Bonza has its AOC

[Mk1Aviation]

So it’s official! Bonza has now got its AOC…

Let’s place bets!

Will they stand the test of rough economic times and lead the way in LCC operations?

Place your bets!

[bazza stub]

Do we have anything else in australia?

[dragon man]

Media release: Purple seal of approval: Bonza achieves its licence to fly
Bonza (https://www.flybonza.com/), Australia’s only independent low-cost carrier, has been granted its Air Operator Certificate (AOC) from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA). The airline is now finalising its preparations to go on sale with its first wave of flights out of the airline’s home base on the Sunshine Coast.
Bonza has been working collaboratively with the regulator as it works towards connecting communities by gradually introducing its initial route map of 17 destinations and 27 routes - 93% of which are not currently served by any other airline and 96% of which currently have no low-cost carrier.
“This is an historic moment for Australian aviation as we get ready to launch the first high capacity airline in more than 15 years, and the country’s only independent low cost carrier,” said Tim Jordan, CEO of Bonza.
“The excitement for what we are about to deliver is palpable and the timing couldn’t be better. Demand for domestic travel is high and Aussies deserve for travel to be a basic right for many, not a luxury for the few. This has never been truer with today’s cost of living challenges. With the approval from CASA, 2023 is set to be the year of seeing more of your own backyard for less,” added Jordan.
Bonza will soon go on sale with its Sunshine Coast base followed by its Melbourne base. Jordan urges Aussies to download the Fly Bonza app and sign up to be the first to know when its initial phase of flights will be up for grabs.
The airline’s digital approach means the app will be the only place to book with the exception of registered local travel agents. A digital support centre will assist customers with queries or those who choose to get support with making their booking.
“I’d like to thank our team of legends who have worked very hard to achieve today’s milestone working alongside CASA who do incredibly important work regulating Australian aviation. Now, our focus turns to connecting communities and we hope to see many Aussies onboard soon,” added Jordan.
ENDS.


The best of luck to them. May they give Qantas a bloody nose.

[SHVC]

And then one breakdown out at tamworth and greyhound buses all the lax to sunny coast.

[PoppaJo]

As long as they don’t outsource the safety department to another country like the previous mob did, and completely ignore any communication from the regulator, they should be fine.

CASA will be watching closely. Cannot have another repeat re the pussycat mess. If standards fall, boxes are not being ticked, then I hope they take appropriate action.

That aside, congratulations, and go give it to Jetstar who need a wake up call at the moment.

[Lead Balloon]

Congratulations to Bonza. My prediction of March was evidently too pessimistic.

[Mk1Aviation]

Congratulations to Bonza. My prediction of March was evidently too pessimistic.

you were close tho, so good work!

[Boe787]

One wishes them well….but whilst a good idea….wrong aeroplane…..cheap E190s ala Alliance might have worked.

[SHVC]

As long as they don’t outsource the safety department to another country like the previous mob did, and completely ignore any communication from the regulator, they should be fine.


Well at $50 a ticket I think they will struggle to get maintenance done in Australia.

[deja vu]

Well at $50 a ticket I think they will struggle to get maintenance done in Australia.
Time to end the myth that maintenance done in Australia is somehow superior to numerous other places.

[Australopithecus]

They wouldn’t need to charge only $50 given how high fares are currently. I wish them well. We and our customers could certainly use the competition.

[Deano969]

So it’s official! Bonza has now got its AOC…

Let’s place bets!

Will they stand the test of rough economic times and lead the way in LCC operations?

Place your bets!

A few of their thinner routes may struggle unless they use MCY as a hub and spoke
My 2 cents is that they will quickly move onto routes that JQ ply on the holiday market OOL CNS BNK etc

[cLeArIcE]

Wish them all the best, especially those who end up working for them. Aus does not need another airline in it's graveyard.
My mob (JQ) is an absolute embarrassment at the moment. Hopefully for everyone's sake this experiment works. A huge wake up call is needed.

[Mk1Aviation]

Has anyone got an idea of how many sectors they intend flying the max’s on per day? Will they try for 8?

Flybondi, a 737-8ng LCC in Argentina, push their planes to the limit, up to 10 flights per day in an economically harsh environment.. they get by … just

[rodney rude]

SHVC - Jesus you're a doomer mate. Have a look at all your posts, you have nothing positive to say about anything or anyone. So Bonza get an AOC and your first post is negative. Thank Christ I don't have to drink piss with you mate

[SHVC]

I don’t give two $hits if Bonza succeeds to tell you the truth, were my post negative not really just statements. If one does break down then it’s the grey hound bus no recovery options am I wrong? Ppl like to bag QF, JQ and VA out however if one goes U/S or gets canned there is recovery which is something Bonza won’t have and same as another start up getting around with 73s.

Im awesome to drink with ppl like me I’m just blunt, to the point and I don’t make everything fluffy when it’s not. Bonza is not fluffy.

secondly- I never said Australian maintenance was superior, just stated they would struggle to get it in Australia for $50 tickets, we all know the cost of operating in Australia and labor ain’t cheap.

[Mr_App]

I don't blame anyone for being skeptical. Tiger lost $1 billion across 13 years.

[Ollie Onion]

Good luck to them.

[Transition Layer]

Any of you cobbers know what they are paying the blokes and sheilas up the front?

[Track5milefinal]

Two fifths of **** all I would guess!

[Alice Kiwican]

Any of you cobbers know what they are paying the blokes and sheilas up the front?

Rumour I heard was Bonza Capt on $200k

[Mk1Aviation]

Im awesome to drink with ppl like me I’m just blunt, to the point and I don’t make everything fluffy when it’s not. Bonza is not fluffy.

I’ll have a beer with you mate.


Company with the contract for Bonzas maintenance in Melbourne is paying up to 170k for LAMEs and paying for the type courses

[Deano969]

And then one breakdown out at tamworth and greyhound buses all the lax to sunny coast.

FYI Shazza VH-UJT is their back up aircraft, so don't worry about Greyhound.......

[ROH111]

I found;

“Bonza Tipping Competition”

on Facebook. Put down your predicted last day of operation, win the prize.

[SHVC]

FYI Shazza VH-UJT is their back up aircraft, so don't worry about Greyhound.......

So operating 27 routes off the bat as they have said with 2 aircraft leaving 1 spare. I’d hate to be those crew.

[rodney rude]

SHVC - fair enough mate, but Plleeeeaaase, don't tell me about VA and recovery. I have been stuffed around so many times in the last 12 months by this outfit with cancelled flights, obsenely late flights, and bags arriving 3 days late. Recovery???????????? Not that mob mate. No offense at all intended to the the crews.

And now that Bonza looks up and running I suppose we can now be expected to be bored by Popa Joe counting loads again. Spare ,me.

[Deano969]

So operating 27 routes off the bat as they have said with 2 aircraft leaving 1 spare. I’d hate to be those crew.

There is a fourth due shortly

[Deano969]

SHVC - fair enough mate, but Plleeeeaaase, don't tell me about VA and recovery. I have been stuffed around so many times in the last 12 months by this outfit with cancelled flights, obsenely late flights, and bags arriving 3 days late. Recovery???????????? Not that mob mate. No offense at all intended to the the crews.

And now that Bonza looks up and running I suppose we can now be expected to be bored by Popa Joe counting loads again. Spare ,me.

LOL Poppa has given up counting loads on REX which should now be very simple 168 168 168 168

[PoppaJo]

Rod. I was calling out Sharpie’s bull**** as did many others, coming out daily claiming his operation was doing fantastic, Alan and co better all watch out. Remember the bit when he said you and me, pilots at the opposition, are all just overpaid with too many entitlements, with plans to ‘rip away those entitlement’s you pilots have built up over the years’. The prick needed to be called out. His operation was doing terrible, and to this day remains the worst performing upstart the country has seen.

Anyway, the market pulled back capacity, the others crashed operationally (still are) , Rexy sold their arses out to travel agents, demand boomed, and things have now improved. Don’t forget, when the capacity comes back in, Rex gets burnt.

I don’t believe Bonza Management carry the same blood type as Rex. Seems to be a proper airline. While the route map is questionable, the market is different vs 2019 and might be able to take it at the moment. I wish them well, I just don’t want a repeat re Tiger. Started off great, then Ken left, wheels fell off, place went to ****.

[Deano969]

Don’t forget, when the capacity comes back in, Rex gets burnt.

I'll bet ya anything that's not going to happen Poppa

[Global Aviator]

BONZA mate, how good, that’s the spirit up and running despite the negativity from self proclaimed aviation experts.

Given it a crack with Shaza and Bazza.

May you continue to expand and grow, it is great for Straya.

[B772]

AOC granted too close to Friday the 13th for my liking !

[Visual_Approach]

I found;

“Bonza Tipping Competition”

on Facebook. Put down your predicted last day of operation, win the prize.
March 20th

[pinkpanther1]

March 20th

It's pretty sad people are taking bets on failures of a company, The loss of jobs of staff and the lack of competition in the workforce.

A rising tide lifts all ships. Having more employment opportunities in AUS is only a good thing - if anything it makes our current employers work harder to keep and entice us.

I hope they do well! And shame on everyone who is hoping for their demise.

[Mr_App]

I hope they do well! And shame on everyone who is hoping for their demise.
Perhaps they are the smart ones though. Perhaps they are not.

However...who remembers Ozjet, Strategic, Air Australia, Skyairworld, Jetgo, Tiger Airways? Why it this outfit so different?

[Mk1Aviation]

And now that Bonza looks up and running I suppose we can now be expected to be bored by Popa Joe counting loads again. Spare ,me.


hahaha!! Can’t wait! “53 pax Avalon - Gold Coast…there just not going to make it… Dan needs to stop subsidising these flights”

[Ollie Onion]

I hope they do well, a very risky time to be launching a holiday destination focussed airline when the economy is tanking.

[Icarus2001]

In what way is the economy tanking?

[Bend alot]

In what way is the economy tanking?
Interest Rate 0.25% - 3.25% and predicted to rise, Wage growth stagnation, The Big 2 states property price falls, Elon only lost a few Billion, Power/food/fuel record highs.

All is good.

[Ollie Onion]

In what way is the economy tanking?


Interest rates high and rising, record inflation, shortage of workers, property prices falling and the IMF predicting world wide recession. The way the inflations gets under control is by making people hurt financially so they stop spending, they will stop spending on things like ‘holidays’. But hey it could all turn out well, we just don’t know.

[Icarus2001]

Suggest not using Avgas in a 737.

They did not say $50 tickets. Pay attention. They said around $50 per hour flight time.

Well done and good luck. We need more pressure in the job market and passengers deserve a choice.

[Icarus2001]

Interest Rate 0.25% - 3.25% and predicted to rise, Wage growth stagnation, The Big 2 states property price falls, Elon only lost a few Billion, Power/food/fuel record highs.


If interest rates had dropped to their current level the media would be telling us how good the low rates are.
Property prices dropping from a record high period is not a tanked economy.
Household bills are high, again not tanking.
Elon Musk lost value on shares he owns, he has not lost money. Even if he had what does that have to do with the Australian economy ranking?

Bonza are entering a busy market when the incumbents are not providing a good service for a reasonable price.

Good luck to them.

[Mr_App]

Fixed rates really start falling away in June, estimated rates 3.85-4%. It won't be just Bonza feeling the pinch. Rex would be wise to start signing some corporate contracts before the tsunami hits.

Is some early data out that retail sales are trending backwards. That then generally flows over to leisure airline travel. People need to start belt tightening, stop the spending and start saving. Relief for home owners is likely still 18-24 months away.

Market aside, Bonza would have budgeted losses for the first few years so I doubt they are too worried, they know they are in red ink first up regardless. The others are now comfortable as mentioned above, charging unreasonable prices for poor quality service, while exectutives are upgrading KPIs and laughing all the way to the bank while pax luggage goes walkabouts. They need to be held to account for that.

[galdian]

If interest rates had dropped to their current level the media would be telling us how good the low rates are.
Property prices dropping from a record high period is not a tanked economy.
Household bills are high, again not tanking.
Elon Musk lost value on shares he owns, he has not lost money. Even if he had what does that have to do with the Australian economy ranking?

