Bonza has its AOC

[TBM-Legend]

So thank you all for the lessons on the economics of the Australian economy. Sadly no PhD stuff there and so it may be of interest to see how Bonza is travelling with good or not so good load factors as in the airline business Coles and Woolies don’t sell airline tickets to the best of my understanding.

[Mach2point7]

Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?

[Deano969]

Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?
No
They have 4 at the moment
Often 2 flying daily
Ramping up and of March, pretty much doubling sectors

[MickG0105]

Am I correct in believing that Bonza currently has three aircraft at its disposal (UJK, UIK and UJT) but only appears to fly one of the three on any given day ?
They've got four out here at the moment (-UIK, -UJK, -UJT, and -UKH). On any given day three are parked up.

Of late, they seem to be running a three day rotation. -UJT is currently getting its turn; it's doing MCY-TSV-ROK-TSV-MCY today, flew yesterday and flew on Wednesday. -UJK flew the three days before that (12-14 March incl) and -UIK got its run 11-13 March incl. -UKH hasn't flown since arriving in Australia a month ago. I cannot recall a day when they have had two aircraft operating revenue flights same day (when you only have two east-coast domestic returns on your "busy" days you really don't need to).

[Mach2point7]

Thanks Mick; that is a good summary. This thread started over two months ago following a much delayed AOC approval. It seems notable that with a fleet of four aircraft on the register and in-country, only one of the four flies each day - usually six sectors. The question is why. Crew shortage or some other constraint ?

[PoppaJo]

One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You can’t really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.

Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.

[TBM-Legend]

One would assume due to the non business traveller nature re the route network, they need considerable time to get forward bookings. You can’t really launch Melbourne to Bundy next week and expect to go out full, Sydney to Adelaide Rex could kick off next week if they wanted to.

Now you would assume the lease payments are the same as sister company Flair, which appear to be 250k/month each as per the recent aircraft repo drama.

I guess the Oracle has spoken. Bookings start generally before the routes commence, sometimes weeks or months.

The repos from Flair were from a company not associated with 777 Partners.

[Mach2point7]

Interesting article by Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/as-bailiffs-seize-jets-from-canadian-airline-boeing-order-in-the-balance/

[StarVision]

Time to end the myth that maintenance done in Australia is somehow superior to numerous other places.
Absolutely agree on that.

[Australopithecus]

Interesting indeed. And disheartening. Clearly 777Partners are just a couple of money bros. Good luck to what I fear is going to be another cohort of employees left jobless when reality bites.

[TBM-Legend]

Interesting indeed. And disheartening. Clearly 777Partners are just a couple of money bros. Good luck to what I fear is going to be another cohort of employees left jobless when reality bites.

proof that you can’t sell a $10 ticket for $9 and stay in business!

[HappyBandit]

I suspect 777 Partners are preoccupied at raising capital with Newcastle United. https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/newcastle-united-amanda-staveley-pcp-pif-777-partners-investment/?zephr_sso_ott=JF2luM

[MickG0105]

https://youtu.be/g8IVI0sZ6F8

On Tuesday Bonza progressed to only having half of their fleet parked up. -UKH got its first run (MCY-MQL-PQQ-MCY), after arriving in country more than a month earlier, and -UIK flew MCY-MKY return, MCY-AVV return and MCY-PPP return (to the delight of Marcoola locals, no doubt, arriving home just before midnight). Bonz managed a similar feat yesterday with -UIK and -UJK both in the air.

[TBM-Legend]

https://youtu.be/g8IVI0sZ6F8

On Tuesday Bonza progressed to only having half of their fleet parked up. -UKH got its first run (MCY-MQL-PQQ-MCY), after arriving in country more than a month earlier, and -UIK flew MCY-MKY return, MCY-AVV return and MCY-PPP return (to the delight of Marcoola locals, no doubt, arriving home just before midnight). Bonz managed a similar feat yesterday with -UIK and -UJK both in the air.


what are they waiting for? Lots of staff? Are they still doing training? The people in Albury and Tamworth are getting anxious?

