Roll up, roll up, for Bain and Jayne’s pea and thimble trick

[PoppaJo]

Nice one from the AFR.

the ol’ pump n dump is well underway…

Roll up, roll up, for Bain and Jayne’s pea and thimble trick

Joe Aston
With elaborate pageantry, this newspaper declared on Friday (https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/fashion-and-style/i-m-not-afraid-virgin-ceo-s-moment-of-truth-20230301-p5col4) that Virgin Australia chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka’s “moment of truth” has arrived.

“I’m not afraid to be myself,” she said in one of three interviews (to say nothing of the elaborate fashion shoot) designed to present a painstakingly curated version of herself.

Project Runway: It’d bring a tear to your eye if you hadn’t seen this tragicomedy three dozen times. Paul Harris

Hrdlicka has been in public life, in the leadership of Australia’s highest-profile organisations, for nearly 15 years. She’s a known quantity. So why is any of this necessary? Why the reset? We’ve all heard her 30-minute speeches at the Australian Open...

Only two years ago, Hrdlicka tried another of these heroic profiles – that one for Good Weekend– and blew her own reputation to smithereens. She claimed she quit as CEO of a2 Milk in 2019 “because her husband had cancer” and that “I don’t think a2 handled that particularly well”. She also accused the media of sexism and of falsely reporting her awarding of $19 million in fees to her former firm Bain & Company.

The a2 Milk Company responded (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/a2-milk-challenges-jayne-hrdlicka-s-falsehoods-20210316-p57b8w) that Hrdlicka had been allowed to say she was leaving for family reasons when she was really terminated, and confirmed that she’d spent $NZ26 million with Bain. The brouhaha ran for nearly a week (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/jayne-hrdlicka-furore-reaches-final-act-20210317-p57bo1).

“Project Runway” was the headline on this, Hrdlicka’s latest softly-lit once-over. A better one would’ve been “Here Private Equity Goes Again”.

Virgin’s owner, Bain Capital, has demonstrated “a patient, strategic, long-term orientation,” Hrdlicka insisted, inanely. Actually, Bain has gone from acquisition to IPO beauty parade in 2½ years flat.

“From the day we came out of administration we started buying new aircraft, hiring more people, investing in systems… investing in talent,” she said. “We were spending money from day one to build for the future.”

It’d bring a tear to your eye if you hadn’t seen this tragicomedy three dozen times.

Most of Bain’s supposed investment is totally unverifiable. They were buying aircraft because they took fewer than 60 737s from the administrator, which was never enough. They were in a hiring phase because they’d just sacked everyone. Meanwhile, they were serving 2 Minute Noodles in Business class.

“I think that’s exceptional private equity,” Hrdlicka contends. “That’s the very best of private equity.” We’re not like the others, see? Literally every PE firm says this.

Bain is different but also Jayne is different. This is not robotic, bait-and-switch (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/bain-installs-hrdlicka-at-virgin-having-promised-not-to-20201015-p565js) Jayne, this is honest Jayne. Investors won’t be ripped off because Jayne is there and you can trust her. She wears divine clothes and plays tennis. Her son plays tennis, too, and she’s a terrific mother. She will never fall into the clutches of those short-term, tax-dodging private equiteers who previously sold you buckets of **** at the top of the cycle. Oh no, Jayne is there for you.

Observe who provides verification of this narrative: Jayne’s father. Jayne’s direct reports at Virgin. Diane Grady, who joined Jayne on the Tennis Australia board in 2016 after Jayne had joined Diane on the Woolworths board in 2010. Tennis Australia CEO Craig Tiley, who also relies upon Jayne’s patronage. Tiley helped install Hrdlicka on the TA board after she reached out to ask him how he talks to people. How do you do it, Craig? Please explain to me what it’s like to be human.

Jayne is merely the vehicle for this PE sell. This is her last big kill. This is $50 million plus, and if that means playing dress-ups and saying foolish things and getting Dad to email the Financial Review, then she’ll do it. For that kind of money, who wouldn’t? Just don’t ask us to believe any of it.

Friday’s profile confirmed that Hrdlicka has colonised Virgin’s executive team with her former colleagues from Bain, Jetstar and a2. Wherever she goes, she transplants her entourage.

Does anyone think that Jayne or her entourage will be around in five years? No, they will make f--- off money and then do what people who make f--- off money all do: they f--- off. Virgin will be left with only their watermark, a cheap aftertaste of their greatness. The traumatised rump of management will be left to pick up the pieces, yet again.

Private equity isn’t complicated. It has one trick, which is to dress up a company’s accounts and sell us cups of warm sick posing as revolutionary new wellness smoothies. Nothing illustrates this more perfectly than the ridicule Hrdlicka reserves for the $35,000 Poltrona Frau leather chairs former Virgin Australia CEO John Borghetti put in Virgin’s The Club (now Beyond) lounges. “Those three lounges were costing the airline $600 every time a passenger walked through the doors”. Today, however, “it is not bleeding cash every time someone sinks into a leather chair.”

The point of these chairs is to make Virgin’s most valuable customers feel like they’re in Milan, or in a Ferrari, to make them feel like Alan Joyce can keep his Chairman’s Lounge. Did Hrdlicka get rid of them? Hell, no.

In Virgin’s financial accounts, thanks to their write-down at acquisition, the cost of providing the customer benefit of luxury furniture is zero. This is why those lounges no longer cost $600 per passenger – not just because they took seafood off the menu.

The replacement cost of those chairs in five years’ time is astronomical. Of course by then, Bain is gone and so is Jayne. The point is that it’s impossible for an IPO investor to determine the true cost, five years from now, of providing Virgin’s current service.

On a far greater scale than lounge furniture, the aircraft industry provides abundant opportunity for creative lease accounting, where today’s cost may be nothing like tomorrow’s cost. Back-ended leases were the key to the greatest private equity shakedown in Australian history: Myer. The annual lease liabilities in the prospectus bore no resemblance to the liabilities in later years. Accounting standards were updated to deal with this issue but you could still drive a 737 MAX through the loopholes. Where there’s a will, there’s a way – and there is a lot of will.

Hrdlicka is, as ever, incredibly ungracious. She claims Virgin went broke because of bad management, not because aviation is a fiendish industry. If only she could drill some sense into amateur capital allocator Warren Buffett who knowingly says: “Investors have poured their money into airlines and [aircraft] manufacturers for 100 years with terrible results.” They were all badly managed, Jayne would tell him. They didn’t have me.

How much money has Qantas made in the past 15 years? None (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/alan-joyce-has-canberra-all-figured-out-20230226-p5cnp0). Zero. Even in the pre-COVID decade, Qantas barely made money. And Alan Joyce is supposed to be the gold standard.

If Virgin was such a good business, Bain and Jayne wouldn’t be selling it to us now. If Virgin’s growth prospects were still so promising, Bain would be reinvesting profits to capture that growth for itself rather than paying itself a monster dividend, selling you their equity at five times what they paid for it and funnelling those proceeds through the Virgin Islands.

This is a carnival trick as old as civilisation itself. Don’t watch the thimble and don’t watch the pea, don’t watch the cups or the ball, watch the sleight of hand before your very eyes.

[Ollie Onion]

Brilliant, we see it time and time again.

[Switchbait]

An accurate assessment.

[Gnadenburg]

Virgin will be left with only their watermark, a cheap aftertaste of their greatness.

Did Virgin ever become a great airline? Certainly started in cringeworthy fashion.

[Jack D. Ripper]

Last I checked, ONLY PE were lining up to buy VA.

So who else was going to buy it?

[Icarus2001]

Private equity isn’t complicated. It has one trick, which is to dress up a company’s accounts and sell us cups of warm sick posing as revolutionary new wellness smoothies.

​​​​​​​ What great summary. Hats off to the writer Joe Aston for not holding back.

[Lead Balloon]

What great summary. Hats off to the writer Joe Aston for not holding back.Hear! Hear!

I loved this bit, too:If only [Hrdlicka] could drill some sense into amateur capital allocator Warren Buffett who knowingly says: “Investors have poured their money into airlines and [aircraft] manufacturers for 100 years with terrible results.”

