hargreaves99
6th Mar 2023, 16:55
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Ftravel%2Fnews%2F why-pilot-shortage-make-holidays-expensive%2F
Why your holidays are about to get more expensive
Pilots are getting older, retiring earlier and there are not enough young recruits – meaning a shortage that will cost you
By Sophie Dickinson
6 March 2023 • 12:00pm
With fuel costs, environmental taxes and inflation on the march, and the economic impact of the pandemic still being felt, airfares are already spiralling. In January, The Telegraph reported that average ticket prices had soared by 44.1 per cent – the sharpest rise since records began. But another, less reported problem is threatening to make holidays even more expensive in the coming years.
A report from the aviation consultancy OAG has revealed that significant pilot shortages are likely to hamper the industry over the next decade, with attempts to mitigate the issue looking certain to further push up fares.
What is causing the crisis? Put simply, pilots are getting older, retiring earlier, and not enough young recruits are coming through the ranks. Today, more than 60 per cent of airline pilots around the world are over the age of 40, with the prospect of hanging up their stripes on the horizon. By contrast, only around 10 per cent are between the ages of 20 and 30.
Exacerbating the problem is the industry’s typical recruiting strategy. Airlines, with their extremely tight profit margins, can’t afford to employ a large stable of pilots. They keep a bare minimum on their books, leaving them susceptible to external factors.
Rapid growth
John Grant, the Executive Vice President of OAG, believes there are many reasons why the shortage is emerging now. “It’s partly driven by the pandemic and people of a certain age – as they are in many other professions – saying they don’t want to go back to work,” he says. “We’re also seeing a rapid growth in aviation demand around the world, with airlines literally unable to recruit fast enough.”
He estimated that there will be a worldwide shortage of around 55,000 pilots within the next 10 years. Airlines appear spooked, and many have fast-tracked new measures to attract a younger workforce, including the introduction of new pilot training funds and facilities.
Emirates, for example, has invested in new state-of-the-art simulators and increased its training capacity by 50 per cent. Significant investments such as this costs money, of course, with passengers, one way or another, in line to pick up the tab.
Short-term solutions
Southwest Airlines has gone further, with aspiring pilots now needing just 500 hours of flying time on jets or turboprop aircraft to sign up, down from 1,000.
“This is clearly designed as a short-term solution,” says Grant, referring to the Southwest changes. “It’s important to recognise that those pilots are not going to be let loose on an aircraft without completing all of the necessary training, the hours in the simulator and everything else that’s necessary before they go online – there won’t be a danger to passengers. But there may be a situation where Southwest’s pilots are training new recruits, and they may not be able to operate a full flying schedule while they’re doing that.”
The burden, then, may not just be financial: customers could notice a reduced schedule, too. After years of aviation chaos, it seems like another hurdle is emerging for those attempting to travel by air.
Retention is evidently a key issue for the industry. “Recruitment is extremely expensive, with the cost of training a new pilot many thousands of pounds,” says Grant. “So the last thing you want to do is have a revolving-door culture.”
High earnings
As such, there has been a raft of salary increases. Delta pilots recently negotiated a 30 per cent pay rise over the next four years. Hawaiian Airlines has approved a 33 per cent increase.
The average pilot salary in the UK is currently around £54,000, rising to around £150,000 for the top earners – but these figures are expected to increase, and the impact will be felt on ticket prices. “There’s a lot of leverage for improving terms and conditions right now,” says John Grant. “It’s a very good time to be a pilot.”
The exact amount added to ticket prices will likely depend on negotiations between pilots and airlines in the coming years. When spread across the entire schedule, it will likely appear small – but John Grant thinks consumers shouldn’t ignore it. “When you add up all these little incremental increases, families who are going on holiday will really feel the difference. Perhaps it’s only £30 per person, but multiply that by four and you’ve got a significant price change.”
One thing is clear: the age of the ultra-low-cost flight is over. Gone are the £7 jaunts to Malaga. Even Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary, though predicting that customers would cut back on other luxuries before holidays, recently declared the end of extremely cheap airfares. Aviation’s pilot crisis is just another nail in the coffin.