Bonza are entering a busy market when the incumbents are not providing a good service for a reasonable price.

Good luck to them.

Bonza are not entering the "golden triangle" market where 99.9% of the traveling public reside so they are not entering the incumbent market, fringe market more accurate.
Their COMMERCIAL propositions make most people ask "just how bat**** crazy are they, big jet on thin,thin routes..." which I think is a fair question, CoolAid drinkers may disagree.

Congrats on the AOC, where they are in 6-12 months, and on what routes, will be interesting to see.
Have to wonder if there's a far, far, far bigger "picture" they envisage now that they are a legally entitled airline.

Cheers

[airdualbleedfault]

Perhaps they are the smart ones though. Perhaps they are not.

However...who remembers Ozjet, Strategic, Air Australia, Skyairworld, Jetgo, Tiger Airways? Why it this outfit so different?
You left out Compass 1 and 2 and another one that I can't remember the name of that didn't actually get airborne. Of course, the most famous one is Ansett which by all reports went under only a few weeks before VA were going to

[airdualbleedfault]

So it’s official! Bonza has now got its AOC…

Let’s place bets!

Will they stand the test of rough economic times and lead the way in LCC operations?

Place your bets!
I've got them at 12 months from 1st revenue flight :bored:

[Icarus2001]

Have to wonder if there's a far, far, far bigger "picture" they envisage now that they are a legally entitled airline.

I wonder the same. There is more to this for 777 than the leisure market on thin routes.

[Mk1Aviation]

I've got them at 12 months from 1st revenue flight :bored:

12 months is good.. My bet is August 2024… any takers?

777 partners should have stuck to Flair Airlines in Canada.

Before all you keyboard knights in shining armour pile in on me for bagging Bonza out… they really don’t have a business model that’s any different to those that have been tried in the past. They’re just launching from a different base. Then look at the flights from Melbourne… Mildura, Port Macquarie, Tamworth on a 737 max 8 up to 3 times a week … come on

[74world]

Bonza will be interesting to watch.
Ryanair’s business model without millions of customers and the subsidies they get from councils ……wow ! What a gamble..

also QF will be watching closely their profitable routes (if any), then most probably have Alliance’s aircrafts on those sectors.

anyway, good luck to Bonza. 👍

[Global Aviator]

As I said many posts ago I would not be surprised if the business model changes.

Fact is they now have the max that can fly to Bali without that pesky fuel stop when conditions are not perfect and don’t need to offload pax or bags.

Yes many more hoops to jump through but I still see Bonza as the perfect aircraft for Bali.

[Deano969]

Bonza will be interesting to watch.
QF will be watching closely their profitable routes (if any), then most probably have Alliance’s aircrafts on those sectors.
anyway, good luck to Bonza. 👍

So here is the thing
We can compare 1 announced route MEL-MCY
Best current fare I can find is $133 JQ
Bonza stated $50 per hour right
Not knowing if this is time in the air or gate to gate....

Gate to gate approx. 2 hours 20 minutes for $116 on AB
So around 12% cheaper
Time in the air would be significantly less than this however

Would JQ be able to sustain, not just matching, but bettering this price long term?
Would even QQ/QF be able to get a return at this level on say Mildura to Maroochydore?
Would the $50 per hour on AB be just the promo fare for the first, say 60 seats, then incrementally increasing or for the whole flight?
Would JQ or QQ/QF match if AB sold every ticket at $50 per hour?

[Mr_App]

Deano your wrong. QF and JQ won't do a thing.

They will just let it die on its own. Just pull up a chair, sit back, and just let it implode.

[74world]

Deano your wrong. QF and JQ won't do a thing.

They will just let it die on its own. Just pull up a chair, sit back, and just let it implode.

correct, but only if it doesn’t work.
if a miracle happens, and some sectors were profitable, then JQ or AA would jump into it…..and why not ? 😎
the QF group doesn’t care who or where they fly, they only want to make money.

[topend3]

you were close tho, so good work!


Is March then when they run out of money ? Haha

[Hothighhungover]

Fantastic news….Well done Bonza!

What all the armchair warriors said wouldn’t happen has just happened….oh well back to flight sim and bagging Rex for them I guess.

Looking forward to seeing you on the Tasman and flying domestic in NZ.

[PPRuNeUser01531]

Bonza will do OK. Due long lead in time from first whisper to AOC issue people have become aware and interested in the possibility of this airline actually existing. 777 Partners will be relying on creating marketing strategies to entice first time flyers to climb aboard Shazza. Keep it simple and straightforward Bonza and your aircraft will push back full.

[Deano969]

Fantastic news….Well done Bonza!

What all the armchair warriors said wouldn’t happen has just happened….oh well back to flight sim and bagging Rex for them I guess.

Looking forward to seeing you on the Tasman and flying domestic in NZ.

Just on that
Yes AB could fly to NZ, but that's about it for international
So why is it that a foreign company or airline can set up in Australia and fly domestic, but can not fly international?
It actually does not make any sense.....
It's well known that domestic operations is where QF makes most of it's money, yet someone like SQ could set up in Australia and compete with no issues
Yet
SQ can not fly, for example Sydney to Hong Kong non stop, however they can compete 1 stop
Same with the ME3 to Europe

So if AB wanted to have a crack at Asia as an ULCC, why should they not be able to
Would it not be better to have an Oz based and Oz crewed ULCC operating into Asia even though some profits end up overseas rather than leave it to foreign owned, based and crewed carriers?

[Chris2303]

Just on that
Yes AB could fly to NZ, but that's about it for international
So why is it that a foreign company or airline can set up in Australia and fly domestic, but can not fly international?

Bilaterals perhaps?

[Bend alot]

If interest rates had dropped to their current level the media would be telling us how good the low rates are.
Property prices dropping from a record high period is not a tanked economy.
Household bills are high, again not tanking.
Elon Musk lost value on shares he owns, he has not lost money. Even if he had what does that have to do with the Australian economy ranking?

Bonza are entering a busy market when the incumbents are not providing a good service for a reasonable price.

Good luck to them.
Media told us the vax would stop us catching & spreading!! Most of you believed that (and still believe it works).
They only ever drop from record highs - never seen 1 drop from a record low (ever!!!!)
I am OLD & never ever seen such high food/fuel/basics increases even when the 1st Gulf war started & fuel went thru the roof.
Elon & the rest correctly do NOT HAVE MONEY - but much of all our SUPA is in the stocks - so the Australia link just for you.

Many will get very hurt very soon - but obviously it is not the economy tanking but the fact we still use gas stoves.

[TBM-Legend]

Bilaterals perhaps?



Why doesn’t Australia require Australian participation in airline ownership?

Canada Flair has 51% Canadian ownership and majority Board members Canadian citizens.

why would we support and wet our pants over a 100 % foreign mob?

[PoppaJo]

They are not a threat that’s why. They all turn up and fall over. Who can remember Lion Air Australia, they planned on teaming up with Sky Air World. Lasted about 5 minutes.

The day these players are a threat is the day Alan will start whinging about those foreign ownership rules. Otherwise they all just sit back and watch these investors come in and depart soon after.

The only carrier that could ever make it work here and become a threat to the others would be Air Asia Australia. The boss at that place said Tiger was on drugs when it started its operation here. He is the smartest in the room. The trick to success is to stay away.

[Bend alot]

Why doesn’t Australia require Australian participation in airline ownership?

Canada Flair has 51% Canadian ownership and majority Board members Canadian citizens.

why would we support and wet our pants over a 100 % foreign mob?
Adios Amigos - Bring the new Irish/Gay person with great consideration for staff and their freedoms & rights - Things are so much better for staff & customers & baggie's (illegally sacked)

But we still support him.

[markis10]

There is a fourth due shortly

‘There will only be three at MCY, rest are heading to Melbourne with at least two delivered albeit in storage.

[Dehavillanddriver]

Underestimate Bonza at your peril,

The Chairman is one of, if not, the smartest people I know. 777p have, from what I can gather from the press and interwebs, a global strategy covering all sorts of things not just LCC's - football clubs for instance.

They own their own aircraft (777p not Bonza) but Bonza are wholly owned by 777p so make of that what you may.

Will it succeed? honestly dont know. They deserve to - they have a good, intelligent and more importantly capable and coherent team. - and no I dont work for them but know people who do.

I honestly dont know what Bain are up to with VA, I spent 20 years there and morale is the lowest I have ever seen it. people are leaving to go to atlas, national, kallitta and others dont be surprised in american mainline opens up to e3's.

qantas - really no association with them - the A220 and 320/1 NEO projects look interesting and will provide significant opex savings but service is the key - best aeroplanes in the world crewed by people who dont provide the service means nought (I dont know if this is the case with qantas just a comment)

there are a few others that have recently gotten sked pax air transport part 121 aoc's - whether anything will amount of their one aeroplane remains to be seen.

All I am saying is that these are our colleagues - wish them the best and lets hope that their employer doesnt go tits up - as having lived through that in 2020 it sucks the big weinie.

For once I think we, as an industry, would do well supporting our colleagues, even from other businesses, rather than wishing them ill. It does us no credit to wish unemployment and family crises on our colleagues

[Mr_App]

You can't blame people for being skeptical, harsh criticism is expected. Those who sign up to new start ups with questionable business plans, need to bear some responsibility also if it gets messy.

Whilst I think many would want to support the good people, many are clearly skeptics looking back at the last 20 years. A whole heap of players have come and gone, how many are still here today? A 737 from Newcastle to Wellcamp hardly fills everyone with confidence.

[B772]

I am surprised Bonza flights are not on sale and there has been no announcement about the date of the first flight. "You do not get a second opportunity to make a first impression"

[Bend alot]

I am surprised Bonza flights are not on sale and there has been no announcement about the date of the first flight. "You do not get a second opportunity to make a first impression"
Do not sell till you can provide!

CAsA held ALL cards till just now.

So only 1 week and you expect flights to depart?

Only fly when when you can supply a service you are happy with.

ALL 3 in OZ just now have shzt service - win on supply on the expected service, not the current crap of the airline (yes you) supplying high cost crap to the customers.

Many of you are part of the problem

[Lead Balloon]

Part of the shzt service is the result of shzt airports. How will Bonza get around that? (Genuine question: I have no insight into how shztty the airports Bonza will be using are.)

[SHVC]

F!&k me, everyone thinks Bonza is the savior to Aviation in Australia, these guys will be no better at anything then already established operators. Wake up it’s a ULCC they will be just moving bogans or bogan from point A to B losing bags and canceling flights.
I actually feel sorry for the pilots that feel they have to work at this mob I bet it’s not their first choice, they’re on less money than the Rex jet op I bet.

[Bend alot]

F!&k me, everyone thinks Bonza is the savior to Aviation in Australia, these guys will be no better at anything then already established operators. Wake up it’s a ULCC they will be just moving bogans or bogan from point A to B losing bags and canceling flights.
I actually feel sorry for the pilots that feel they have to work at this mob I bet it’s not their first choice, they’re on less money than the Rex jet op I bet.
Source Please.

[rodney rude]

Onya SHVC, another first class, quality, vitriol laced post. Keep it up doomer.

[Deano969]

1st route announced MCY-PPP by end of this month

[Mr_App]

1st route announced MCY-PPP by end of this month
Tourism Data has that market around 20k passenger movements per year, that is taking into account only the Sunshine Coast + Whitsunday catchment. I don't think it's overly necessary to include any Brisbane catchment, they have a low cost daily option + 2 non-lcc options on the route which will suck up that catchment. But, if you combine both BNE and MCY catchments, Bonza will only hold a 14% market share. Parking your car a the airport for a week, will cost you $70 per week more if you park at the Sunshine Coast, further pushing away any Brisbane catchment opportunities.

Bonza will need to heavily stimulate the market for that route to become viable, they are offering 29016 seats per year. Forecasting a ULCC CASK 9c, EBIT margin 10%, they would need to charge $295 per seat to make budget, going off current traffic that does not drive, take into account these intrastate routes are very 4WD/SUV trips. Assuming they can stimulate the market, 90% LF, 9% Margin, $110 Fare is required. Stimulating will also require burning margin, so will be a challenge charging such fares.