[Tommy Bahama]

Like almost every other person who has manager in their title at that goat show she lives in a completely self absorbed ulterior universe. She should be in politics but then again playing dress up like a 5 year old is just as appropriate. Maybe focus on putting food on an aircraft for your "guests".

[ebt]

The original piece that Aston references was a pure glow-up for Bain Jayne. It portrayed her as the slayer of costs when in reality Scurrah started that process off before he was knifed by the new owners who wanted Jayne. The Administrators were able to cut the debt and hand Bain a trim, taught and terrific profit machine. Thanks to the demand conditions being so much stronger than anticipated post-Covid, they now look set to make a motza by selling at the top - or close to the top - of the market.

And as Joe rightly points out, those managers who are pumping it up and rode the wave, while keeping quiet and letting Qantas take the heat for delays, cancellations etc, will f--- off in a few years, having done nothing to build a culture of long-term success. Rinse and repeat.

[PoppaJo]

will f--- off in a few years, having done nothing to build a culture of long-term success. Rinse and repeat.

Virgin is essentially just in caretaker mode at the moment, you need to wait until the pump n dump is over, everyone to ‘move on’, then worry about what the next lot will do. Whatever happens, the cost base will increase.

Will they just walk in keep Virgin what it should be? 100-120 737s. No, they will introduce the widebody fantasy again, fight the roo again, cost base creeps, newly minted executives trying to prove a point, and the whole place is up the ****ter again.

Forget the long term. Keep an eye on the medium term. All the good folks on the front line want is some stability (and a competitive
salary too).

[tossbag]

Everything I've read about the virgin triple operation was that it was the only part of virgin flight ops that was making a profit?

[Mr_App]

I would like to see a third party audit anything to do with "Virgin" and "Profit" in the last decade. Shifty bastards moving money all over the place during the dying years to make things look better vs the reality. Its own Frequent Flyer arm pursued its parent as a creditor for hundreds of millions in "loans" that the market had no idea about, a secret that only a select few knew, to make things look all pretty. Amazed they didn't "borrow" from employee entitlements at one point, but who knows, anything seemed to be on the table.

[MickG0105]

... It portrayed her as the slayer of costs when in reality Scurrah started that process off before he was knifed by the new owners ...
Scurrah announced that he was cutting costs but failed spectacularly in achieving anything in that arena; non-fuel operating costs actually went up by over four percent when the business was meant to be cost cutting.

His list of documented "accomplishments" include:

Paying $700 million for 35 percent of Velocity that had been sold five years earlier for $355 million.
Funding the Velocity transaction entirely by raising debt; a $750 million notes issue at 8 percent interest (notes holders all subsequently took a bath on that). In just that single transaction he managed to send the net equity of the business underwater to the tune of over $100 million.
Overseeing a headcount increase in the course of a 'rightsizing' program that should have been decreasing it.
Knocking nearly 40 percent off the profitability of the domestic operation.
Managing to spend $2.70 for every $1.00 of extra revenue gained.
Delivering VA's worst half-year result since the GFC; that included a 42 percent reduction in EBIT margin (all pre-pandemic, mind you).

[puff]

Everything I've read about the virgin triple operation was that it was the only part of virgin flight ops that was making a profit?

2015 as an example.....

​​​​​​Virgin Australia Domestic reported Underlying EBIT of $111.1 million for the 2015 financial year, an improvement of $210.1 million on the prior corresponding period. Operating margins improved from -3.1 per cent to +3.4 per cent.

​​​​​​Virgin Australia International reported an Underlying EBIT of -$68.9 million for the 2015 financial year, a decline of $22.8 million on the prior corresponding period.

[Vag277]

I am amazed how many airline managers are on this site when it appears that they could do a better job than the current incumbents....or is just the Australian sport of cutting down tall poppies without putting your hand up to do a better job!

[non_state_actor]

I would like to see a third party audit anything to do with "Virgin" and "Profit" in the last decade. Shifty bastards moving money all over the place during the dying years to make things look better vs the reality. Its own Frequent Flyer arm pursued its parent as a creditor for hundreds of millions in "loans" that the market had no idea about, a secret that only a select few knew, to make things look all pretty. Amazed they didn't "borrow" from employee entitlements at one point, but who knows, anything seemed to be on the table.

Not to mention the unbelievable bonus they paid the FF CEO at the time.

[Icarus2001]

…or is just the Australian sport of cutting down tall poppies without putting your hand up to do a better job!

You may need to point out the tall poppies for us.

[DanV2]

Virgin is essentially just in caretaker mode at the moment, you need to wait until the pump n dump is over, everyone to ‘move on’, then worry about what the next lot will do. Whatever happens, the cost base will increase.

Will they just walk in keep Virgin what it should be? 100-120 737s. No, they will introduce the widebody fantasy again, fight the roo again, cost base creeps, newly minted executives trying to prove a point, and the whole place is up the ****ter again.

Forget the long term. Keep an eye on the medium term. All the good folks on the front line want is some stability (and a competitive
salary too).

If the 'usual suspects' of SQ, one of the middle eastern carriers (QR or EY) and so on get in with a stake again, it will be a 'history repeating' moment considering SQ and EY's very dismal track record at overseas investments. Another contender in NZ would not want to get involved again for a long time (if at all) after the AN and VA 1.0 (JB vs Luxon) fiascos.

Everything I've read about the virgin triple operation was that it was the only part of virgin flight ops that was making a profit?

LAX was reported to be their 'only' long haul destination making revenue. No use keeping the 777 (even if they ended up mortgaged/borrowed against at the time VA 1.0 filed voluntary administration) if the other long haul destinations i.e HKG, AUH, et al even with former owners support in HNA, EY et al were bleeding red ink/losing money on a weekly basis.

[Mr_App]

LAX was reported to be their 'only' long haul destination making revenue.

Reported by who? Virgin? Another lie then.


I am amazed how many airline managers are on this site when it appears that they could do a better job than the current incumbents....or is just the Australian sport of cutting down tall poppies without putting your hand up to do a better job!

We can't do a better job, they are the experts in turning mutton to lamb, the people on here will do what is best for the employees, the people over there will do what's best for their bank balance. Will this be the greatest private equity heist of all time? Come back in a few years and you will find out.

[Sunfish]

Bain doesn't do "Pump and Dump" it is worse than that.

Bargain hunters beware! Bain isn't going to run away and leave a ravished virgin to be picked up by bargain hunters and carted off to the hospital for a bit of emergency surgery, a new dress, bit of lippy, a new haircut and she'll be right as rain won't she???

Errr, no. Virgin after Bain is syphilitic but much more difficult to cure.

Bain is in the process of inserting itself into Virgin exactly like a parasite. There will be management and consulting contracts. Bain and its friends will also have service contracts. There will be lease agreements. These contracts will have many years to run. They will have exit penalties that effectively prevent a new owner from touching them. They will have automatic indexation. There will be renewal rights and massive termination payments. Not a day will go by without Virgin writing a cheque to a Bain entity for decades.

And of course Bain plans to maintain a shareholding. That is intended give them a Board seat to watch over the new Board to prevent disinfection efforts. And if Virgin still thrives what will Bain do with their shareholding? Why sell it to Virgins competitors of course.

[tossbag]

2015 as an example.....

​​​​​​Virgin Australia Domestic reported Underlying EBIT of $111.1 million for the 2015 financial year, an improvement of $210.1 million on the prior corresponding period. Operating margins improved from -3.1 per cent to +3.4 per cent.

​​​​​​Virgin Australia International reported an Underlying EBIT of -$68.9 million for the 2015 financial year, a decline of $22.8 million on the prior corresponding period.

Uhmmm, how about 2016 onwards?

​​​​​​​LAX was reported to be their 'only' long haul destination making revenue. No use keeping the 777 (even if they ended up mortgaged/borrowed against at the time VA 1.0 filed voluntary administration) if the other long haul destinations i.e HKG, AUH, et al even with former owners support in HNA, EY et al were bleeding red ink/losing money on a weekly basis.

I specifically referenced the triple 7, not the A330 operation. And as you said, it was making money. Prior to administration and the covid scam, Virgin's USA operation was great, the competition kept fares at a reasonable level and made money.

