turboprop and ... whammo! Lid gets put on job market for the rest of the decade.

Read it again and think about the implications ... someone in the know is saying no BA recruitment between the years 2006 and 2011. Sends shivers right up my spine, that does, just when I was starting to feel all good about things again :(

[Captain Airclues]

Luke

Thinks might not be as bad as you think, for two reasons;

1. Although the option to continue to 60 will be available from 2006, not everyone will want to take it up for varous reasons.

2. The supply of experienced, type-rated 55 year-old pilots will dry up (SX currently have 82 ex-BA pilots on the 747-400), which could mean more vacancies in other airlines.

Airclues

[Gin Slinger]

An implication of #2 might be higher wages at non-BA airlines - fewer 55 year old guys floating around already getting £70k from their pensions.