This route will certainly pose a challenge for Bonza with such a dense aircraft. Stimulating any market like this required lower fares and likely negative EBIT.

The same challenges appear on a few other routes, Toowoomba-Whitsunday Coast very similar in the data without boring everyone. However, the most concerning and challenging is the some intrastate Rockhampton proposed routes. Most require very very significant market stimulation, the traffic does not overly exist at the moment, that is the past data only, unknown how Bonza will stimulate these regions. The question is, how long does Bonza wait burning margin trying to stimulate a market.

[SHVC]

Seems like that $50 per hr looking a little tight.

[Global Aviator]

Wouldn’t be surprised if Bonza’s plans change fairly quickly.

Many said tell him he’s dreamin love, but now have a Captain Cook at the AOC.

Ya can’t deny their aircraft are the ducks nutz!

Before ya know it youse blokes and Sheila’s gunna be flying to Sidney.

Shazza and Bazza gunna be busy, when will Brucey, Kazza, Billy and Rhonda join the fleet?

[Deano969]

Forget your $110 fare
I read somewhere $59
You can travel with Ryanair London to Athens for a bit over $40 (2400km) so is $59 lossmaking ?
Likely depends if they charge more as the plane fills

[Mr_App]

I think what was meant when they stated "$50 an hour" was base fare without baggage, card feed, food, legroom, change fees, no shows, oversize fees, and so on.

So your $50 "per hour" plus ancillary charges, the fare doubles once the flight is done.

One quarter of Jetstar's revenue is ancillary. Intra QLD however, greater % is carry on. If everyone checks in a bag = 5k revenue. If they don't, then your margin is squeezed.

You can travel with Ryanair London to Athens for a bit over $40 (2400km) so is $59 lossmaking ?
But how many people fly for $40 with no ancillary charges? It's a few %. Ryanair's average fare is more than 2.5 that, thanks to ancillary.

[topend3]

So, you get a $59 fare from MCY-PPP, then you get there and spend $3k on a hired 4WD for a week....be cheaper to just drive in the first place, and you can take all your **** with you :)

[HappyBandit]

F!&k me, everyone thinks Bonza is the savior to Aviation in Australia, these guys will be no better at anything then already established operators. Wake up it’s a ULCC they will be just moving bogans or bogan from point A to B losing bags and canceling flights.I actually feel sorry for the pilots that feel they have to work at this mob I bet it’s not their first choice, they’re on less money than the Rex jet op I bet. ​​​​​​​what salary are they offering?

[SHVC]

I have no idea, I just wrote “I bet” your guess is as good as mine.

[mates rates]

Why would you start operating now?From the end of summer school holidays to Easter is the worst time for airline passenger travel.People have their summer credit cards to pay off,not to mention the new interest rate payments kicking in and the cost of living increases.It’s going to be a tough gig in the current environment.

[Icarus2001]

Because they did not choose when to commence operations, that was determined by CASA and their “processes” as to when the AOC was issued.

Are you suggesting that now they have an AOC they should wait a few months?

Most new businesses are going to lose money for the first few years anyway, what’s the difference when they start.

Have you tried booking a flight lately?

[Deano969]

Why would you start operating now?From the end of summer school holidays to Easter is the worst time for airline passenger travel.People have their summer credit cards to pay off,not to mention the new interest rate payments kicking in and the cost of living increases.It’s going to be a tough gig in the current environment.

Perfect time to start right now
A good chance to iron out any bugs prior to Easter
Especially as they are likely paying stall, rent, leasing etc with no income and you suggest that continues for another couple of months ?

[brokenagain]

So first flight is in 11 days, just after school holidays ends, and they haven’t started selling seats yet.

[SHVC]

Their route structure is mental, there is a bigger play here what that is is anyone’s guess. Their first flight and subsequent flights for a few weeks will surely be full of travel agents and anyone else who wants a free burn up to PPP and Rocky. 777 seem prepared to loose a billion or two out of this, I’d like to see the playbook inside the boardroom. Keeping their promise to the Aussie ppl won’t be easy.

[Wizofoz]

Perfect time to start right now
A good chance to iron out any bugs prior to Easter
Especially as they are likely paying stall, rent, leasing etc with no income and you suggest that continues for another couple of months ?
Jet fuel isn't free. Flying empty aircraft is more expensive than NOT flying empty aircraft,

[neville_nobody]

Jet fuel isn't free. Flying empty aircraft is more expensive than NOT flying empty aircraft,

But think of all the fuel savings and environmental benefits of flying empty.

[Deano969]

Jet fuel isn't free. Flying empty aircraft is more expensive than NOT flying empty aircraft,

So what do you suggest Mr Negative

Just keep the birds on the ground?

You can bet your last dollar the first few of months will be choccas......
What with media, PR peeps, flight reviewers, QF staff checking things out
And of course travers waiting for the launch to get their cheap seats

So many on here are just so negative....

777 have a bit if experience with Flair with fares regularly under $50 and sales as low as $9
Granted you can book on a website with Flair, but I'd reckon Bonza will eventually go back to this booking option

Do you not agree that with sub $100 fares, Bonza may very well stimulate travel from regions to the Sunny Coast and beyond?
3-4 day cheap getaways....
And for all those experts that say the 737 MAX is to big, a smaller bird simply can't generate the revenue for this LCC model to succeed
A 100 seater still has similar operating costs but too few seats to be viable at $50 fares

Whilst I concede that a few regional pairs may not perform to Bonzas expectations, I'd reckon that quite a few will

I think that many on here don't understand that the Sunny coast has a large percentage of people that have relocated from interstate and not just Sydney or Melbourne and Sunny Coasters heading off for family reunions both south and north will make up a fair percentage of Bonzas passengers
Add to this, non stop to these regional destinations from Brisbane (yes 1 hour drive to MCY) will also be enticing given the fares on offer
1/3 the price and and a 1 hour drive
Verses
2-3 hour connections at Sydney
So that's another market ripe to be tapped

AB IMO will likely expand into other routes such as OOL CNS BNK and more AVV mid term and long term to SWA

I reckon they have JQ firmly in their sights..............

[Mr_App]

Whilst I concede that a few regional pairs may not perform to Bonzas expectations, I'd reckon that quite a few will
Likely that will be the case.

Some of these markets will be getting capacity like they have never seen before.

Tamworth (2019) 189,000 passengers. Bonza adding 78,000 seats per year.
Wellcamp (2019) 120,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 155,000 seats per year :eek:
Mildura (2019) 254,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 97,000 seats per year.
Rockhampton (2019) 712,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 213,000 seats per year.
Sunshine Coast 1.2m....Bonza adding 750k seats.

Many of these regional areas have actually being going backward in the last decade with passenger numbers. Some of these areas have had heavy passenger drops within the last decade: Mackay -25%, Townsville FLAT, Gladstone -40%, Rockhampton -20%, Mildura FLAT, Newcastle FLAT, Albury -5%.

A few regional areas which have grown over the last decade are Cairns (+20%), Hobart (+20%), Byron (+30%), Proserpine (+40%)

I think Cairns is a missed opportunity for Bonza, certainly is a very popular centre especially with Chinese tourists. Should have done a base up that way, traffic numbers look quite good once you dive into the data. Tiger had about 800,000 seats per year at its peak into Cairns, similar number to what Bonza are adding to the Sunshine Coast market.

[No Idea Either]

Well, I reckon sunny coast ATC and airport management better get their arse into gear. Should’ve built that complete parallel taxiway. We held at Alpha the other day whilst a VA flight was passing through 5000’. Took them just under 4 minutes to land. We were ready at the holding point but sat there twiddling our thumbs whilst they stooged in to land. When cleared to enter and backtrack, took us just on a minute to roll down and turn around ready to go, VA still would have been about 7-10 miles out. 1 movement every 5 minutes is going to be very painful, for everyone, not just Bonza. They did depart a king air whilst we were backtracking though, perhaps favouring the locals at our expense!!!!!

[Bend alot]

Likely that will be the case.

Some of these markets will be getting capacity like they have never seen before.

Tamworth (2019) 189,000 passengers. Bonza adding 78,000 seats per year.
Wellcamp (2019) 120,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 155,000 seats per year :eek:
Mildura (2019) 254,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 97,000 seats per year.
Rockhampton (2019) 712,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 213,000 seats per year.
Sunshine Coast 1.2m....Bonza adding 750k seats.

Many of these regional areas have actually being going backward in the last decade with passenger numbers. Some of these areas have had heavy passenger drops within the last decade: Mackay -25%, Townsville FLAT, Gladstone -40%, Rockhampton -20%, Mildura FLAT, Newcastle FLAT, Albury -5%.

A few regional areas which have grown over the last decade are Cairns (+20%), Hobart (+20%), Byron (+30%), Proserpine (+40%)

I think Cairns is a missed opportunity for Bonza, certainly is a very popular centre especially with Chinese tourists. Should have done a base up that way, traffic numbers look quite good once you dive into the data. Tiger had about 800,000 seats per year at its peak into Cairns, similar number to what Bonza are adding to the Sunshine Coast market.
I/We just want a plane to get us there, sorta on time (within 30 mins) with bags & without a mortgage!
Or a real Full Service domestic.

Currently we have = Zimbabwe Air at twice the price of a private jet charter.

Hope they get a shot at it.

[Wizofoz]

You can bet your last dollar the first few of months will be choccas......


Deal- shall we say $200? "Choccas"- let's say 80% load factor average for the first two months?

[Wizofoz]

Likely that will be the case.

Some of these markets will be getting capacity like they have never seen before.

Tamworth (2019) 189,000 passengers. Bonza adding 78,000 seats per year.
Wellcamp (2019) 120,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 155,000 seats per year :eek:
Mildura (2019) 254,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 97,000 seats per year.
Rockhampton (2019) 712,000 passengers. Bonza is adding 213,000 seats per year.
Sunshine Coast 1.2m....Bonza adding 750k seats.

Many of these regional areas have actually being going backward in the last decade with passenger numbers. Some of these areas have had heavy passenger drops within the last decade: Mackay -25%, Townsville FLAT, Gladstone -40%, Rockhampton -20%, Mildura FLAT, Newcastle FLAT, Albury -5%.

A few regional areas which have grown over the last decade are Cairns (+20%), Hobart (+20%), Byron (+30%), Proserpine (+40%)

I think Cairns is a missed opportunity for Bonza, certainly is a very popular centre especially with Chinese tourists. Should have done a base up that way, traffic numbers look quite good once you dive into the data. Tiger had about 800,000 seats per year at its peak into Cairns, similar number to what Bonza are adding to the Sunshine Coast market.

And you are missing an important point- where are those markets TO.
Tamworth- 70% to SYD, 30% BNE- very little to Melbourne. So unless they get 100% of BNE pax willing to go MCY...
Wellcamp- Qlink to Sydney. There is no market to MCY and won't be much to MEL.
Rocky-BNE- you get the picture.

[Mr_App]

The inaugural route will likely be a tough one in the short term. In the next 30 days they need to fill 4,500 seats between the two inaugural cities, going off the start date mentioned above which is just over a week away. February I predict will be very very empty across its network. Most people would already have plans in place for next month, many return to work/school, but I don't know who the traveller is they are going for. Hiring a car at PPP is $1000 a week at the moment. 4WD is mostly sold out.

I guess Bonza cannot sit around until Easter waiting for the demand and time to bank some bookings, I assume they are paying all the staff sitting around doing nothing might as well use the downtime in demand getting in operational routine. At least when Easter/Hols arrive they will be ready to go with heavier patronage after 2 months of bedding ops in.

Wiz, yes the numbers in the current data is to existing cities on other non Bonza carriers, Bonza has told us they are not about taking market share from others, but creating new markets, driving new demand/pulling people from cars etc. I get the point from the Bonza boss, but he cannot control the pricing around Car Hire and Hotels, Car Hire is just off the charts in some areas, $1000 a week. Cheaper to drive, which is completely against the Bonza model and why they are here. The logic is that these seats will essentially just add on to the current seat count at these airpots as mentioned above, I think that is a hard ask. The numbers still seem too excessive for those markets, assuming they are not stealing pax from the others.