[Jack D. Ripper]

Bain doesn't do "Pump and Dump" it is worse than that.

Bargain hunters beware! Bain isn't going to run away and leave a ravished virgin to be picked up by bargain hunters and carted off to the hospital for a bit of emergency surgery, a new dress, bit of lippy, a new haircut and she'll be right as rain won't she???

Errr, no. Virgin after Bain is syphilitic but much more difficult to cure.

Bain is in the process of inserting itself into Virgin exactly like a parasite. There will be management and consulting contracts. Bain and its friends will also have service contracts. There will be lease agreements. These contracts will have many years to run. They will have exit penalties that effectively prevent a new owner from touching them. They will have automatic indexation. There will be renewal rights and massive termination payments. Not a day will go by without Virgin writing a cheque to a Bain entity for decades.

And of course Bain plans to maintain a shareholding. That is intended give them a Board seat to watch over the new Board to prevent disinfection efforts. And if Virgin still thrives what will Bain do with their shareholding? Why sell it to Virgins competitors of course.


Sunfish, can you provide previous examples of such behaviour by Bain?

[Mr_App]

Bain is still well and alive in A2 Milk and Tennis Australia, just like it will be for a long time yet with this company. I remember a quote from the executive who replaced her at A2 Milk, something around "Bain consultants crawling all over the business" then "I just need to get into the weeds to understand it more". He got into he weeds, then figured out he wasn't able to get out. He recently promoted a new Head of Strategy, a Bain alumni.

Sunny is right. They will be writing cheques to Bain for a long while yet. That will increase in frequency when they have sold most of the business at the top of the cycle. Now they spend 20 years milking fees.

[MickG0105]

... He recently promoted a new Head of Strategy, a Bain alumni.
...

I'm pretty sure that a2 Milk Managing Director and CEO, David Bortolussi (formerly of McKinsey and PWC, just by the bye), has not promoted a new Head of Strategy. Eleanor Khor has held that role at a2 since 2018.

[Jack D. Ripper]

I'm pretty sure that a2 Milk Managing Director and CEO, David Bortolussi (formerly of McKinsey and PWC, just by the bye), has not promoted a new Head of Strategy. Eleanor Khor has held that role at a2 since 2018.

Stop quoting facts…..don’t you know this is a rumour forum

[Sunfish]

Jack D Ripper examples?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-private-equity/561758/

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/toys-r-us-creditors-sue-former-bain-capital-kkr-execs

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-183291/

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/why-private-equity-firms-like-bain-really-are-the-worst-of-capitalism-241519/

Ohh Yes, and this:

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/how-bain-capital-played-hrd-ball-to-secure-virgin-20201212-p56mxy

But there is more Jack; I've had to work with bastards like these and I still have the scars. Your job, career, truth, decency, ethics, honor mean nothing to these psychopaths.

This clip from "succession" epitomises their behaviour. I have seen "games" very, very close to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYqqW3c2mBU

[Sunfish]

And another thing Jack; I'm labeling you as a Bain sock puppet based on your posts such as these:

hat makes you think VA has a monopoly on ‘MBA types’? Not even close.

Does it surprise you? They are smart, think alike, are commercially savvy, work as a team and can communicate incredibly effectively.

Sadly the reality is that the days of people with deep operational experience running airlines are long gone.



Can’t imagine Jayne or Bain tolerating mediocrity, particularly given the perilous nature of the airline (and industry) at the time.

Old mate may have simply found he was not a good fit for the new performance culture.

[Still don’t get why the cynicism towards company attempts to ‘invigorate and energise’? Would you prefer ignore and demotivate?

VA amazes me, people who, by all accounts would have been unemployed if not for Bain are now bitter and twisted.

Maybe you need to talk to the ex Ansett people who didn’t have a saviour and ended up unemployed or starting again at the bottom of someone’s seniority list.

[UnderneathTheRadar]

Todays AFR says the whole thing is off for now - and they’ve found a way to blame Boeing - late delivery of the MAX apparently

[PoppaJo]

I am fairly sure they get that Toyko slot taken away if they don’t use it by they said date, which is a touch over 2 months away. Whoooooopsy.

That route will be a disaster for passengers regardless with diversions, engineering dramas. Just wait until one breaks down in Japan. Anyone fancy a three stop trip Sydney to Toyko on a 737-700? Should have kept a few A330s on re negotiated leases, could have kept Brisbane to Los Angeles too.

[JetFixer]

Why doesn't VA use an ACMI operator with a widebody to fly to Tokyo? Maybe they didn't think of that. I see Air New Zealand flying into Perth with one.

[DanV2]

With UA's recent adds to CHC and BNE (plus BNE-LAX for the Northern Winter) for the upcoming Northern Winter season (with varying start dates from Late October till end of November), plus with UA reintroducing AKL-LAX. Safe to say any VA return to USA on their own metal has now been firmly ruled out.

[UnderneathTheRadar]

With UA's recent adds to CHC and BNE (plus BNE-LAX for the Northern Winter) for the upcoming Northern Winter season (with varying start dates from Late October till end of November), plus with UA reintroducing AKL-LAX. Safe to say any VA return to USA on their own metal has now been firmly ruled out.

when was it ever in? they have nothing that could make it any more

[greenslopes]

Why doesn't VA use an ACMI operator with a widebody to fly to Tokyo? Maybe they didn't think of that. I see Air New Zealand flying into Perth with one.
The terms require that the airline using the slot, to use their own ‘Tin’, they cannot wetlease, sublease, crosslease or any other kind of lease.

[TBM-Legend]

The terms require that the airline using the slot, to use their own ‘Tin’, they cannot wetlease, sublease, crosslease or any other kind of lease.


not so! For example Air Vanuatu were using Nauru Airlines on an ACMI basis recently on the AIr Van schedule to/from Australia.

[43Inches]

not so! For example Air Vanuatu were using Nauru Airlines on an ACMI basis recently on the AIr Van schedule to/from Australia.

So Vanuatu has the same conditions of foreign slot access as Tokyo/Japan, interesting....

[markis10]

not so! For example Air Vanuatu were using Nauru Airlines on an ACMI basis recently on the AIr Van schedule to/from Australia.

What one can do between two particular countries does not mean the same applies elsewhere:

The airlines of each Party shall be permitted to conduct international air transportation using aircraft (or aircraft and crew) leased from any company, including other airlines, provided only that the operating aircraft and crew meet the applicable operating and safety standards and requirements.

Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of the Republic of Vanuatu relating to Air Services (Port Vila, 2 July 2013) - [2015] ATS 23 (http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/other/dfat/treaties/ATS/2015/23.html)
Agreement between the Government of Australia and the
Government of the Republic of Vanuatu
relating to Air Services

By comparison the agreement with Japan has nonspecific wording

https://www.info.dfat.gov.au/info/treaties/treaties.nsf/alldocids/3bf4da094f7fdd78ca256afb001b3e9d

[Ken Borough]

The terms require that the airline using the slot, to use their own ‘Tin’, they cannot wetlease, sublease, crosslease or any other kind of lease.

Unless the Japanese have changes the rules, how did JAL have damp leased B743s from Qantas for quite some time? Not only that, slot usage does not fall within the terms of a bilateral - there's a big difference between 'rights' and 'slots'. The two are not mutually exclusive.

[deja vu]

I am amazed how many airline managers are on this site when it appears that they could do a better job than the current incumbents....or is just the Australian sport of cutting down tall poppies without putting your hand up to do a better job!
More like triffids than poppies in this case.

[43Inches]

Unless the Japanese have changes the rules, how did JAL have damp leased B743s from Qantas for quite some time? Not only that, slot usage does not fall within the terms of a bilateral - there's a big difference between 'rights' and 'slots'. The two are not mutually exclusive.

JAL is a local airline, probably have different rules and slot allocations to foreign operators who might try to get around slot caps using alternate carriers from another nation. A bit like Australia's restrictions on foreign carriers operating domestically and internationally, but local carrier can do what it likes.