Why your holidays are about to get more expensive
Pilots are getting older, retiring earlier and there are not enough young recruits – meaning a shortage that will cost you
By Sophie Dickinson
6 March 2023 • 12:00pm
With fuel costs, environmental taxes and inflation on the march, and the economic impact of the pandemic still being felt, airfares are already spiralling. In January, The Telegraph reported that average ticket prices had soared by 44.1 per cent – the sharpest rise since records began. But another, less reported problem is threatening to make holidays even more expensive in the coming years.
A report from the aviation consultancy OAG has revealed that significant pilot shortages are likely to hamper the industry over the next decade, with attempts to mitigate the issue looking certain to further push up fares.
What is causing the crisis? Put simply, pilots are getting older, retiring earlier, and not enough young recruits are coming through the ranks. Today, more than 60 per cent of airline pilots around the world are over the age of 40, with the prospect of hanging up their stripes on the horizon. By contrast, only around 10 per cent are between the ages of 20 and 30.
Exacerbating the problem is the industry’s typical recruiting strategy. Airlines, with their extremely tight profit margins, can’t afford to employ a large stable of pilots. They keep a bare minimum on their books, leaving them susceptible to external factors.
Rapid growth
John Grant, the Executive Vice President of OAG, believes there are many reasons why the shortage is emerging now. “It’s partly driven by the pandemic and people of a certain age – as they are in many other professions – saying they don’t want to go back to work,” he says. “We’re also seeing a rapid growth in aviation demand around the world, with airlines literally unable to recruit fast enough.”
He estimated that there will be a worldwide shortage of around 55,000 pilots within the next 10 years. Airlines appear spooked, and many have fast-tracked new measures to attract a younger workforce, including the introduction of new pilot training funds and facilities.
Emirates, for example, has invested in new state-of-the-art simulators and increased its training capacity by 50 per cent. Significant investments such as this costs money, of course, with passengers, one way or another, in line to pick up the tab.
Short-term solutions
Southwest Airlines has gone further, with aspiring pilots now needing just 500 hours of flying time on jets or turboprop aircraft to sign up, down from 1,000.
“This is clearly designed as a short-term solution,” says Grant, referring to the Southwest changes. “It’s important to recognise that those pilots are not going to be let loose on an aircraft without completing all of the necessary training, the hours in the simulator and everything else that’s necessary before they go online – there won’t be a danger to passengers. But there may be a situation where Southwest’s pilots are training new recruits, and they may not be able to operate a full flying schedule while they’re doing that.”
The burden, then, may not just be financial: customers could notice a reduced schedule, too. After years of aviation chaos, it seems like another hurdle is emerging for those attempting to travel by air.
Retention is evidently a key issue for the industry. “Recruitment is extremely expensive, with the cost of training a new pilot many thousands of pounds,” says Grant. “So the last thing you want to do is have a revolving-door culture.”
High earnings
As such, there has been a raft of salary increases. Delta pilots recently negotiated a 30 per cent pay rise over the next four years. Hawaiian Airlines has approved a 33 per cent increase.
The average pilot salary in the UK is currently around £54,000, rising to around £150,000 for the top earners – but these figures are expected to increase, and the impact will be felt on ticket prices. “There’s a lot of leverage for improving terms and conditions right now,” says John Grant. “It’s a very good time to be a pilot.”
The exact amount added to ticket prices will likely depend on negotiations between pilots and airlines in the coming years. When spread across the entire schedule, it will likely appear small – but John Grant thinks consumers shouldn’t ignore it. “When you add up all these little incremental increases, families who are going on holiday will really feel the difference. Perhaps it’s only £30 per person, but multiply that by four and you’ve got a significant price change.”
One thing is clear: the age of the ultra-low-cost flight is over. Gone are the £7 jaunts to Malaga. Even Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary, though predicting that customers would cut back on other luxuries before holidays, recently declared the end of extremely cheap airfares. Aviation’s pilot crisis is just another nail in the coffin.