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

Sunny Coasters heading off for family reunions both south and north will make up a fair percentage of Bonzas passengers
But people don't do that every day. And then only to where Bonza flies? Because if they need to go anywhere else, they can just go via Brissie. Relying on very discretionary travel in a very price sensitive market is asking for trouble imo. To establish a viable route you need consistant travel. How many people have a need to go between Milidura and Sunny Coast (or anywhere else for that matter) often enough?

[PoppaJo]

I was waiting for a statistical response from our good friend Dr Tony Webber, alas it has arrived. (https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/bonza-new-lowcost-australian-airline-tipped-to-struggle-in-untested-regional-markets-according-to-aviation-expert/news-story/b9b059698183fee68786b070bde121de?amp&nk=c1c8f93049ece9a0630b35d6c86aa460-1674272457)

Why is everyone ignoring the numbers? Let’s just look past these low xx numbers and just assume the best, hope for the best, and expect nothing else. That is the approach they seem to be taking.

It would be great if such a route network could work. It will one day, just not today.

[Icarus2001]

The article is behind a paywall.

Opinions are like a clitoris.

[PoppaJo]

The article is behind a paywall.

Opinions are like a clitoris.

I want them to do well also, you’re right Icarus, passengers need choice, serious competition is needed to keep the others in check, more options for Pilots and so on.

I want to sit back and back them, but I just can’t get over how poor the data is here. I can’t back this business plan.

When 777 pulls out Plan B and C. Then perhaps us skeptics might. The tagline ‘here for Allstralia’ indicates that they are hellbent on sticking to this plan and not joining the others in city runs. I still think the investor here has other things planned. When this regional plan fails, they are not going to just pack up and head home.

[Deano969]

We saw what QF and AN threw at any new entrant in the 80s and 90s, teaming up and repeatedly bludgeoning upstarts into submission
East West
Compass 1 & 2
Impulse
Etc
Now its REX
Well QF had a good go, but has run into it's own problems

So should Bonza go down the same road?
We can all agree that AB has a much larger agenda here, look at Flair who is doing City pairs

AB seems to have come in with a different game plan

1) Get up and running under the radar
For the most part AB's initial routes are keeping away from anything QF/JQ and VA are servicing
Allowing them to build a fleet and workforce with income that, whilst likely won't see them in the black, it will fund most of their development costs

2) Creep over to more viable routes
Some pairs may do well, some ok and a few fail
They will also have more birds coming regularly
MCY-MEL will be full and as some regional routes fail, expect the frequency on this route grow
This will be the first sign of things to come

3) The gloves are off
MEL-OOL will launch first followed by Cairns, Ballina, Newcastle and Coffs
A rotation may look something like MEL-OOL-MQL-OOL-MEL so they can still say saving Allstralya
This may happen as early as Q4 2023

4) SWA
I don't think AB will ever be in SYD and they will wait until SWA opens
At tis point they will be 20-30 frames and established enough to compete on the triangle
I would not be surprised if Melbourne was predominantly operated via AVV and MEB and Brisbane via OOL and MCY with limited "premium" services to BNE and MEL

I reckon this would be a much better way to get up and running over the last bunch of attempts

[Dehavillanddriver]

Think that you have done a good analysis Deano.
Aviation is a fickle mistress so what will actually happen is anyone's guess but 777p have some smart people and I cant see them just chucking cash into a hole.

[Mr_App]

777p have some smart people and I cant see them just chucking cash into a hole.

Didn't Singapore Airlines do that in 2007?


It sounds like everyone wants Bonza to work. But it seems like everyone here is trying to find other ways for Bonza to become viable, which is not what they have told us over and over and over, they are wanting to do. The one issue with operating to your plan Deono, is the Bonza commercial director was asked about profitability, she said that they can't operate on other established routes re challenges trying to make profit due competition. She is correct on that front, how much profit did Tiger ever make? Check out the results when they had some stability mid last decade, still didn't make any cash. Was always a dead duck.


The irony is, the Bonza commercial director, cut Tiger's regional routes back in the day, to Rockhampton, Mackay, and Alice Springs when she arrived from Easyjet, and started more city routes.

[Deano969]

If the issue with City pairs is competition stifling profitability I would have to strongly disagree
With the likes of Flair (777 partners) Southwest and Ryanair happy to be selling seats at less than $50 regularly I would think that JQ would not match or undercut this long term

Need to understand that legacy, LCC and ULCC all have some similar costing like leasing, fuel, crew, maintenance and taxes
Then there the other stuff that can produce cost reductions
Back end staff, management, agents, advertising, fleet utilization and airport fees

As a clean sheet airline, they don't have to deal with old work place agreements either, keeping their costs lean and their planes full should give them a competitive edge over JQ, who arguably have not made a profit since inception

[Icarus2001]

With the likes of Flair (777 partners) Southwest and Ryanair…

1. Look at their catchment, the population base available to them. Europe 749 million people. USA 332 million people. London alone is around 14 million people, half the Australian population.

2. Ryanair uses secondary airports to reduce costs. Girona for Barcelona, Stanstead for London, Beauvais for Paris etc. I do not know about the other two.


Neither of these points apply in the Australian market. Tony Fernandez spoke wise words about entering the Australian market.

[Deano969]

1. Look at their catchment, the population base available to them. Europe 749 million people. USA 332 million people. London alone is around 14 million people, half the Australian population.

2. Ryanair uses secondary airports to reduce costs. Girona for Barcelona, Stanstead for London, Beauvais for Paris etc. I do not know about the other two.


Neither of these points apply in the Australian market. Tony Fernandez spoke wise words about entering the Australian market.

1) The catchment is not as relevant as you may think
One example a 5 x daily verses a 3 x weekly, if the flights are still full, does this really matter?
European and American LCCs all do plenty of sub daily pairs along with multi daily pairs
Plus European carriers are also competing with Fast Rail, better highway networks and shorter distances

2) Secondary Airports
MCY, OOL, WTB, NTL, SWA, MEB and AVV
I reckon these qualify...

[Icarus2001]

One example a 5 x daily verses a 3 x weekly, if the flights are still full, does this really matter?

Yes it does.

To keep it simple say they make $1000 on each flight. Your example is the difference between $3000 a week profit and $35,000 a week profit.
Which profit metric would you prefer to be managing?

My secondary airports comment is in relation to people suggesting “they should” change their model to city pairs.

By SWA do you mean SWZ? Since it is not built yet we should probably leave that out.

[PoppaJo]

I don’t think much has changed either.

AirAsia’s Fernandes claims Tiger on drugs for starting Aussie operation

​​​​​​​AirAsia chief executive Tony Fernandes says his rival, Tiger Airways, must have been "on drugs" when it decided to set up a domestic airline in Australia and says he has no plans to do the same.

However, the outspoken head of Jetstar's new alliance partner said he planned to increase the number of routes AirAsia flew out of Australia and hoped to launch Sydney services within six months.

"Am I going to come up and set up AirAsia Australia? No. Tiger is on drugs doing it," Mr Fernandes told The Australian Financial Review.

"You (Tiger) are sitting on a market of a billion people and you go and put half your capacity in a market of 24 million which has two pretty strong airlines; it doesn't make sense to me."

Singapore-based Tiger Airways yesterday launched a $S273 million ($214 million) initial public offering. It set up a domestic airline in Australia in 2007.

AirAsia operates a Perth-Bali service and its low-cost offshoot, AirAsia X, flies between Kuala Lumpur and Melbourne and the Gold Coast.

Mr Fernandes said he hoped to eventually be flying to Adelaide and Darwin. He expected to launch Sydney in six months after a long-running battle with the Malaysian government to get permission for a service into NSW.

"We are very bullish about the Australian market," he said. "Sydney is definitely six months away if we get all the rights approved. We think we have just got started. There is a whole lot of market we can achieve over the next number of years.

"We believe we can do many other points. Australians who have generally just gone to Bali are discovering Asia in a big way."

Mr Fernandes also revealed former Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon had approached him in the past about buying AirAsia, something the Malaysian carrier was not keen on at the time.

"Geoff was a very acquisitive man and I think he would have loved to have bought AirAsia to be honest," Mr Fernandes said.

"We were not ready to be bought and we were not ready to report to anyone else."

Publicly listed AirAsia is Asia's biggest low-cost airline and has grown rapidly since it was set up eight years ago. It flies a fleet of mainly Airbus A320 aircraft from bases in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. Qantas rival Virgin Group owns a stake in AirAsia's spin-off, AirAsia X.

Mr Fernandes, who wears a red baseball cap and has been dubbed the Asian Richard Branson, said the "sky is the limit" in terms of his alliance with Jetstar and did not rule out a merger of AirAsia and Jetstar in the future, although nothing was on the table at the moment.

"If it made sense why not?" he said.

"On paper, if you say Jetstar is very strong in Australia, we are very strong in Asia.

"Jetstar is struggling in Asia, whatever those boys say . . .

"I ain't going to set up AirAsia Australia, so you could have a very strong Australian-Asian alliance which has always been talked about . . . these kind of things make sense."

[Servo]

If the issue with City pairs is competition stifling profitability I would have to strongly disagree
With the likes of Flair (777 partners) Southwest and Ryanair happy to be selling seats at less than $50 regularly I would think that JQ would not match or undercut this long term

Need to understand that legacy, LCC and ULCC all have some similar costing like leasing, fuel, crew, maintenance and taxes
Then there the other stuff that can produce cost reductions
Back end staff, management, agents, advertising, fleet utilization and airport fees

As a clean sheet airline, they don't have to deal with old work place agreements either, keeping their costs lean and their planes full should give them a competitive edge over JQ, who arguably have not made a profit since inception

Great let's lower conditions in this country even further. You are either management or an idiot for suggesting that pay and conditions stagnate or reduce in this industry. Sigh.

[Deano969]

Great let's lower conditions in this country even further. You are either management or an idiot for suggesting that pay and conditions stagnate or reduce in this industry. Sigh.

Where did I say anything regarding lower pay or conditions?
I was saying
1) AB lean AB would not need as many back end staff or management
2) They would not be saddled with staff on old awards, they would be hiring against the new awards or EBAs that QF/JQ and VA are currently paying new hires

QF have somewhere like 26,000 workers for 124 or so mainline or 240 odd group (not including JQ) TBH I have not dug deep enough to get an accurate number as outsourcing, Link, Freighters, Network, JQ, QQ etc hide the true numbers
That said
80-100 workers per bird would be a reasonable estimate
I can't see AB having anywhere near this number, likely more around 40-50
This will be a significant saving that QF/JQ won't get anywhere near

[Deano969]

Yes it does.

To keep it simple say they make $1000 on each flight. Your example is the difference between $3000 a week profit and $35,000 a week profit.
Which profit metric would you prefer to be managing?

My secondary airports comment is in relation to people suggesting “they should” change their model to city pairs.

By SWA do you mean SWZ? Since it is not built yet we should probably leave that out.

Very poor comparison
You are assuming that that 1 aircraft flies just 3 sectors per week

[Icarus2001]

No I did not assume that. Read it again. Like I said keep it simple. The point is obvious.

How about we give them six months of operation before we declare them incompetent fools?

[Mr_App]

Got cold feet?

[TBM-Legend]

And you are missing an important point- where are those markets TO.
Tamworth- 70% to SYD, 30% BNE- very little to Melbourne. So unless they get 100% of BNE pax willing to go MCY...
Wellcamp- Qlink to Sydney. There is no market to MCY and won't be much to MEL.
Rocky-BNE- you get the picture.

Link has reasonable loads on the SAAB between Tamworth and BNE but nothing like 737 load of course.

[Hamley]

2) Secondary Airports
MCY, OOL, WTB, NTL, SWA, MEB and AVV
I reckon these qualify...

If I lived in Sydney I wouldn’t drive to Newcastle to catch a flight to somewhere. Where will I park my car and how much will that cost? Also driving two hours to get there?