[airdualbleedfault]

Australia is a candy shop for scammers, multi billions of dollars a year, the VA IPO will just be another in a long line of scams. You would think that VA Mark 1 would turn most away, how to turn 2.25 into 0, but people are basically dumb.. and greedy, so I'm sure they'll get plenty of suckers

[Mr_App]

Australia is a candy shop for scammers, multi billions of dollars a year, the VA IPO will just be another in a long line of scams. You would think that VA Mark 1 would turn most away, how to turn 2.25 into 0, but people are basically dumb.. and greedy, so I'm sure they'll get plenty of suckers

Reminds me of the Velocity deal. $750m of unsecured notes offered at 8% interest. Meanwhile the place was heading for the toilet. Plenty of takers however.

When it comes to PE, $2b of debt today, certainly does not mean $2b of debt tomorrow.

[Snakecharma]

Toss bag I believe you are correct, the only wrinkles in the force as it were, were the new J class seats that, whilst a world class product generated naught in extra revenue but cost a tonne of fuel on the 777 and about 500 kg on the 330 for every sector.

The self proclaimed oracle Massimo mortgaged those aeroplanes for about 100 mill a piece to keep funding his ego driven efforts, which if the administrators had half a brain they could have bought back for about 20 mill a piece and had something to provide a complimentary service on the pacific to their partner United (which is no great shakes - or wasn’t last time I flew on them) and something to run to Haneda instead of a 737.

Virgin was a basket case for about 8 years courtesy of a bloke I still reckon was paid by Qantas to do over their competition, because “JWI” - John wants it - trumped business cases, risk analyses and sheer common sense and he was a vindictive little so and so at the same time.

Qantas needs a viable competitor, if for no other reason than to keep it honest and improving. A monopoly breeds contempt and doesn’t encourage innovation. So a strong virgin is good for both virgin and Qantas.

The 777 operation was world class, and deserved better than what happened to it. Some of the best years of my career were in that machine - so I confess my bias.

I don’t say it is better or worse than QF because I simply don’t know - but it was world class and a fabulous experience that I shall never forget.

[tossbag]

The Virgin 777 operation was terrific, having family in the States and making many trips a year you could rely on them. Never, ever had an issue, they were reliable and always a good price.

Qantas needs a viable competitor, if for no other reason than to keep it honest and improving.

Mate, it's gone past that, they are a shot duck. If you look at the massive UA expansion over the pacific, it dwarfs qantas. qantas is too busy shafting its staff to notice what just happened. We haven't heard from American or Delta on their pacific plans yet. Delta announced a 5 billion dollar profit but promised better results, this while announcing massive increases in pilot remuneration.

qantas is an embarrassment, where is the fleet growth announcement, pretty much replacing old planes, haven't got the balls to expand, management happy to just line their bloated world class remunerated pockets. Compare the remuneration to airlines 10 times their size. Australia, aviation embarrassment.

[Chronic Snoozer]

But they do have a codeshare with Emirates which allows you to request a special meal.

[PoppaJo]

That is a big capacity dump from United, making another Virgin attempt fairly challenging if they want to make money. If that is the case, then they really don’t need a widebody. Fancy ordering one or two big twins for one random Toyko route? Doubt it. Stick to that 737 model and don’t get distracted.

[anonfly]

If VAA go for widebodies the market I would put all my focus into is India.
It is now the largest population in the world, has a huge middle class to grow, 5th largest economy expected to grow to 3rd. A young population, going to be Australia’s largest expat community within next 5yrs.
The IPO was a golden opportunity to tap this market and possibly get Air India involved.
I would have some faith in VAA continuing to be a viable competitor to Qantas if it showed some vision like this.

[tossbag]

That is a big capacity dump from United

Wouldn't necessarily call it a dump, they've obviously looked at the deer in headlights, retiring widebodys without any hope of replacing them, fat, dumb and happy. Look at the States and see airline management doing their ******* job, building a business.

[PoppaJo]

You bet the yanks are doing many things right at the moment…. network, fleet and employees. Not perfect, but not terrible either.

Hopefully Delta comes to Melbourne. Since when has anyone relied on the main Australian carrier to transport them around the world? They bait the media for what is a decade about one magic long haul trek to Manhattan. Others just announce these things and get on with it.

/sorry back on topic. Hopefully Virgin back to the states one day.

[Red69]

That is a big capacity dump from United, making another Virgin attempt fairly challenging if they want to make money. If that is the case, then they really don’t need a widebody. Fancy ordering one or two big twins for one random Toyko route? Doubt it. Stick to that 737 model and don’t get distracted.

They can stick to a 737 fleet however that will cause a revolving door of crew. There will be minimal career progression on offer and minimal variety in types of flying. Guys will go to the competitor or head overseas. They have a lot of work to do to retain crew.

[tossbag]

Virgin was a case of the employees making it what it was, the staff there were great, unfortunately incompetent imbeciles running it into the ground. I doubt they will ever cross the pacific again, it's a pity but it's too late for them. The US airlines will smash it from here. When I travelled to the states before you know what I would first go to the virgin website, then qantas. Now, it's United first, ANZ second, then looking at going the long way through Asia.

[DanV2]

You bet the yanks are doing many things right at the moment…. network, fleet and employees. Not perfect, but not terrible either.

Hopefully Delta comes to Melbourne. Since when has anyone relied on the main Australian carrier to transport them around the world? They bait the media for what is a decade about one magic long haul trek to Manhattan. Others just announce these things and get on with it.

/sorry back on topic. Hopefully Virgin back to the states one day.

The BNE-SFO increase is funded by the Queensland Government, and is currently subsidised in its x3 weekly form. It's bad enough that the 3x weekly BNE-SFO was inconsistent, yet taxpayers are funding the increase of services to daily.
Source: https://www.dtis.qld.gov.au/news/latest-news/articles/2023/april/from-golden-gate-bridge-to-story-bridge-flights-to-start-daily

BNE-LAX on UA however is somewhat a good move, striking against a weakened QF offering of the A330s, but questions remain whether if that's only seasonal for the Northern Winter/Southern Summer season considering the US3 tends to send most widebodies to Europe during the Northern Summer seasons.

[DanV2]

They can stick to a 737 fleet however that will cause a revolving door of crew. There will be minimal career progression on offer and minimal variety in types of flying. Guys will go to the competitor or head overseas. They have a lot of work to do to retain crew.

There is Alaska Air with their all-737 fleet pre-Virgin America (VX) involvement.

However they did absorb Horizon Air (an all Embraer operator) into the parent operation whilst slowly phasing out the old V-America Airbuses from the mainline Alaska fleet as those leases expire.

[Red69]

That's all well and good but doing 4 sector days, 4 days in a row on some of the worst pay in the industry isn't going help retain the troops. They've got bigger issues at play that I'm sure any buyer will be well aware of. There is a lot of money that needs to be spent to make VA a real competitor again.

[TBM-Legend]

They can stick to a 737 fleet however that will cause a revolving door of crew. There will be minimal career progression on offer and minimal variety in types of flying. Guys will go to the competitor or head overseas. They have a lot of work to do to retain crew.

Southwest Airlines with 700+ B737’s only seems to do ok with a single type as does Ryanair.

it’s the company that keeps people not the types

[RodH]

Maybe a new leader will help. I see a certain QF leader is leaving soon so maybe he will be available.:E

[dejapoo]

Maybe a new leader will help. I see a certain QF leader is leaving soon so maybe he will be available.:E

Too soon. How good was spaghetti? 🤢

[JPJP]

Southwest Airlines with 700+ B737’s only seems to do ok with a single type as does Ryanair. it’s the company that keeps people not the types

With regard to the former; apocryphal at best. It’s seniority, scope, money and time off. The ‘company’ is long gone. With regard to the latter; it’s British/Euro pilot low wage desperation, combined with fresh meat in the right seat. Daddy’s money pays for cadets. The ‘company’ is as attractive as its advertisement slathered aircraft cabins.

Bread and circuses.

[No Idea Either]

Heard a rumour from a friend of a friends dog……..who heard it from the Townsville refuellers’ dog, that the IPO has been suspended whilst a certain ME carrier was looking into taking a very large share of VA. Please…please…please let’s not have history repeat itself, although last time Spaghetti was signing cheques his bank account\ego couldn’t afford…….

anyone else heard this? Mick, PoppaJo, Sunfish…..anyone…….

[t_cas]

Qatar.