[DJ737]

New routes starting each day from 27/03

[dragon man]

They are doing something different and I for one hope they succeed and wish them nothing but the best.

[Mr_App]

what are they waiting for? Lots of staff? Are they still doing training? The people in Albury and Tamworth are getting anxious?

They are likely waiting for passengers who are voting with their wallets at the moment, not with Bonza's leisure focused business plan.

Your power bill will be 24-30% more from July 1. Fixed rates start falling away in 90 days. The incumbent operators are full, however the market is still running at -13% capacity, and load factors are trending backwards.

Analysts predict retail sales could fall as much as 10% this quarter. All eyes will be on the market next month.

[Deano969]

Looks like AB has just clocked over 100,000 seats sold as of this week
Around 550 sectors assuming flights fully booked, which is unlikely though
The current 7 days looks like 82 sectors so anyone with more knowledge want to throw their 2 cents in if this is good going or not ?

2019 saw MCY handle around 1,000,000 passenger movements with around 86 flights per week in and out or 172 movements
One would would imagine AB will need to be selling 150,000 seats per month to have good loads on their full launch network

[PoppaJo]

Come back on Jan 1. That’s what the guy funding this thing said. Profitable from Year 2. Doesn’t sound as keen to p!ss cash down the drain like the striped cat did for 13 years.

[SHVC]

Looks like AB has just clocked over 100,000 seats sold as of this week
Around 550 sectors assuming flights fully booked, which is unlikely though
The current 7 days looks like 82 sectors so anyone with more knowledge want to throw their 2 cents in if this is good going or not ?

2019 saw MCY handle around 1,000,000 passenger movements with around 86 flights per week in and out or 172 movements
One would would imagine AB will need to be selling 150,000 seats per month to have good loads on their full launch network

Those figures came from Aviation Australia. We all know how accurate they are.

[Deano969]

100,000 seats came from Bonza
82 Sectors came from Flightradar24 and Bonza app

[MickG0105]

Back of the napkin, 100,000 seats sold at a generous average of say $75 per seat would have generated $7.5 million in revenue. Their aircraft leasing costs alone for their four jet fleet would run to around $1.5 million a month. Given the staggered fleet delivery their leasing costs to date would be in the order of $5.4 million.

Mature state, with an all leased fleet, you'd expect leasing costs to be between 10 - 20 percent of total operating costs, maybe a smidge higher depending on how tightly they've ratcheted down their other expense lines.

[Australopithecus]

I think your leasing costs might be a tad light. 737Max8 are going for around $340,000 US/month.

The entire 777Partners’ (the number comes from their street address, not the plane, btw) various enterprises business models seems to be to sell at a loss every seat (plane, football stadium) and somehow make a profit on volume. I cannot even imagine how they could tart this portfolio of holdings up for an IPO.

[MickG0105]

I think your leasing costs might be a tad light. 737Max8 are going for around $340,000 US/month.

Agreed. I was working on the basis that the leases were likely struck around mid-2022 and that Bonz has an effective foreign exchange hedge in place.

There is no doubt that their actual leasing costs could be significantly higher. With only ten more seats than the VA and QF B738s and no J class, not only will load factors be important but it will mean that utilisation is critically important also.

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

[PoppaJo]

The rates are likely cheap, the recent repo drama had rates around 250k/month. They have been only taking abandoned leases also, so the going rate is likely less as Boeing tries to clear those problem aircraft. Those days are gone, with some production delays hitting both Airbus and now Boeing, as seen with the Flair Repo aircraft, they are gone quick smart to other parties who will pay a higher price.

The interesting point raised by the Seattle Times, was that the 2022 order with 777 was never finalised. So they don’t have much in the way of orders outstanding, and with recent payment issues in Canada, would be fair to say Boeing has its eyes elsewhere.