I would pay a bit extra and fly from SY

[PoppaJo]

Westgate to Avalon is only 35-40 mins, Harbour Bridge to Newcastle is 2-2.5hrs. Fancy a 5 hour roundtrip to save 50 bucks? You would be surprised the amount of people who live/holiday closer to NTL vs SYD yet still use SYD. Just like the xx amount of people who drive past Avalon on the way to Tullamarine. A Secondary airport will only work in Australia if it's right in the thick of it, that being a metro population zone. Avalon has been a failure, sadly the Victorian taxpayers are funding 10 years of Jetstar losses (and Andrews propping up old mate Fox- that is a whole thread in itself) to keep it going until later this decade.

Bonza might have some luck using MCY as a more secondary option to BNE for those situation between the two, but they will need frequency to make it work. Daily or Twice a day. 2-3 a week just doesn't cut it, and they will continue to drive to the major cities instead. Getting stranded due cancellations, delays will become a issue, just ask all those Avalon passengers who get cancelled flights and pushed to Tullamarine.

[Zinfandel]

MCY is never going to be a secondary airport for BNE. This morning there was a crash on the gateway southbound near the Deagon Deviation at 0730am…drive from Sunny coast down was 1:55. Return drive at 1600, another crash northbound also near the Deagon Deviation= 2:10 drive home to the Sunny Coast. These delays/long drive times happen at least 3 times a week.
It’s approximately 100 km from MCY airport to the center of BNE and the regular commuters allow 2 hours for the drive.

[alphacentauri]

I would pay a bit extra and fly from SY

But how much extra? I'll give you an example.....in early Sept 22 a one way ticket from Canberra to Brisbane was ~$400-500....or I could catch the bus to Sydney for $50 and fly with Rex for $150. Thats $200-$300 saving for 3 hours of my time. The Murrays buses from Canberra are choka block full most days and they leave every hour and drop you right out the front of DOM/INT at Syd.

Point being, there is a price point where people will travel via other options. If there was a cheap and regular bus service to NTL and you could save $200-300 every time you flew.....you would go to NTL.

[apacau]

Isn’t the first flight supposed to be 31 Jan? Not long to fill an aircraft if tickets aren’t yet on sale (granted it may be mainly filled with pollies, airline, airport and tourism officials). Perhaps the 31st flight is a one off with the rest to commence further down the track?

[Deano969]

MCY is never going to be a secondary airport for BNE. This morning there was a crash on the gateway southbound near the Deagon Deviation at 0730am…drive from Sunny coast down was 1:55. Return drive at 1600, another crash northbound also near the Deagon Deviation= 2:10 drive home to the Sunny Coast. These delays/long drive times happen at least 3 times a week.
It’s approximately 100 km from MCY airport to the center of BNE and the regular commuters allow 2 hours for the drive.

Say (for example) you wanted to fly from Brisbane to Mildura
Even with an accident on the Bruce, it would still be Quicker and cheaper with Bonza direct via Maroochydore
And 1/2 your trip won't be bouncing around in a Q400

As far as demand goes
740 seats per week Albury to Brisbane $296 one way in a dash 8 a tad less with a stop (4 x 737)
290 seats per week Wagga to Brisbane $291 one way in a dash 8 a tad less with a stop (1.5 x 737)

From this I can extrapolate the below
Brisbane to Mildura
QF $367 for 4 1/2 hours
REX $278 for 4 1/2 hours
Return is about the same
And this is the quickest, many other options blow out to 7+ hours

Bonza would be little over $100.00 for 2 hours + allow 2 hours drive to MCY and say $30 fuel

So for a Brisbane based single passenger
$734 QF return
$556 ZL return
$250 AB return

Family of 4
$2936 QF
$2224 ZL
$900 AB

Minimum saving $1324

Plus save a minimum of 30 minutes each way with bad traffic and no chance of luggage missing the transfer

So there re both time and financial savings to be had for those from Brisbane wanting to go to some of these regional ports

[Zinfandel]

Jetstar have airfares next week from SYD to MCY for as low as $71 dollars.

[Deano969]

Jetstar have airfares next week from SYD to MCY for as low as $71 dollars.

And ?

[Zinfandel]

And ?
Means JQ/QF will continue to drop their airfares on all routes out of MCY so the cost comparisons you quoted are not valid.

2 weeks ago JQ had fares from MCY to MEL for $120.

[mates rates]

It’s off season from now to Easter,that’s why the fares are cheap.They can’t fill an aircraft.😆

[Deano969]

Means JQ/QF will continue to drop their airfares on all routes out of MCY so the cost comparisons you quoted are not valid.

2 weeks ago JQ had fares from MCY to MEL for $120.

Really?
So when did JQ start flying to Mildura?

My point was comparing Brisbane residents traveling to Sunny Coast to take a direct flight to Mildura
If you are arguing that JQ drops fares to Sydney, all good, but still more expensive to book through QF from MCY to MQL including JQ metal to SYD than from Brisbane anyway....

[TBM-Legend]

Really?
So when did JQ start flying to Mildura?

My point was comparing Brisbane residents traveling to Sunny Coast to take a direct flight to Mildura
If you are arguing that JQ drops fares to Sydney, all good, but still more expensive to book through QF from MCY to MQL including JQ metal to SYD than from Brisbane anyway....


you leave out convenience. Daily flights via Sydney with QF vs a very much reduced schedule with Bonza.

most people don’t just buy on price and MCY is not near Brisbane anymore than NTL is near SYD or WTB is neat BNE

[Deano969]

you leave out convenience. Daily flights via Sydney with QF vs a very much reduced schedule with Bonza.

most people don’t just buy on price and MCY is not near Brisbane anymore than NTL is near SYD or WTB is neat BNE
I agree and disagree with you
As I understand it AB is aiming at leisure and family visits, not businessmen, so three times daily may not be that big a selling point
A saving of $1300-$2000 for a family may result in that family fitting into ABs schedule

Again
A car trip to the Sunny Coast 1-2 hours depending on traffic
A direct jet service
Verses
A car trip to BNE 30 minutes to 1 hour
A jet to SYD or MEL
A couple of hours transfer
Then over an hour in a prop

Not saying that AB will suck up 100% of the point to point traffic, but the will get a fare bit (pun intended)

I know plenty of locals up here that flew Tiger from BNE after they left MCY to save a few hundred on a return flight to SYD

[Icarus2001]

More importantly right now, are tickets on sale yet?

[Mr_App]

More importantly right now, are tickets on sale yet?
Something seems off. Complete silence from the business also.

One would guess they are having some challenges on the ecommerce, digital, commercial side. The bits CASA does not look at. How many months have they had to get that stuff in order? Sorry how many years have they had? They possibly should not have come out and said we are starting on xx day, when the house isn't in order.

[SHVC]

I would think that first flight maybe few flights will be freebies anyway. I can’t see family’s going on cheap holidays just after kids have had 6 weeks holidays.

[Zinfandel]

Really?
So when did JQ start flying to Mildura?

My point was comparing Brisbane residents traveling to Sunny Coast to take a direct flight to Mildura
If you are arguing that JQ drops fares to Sydney, all good, but still more expensive to book through QF from MCY to MQL including JQ metal to SYD than from Brisbane anyway....

JQ are part of the QF group, so you will always have more options to reach your destination. Plus you can fly everyday to MQL from MCY and using the QF group (not diect)…something you can’t do with Bonza.

[tossbag]

This is the weirdest 'airline' launch in this country's history. All the back patting that was going on on social media prior to AOC has gone a bit silent.

[PPRuNeUser01531]

All part of 777p's plan for their little down under venture. Doing things differently because the pax they are pursuing like and want different. 738 east coast ops outside the golden triangle regime sure going to require smart different to survive.

[Zinfandel]

You can now book flights

[Deano969]

You can now book flights
So
Sunny Coast to Mildura $84 or $110 select seat + baggage
Return $79 or $104
Twice weekly

Sunny Coast to Newcastle $59/$81
Return $99/$120
4 x Weekly

Sunny Coast to Avalon $129/$155
Return $79/$104

Sunny Coast to Coffs $89/$105
Return $49/$65
2 x Weekly

Sunny Coast to Rocky $49/$65
Return $69/$85
3 x Weekly

Sunny Coast to Cairns $79/$104
Return $81/$106
5 x Weekly

Though this is in line with their $50 per hour, I reckon they are fluffing their flight times up a bit
2hr 20min to Cairns
1hr 10min to Rocky or Coffs

[PoppaJo]

MCY-AVV 2 hours 35 mins. Really??

Would be a bit rich coming out in a few months telling the others off for being late and we are always ontime, because we add 20-30mins on per flight.

[10JQKA]

You can now book flights


How ? Can't seem to make app do anything ?From ABC news (Still a while before anything much happens?)

"After the first flight next week, Bonza's regular schedule will begin on February 14 with a flight to Mackay.

Flights to Avalon begin on February 21.

Flights to Newcastle will not commence until March 28.

The Port Macquarie, Mildura, Coffs Harbour and Albury routes will begin operating in April."

[B772]

Deano969. MEB is not available for the B737 MAX8

[Alice Kiwican]

Deano969. MEB is not available for the B737 MAX8

I stand corrected but Isn’t MEB Merimbula?

[Deano969]

I stand corrected but Isn’t MEB Merimbula?
Essendon

[Alice Kiwican]

Essendon

Ahh ok that makes more sense.

[markis10]

So the initial AVV-MCY doesn’t facilitate weekends in the Sun , first epic fail

[10JQKA]

Just worked out why my app doesn't work !

"Interestingly you can’t actually book through the airlines website – travellers have to book through the Fly Bonza app (and for those who have already downloaded the app, Bonza has advised that it will need to be deleted and reinstalled to have the ability to book flights)."

[43Inches]

I still fear it just doesn't add up for this mob, but, now that they have made it into the air I wish them the best. Hopefully the aparent madness is just genius tapping a market we never expected and not just, well, madness....

[B772]

I agree with you 43inches. The overall concept does not make sense to me. A small fleet of large capacity and expensive aircraft operating infrequent all economy services with low cost airfares between low volume city pairs. Starting with the overhang of huge start up costs per aircraft and little opportunity for economies of scale. Little or no air cargo offering between their city pairs to help pay for the fuel.

We have just learnt Flybe of Birmingham in the UK has collapsed. Affiliated with Cyrus Partners a hedge fund in the US Flybe operated a fleet of 8 all economy aircraft and carried approx. 2,500 pax per day. With 2 hubs, 22 routes and 16 destinations the similarities between Bonza and Flybe are frightening.

Deano. Tell me I am wrong

[Global Aviator]

I agree with you 43inches. The overall concept does not make sense to me. A small fleet of large capacity and expensive aircraft operating infrequent all economy services with low cost airfares between low volume city pairs. Starting with the overhang of huge start up costs per aircraft and little opportunity for economies of scale. Little or no air cargo offering between their city pairs to help pay for the fuel.

We have just learnt Flybe of Birmingham in the UK has collapsed. Affiliated with Cyrus Partners a hedge fund in the US Flybe operated a fleet of 8 all economy aircraft and carried approx. 2,500 pax per day. With 2 hubs, 22 routes and 16 destinations the similarities between Bonza and Flybe are frightening.

Deano. Tell me I am wrong

You are wrong Flybe operated Q400’s :).

[43Inches]

FlyBe was a complete basket case, the current administration is whats left of the relaunch from the previous administration in 2020. Lucky that Loganair was only used as a franchise and not involved in the administration and continues on.

[Deano969]

I agree with you 43inches. The overall concept does not make sense to me. A small fleet of large capacity and expensive aircraft operating infrequent all economy services with low cost airfares between low volume city pairs. Starting with the overhang of huge start up costs per aircraft and little opportunity for economies of scale. Little or no air cargo offering between their city pairs to help pay for the fuel.

We have just learnt Flybe of Birmingham in the UK has collapsed. Affiliated with Cyrus Partners a hedge fund in the US Flybe operated a fleet of 8 all economy aircraft and carried approx. 2,500 pax per day. With 2 hubs, 22 routes and 16 destinations the similarities between Bonza and Flybe are frightening.

Deano. Tell me I am wrong

You are wrong
JQ couldn't make it in NZ with Q300s either

Again, have a close look at Flair if you want to compare AB with any other operator

[TBM-Legend]

You are wrong Flybe operated Q400’s :).