[No Idea Either]

That’s the rumour……….

[MickG0105]

Heard a rumour from a friend of a friends dog……..who heard it from the Townsville refuellers’ dog, that the IPO has been suspended whilst a certain ME carrier was looking into taking a very large share of VA. Please…please…please let’s not have history repeat itself, although last time Spaghetti was signing cheques his bank account\ego couldn’t afford…….

anyone else heard this? Mick, PoppaJo, Sunfish…..anyone…….
Haven't heard that one but I don't have a dog, so maybe I'm out of the loop.

[1A_Please]

Heard a rumour from a friend of a friends dog……..who heard it from the Townsville refuellers’ dog, that the IPO has been suspended whilst a certain ME carrier was looking into taking a very large share of VA. Please…please…please let’s not have history repeat itself, although last time Spaghetti was signing cheques his bank account\ego couldn’t afford…….

anyone else heard this? Mick, PoppaJo, Sunfish…..anyone…….
I have heard that Bain would be interested in at least a part trade sale which would underpin the IPO. Obviously the two potential candidates are Qatar or Singapore. Experience would suggest either would be fine but both would be a worry. Without a part trade sale, it is likely Bain will have to hold onto a larger share for a longer period than they really want to.

[PoppaJo]

Looks like Virgin isn’t part of the first group getting 737M vertical stab fixes done this month. Qatar and Southwest seem to have priority. Got to keep the big spenders happy first I guess.

Seems like the earliest they will get it will be late July, assuming they get a slot next month.

Will be interesting to see if the Japan authorities give them some leeway or just take the slot away. Virgin has asked for extensions numerous times, doubt they will have much patience left. Sounds like one route might become a bigger distraction vs originally thought, might be better to just ditch the dream and move on.

[DanV2]

Looks like the Queensland Taxpayer subsidies may have to be handed back to the Queensland Government if Bain aren't willing to go through the trouble of using their mentioned back-up plans (the 700s) for CNS-HND.
CNS-HND is one of the Aviation Investment Fund (AAIF) subsidised routes funded by the Queensland taxpayers, along with QF's BNE-HND which is also taxpayer funded.

[middleman]

Looks like the Queensland Taxpayer subsidies may have to be handed back to the Queensland Government if Bain aren't willing to go through the trouble of using their mentioned back-up plans (the 700s) for CNS-HND.

VHVBY is currently in Abu Dhabi for Heavy Check. I assume they will also be doing whatever is necessary to make the aircraft ready for these flights.

[Mr_App]

the 700s
Customers will be in for a rude shock.

8 hours in a rattling 18 year old -700, no IFE, no power, no USB, 30' seat pitch, 2 bathrooms, original Virgin Blue seats.

I mean, sign me up right now.

(in all seriousness surely they could not subject that horror to passengers)

[1A_Please]

Heard a rumour from a friend of a friends dog……..who heard it from the Townsville refuellers’ dog, that the IPO has been suspended whilst a certain ME carrier was looking into taking a very large share of VA. Please…please…please let’s not have history repeat itself, although last time Spaghetti was signing cheques his bank account\ego couldn’t afford…….

anyone else heard this? Mick, PoppaJo, Sunfish…..anyone…….
Sadly, it seems that the reason for the postponement of the IPO roadshow was the terminal illness of Jayne Hrdlicka's husband Jason Gaudin who has now passed away.

[tossbag]

Who the **** announces their partners death on linkedin? What a narccist, what a vile human she is.

[ebt]

Who the **** announces their partners death on linkedin? What a narccist, what a vile human she is.

Dude, take a chill pill. This would have been one of her comms team, and fair enough. In the current circumstances as they await an IPO all sorts of rubbish would swirl as to why she's not in the office if they didn't come out and say so. Like or loathe her, it's a hugely traumatic time for the family, so cut them some slack.

[Jack D. Ripper]

Dude, take a chill pill. This would have been one of her comms team, and fair enough. In the current circumstances as they await an IPO all sorts of rubbish would swirl as to why she's not in the office if they didn't come out and say so. Like or loathe her, it's a hugely traumatic time for the family, so cut them some slack.

Good call!

[tossbag]

Dude, no chill pill required, if I were any more chill I'd be in the middle of Melbourne in my jocks on a winters day.

This would have been one of her comms team

​​​​​​​I think not, it was her personal account in her words, vile, obnoxious person.

[anonfly]

Interesting announcement today that management has put forward to unions to enter early negotiations for the pilot body. Current EBA expires June 2024.

[DanV2]

Looks like Al Baker / Qatar indirectly hasn't exactly ruled out taking an equity stake in VA in the future, although there have been no formal discussions.

Paywall article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-03/qatar-airways-plans-for-future-without-first-class-on-long-haul#xj4y7vzkg

[Red69]

So over the road at QF, they have just had 2017 joiners awarded wide body FO slots. They have also had 2022 joiners awarded any narrow body base they want. There is progression and opportunity out there at every airline in Aus except for VA. The mind boggles why anyone would want to join VA at this point. It's only suitable if you want to be a career FO out of Sydney or Melbourne on a 737, working your ring off for just above award pay.

[Tommy Bahama]

Its been like that forever at the sheltered workshop. Captains couldnt bid back to be widebody FO's fast enough when they had 777's. If they ever get widebodys again it will be exaclty the same. Virgin is a career for the top of the seniorty list (as is their right) or the lucky few who get to milk the system ......anyone else is expected to sit there and STFU.

[43Inches]

So over the road at QF, they have just had 2017 joiners awarded wide body FO slots. They have also had 2022 joiners awarded any narrow body base they want. There is progression and opportunity out there at every airline in Aus except for VA. The mind boggles why anyone would want to join VA at this point. It's only suitable if you want to be a career FO out of Sydney or Melbourne on a 737, working your ring off for just above award pay.

So are you saying that I will get a faster narrow body command at QF (subsidiaries not included) in Sydney/Melbourne or Brisbane than at VA? Or are you just saying it would be a better place to be a career FO.

[morno]

So are you saying that I will get a faster narrow body command at QF (subsidiaries not included) in Sydney/Melbourne or Brisbane than at VA? Or are you just saying it would be a better place to be a career FO.

I think the most junior narrow body Captain at QF just awarded a slot is a 2007 join date. Make of that what you will.

[PoppaJo]

The sweet spot for new joining FOs was around 2006-08, that was seen across the board, including myself in another mob, was only 5 years. Some of my old colleagues who joined VA in 2011/12 are still waiting and they think still have another 5 years to wait.

When do quick upgrades return? Well it doesn’t appear anytime soon. Having a look at some data recently, 2030s onwards certainly look like things will move on a bit. The next generation of pilots, ie those getting a license in the coming years, will have pretty good careers with very little wait required.

Virgin Management’s incompetence has probably cost FOs about a decade unfortunately.

[Australopithecus]

I think the most junior narrow body Captain at QF just awarded a slot is a 2007 join date. Make of that what you will.

The time to command was always going to reduce because of the ~ten year gap between consecutive numbers (2008/2018) But it will blow out to 20+ years again. Also note that the QF shorthaul fleet is projected to shrink, so time to command will likely stretch way beyond the already unattractive two decades. In fact there may be some pilots who may never see a command, although it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. *

* Casey Stengel

[43Inches]

I mean are you better off going to Rex and building up the conditions, but having access to a very quick command, and therefore better earning potential in the long run. Or does being an FO for x many years to come still outstrip what the command will earn you at the other. 10+ years to command for me would be beyond my set retirement date and a paycut, so not that appealing, but I spose if you are young.

[Red69]

The time to command was always going to reduce because of the ~ten year gap between consecutive numbers (2008/2018) But it will blow out to 20+ years again. Also note that the QF shorthaul fleet is projected to shrink, so time to command will likely stretch way beyond the already unattractive two decades. In fact there may be some pilots who may never see a command, although it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. *

* Casey Stengel

While short haul is predicted to shrink, will long haul continue to expand and grow?

Atm it seems like a new joiner would have a faster command at QF than VA. Especially with 500+ pilots on the VA list who have the right to return if things miraculously improve and grow.

