this true or not?

[mattpilot]

I just remembered the time when one of my ground instructors said to the entire class (group of 21 people), that statistically, 10% of all pilots will die doing what they love = flying. Meaning, 2 out of that class room will eventually die during a flight.

First i thought 10% wasn't that much, but when i realized that 2 people out of the current class will die flying, it made me think.

-----

The question to the pro's - is that a correct statistic or was he pulling something out of somewhere? :cool:

[Willit Run]

sounds a bit high to me, but i know about ten folks that have died flying planes, civilian flying, that is.

gravity isn't very forgiving!

[mattpilot]

thing to remember - thats 10% over a life time. For example, in that group of people, one might die after he got a PPL on his first solo-ppl flight. And another might die when he is 50 years old flying airliners.

I guess he(someone) arrived at this statistic by taking the total number of pilots, and dividing it by total number of pilots died in crashes. Then again, i could be wrong - what do i know about creating statistics :)


I'm just curious if others think this has more truth or more bull. And if its more bull, what do you think the actual number is?

[411A]

Personally know of four airline pilots that have been killed in older ex-WWII types, two after an extensive rebuild, both on the first flight.
Having the cash for these machines is not necessaraly good for ones' longevity.
OTOH, neither is getting out of bed in the morning.

[englishal]

Well, according to the NTSB's stats for 2001, there will be 1.22 fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours (US)...so amongst you 21 buddies, when you have each flown 4762 hour (GA hours) you can expect 1.22 of you to die (?)......or to put it another way, once you lot have 7806 hrs each, two will die. Assuming you fly 100 GA hours per year each, it will take 78 years to kill two of you. ..!

Just to go on about a few more statistics....The 4 biggest killers in order are: Loss of control, collision with terrain or water, collision with object and finally an encounter with weather (leading to one or more of above)....the most dangerous phases of flight from a fatality point of view are in order: Cruise, maneuvring, take off, approach, climb, landing and decent. It appears that landing is the most likely time you will crash, but it is also one of the least likely times to die...and finally, some food for thought. The root cause of fatal accidents, in order, can be attributed to: 1) Pilot 2) Environment and 3) aircraft problems.

Of course statistics are all very well, you could walk into someones prop tomorrow and be plastered all over the FBO!:D

Cheers
EA:)

[Baggy]

If you were in a groundschool for commercial training though - englishal's stats show that what you were told is probably right.

Englishal - so you reckon the most likely thing to kill you on board your flight is the pilot ! Thats quite an amusing thought !

[Field In Sight]

From what Englishal was saying. It is quite easy to not include yourself as one of the fatal statistics.
i.e. Don't lose control over land or water, avoid objects if at all possible and stay clear of weather.

Seriously though. I did read an article by Mr King (i.e. the guy that does all those very good American videos on flying along with his beautiful wife :eek:) that General aviation safety is normally compared with airline flying as being the safest form of transport.

Excuse my plucking of figures out of mid-air, but from what I remember, Mr king showed that GA flying was about 7 times more dangerous than driving on the roads. :(

However, it explains why my travel insurance premiums on flying holidays are a complete rip-off.

[englishal]

I think the main thing is to be well trained. What you also notice from the stats is that most accidents (for aeroplanes) and fatalities happen to occupants of single engine aircraft, though relitively few are related to power plant problems.....ME aircraft have a lower accident rate but a higher fatality rate, but the most dangerous of all, for accidents and fatalites are.........balloons believe it or not (4.11 fatalities per 100,000 flight hours), followed by gliders and then reciprocating rotorcraft.

Phew, makes interesting reading. From the looks of it, GA flying fatality rate is about 93 times scheduled U.S. air carriers operating under 14 CFR 121....

Aren't stats fun, now take the above, add a suitable helping of spin, and you can get a job with Tony's / George W's mob:)

Cheers
EA:D

[niknak]

Cobblers to statistics!

When it's your time to go, you will go, there's nothing you can do about it, so why worry?

[mattpilot]

i aint worrying :) Just wondering if that statistic is true

I already had my fair share of near-death experiences :cool:

[Genghis the Engineer]

Well if you consider it as the UK GA stats, which is one fatality per 70,000 hrs...

Assume an average flying life of 30 years, 70,000 / 30 = 2,333.

For a 10% chance of dieing flying GA, the probability has to be 0.1

0.1 x 2,333 is 233.


So, it's true, if you only fly GA, have a 30 year flying career, and expect to average 233 hours per year through your career.

Airline safety is much better than that, and very few GA pilots manager 230+ hrs per year, so I think the figure you were given is wrong. It probably was, say, 30 years ago - and these figures do tend to do the rounds for a long time before anybody corrects them.

G

[mattpilot]

thanks for all your opinions!

[Volume]

If you are a pilot and want to reduce the possibility of dying in a plane, just start smoking. 1 out of 4 smokers will die because of this, so it is much more likely for smoking pilots to get killed by a cigarette instead of an aeroplane :D

[Notso Fantastic]

As far as full term careers go, looking at the College of Air Training, Hamble statistics dating back to the 60s, I recall calculating that according to the Professional Pilot statistics up until then, about 10% of us should expect to buy it in a flying accident at some stage in our careers (1 per 30,000 hours). Of the hundreds of us who trained in that sustained period, only a couple I can think of died in airline accidents. Several more than that in private GA accidents, and several in suicides. Many courses of 24+ cadets have not experienced any fatalities at all (over 30 years). Flying has increased in safety immensely- better professional training and well designed equipment. It's the roads that are dangerous! The estimation of 10% is now totally out of date- I would think 1% was nearer (in a whole career). This does NOT apply to military/especially carrier landings!

[canberra]

i think that bloke was right if it was a military course. i saw an article in air clues on pilot deaths, it showed a picture of a wings course at chivenor. approx half (thats right half) were killed in aircraft accidents, bit of a sobering staistic.