And an ATR72 and Emb170 on wet leases from European operators

losing I’m reliably informed around $5m per month

[Ollie Onion]

Flyby was a great airline and product when they service niche markets that didn’t interest the bigger players. They got into trouble when they entertained and implemented the plan to take on the likes of EasyJet and Ryan Air and then to operate from Heathrow.

The lesson here for Bonza is to stick to their smaller ‘holiday routes’ that don’t interest the Virgins and Jetstar of the world. If they stray into markets in competition with Virgin or Jetstar they will be toast. I hope they forge a very successful business.

[43Inches]

FlyBe at least tried to use aircraft that were suited to thin alternate routes, using a trunk airliner in a country where everybody is on connecting flights to somewhere else via the capitals is the big issue. I think lease and operating costs are going to be the crunch on this, then there's the problem if they do find a market for a large airliner to operate it will probably get interest from the other airlines as well. Anything that makes money will interest the J* and VA thinkers. That's why they do direct Ballina, Coffs, flights etc etc...

[Deano969]

If, for example, Bonza jumped on MEL-OOL 6 daily at say $80 or less each way on every seat and could make it work at 80%
Assuming 777 can back this for 6-12 months at below 50% (assuming QF/JQ and VA would compete)

Who would be first to waive the white flag ?

[Lead Balloon]

Who would be first to waive the white flag ?Who knows.

But I’ll guarantee the airports won’t waive the landing fees.

[SHVC]

There is an impending capacity war coming, I think July we will see this. Fares will drop to pre COVID levels the question is how low can the likes of Rex and Bonza go and be prepared to stay that low.

[43Inches]

There is an impending capacity war coming, I think July we will see this. Fares will drop to pre COVID levels the question is how low can the likes of Rex and Bonza go and be prepared to stay that low.

That is a concern for all. Bonza and Rex have an edge however, small fleets means flexibility when demand drops, they can intelligently cherry pick yielding routes and move where the gravy is. VA, QF and J* have large fleets with large overheads, if demand falls off a cliff they still have the large overheads but no income on the lower performing routes, with no way to redistribute the fleet as they are already covering the trunk ones to capacity. As seen in the US the large operators tend to hit the wall first in downturns as they have way too much capacity built up and wrung up debt very quickly with empty aircraft and leases to pay down.

[SHVC]

Well you may have answered the question then.

[morno]

I think you’ll find that the competition has bigger problems that will prevent them from trying to fly against Bonza, it’s called lack of crew. You can’t fly aircraft without them.

[43Inches]

And that is proving to be a bigger problem in good times for the smaller operators, finding crew and even aircraft in the good times is the hard part for them. In the bad times cheap crew, cheap leases, all work in the favor of smaller airlines. A lot of the smaller airlines in the US went to the wall in reasonably good times, due lack of or expense of crew and aircraft. So in short, bad times favor the smaller guys and good times favor the capacity of the big ones, in recent times anyway.

PS this situation the last 20 years is a skewed economic issue that aviations has dug itself. The system has become so lean for aircraft, parts and personnel that any push for capacity increases pushes hard on increasing costs.

[tossbag]

If, for example, Bonza jumped on MEL-OOL 6 daily at say $80 or less each way on every seat and could make it work at 80% Assuming 777 can back this for 6-12 months at below 50% (assuming QF/JQ and VA would compete)

They do that and qantas, virgin and even rex will **** them harder than a digger who's back from a two year detachment.

[pinkpanther1]

So how'd the first flight go today? Was reading on the ABC they had 160pax on board but only 2 fare paying ones. The rest media, pollies etc. Don't know how accurate that is though.

[SHVC]

You would be very peed off if you were the fare paying pax.

[VHOED191006]

Just saw on another forum that they've apparently sold over 10,000 tickets

[Icarus2001]

if demand falls off a cliff they still have the large overheads but no income on the lower performing routes, with no way to redistribute the fleet as they are already covering the trunk ones to capacity.

You are completely overlooking the fact that QF group airlines can deploy 97 seat E190s, 100 seat F100s or any number of A320 combinations. They know about right sizing. Give them some credit.

[43Inches]

Why would you redeploy high sector cost RJs when you have 200 odd trunk airliners sitting idle in a demand glut. And BTW as with the VA case any 737 that gets returned to a lessor will be snapped up cheaply by the competition, which was Rexs game plan when VA went under. The lessor will just offer it to another local player to avoid having to fly it away to offload. Most likely the owned RJs get pushed against the wall, returned to leasehold, or continue to operate the FIFO or whatever else they were bought for in the first place. Have to remember the current boon in passenger numbers is a result of pent up travel from the Covid lockdowns, its returning to normal and may even cause a glut of discretionary travel as people realise that life will return to normal, but now they have less money... I've already heard that QF group is practicing some yield management on routes they jumped onto, with the larger capacity aircraft they are now canceling/combining flights to make them more profitable as demand eases off.

PS an F100 even EJets are not that much cheaper than a 737 to operate, due to a number of reasons not just fuel related. However they are way cheaper to push against the fence due to the much lower capital costs involved. And if you were to drop to those aircraft on trunk routes while the opposition used 737/A320 you might find a lot of passengers change stripes.

Imagine what happens when you send a 737 back to lessor and put the crew on LWOP or sack them. The opposition will just take them in this climate and the jet and crew will be added to the woes against you.

[Icarus2001]

The E190 and F100 are certainly not high sector cost but to answer YOUR question, because YOU said demand drops off a cliff leaving them wrong sized.

Most likely the owned RJs get pushed against the wall, returned to leasehold, or continue to operate the FIFO

This makes no sense, you have no idea. The group operated RJs as you keep calling them are very cheap for QF.

[43Inches]

I actually have a very good idea of the operating cost of the E190 vs the 737 its not a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. Fuel burn yes the E190 is much better but other areas cost more, the 737 is like the Ford Falcon of aviation, its cheap, cheap parts, mass available spares, economy of scale etc etc. The EJets are a bit like a Euro car made in Brasil, everythings a little more expensive but it burns less fuel. A bit like the ATR 72 vs the Q400, the Q400 is cheaper to maintain and can do more sectors per day, as well as longer TBOs, the ATR uses much less fuel, but just about everything else costs more due to lower component times etc etc.

RJs are lower cost to operate thin longer routes or in particular in Australia the FiFO market. WRT the use of them as regional airliners here, they only work if near full constantly, otherwise the Q400 is way better economics wise. The NJS 717s are probably experiencing more maintenance issues due to overextending times when things should have been replaced, that's usually a sign they are trying to get blood from a stone economics speaking.

[Icarus2001]

Now you are arguing both sides. Have a nice day.

[43Inches]

I think you miss the point that the RJs are disposable assets in a downturn, but the trunk airliners will be needed in the recovery to provide capacity. As I said before its way cheaper to push the RJs out in a slowdown, with an expected recovery than it is to furlough the main fleet and re-engage it when things pick up. Looking at the overall picture here not just static fuel burns and crew costs in isolation.

But the original statement was that if QF is already providing maximum capacity in order to maintain 60% or whatever of the market, if a downturn occurs they will be massively over capacity. Its then not about what jet you put on the route as you are supporting the costs of equipment and staff that have no purpose as there is no revenue to support them. The smaller competition has less to support so can support lower prices and still make ends meet, while sucking passengers from the larger operator. A capacity war that QF has usually fought has used its size and profit on its network to push prices down on competitive routes. A general capacity decline, or economic downturn means all route revenue declines, so you can't use one to leverage the other. Rex and VA to an extent are struggling to meet demand with the few aircraft they have, so in a downturn it will not affect them much at all.

[Icarus2001]

Sydney airport…

A Sydney Airport spokeswoman said it would be "delighted" to have Bonza operating there.

"The unfortunate reality is that Sydney Airport is the most constrained and regulated airport in the world, which means we have very limited capacity during peak periods," a spokeswoman said.


​​​​​​​Just brilliant. Australia being unique and all.

[Mr_App]

There is an impending capacity war coming, I think July we will see this. Fares will drop to pre COVID levels the question is how low can the likes of Rex and Bonza go and be prepared to stay that low.

I think even the airlines analysts would have a hard time at the moment working out how the landscape will change in the medium term. We have lost a low cost carrier with near 20 aircraft, market share replaced with Rex, Bonza, Alliance. Jetstar would have gained margin improvement from the Tiger exit, will trend backwards in some Bonza regions (very minimal) but still remains strong without a Tiger replacement on most of its comparable network. Bonza has said they will get as big as the market allows it. Very hard to see that getting past 15.

Capacity wars are margin draining. Something Bain won't want to get involved in. I really don't think we will see that much capacity coming in, Virgin and Jetstar will soon be receiving one aircraft per month, all indications is that Jetstar are sending a A320 out west as each A321 arrives. Virgin have a whole pile of ageing aircraft to deal with also.

[Bend alot]

Why? not required & limits getting staff.

The wellbeing, safety and security of our people, customers and operations come first. Under our COVID-19 Vaccination Policy we require all legends at Bonza to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. More information will be provided during our recruitment process.

[B772]

Another bad omen for Bonza. Flyr of Norway a low cost carrier operating to leisure destinations has just collapsed. A fleet of 12 x B738, of which 6 were the MAX. Their business plan was for a fleet of 30 B738-MAX. Been operating just over 18 months. Classic case of overestimating the passenger traffic and underestimating the costs. Flyr did not have a reservation system and relied upon a mobile phone app for all sales.

Unless Bonza change their business plan I doubt they will see August 23.

[SHVC]

I think we all know Bonza won’t survive in their current business plan. We all don’t know what their actual plan is.

[PoppaJo]

Here is the plan from a ABC article. So pretty much what Tiger did at the start. Just be mindful booking way ahead, you might be a victim of the flexible experimenting.


777 founder Steve Pasko was on Bonza's inaugural flight on Tuesday (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-31/bonza-eyes-melbourne-base-as-first-flight-takes-off/101911170) and said he saw an opportunity in the Australian aviation market, which lacks an independent budget carrier. (Jetstar is owned by Qantas.)

Mr Pasko said 777 was budgeting for Bonza to run at a loss for 12 months and hoped it would become profitable in its second year.

He said Bonza needed to consistently fill about 90 per cent of seats and the airline would be "flexible" by experimenting with its destinations and frequency.

[Wizofoz]

Another bad omen for Bonza. Flyr of Norway a low cost carrier operating to leisure destinations has just collapsed. A fleet of 12 x B738, of which 6 were the MAX. Their business plan was for a fleet of 30 B738-MAX. Been operating just over 18 months. Classic case of overestimating the passenger traffic and underestimating the costs. Flyr did not have a reservation system and relied upon a mobile phone app for all sales..
Damn shame, but maybe Bonza could get some cheap Maxes and Rex some -800s??

[havick]

Damn shame, but maybe Bonza could get some cheap Maxes and Rex some -800s??

To be fair, pretty much every Norwegian airline goes bankrupt multiple times as they shift their deck chairs.

[Australopithecus]

Damn shame, but maybe Bonza could get some cheap Maxes and Rex some -800s??

The market for leasing remains strong worldwide, and Max8 leasing rates are $12,500 AUD/day. ($316,000 USD/month, although that rate may now be higher)

[ANCDU]

Well they need to start flying them a bit more, I’ve been to MCY a number of times since the first flight and their aircraft have been all closed up tucked away in the corner, not sure if it’s bad timing or that they aren’t actually flying much at the moment.

[Deano969]

Looks like first regular flights are
14th MKY
16th to PPP
21st AVV
22nd TSV

Interestingly Flight Radar has them running AB101 SYD-BNE daily at 10.30am, perhaps a sign of things to come ?

[ANCDU]

Well at least they have some spares for tech issues, they will have fantastic OTP!

[Mr_App]

I hope they do well, a very risky time to be launching a holiday destination focussed airline when the economy is tanking.
More noise around that today again. The Chinese and Japanese tourists will plug some gaps in the meantime, but you cannot deny, next financial year is going to be tough for households. The question is will the RBA send the country into recession in order to hit its inflation targets? The dialogue today appears it is heading in that direction, rates will be pushed until they the required numbers.