The only option VA have is to get the pay and lifestyle right and try and be like Southwest. Otherwise every other employer (including qf subsidiaries) will be a better option for career progression.

[Australopithecus]

There is no way at present to predict what the long haul fleet looks like in ten years. QF could really operate twice the number of aircraft on long haul when you consider destinations and frequency. The capex however to buy 26 widebody aircraft is ~13 Billion AUD at list price. That’s just to replace the A330 fleet, no expansion.

Obviously things will change at QF. Post Joyce, the board may decide to actually run an airline and hence commit big to lease a larger fleet. Equally, they may decide to continue to define the airline as a niche premium carrier and have a small fleet with a single daily presence in many markets and leave frequency to the competition on each route.

Right now the math suggests that a new hire in 2023 will have a 30 year wait to command. Assuming 30 shorthaul aircraft and 50 longhaul. Assuming less than a 3% attrition rate per year. (Because you have to consider the average pilot group size over the past 30 years) Assuming 11 captains per plane longhaul/ 8 per pland shorthaul.

QF have alluded to the A220 being the future of domestic travel. That aircraft is not a mainline job. The (so far uncertified) A321XLR is mooted as the replacement aircraft, but they have so far only committed to 20 to replace 74 737 NG aircraft.

If the fleet withers to 50+30 you can see that the total captain pool is 740 + C&T pilots. If QF loses 60 pilots/year (which it doesn’t right now), the time to get from number 2500* to 740 is 29 years. You can play with the numbers to see which fleet size scenario yields a reasonable time to promotion.

Factor in the next generation aircraft will be arriving about then, and there is no certainty that they will be two pilot aircraft, nor that discretionary air travel will be by then considered to be an acceptable carbon footprint.

* I think QF has 2500 pilots on the list, but that is an approximate number

[A320 Flyer]

QF have alluded to the A220 being the future of domestic travel. That aircraft is not a mainline job.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see A220s at short haul since NJS can’t handle the EIS or maintain the required crew to keep the aircraft they currently have.

[aussieflyboy]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see A220s at short haul since NJS can’t handle the EIS or maintain the required crew to keep the aircraft they currently have.

I think you’ll find that ship has sailed mate.

[A320 Flyer]

Let’s see….. there are discussions at high level happening I know that for sure

[Lapon]

Let’s see….. there are discussions at high level happening I know that for sure

Discussions won't change the fact that NJS crews are already in Canada doing endorsement training.

Undoubtedly mainline crews will be offered a secondment to NJS however, and despite the usual whine of subsidiary airlines cannibalizing mainline opportunities, there will no shortage of individuals taking up a temporary command spots and thus contributing to the very issue they complain about.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see A220s at short haul since NJS can’t handle the EIS or maintain the required crew to keep the aircraft they currently have.

As some people have suggested here, NJS will probably become the new SH at QF. I cannot see how QF hope to attract and maintain anyone when the current EBA is quickly becoming some of the worst narrow body T&C’s in the world. Australia is being left behind and QF will become a victim to its own corporate arrogance.

[Australopithecus]

Airdropping QF pilots into NJS command slots will of course be just the morale booster that is lacking over there. But yes, it’s the likely scenario. In fact I expect that the current recruitment drive is a cynical exercise in ensuring those aircraft get crewed with pilots handcuffed by a QF seniority number.

[PoppaJo]

How many at NJS hold a Virgin return ticket?

[morno]

Commands have already been offered to mainline FO’s and all of them rejected them. So next plan…

[dejapoo]

Commands have already been offered to mainline FO’s and all of them rejected them. So next plan…

Utter rubbish.

[Lapon]

Commands have already been offered to mainline FO’s and all of them rejected them. So next plan…

SO's.

[Australopithecus]

Well, that’s the rumour. But it might be a different story if given a choice between an involuntary redundancy or a leave of absence with a convenient NJS opportunity. Don’t forget that a pilot’s career aspirations and QF's interests are only ever coincidentally aligned.

[Servo]

Only on PPrune can a VA/Bain thread be hijacked into a Qantas thread. Sky gods just cant help it.

[dejapoo]

Only on PPrune can a VA/Bain thread be hijacked into a Qantas thread. Sky gods just cant help it.

Try sharing a cockpit with us! :} It's kultural...

[Poto]

Won’t be any CR at QF. Doesn’t gel well with the request to offshore NJS recruitment. One of the tests is that you have to prove money can’t get you locals. Stagnation while O/S labor sought! Yes. CR… No.

[Tabasco James]

Back to VA…..and how the latest news on renumeration from Bain is being received.

[TBM-Legend]

If VA want to succeed as a profitable business they should not fall again for the JB model of mimicking Qantas. The single type model with frequency works. Form good code shares and a good service level without any bells and whistles

[43Inches]

The Southwest model would have worked brilliantly for VA from the start. However it seems that Australian airlines and business in general have absolutely no concept of how to ensure staff are treated and remunerated appropriately to ensure happy customers and clients. There seems to be a complete lack of interest in any business model that would actually promote happy workers = happy customers and rewarding your valued hard working employees for being good at their job. All they seem to think is more hours and cheaper workforce wins the business wars... and of course ridiculously paid board members. Then wonder why the workers take as much cash as they can and then jump ship as soon as possible for better conditions.

Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.

[gordonfvckingramsay]

The Southwest model would have worked brilliantly for VA from the start. However it seems that Australian airlines and business in general have absolutely no concept of how to ensure staff are treated and remunerated appropriately to ensure happy customers and clients. There seems to be a complete lack of interest in any business model that would actually promote happy workers = happy customers and rewarding your valued hard working employees for being good at their job. All they seem to think is more hours and cheaper workforce wins the business wars... and of course ridiculously paid board members. Then wonder why the workers take as much cash as they can and then jump ship as soon as possible for better conditions.

Just imagine how much money you could save if you workforce actually loved working for you, from basic things like tire/brake wear reductions, to actual active management of route, altitude and speed to save fuel. Also they would stick around and want to work, so less call outs, less delays and cancellations, nice meaningful PAs, happier customers, more repeat custom. Suddenly by having a happy workforce your operating costs drop by 10-20% and passenger repeat custom increase 10-20%. But apparently it's all too hard for the brains trust running the show. And BTW, for the brains trust that think they can force anybody to do these things, good luck, pilots hate being told what to do, so try to force efficiencies on a group usually goes the opposite way with people actively going out of their way to make it not work. I've seen it over and over, and will continue to repeat as long as the workforce is unhappy.

Armies of one, thousands of them all across the industry. Meanwhile board members and management abscond with the profits for a so-called job well done.

[Jack D. Ripper]

30 year commands at QF
Too long to wait at VA…
Sounds like the current generation of effo’s need to either relax, take a chill pill or piss off elsewhere

[Ladloy]

30 year commands at QF
Too long to wait at VA…
Sounds like the current generation of effo’s need to either relax, take a chill pill or piss off elsewhere
I think a lot of them are pissing off. Read the room.

[Transition Layer]

30 year commands at QF
Too long to wait at VA…
Sounds like the current generation of effo’s need to either relax, take a chill pill or piss off elsewhere
As announced in last week’s Qantas training allocations.

Most Junior 737 Command SYD base 16 years in the company
Most Junior A330 Command PER base 22 years in the company

Sorry to let the truth get in the way of your story!

[tossbag]

Armies of one, thousands of them all across the industry.

​​​​​​​Yeah/Nah, doubt it.

[On Guard]

As announced in last week’s Qantas training allocations.

Most Junior 737 Command SYD base 16 years in the company
Most Junior A330 Command PER base 22 years in the company

Sorry to let the truth get in the way of your story!

What are widebody FOs running at out of interest?

[b787q300]

Back to VA…..and how the latest news on renumeration from Bain is being received.

Yes back to VA topic again, what’s this news on remuneration about?

[morno]

What are widebody FOs running at out of interest?

6 years at the moment according to the latest allocations.

[JPJP]

Airdropping QF pilots into NJS command slots will of course be just the morale booster that is lacking over there. But yes, it’s the likely scenario. In fact I expect that the current recruitment drive is a cynical exercise in ensuring those aircraft get crewed with pilots handcuffed by a QF seniority number.

