View Full Version : Six Months ONE Fatal World wide accident
Asturias56
2nd Aug 2023, 08:10
This months "Flight" has their usual 6 month Flight Safety Update
They record a single fatal ( the Yeti crash at Pokhara - 72 dead :() in all Commercial, regional & commuter flights worldwide
The previous "best" period was in a 6month period in 2015 (5 fatals, 65 deaths)
This is truly astounding - think of all the types, the number of flights, the immense variety of destinations and airlines - and all the way down to small Mom & Pop operations.
Evn one is too much of course - but it looks as if we're getting there.
.
ShyTorque
2nd Aug 2023, 08:19
Well, that’s jinxed it! :uhoh:
Stochastic noise is a bitch. Better average over a longer period.
Asturias56
2nd Aug 2023, 09:22
Of course - but it's still amazing when you think of it - no-one killed in E Indonesia or Central Africa for example..................
RadioSaigon
2nd Aug 2023, 22:41
Of course - but it's still amazing when you think of it - no-one killed in E Indonesia or Central Africa for example..................
ahhhhhm not quite. There was a Part135 fatal in Papua that killed 5-6, just a little over a month ago, that I know of... The Indonesians are Very Very practiced at keeping that sort of thing out of the mainstream. A brief search of the usual sites will reveal what little is out there. No doubt there’ll be others.
There’s still a pilot kidnapped in Papua over 6 months ago, “missing“ in Papua too.
Years ago one of the over arching aviation bodies reported a zero rate for some particular accident statistic, I suppose you'll be breaking out the champagne to celebrate asked a reporter, no was the reply, we consider it a statistical abberation that we don't expect to see again. Realism at work.
DaveReidUK
3rd Aug 2023, 06:48
ahhhhhm not quite. There was a Part135 fatal in Papua that killed 5-6, just a little over a month ago, that I know of... The Indonesians are Very Very practiced at keeping that sort of thing out of the mainstream. A brief search of the usual sites will reveal what little is out there. No doubt there’ll be others.
Yes, Indonesian-registered Cessna Caravan came down in the Papua Mountains in late June, all six on board died.
Presumably not categorised by Flight as "Commercial, regional & commuter", hence not included in their Review.
https://news.detik.com/berita/d-6794595/basarnas-temukan-bangkai-pesawat-sam-air-tak-ada-tanda-korban-selamat
compressor stall
3rd Aug 2023, 10:10
Presume the stats are for RPT not charter.
Either way, quite remarkable. Especially in the COVID aftermath with recently parked aircraft niggles and not that current pilots.
Asturias56
3rd Aug 2023, 16:08
ahhhhhm not quite. There was a Part135 fatal in Papua that killed 5-6, just a little over a month ago, that I know of... The Indonesians are Very Very practiced at keeping that sort of thing out of the mainstream. A brief search of the usual sites will reveal what little is out there. No doubt there’ll be others.
There’s still a pilot kidnapped in Papua over 6 months ago, “missing“ in Papua too.
Indonesian Papua is a very strange place- I spent a while there way back so I know exactly what you mean. Timor was worse in those days but it was a close run thing.
"Presume the stats are for RPT not charter."
They say "all commercial airliner categories"
The non -fatals include Cessna grand Caravan ferrying in Uganda, a chartered King Air in Argentina , an AN-26 carrying aid freight in Congo, a cargo Caravan in Hawaii and a Beech 1900 of Skylink in Winnipeg - so it's a fairly wide range
It comes from their own ASCEND database partners
tdracer
3rd Aug 2023, 16:26
Just to put a little perspective on this:
If we still had the same fatal accident rate today that we had in the 1960's, with the number of flights we currently have we would average more than one major fatal accident per week. And in those days, there were few flights by so-called 'third world' operators - nearly everything was flown by western airlines.
Statistical fluke or not, one fatal in six months is damn impressive... :ok:
Asturias56
4th Aug 2023, 09:36
Yes - at all levels - back 6 years the US magazine Flying pointed out that between 2012-2017 flying was 8 time safer than the period 2002-2012 and 20 times safer than 1982-92
I'd presume that was US, mainly non-airline given their subscription base
Salusa
4th Aug 2023, 18:54
Yes, Indonesian-registered Cessna Caravan came down in the Papua Mountains in late June, all six on board died.
Presumably not categorised by Flight as "Commercial, regional & commuter", hence not included in their Review.
https://news.detik.com/berita/d-6794595/basarnas-temukan-bangkai-pesawat-sam-air-tak-ada-tanda-korban-selamat
Indeed you are correct.
Happens more often than the mainstream media reports.
At least twice a year I would reckon and usually involving Granite Cloud.
Never really find out the reason(s) as a big brush and carpet are standard protocol.
krismiler
5th Aug 2023, 02:08
Even more impressive is that this record was achieved during the recovery from the COVID pandemic with a rapid ramp up in operations. Pilots who hadn't flown for a prolonged period were being brought back on line and aircraft were returned to service after long term storage. Credit is due to all involved in playing their part, engineers, cabin crew, ground staff etc.
It is actually coming the same for all transport mediums. Railways in many developed countries are going years without a passenger fatality. Even road traffic fatalities are ever falling. It's all a common combination of addressing the issue from many directions, better training, better procedures, more survivable vehicles, learning from past events and near misses and engineering things out, etc.
BEagle
5th Aug 2023, 16:49
Well, that’s jinxed it! https://www.pprune.org/images/smilies/worry.gif
Indeed. In Apr 1990 I was attending a Flight Safety officers' course at MoD Adastral House. During the opening talk, the speaker said "Well, so far it's been a good year, chaps - no fatals. Perhaps I shouldn't really have said that, last time I did someone went and pranged!".
A few minutes later a Shackleton flew into the Isle of Harris, killing all 10 on board....
RIP
Asturias56
6th Aug 2023, 08:22
Even more impressive is that this record was achieved during the recovery from the COVID pandemic with a rapid ramp up in operations. Pilots who hadn't flown for a prolonged period were being brought back on line and aircraft were returned to service after long term storage. Credit is due to all involved in playing their part, engineers, cabin crew, ground staff etc.
yes - there were a few incidents as they started up again but in general the industry has done very well to get things up and running (from a safety view anyway)