[Deano969]

Apparently the Bonza app was the most downloaded app in Australia last week

[Mr_App]

Considering it is the only way to book, if it wasn't highly ranked I would be worried!

[Fliegenmong]

Was going to give them a go for a flight I need in the not too distant future, then learnt that I needed an 'app', so Rex gets a go!

[Zinfandel]

So a week since their first flight…anyone have actual number of paid passengers on theirs flights over the past week?

[Deano969]

So a week since their first flight…anyone have actual number of paid passengers on theirs flights over the past week?
Bonza have said that they have booked over 10,000 seats thus far

[Zinfandel]

Bonza have said that they have booked over 10,000 seats thus far

That is a useless statement, what counts is bums on seats now, not future numbers. I’m sure that QF and VA have over a 10000 seats booked as well

[Deano969]

That is a useless statement, what counts is bums on seats now, not future numbers. I’m sure that QF and VA have over a 10000 seats booked as well
Yea but with only 15 or so flights per week (30 sectors) bookable for the next 3 months that's good going
Out of 300 or so sectors they have already filled well over 55 in less than 2 weeks

[Deano969]

Perhaps PapaJo can get to MCY after the 14th and start counting

[Captn Rex Havack]

No Deano, no.....please no

[PoppaJo]

I think everyone has a right to call out this operation if its falling apart quickly, just remember, nobody asked them to start an operation, spare me the tears if Plan A doesn't work out. They have come out with big statements, they have told the media they will be a success, they have said they need 90% loads, they have said losses budgeted for the first year only.

However, if they actually own up to the business case not stacking up, adjusts the plan, admits defeat and tries something else, well that's a different matter. Rex got slammed on here because they had the gaul to tell us folks over the fence we are all fools, and they are enjoying top end loads, while the truth was the opposite, it was all single digit bull****.

This mob will need Mascot to make it work, I recall standing at a press conference in 2007 and Tiger's Tony Davis and Co saying that we will not serve Mascot. 15 months later they started selling tickets. Bonza will be in Mascot by 2024 mark my words.

[Deano969]

Bonza will be in Mascot by 2024 mark my words.

AB will be in SWA in 2027 and will never fly to SYD take it to the bank

If Sydney Airport cut a deal with Bonza QF/JQ VA and even ZL would be extremely pissed, especially if it was a better deal than they were on
In a few years they will even have an alternative to move a percentage of their flights to as a reprisal
Bonza are an ULCC and have made it quite clear that they won't service ports that don't come to the party cost wise
Anyway Bonza are touting themselves as a bogan airline so SWA certainly would be a better fit

[PoppaJo]

Heard it all before…

Pussycat
But the airline may snub Sydney as a destination, with Tiger chief executive Tony Davis admitting the harbour city may not fit the airline's low-cost model. While he stopped short of saying that Sydney would be left off the list of routes, he conceded that Newcastle — Tiger's first destination in NSW — was a better fit for the airline.

Bonza
​​​​​​​Mr Jordan said Sydney was not a viable destination for the low-cost carrier with the airport's current fees.
"They're not as keen to come to the table … or maybe they don't see the opportunity," he said.
"We're quite enthusiastic about Sydney, but it has to be at the right pricing."

A Sydney Airport spokeswoman said it would be "delighted" to have Bonza operating there.

[SWMBO]

Besides the first flight to Proserpine over a week ago, has there been any other flights? And where to?

[Deano969]

Nothing
Kicking off Feb 14

[Icarus2001]

SWA - Jieyang Shaosan Airport, China

SWZ - Sydney West Airport, Australia

[tossbag]

Was going to give them a go for a flight I need in the not too distant future, then learnt that I needed an 'app', so Rex gets a go!

Dude, I'm an old bloke, and I can download an app, and I book lots of stuff on apps. Even though they probably need every cent I'm tipping they're actually happy you're not travelling with them.

[tossbag]

I think everyone has a right to call out this operation if its falling apart quickly

Rights? Where do you think you are? The US? Being a bit dramatic perhaps?

​​​​​​​nobody asked them to start an operation

Yeah, there's probably lots of folk that want more choice.

​​​​​​​Rex got slammed on here because they had the gaul to tell us folks over the fence we are all fools, and they are enjoying top end loads, while the truth was the opposite, it was all single digit bull****.

I was on an out bound Virgin flight and an inbound REX flight a week ago. The REX flight was full, the Virgin flight wasn't, by a long shot.

​​​​​​​This mob will need Mascot to make it work

Bull**** they will.

​​​​​​​Bonza will be in Mascot by 2024 mark my words.

​​​​​​​Bull**** they will be.

[Mr_App]

I admire your enthusiasm toss.......but on a serious note, we have all seen these wacko biz plans done before, it's just hard to see it working, happy to be proven wrong, but it just looks like a hard slog, seen time and time again. I would be more nervous awaiting the others coming in and wiping that profit, we all know the ACCC is a toothless tiger.

[Deano969]

VH-UKH on it's way...

[tossbag]

Mr App, I've been around a fair while, I've seen a lot of them come and go, starting with both Compasses, Impulse, Virginblue, remember OzJet? I'm not saying Bonza is a cert, in fact, they WILL change their business model at some point. But REX is doing something right if they're leasing another 2 at this stage. I jump on flights quite a bit lately and the numbers amongst the different companies is a bit surprising. Who knows what price all of the passengers are paying of course and the yield.

[MickG0105]

https://simpleflying.com/bonza-base-melbourne-launches-3-routes/

You have to wonder if Melbourne Airport is offering Bonza discounts on fees. Bonza's CEO, Tim Jordanwalk, has previously said that they would walk away from airports that don’t come to the negotiating table on fees.

[Tyranosoaring Rex]

Tamworth- Sunny coast. Wellcamp- Townsville.
What are these people smoking???

[10JQKA]

Tamworth- Sunny coast. Wellcamp- Townsville.
What are these people smoking???

Dunno but $24.50 for each kind of music leaves plenty $$s for the tobacconist

[PPRuNeUser01531]

Good....Different....Sound familiar? Thankyou 777p for coming down under and giving Bonza a crack. I think your flexible business and marketing strategies focusing on point to point leisure travellers will prove successful and max utilization of your aircraft will be achieved far sooner than many foresee.

[TBM-Legend]

Good....Different....Sound familiar? Thankyou 777p for coming down under and giving Bonza a crack. I think your flexible business and marketing strategies focusing on point to point leisure travellers will prove successful and max utilization of your aircraft will be achieved far sooner than many foresee.

it’s not April Fool’s Day yet.

Flair in Canada aren’t setting the Canadian market on fire either. Sacked their COO and a new one arrives from LOT Polish Airlines

Air North struggled on Wellcamp to TSV and MEL and couldn’t fill the E170’s and were cash subsidised by Wagner’s

[Deano969]

Air North struggled on Wellcamp to TSV and MEL and couldn’t fill the E170’s and were cash subsidised by Wagner’s

Massive difference in pricing however
Wellcamp to TSV, CNS and MEL on Air North were well over $300 one way where as Bonza are from $129 to MEL and $69 to TSV

In other words, take a family of 4 Wellcamp to Townsville
Air North $2400.00+
Bonza $560.00

Let's be honest, with Air North, if you had to go, you could either drive to BNE to save over $1000.00 or pay the $2400
Bonza would just be a no brainer right....
So need to compare apples with apples, just because Air North failed does not mean Bonza will......

[TBM-Legend]

Massive difference in pricing however
Wellcamp to TSV, CNS and MEL on Air North were well over $300 one way where as Bonza are from $129 to MEL and $69 to TSV

In other words, take a family of 4 Wellcamp to Townsville
Air North $2400.00+
Bonza $560.00

Let's be honest, with Air North, if you had to go, you could either drive to BNE to save over $1000.00 or pay the $2400
Bonza would just be a no brainer right....
So need to compare apples with apples, just because Air North failed does not mean Bonza will......


I come from Toowoomba. Not many are interested in the sh$thole of the north (I’ve lived there too) and why Melbourne?

[Mr_App]

So need to compare apples with apples, just because Air North failed does not mean Bonza will......

What about the elephant in the room, the tanking economy.

The family from Wellcamp or Mildura might save some cash by flying the new low cost entrant, but they are also facing the "fixed rate cliff". The option for them is simple, don't go at all. I am no economist, but it's pretty clear, with fixed rates falling away, energy prices surging, and we can go on and on, but the point is, it is about to get tough. Reduced discretionary spend is top of the list, isn't that Bonza's revenue? The language from the market this week was much the same, from all the big players. Caution is the new normal.

Is this really the right time of the decade to be launching a new startup?

[IAW]

Mortgage cliff schmorgage cliff.

It's in the newspapers' interest to drum up a "crisis".

The number of bad mortgages resulting in foreclosure will be a single digit percentage.

​​A generalisation: Aussies are good at battening down the hatches. The GFC trained us well to spend less and save more. So much so that back then the government were begging us to spend more to keep retailers open. All households are feeling the pinch of inflation but... relatively few will lose their homes.

What is a certainty, the rich will get richer by buying the distressed assets.

​​​

[Hamley]

If I lived in Toowoomba I’d need a damn good reason to pay 500 bucks to take my family to Townsville. Who even goes to Townsville anyway?

[rodney rude]

I come from Toowoomba. Not many are interested in the sh$thole of the north (I’ve lived there too) and why Melbourne?

Mate could we see the results of your straw poll please. Or are you just speaking for the whole of the large population of Toowoomba with
no actual guaging of what people may like to do.

Barrier Reef, Maggie Island, game fishing, warm winters.....I've lived there as well, loved it, and the wife and I are planning a Townsville holiday
for this year.

So please.- the results of your poll would be great

[Zinfandel]

Apparently the first TVL-ROk flight had less than 30 pax. That is less than what VA carried on the E170 on the same route over 10 years ago. Photos on Facebook show the empty seats.

[Deano969]

Apparently the first TVL-ROk flight had less than 30 pax. That is less than what VA carried on the E170 on the same route over 10 years ago. Photos on Facebook show the empty seats.
Not good
I think this route was a bit of an afterthought though, even I would not have thought this would work
Do you have info on how their Sunny Coast departures are doing?

[Wizofoz]

Not good
I think this route was a bit of an afterthought though, even I would not have thought this would work
Do you have info on how their Sunny Coast departures are doing?
Plus I assume the aircraft went WTB-TSV first- any idea of the loads?

[tiger-palm]

Plus I assume the aircraft went WTB-TSV first- any idea of the loads?

slight drift: Auckland Tower used to require PoB on first contact on the Tower Freq.
Rumour has it that when Jet * started flying to NZ they objected to announcing their PoB over the Tower freq because it was sensitive information they didn’t want their competitors knowing, so it stopped.

[TBM-Legend]

Mate could we see the results of your straw poll please. Or are you just speaking for the whole of the large population of Toowoomba with
no actual guaging of what people may like to do.

Barrier Reef, Maggie Island, game fishing, warm winters.....I've lived there as well, loved it, and the wife and I are planning a Townsville holiday
for this year.

So please.- the results of your poll would be great

I’m from Toowoomba and lived and worked in Townsville and the north for over 20 years. Magnetic Is is a dump with a reasonable beach and apart from the September Carnival of Flowers who’s flying southbound.

[TBM-Legend]

I’m from Toowoomba and lived and worked in Townsville and the north for over 20 years. Magnetic Is is a dump with a reasonable beach and apart from the September Carnival of Flowers who’s flying southbound.


Townsville had the highest per capita rate of home break-ins in Australia
Queensland featured heavily, with Cairns, Brisbane and Toowoomba in top 10
Queensland also had the highest total number of home break-ins in 2022

[Zinfandel]

Seems very quiet here. No one is posting the actual passenger numbers on each flight like they were doing with REX.

I was at YBSU today and there was only 1 Bonza flight and 3 Bonza 737s parked up. Test QF, JQ and VA had multiple flights.

Also looking at flights out of YBSU, outside of peak flights on the QF group are as low as $77.