I predict Alan will reprise his threat to outsource QF flying. This time it will be with shorthaul, with a spicy twist on his way out the door. His plan involves an all female group of Congolese Aka pygmies that are already in training at the ‘elite’ Qantas flight school. If shorhaul doesn’t bow to Alan’s will, he’ll have his greatest wish - pilots of lesser stature on even lower pay.

[PoppaJo]

They would if they could. Bonza tried outsourcing the whole training and operations department. Canberra said nope.

[Red69]

Back to VA. With the latest news around CAE being ‘paused’, why are pilots not walking off the job for this massive breach of the current eba? It seems like the company doesn’t have to uphold their end of the bargain yet pilots do? Pilots should work to contract or walk off the job until an appropriate and fair agreement is reached.

[Pastor of Muppets]

Back to VA. With the latest news around CAE being ‘paused’, why are pilots not walking off the job for this massive breach of the current eba? It seems like the company doesn’t have to uphold their end of the bargain yet pilots do? Pilots should work to contract or walk off the job until an appropriate and fair agreement is reached.

Because there was an event in a certain year where teeth were removed and pilots and their union became the root of all boardroom jokes. The unions don’t believe in the members and the members don’t believe in the unions.

Any hint of anything resembling action results in knee knocking and pant pissing. Pathetic.

[KRUSTY 34]

Apparently there are rumblings (nothing new there) with a growing number of pilots pushing to go back to the former EBA Terms and Conditions under a new wages deal!

Probably shouldn't have given them up in the first place?

[dejapoo]

I'm sure the top 50 names, PNG boys n the like VIPA bro's will look after their mates and screw the newbies at the bottom. How Australian!

[cloudsurfng]

I'm sure the top 50 names, PNG boys n the like VIPA bro's will look after their mates and screw the newbies at the bottom. How Australian!

how very boomer.

[Jack D. Ripper]

I thought VA went broke?

Owners got their money out now….so no risk in trashing them joint…I’m sure Alan needs a thousand s/o’s…

[dejapoo]

Thread drift.. whats with pilots wearing 2 bars at VA now? I see a pic of the first female pilot DL wearing 2 stripes online? Thanks

[snakeslugger]

“Under training” I believe.

[Icarus2001]

I see a pic of the first female pilot DL wearing 2 stripes online?

​​​​​​​First female for what?

[Tabasco James]

Rex eba voted up, does this make VA pilots the lowest paid 737 pilots?

[gordonfvckingramsay]

Rex eba voted up, does this make VA pilots the lowest paid 737 pilots?

No EBA should be voted up right now! The first ones to jump and VOTE yes will invariably end up at the bottom.

[PoppaJo]

Thread drift.. whats with pilots wearing 2 bars at VA now? I see a pic of the first female pilot DL wearing 2 stripes online? Thanks
I am fairly sure it is FOs under training. I know some ex Tiger 737 pilots both seats just gone back, with the two stripes. Bit strange considering many are already rated by the company with many hours already, but must be a VA thing.

[slice]

There was a massive F#CK UP some time ago(~last year). Since coming out of administration under Bain ownership everything in VA is completely under resourced. Especially in Crew control. An FO under training was paired with a non training Captain at very short notice (ie probably after sign on) and the FO just assumed they were with a training Captain. Anyway upon arrival after the 1st sector together the FO pulls out their training file and hands it to the Captain, much to his surprise 😳. Virgin’s mitigation for their utter administrative incompetence is to plant 2 stripes on FOs under training and for their first 100 hrs (or maybe sectors?) after check to line. In related news the 3rd attempt in a decade by Virgin to introduce a new crewing software system has just collapsed in a big steaming pile of fresh excrement. 🥹

[PoppaJo]

Since coming out of administration under Bain ownership everything in VA is completely under resourced.

I mean, you could say it’s all going to plan.

[Icarus2001]

Anyone?



I see a pic of the first female pilot DL wearing 2 stripes online?

First female for what?

[anonfly]

Back to VA. With the latest news around CAE being ‘paused’, why are pilots not walking off the job for this massive breach of the current eba? It seems like the company doesn’t have to uphold their end of the bargain yet pilots do? Pilots should work to contract or walk off the job until an appropriate and fair agreement is reached.

Technically not a breach as there are transitional rules in place. The 2021 EA didn’t come into play fully until CAE was delivered. It’s a mess

Now it’s a case of working under two EBA’s with candy being thrown out over peak periods of flying to get folks to turn up.
All that was achieved with the 2021 was a loss in base wage and a whole heap of headaches.
Casualisation of the workforce has gone down swimmingly.

[PoppaJo]

Anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deborah_Lawrie

[Icarus2001]

Thank you PoppaJo. Why back with two bars though? I did read what you wrote above.

[PoppaJo]

I find it a bit degrading considering these people have many thousands of hours on the type, previously worked for the same company, and many in the left seat. I worked for four employers with my current type rating, initial training was still 3 stripes.

Likely just a weird Virgin thingy. Comment 122 above sounds about right.

[43Inches]

It does seem fairly degrading, as 2 bars generally denoted low experienced cadets in the past, with 3+ for rated/experienced crew. I don't really care for the uniform in general, but the amount of bars generally tells other crew (who don't know you) and a lot of the general public, who will know their **** in an emergency and who to listen to. Anyone coming in with previous experience is going to know more than enough to be respected for that knowledge. I know walking around terminals in uniform with 4 bars you quite often get a quick nod/hello with a respectful 'captain' especially from the older folk.

Possibly could be corporate types trying to push a 'know your place (and paygrade)' type agenda. Dress someone down, make them feel less, so they ask for less.

[PoppaJo]

You’re right, it’s just a uniform, who cares, they are just pieces of material on the shoulder, yada yada. I mean, yeah I don’t care, but it’s just bizarre, that say a Tiger, VANZ 737 FO or Captain come back and need to wear that.

Perhaps once done training post the two stripes to Massimo’s mansion as a thanks for screwing everyone over. I think we all know a few who would tell them where to shove their two stripes haha.

[DUXNUTZ]

Two bars. Must have had a bunch in stock from cruise FO days on the tripler. That’s was a good exercise in hazing and making people feel inferior.

[belongamick]

They are apparently issuing jackets with two bars as well. After 100 hours of line experience and they get sent back for the third bar to be sewn on. You can't make this **** up.

[Jack D. Ripper]

Many airlines use 2 bars to denote lower experience and/or training (some even use 1 for training).

If 3 bars is so important, go back to ga

[43Inches]

Many airlines use 2 bars to denote lower experience and/or training (some even use 1 for training).

If 3 bars is so important, go back to ga

Ranks and bars are usually part of a companies way of saying you are worth more/less than somebody else, regardless of experience. As said above you introduce a 'lower' rank with lessor uniform and somhow you justify being on less pay. If you like GA wages in airline operations then accept degradations like this, or you can say stupid things like 'go back to GA' and dress down these experienced flyers even further, it's sad when it comes from fellow pilots.

It's also good to remember that there are only two legal definitions for an airline crew, PIC and everyone else is a co-pilot. Even line training of a new co-pilot (FO) is not considered instruction for a qualification. It's just company induction, the pilot training is fully qualified to fly the aircraft already as a copilot or PIC if holding a command endorsement. Ranks and bars are made up for paygrade control.

[PoppaJo]

Many airlines use 2 bars to denote lower experience and/or training (some even use 1 for training).

If 3 bars is so important, go back to ga

They do, SOs upgrading, cadets, those new to type, especially in Europe, all wear two bars.

But DL as above has how many hours? I mean she has been flying for as long as many of us have been alive. Two bars? Weird and not required.

So does a 777 Skipper returning need to wear two bars?

[Colonel_Klink]

Ranks and bars are usually part of a companies way of saying you are worth more/less than somebody else, regardless of experience. As said above you introduce a 'lower' rank with lessor uniform and somhow you justify being on less pay. If you like GA wages in airline operations then accept degradations like this, or you can say stupid things like 'go back to GA' and dress down these experienced flyers even further, it's sad when it comes from fellow pilots.

It's also good to remember that there are only two legal definitions for an airline crew, PIC and everyone else is a co-pilot. Even line training of a new co-pilot (FO) is not considered instruction for a qualification. It's just company induction, the pilot training is fully qualified to fly the aircraft already as a copilot or PIC if holding a command endorsement. Ranks and bars are made up for paygrade control.