[PoppaJo]

Rex from the start ran a dozen plus flights a day with Sharpie telling the media they are full and Qantas better watch out, all you pilots get paid too much blah blah blah, meanwhile the truth exposed was single digits loads daily. That’s why they got called out on here, the comments from both Chairs in that joint was a disgrace. Some people got quite defensive when those numbers got called out, and repeatedly tried to shut those comments down, strange, as numbers are numbers. We also had members telling the rest of the group, that we should have our conditions chopped and follow the lead re Rex and Virgin. They know who they are, terrible behaviour.

Bonza has one flight a day, or 0.12% daily capacity within the market, until they get a dozen plus a day way too early to say. Even the Bonza boss said publicly, they will know pretty quick if the model is or isn’t going to work. As we have seen in the UK and US with these models, they generally operate to a sessional schedule across the year, likely where many of these routes here will end up also, and the owner has already said that up front if some markets don’t work.

[MickG0105]

... No one is posting the actual passenger numbers on each flight like they were doing with REX.
​​​​​​...

The Bonza pax data isn't available through third party reporting sites such as Expert Flyer.

... Bonza has one flight a day ... Two most days. That still routinely leaves three jets parked up and less than a kilometre from the surf.

[Zinfandel]

The Bonza pax data isn't available through third party reporting sites such as Expert Flyer.
And why is that? If you were confident with pax numbers you would say it. Virgin Blue did this with the media back when they started. However Bonza has been very quiet since their first flight. Those that have flown Bonza are posting on Facebook and saying great flight, but less than 30 pax per flight on average.

[tossbag]

I get to fly in and out of Sunny a bit, there's a sea of purple parked up, I don't get the business model that sees an airline launch and then has most of its jets parked up.

[MickG0105]

The Bonza pax data isn't available through third party reporting sites such as Expert Flyer....
And why is that? ...

I'm not sure but I would hazard a guess that it is a sign that Bonza are not using one of the mainstream GDSs for bookings. That would gel with the fact that you can only book through their app.

[markis10]

I'm not sure but I would hazard a guess that it is a sign that Bonza are not using one of the mainstream GDSs for bookings. That would gel with the fact that you can only book through their app.

They use AeroCRS and Worldticket which are owned by the parent company. I am not sure how they will go with app only access, to me it’s a bit of an oversight much like Compass MK1 deciding food isn’t important. They are price leading but don’t show on kayak, google flights etc.

‘’This week they have 1 flight a day excluding Wednesday and Saturdays, mostly PSP and MKY. Not doing MKY mid week means they miss the “locals” who self FIFO. Last week I had a look an hour out from the MKY bound flight and counted 50 odd seats reserved/blocked, fare was $48 each way, ymmv.

[TBM-Legend]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/219x186/8f372126_e558_4b0c_b67e_7dfa9926e3e4_4e05eb099dd107412835387 f4fd202dbf9ddd53f.jpeg

[MickG0105]

They use AeroCRS and Worldticket which are owned by the parent company. I am not sure how they will go with app only access, to me it’s a bit of an oversight much like Compass MK1 deciding food isn’t important. They are price leading but don’t show on kayak, google flights etc.

‘’This week they have 1 flight a day excluding Wednesday and Saturdays, mostly PSP and MKY. Not doing MKY mid week means they miss the “locals” who self FIFO. Last week I had a look an hour out from the MKY bound flight and counted 50 odd seats reserved/blocked, fare was $48 each way, ymmv.
Thanks for that information regarding AeroCRS. It seems as though 777 Partners have a few ongoing revenue streams from this venture.

Regarding flights, I'm seeing two a day, every day except Sundays.

Mon - MCY-TSV, TSV-ROK
Tue - MCY-MEL, MCY-PPP
Wed - MCY-TSV, TSV-ROK
Thu - MCY-MKY, MCY-PPP
Fri - MCY-TSV, TSV-ROK
Sat - MCY-MEL, MCY-MKY
Sun - MCY-PPP
All same day returns.

They're certainly not setting the world on fire. As you've noted, not servicing Mackay more frequently seems to be letting a potentially good base load (FIFO) go begging.

[TBM-Legend]

I guess the spies are counting heads on Bonza and I wonder what the initial uptake has been like.

hard to see any advertising around either

[Mr_App]

You can simply jump on the app, do a booking 2-3 hours before, to gauge some numbers, if you are really interested. No trade secret the majority of passengers checkin online, and drop bags later.

Diving into the app, yes, it does appear that they are struggling, however only been on sale for just over a month, not sure how long one would give it. Domestic can fill up very quickly within the last few weeks and days, you do need that capital city push however to make that happen. The best performing route appears to be Avalon, which could be good news for the Melbourne base they are planning on starting. But routes like TSV-ROK, MCY-PPP, are doing about as great as everyone on here guessed. Does not bode well for some other upcoming routes like Rockhampton to Sunny Coast, Wellcamp to Proserpine/Townsville, Coffs/Port to Sunny Coast. Did Jetstar and Tiger both not pull out of Rockhampton citing poor demand?

I guess the next thing is, how do they navigate the bad press re constantly chopping and changing the network in the coming months. Don't want to fall into the Jetstar bucket, ie most unreliable airline on the land.

[Deano969]

Trouble in Canada....
Explains why VH UDV ended up going to Flair

[PoppaJo]

Alarm bells in Canada more like it. Leasing companies/banks generally will go to considerable lengths, and work with many parties to avoid repossession. To take 20% of the fleet overnight isn't done lightly.

[43Inches]

I'd agree entirely in a normal economy, but some of these airlines signed very good deals during the covid slowdown combined with Max grounding. The lease company's may be looking for simple ways to break lease and sign better deals with other operators, being silly enough to fall a few days behind in payments would probably be enough. Or Flair is just a basket case and is genuinely having cash flow problems and the lease holders want out.

[TBM-Legend]

Flair a sister company to Bonza and funded by 777Partners just had four B738Max repossessed by the lessors.
Canada's Flair Airlines cancels multiple flights after 4 planes seized over 'commercial dispute'

[apacau]

Watched “Sheila” arrive in TSV ex MCY this morning. Looked like a close to full load inbound but a very sparsely populated departure lounge for the departure to ROK.

sample size of 1, mind you…

[Mr_App]

Watched “Sheila” arrive in TSV ex MCY this morning. Looked like a close to full load inbound but a very sparsely populated departure lounge for the departure to ROK.

sample size of 1, mind you…

The economy is tanking. What does everyone expect?

[morno]

I’d love to know what your definition of ‘tanking’ is. Definitely not what the loads on most flights I go on would have you believe.

[SHVC]

Definitely not tanking from what I see.

[dragon man]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11842237/Grim-receipt-Gymea-restaurant-lays-bare-Australias-inflation-cost-living-crisis.html

That’s reality for those with mortgages , where people have homes paid off it’s still boomsville. I spoke to a debt collector this morning his bad debt work has doubled from January and this is without electricity price increases starting in July. There is real pain out there IMO.

[morno]

Ah yes, the Daily Mail, the bastion that is reliable and trustworthy information :hmm:

[SHVC]

Only the naive that purchased a house thinking that the cash rate would stay below 1% are in trouble, ppl need to take accountability for their own and stop blaming comments PL made, he did say until 2024 anyway so what would of happen if the same just occurred then. Goods will never go down they will remain high now just look at petrol that’s the new normal get used to it. If you 1/4 of a brain you would have risk asses a house purchase and add a few % to ensure you could afford it and if you can’t you just have to look elsewhere. I k ow my rate percentage limit we are long way off from it.

[Mr_App]

The economy is current stagnating, we appear to be approaching a tipping point. This isn't the time to launch a low cost leisure only carrier, that carries no business traffic (ie margin), has no profitable loyalty program to keep it going in the down times, with a model that is purely reliant on "getting people out of the car" between small regional populated areas. The others are in the opposite boat, have large frequency, and with that have the ability to scale down, offsetting that reduced leisure traffic. The others also have large revenue streams via corporate and freight options. They are well set going into the coming period, and will likely record margin gains. Bonza has none of that. $0.

SHVC, you are one of the smart ones. Many others are only starting to notice, about now, that things are going to be tough in the back half. Much talk today about power prices in the market. Just another headwind as we edge closer and closer to recession, while we might remain on the right side of that, the pain is still large. How is Bonza a winner in the current market conditions, and forecasts, over the coming months?

[Icarus2001]

The economy is current stagnating, we appear to be approaching a tipping point.

So much stagnating that the Reserve Bank is increasing rates regularly to cool the heat in the economy. There are massive shortages of workers. Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107. Not really earth shattering for about 80% of the population. The media are overstating the pain, as always. Power prices are a worry, the effect is being seen in house settlements and successful home loan applications, both falling.
As to a tipping point, there is no such thing in the economy. The language borrowed from the climate change industry, where it is also completely incorrect.

[Zeta_Reticuli]

So much stagnating that the Reserve Bank is increasing rates regularly to cool the heat in the economy. There are massive shortages of workers. Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107. Not really earth shattering for about 80% of the population. The media are overstating the pain, as always. Power prices are a worry, the effect is being seen in house settlements and successful home loan applications, both falling.
As to a tipping point, there is no such thing in the economy. The language borrowed from the climate change industry, where it is also completely incorrect.

you must be a very special individual to believe inflation is 7%, especially considering the government keeps changing how they calculate inflation every 6 months. I wish I lived in a delusional lala land where inflation was only 15%...

[Deano969]

Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations

Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little

[HappyBandit]

You must be a very special individual to believe that you understand inflation. The calculation in real terms is complicated and involves demand-pull, cost-pull measures etc and is derived from some 80+ attributes. The standard presentation is through CPI which is measured by the ABS every quarter and also presents an overall level annually. Current CPI for Australia is 6.9%. Now, I agree that CPI has its limitations, however it is probably the most easiest measure to understand, even if it is a crude measure.

As for changes in the calculation. You're right, and wrong at the same time. The measure variables have changed and expanded to encompass greater variables. The calculation, however has not changed since its introduction in 1960.

[HappyBandit]

Let's look a how they arrive at the inflation number
23% is housing , which should be negative at the moment
17% is food and drinks , a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
11% is transport , again a big factor in this is energy costs , totally beyond our control
9% smokes and alcohol , only the government controls these prices
There are a few more...
Funny that energy is not in the calculations

Too much of the above is beyond our control and jacking interest rates up changes very little
Energy is. It is part of the 87 measures. These % is from an overview (summary) of measures. Energy is under housing.

[MickG0105]

Energy is. It is part of the 87 measures. These % is from an overview (summary) of measures. Energy is under housing.
Quite correct. Electricity, and Gas and other household fuels are Expenditure Categories in the Utilities sub-group, which sits in the Housing group. Notably, New dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers makes up only about one third of the Housing group costs. The other expenditure categories under Housing are Rents (also around a third of total Housing group costs), and Maintenance, Property Rates, and Water and sewerage (in aggregate, also around one third).

[PoppaJo]

Prices are higher, yes indeed, but even 7% means that the $100 basket of groceries last year now costs $107.
Supermarket prices would be at least 20% higher vs 2019. I have the receipts kept in the app that proves that. Some items are 30-40% higher. Recent market results from major retailers indicate some potential margin gouging underway, same behaviour seen from one major airline group.

Commercial teams in many industries have become comfortable with the current margin level, unless revenue starts to fall away, don’t expect that to change in a hurry.

[Icarus2001]

So the above posters cannot agree what items make up the inflation figures and statements like ...

Supermarket prices would be at least 20% higher vs 2019. are meaningless without evidence.

Bottom line, very low unemployment, stabilising or falling house prices, inflation has "probably" peaked...the economy is not "stagnating".

[SHVC]

Inflation has almost peaked. We will see another 2-3 rate rises before they level off until end of yr annd then and drop .75 over 3 months were they will sit. Personally hope they don’t ever go back to less than 1%, we are seeing now what that does to ppl. Gives false hope of the economy.

We won’t see goods come back however, the population won’t take a pay cut and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it.

[Icarus2001]

and the refineries won’t refine for anything less now that we are used to it. Not many of those in Australia anymore.

[MickG0105]

So the above posters cannot agree what items make up the inflation figures ...
Probably more correct to say that one poster doesn't know what items make up the inflation figures. The make up of the CPI is well documented (https://www.abs.gov.au/methodologies/guide-consumer-price-index-17th-series-methodology/2017).