Except every FO at Virgin is paid the same - regardless of time in Company or experience on type.

[43Inches]

Except every FO at Virgin is paid the same - regardless of time in Company or experience on type.

At the moment yes, but as was done before with crz FO that can quite easily change. Set the mind up for change by making them look different then pursue it in the EBA negotiations that they should be paid a training wage or not paid at all until checked (similar to Jet*). Management types already have a list of areas they can cut conditions based on what others do. After all they would have you pay for your training given the chance.

[Tommy Bahama]

Couldn’t care less how many bars are on the shoulder of anyone….on the other hand everyone knows the managers who should be turning up to work in clown suits.

[Pastor of Muppets]

Sorry Tommy, they don’t wear suits, they wear costumes.

[Tommy Bahama]

Sorry Tommy, they don’t wear suits, they wear costumes.
:D:D:D

[Icarus2001]

After 100 hours of line experience and they get sent back for the third bar to be sewn on. You can't make this **** up.

​​​​​​​So about six weeks after CTL. Brilliant.

[chookcooker]

Clearly sweating the small stuff I see.

[Chronic Snoozer]

Virgin Australia says passengers will not suffer service disruptions despite hundreds of the carrier’s licensed engineers gearing up to strike at airports across the country next week over pay and conditions.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/virgin-says-flights-on-track-despite-engineers-gearing-up-to-strike-20230623-p5dj0n.html

[MickG0105]

Virgin's FY23 financial statement has been filed with ASIC, and it is nothing to write home about.

With the lowest cost base they'll likely ever achieve, $129.1 million statutory profit from $5 billion in revenue, off of probably the best RASK we'll see for a while.

While Velocity revenue of $330 million off the back of a claimed 11.5 million members looks anaemic, the underlying EBIT of $77 million looks even more so.

And their balance sheet is underwater to the tune of $1.36 billion. That position is in a large part due to Bain recouping their $730 million in acquisition costs, funded by a combination of ratting $430 million from the business's cash reserves together with a $300 million loan. Yes, you have read that correctly - the business took on additional debt in the form of a $300 million bridge loan to partly fund the capital return to Bain. It's good to be the King.

And then there's the statement that ... the Group holds $420.2 million of flight credits that are currently due to expire by 31 December 2023.

The filing date of the report is 21 September and there were statements made by VA subsequently that the expiry of $120 million in COVID credits would be extended to 30 June 2025. That appears to leave $300 million in flight credits that have not been extended past 31 December 2023. Media outrage on that appears to be zero.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/731x1023/screenshot_20231010_211940_adobe_acrobat_d6399aceea97ffb8439 3cc45201260feaab975f4.jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/731x1032/screenshot_20231010_212054_adobe_acrobat_6a039ebc74ed34cedbd 066960615750574ad167f.jpg

[Jack D. Ripper]

In the glamour year of Aviation, the best VA can show up in is an Op shop hand me down.

Not looking good for the years ahead……

[Trevor the lover]

Wasted too much money on the pathetic and meaningless "WONDERFUL" campaign. Define wonderful in context of what it was before wonderful. I'd say exactly the same.

[Lead Balloon]

After the kicking Qantas got for trying to disappear 'flight credits' by imposing an 'expiry date', can Virgin get away with it?

[MickG0105]

In the glamour year of Aviation, the best VA can show up in is an Op shop hand me down.

Not looking good for the years ahead……
Given that domestic airlines have pocketed probably the easiest revenue they've enjoyed in recent history over the last year, and Virgin's cost base is as low as you're ever likely to see it, that the best they could do was a 6.7 percent margin on an underlying basis has got to be a concern. More so when you consider the amount of pain that has been inflicted on that business.

[PoppaJo]

Mick, the HS reported that H1 was $125m and H2 was $4m due to…

Airline insiders put the significantly smaller second half profit down to a “normalisation” of supply and demand, and a major workforce expansion.

Poor operating performance in the last half would be a big driver also, some of the worst performance this company has ever recorded was in the last half. No idea if they have fixed that issue.

[MickG0105]

Mick, the HS reported that H1 was $125m and H2 was $4m due to…



Poor operating performance in the last half would be a big driver also, some of the worst performance this company has ever recorded was in the last half. No idea if they have fixed that issue.
I thought that was very odd too and was trying to find Virgin's H1 actuals but I don't think that they are required to file them given they're not listed. A couple of factors likely apply:

H2 is traditionally the weaker half for revenue.
Some businesses don't fully account for all the abnormals and non-cash adjustments in their H1 accounts, rather they all tend to come home to roost in the final report.


Whichever way you slice or dice it, there is nothing compelling in those results. I have no doubt that QAN trading back above $5 is to a large extent because the market has noted that, for all the QF Group's troubles, they really don't have a strong competitor in the domestic market (not coincidentally, Rex is close to flatlining at sub-90 cents).

[PoppaJo]

H2 is weak but not that weak. You have three periods of school holidays in the half also. Seems to be a bit weird and certainly has me asking some questions if I was an investor. They acknowledged increased headcount costs, so perhaps it’s just a once off. We won’t likely see another H2 before a float.

Jetstar Domestic recorded about 50% of its profit in the half, Qantas was about 30% in the second half.

Any float would clearly be based on a H1. With the bridging loan due in May 2025, this half is likely the half. Finance Audit in Jan, Roadshows in Feb, public in May.

[ebt]

It's weird that their EBIT margin is only 8.8% compared to Qantas's 18% target which they reckon they can keep going for a while. Sure, oil is higher, but it seems that the cost benefits of the administration have not really brought unit costs down. Something is still broken here. The demand environment has probably never been better so they should be reaping more hay while the sun shines brightest. Unless things improve further down the line, potential IPO investors should be wary.

[PoppaJo]

Something is still broken here.

Hopefully they stay away from widebody ops. These numbers don’t entertain a new long haul investment one bit.

[43Inches]

Virgin has always struggled in H2. That's why they moved towards attracting business customers as leisure airlines always struggle in the down season from Feb to June, two weeks of school holidays won't prop up a balance sheet over 26 weeks. I think J* making good H2 profits is creative accounting at it's best... QF can have stable profits year round due to their commuter base and business custom, and everything else they have expanded into. And yes if they are still struggling despite the great Covid exhale/escape then next year will be a struggle, considering fuel is going up, leases and rates will be up and the competition for experienced crew has only just started to heat up.

Whichever way you slice or dice it, there is nothing compelling in those results. I have no doubt that QAN trading back above $5 is to a large extent because the market has noted that, for all the QF Group's troubles, they really don't have a strong competitor in the domestic market (not coincidentally, Rex is close to flatlining at sub-90 cents).

Very much depends in the fall out to the groups woes, financially they are fine for now. If the government really rears up to carve into it's effective monopoly of Australia it could be hard times for the group. I can't see them getting any tie ups or buy outs approved in the near future and the small possibility they are forced to offload some subsidiaries, which might finally see J* cut loose, as nothing else would sell for enough or do enough to change market share figures for them. At least then we would see how much mother props up it's silver baby.

[Icarus2001]

Behind a paywall...

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/virgin-australia-s-key-ipo-exec-resigns-20231017-p5ed1e?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1YKeLVcHwzZVb30-5aeRoXUEb5zlG0VXMaOHURnEVdMz_H0Wa8REsBPgM#Echobox=1697525024

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/virgin-australias-ipo-executive-david-marr-resigns-2023-10-17/

DAVID MARR manager of the IPO resigns.

[SHVC]

Maybe they don’t need an IPO, maybe they have an international buyer that wants Aussie access maybe one that was denied 22 WB slots.

[No Idea Either]

SVHC

That has been the crewmour since the beginning of the year, but we are yet to see any actual hard evidence…..

[Icarus2001]

We will not see any hard evidence right up to the moment it is announced. Private company, no ASX disclosure rules.

[markis10]

XFE finally left PER for KUL this afternoon, a long overdue end to their wide body “experiment”

[Stationair8]

IPO second quarter 2024, article in The Weekend Australian Business Section.