It would be interesting to know if Bonza’s aircraft are all sourced via 777 or another leasing agent. 777 saved 7 aircraft from being repossessed by paying the overdue lease. Seems like a very messy fleet arrangement.

[Deano969]

I get that they are in the red as birds on the ground for months, training and many other start up costs play their part

More so how does selling 100k seats at whatever $$ stand
Considering
100,000 seats would equate to 500ish sectors full or 650ish sectors at 80% LF
They have likely done 100-150 or so flights thus far
They have 84 odd sectors per week currently
Full stage 1 launch would be 160-180 sectors weekly
They seem to be drip feeding more flights weekly though so the weekly number is forever changing
Factor that with no business travel to speak of, advanced bookings would be on the lower side

So does 100,000 seats look good, bad or average ?

To me it looks fairly reasonable any other thoughts ?

[markis10]

I get that they are in the red as birds on the ground for months, training and many other start up costs play their part

More so how does selling 100k seats at whatever $$ stand
Considering
100,000 seats would equate to 500ish sectors full or 650ish sectors at 80% LF
They have likely done 100-150 or so flights thus far
They have 84 odd sectors per week currently
Full stage 1 launch would be 160-180 sectors weekly
They seem to be drip feeding more flights weekly though so the weekly number is forever changing
Factor that with no business travel to speak of, advanced bookings would be on the lower side

So does 100,000 seats look good, bad or average ?

To me it looks fairly reasonable any other thoughts ?


It’s a meaningless statistic without yield, strategic sold 100000s of seats as did jetgo ……

[Mach2point7]

New routes starting each day from 27/03


Indeed. Today noticed that they had three of the four aircraft airborne simultaneously !

[Deano969]

It’s a meaningless statistic without yield, strategic sold 100000s of seats as did jetgo ……

The doomsayers on here have been saying that the regional to regional routes have no chance of getting decent loads
Not interested if $50-$100 fares are viable, AB would have done their homework on this no doubt
AB did say they need 90% LF

The question I'm asking is
100k seats sold, does this equate to relatively full flights ?

[markis10]

The question I'm asking is
100k seats sold, does this equate to relatively full flights ?

And as I said it’s a meaningless statistic , you cannot translate one into the other, for example if you look a week beginning April 1 they have 52 flights into/out if the coast, thats just under 10k of seats. At a guess they have 300k of inventory to fill for MCY on sale, probably a similar number for MEL. Looking at individual flights will probably give a slightly clearer indication, while they have sold out PPP for Easter Thursday, it’s the only destination that is sold out on what is one of the busiest days of the year, NTL and MKY are wide open and selling from $69.

There are no destinations that you could go to on that Thursday and fly back on the Monday from MCY other than MEL. As mentioned by others, even weekends away are not possible if you are looking at Friday & Sunday evening flights to most destinations. They do seem to have some success with their target market - VFR/Holiday traffic, as AVV/MEL flights to MCY the following week are $200-300 during school holidays, still $150-200 less than their competition.

[MickG0105]

Yield aside, what will be interesting is how long it takes them to sell the next 100,000 seats.

Based on the app download statistics they have a shade less than 150,000 Android users and likely a similar number of iOs users. We'll be generous and say 300,000 potential bookers. Some of those bookers will have families, others will not. So Bonza's potential customer pool currently likely sits at around maybe 500,000.

Back of the napkin, averaged out across all routes, Bonz will need every customer in that pool to take at least one return trip a year with them to fill 90 percent of their seats at 120 sectors a week. Not impossible on the face of it, but there will be a capacity constraint at popular times, and as others have noted, their scheduling isn't very conducive to weekend getaways.

As the Zen Master said, "We'll see."

[Zinfandel]

Photo on LinkedIn taken onboard the first MCY-NTL flight shows lots of empty seats and at best 60% of the seats occupied and that includes all the non-revenue pax that they take on every inaugural flight.

[PPRuNeUser01531]

Leave 'em alone........They're having a go........Good luck Bonza!

[Deano969]

It seems Flair have gobbled up another Max destined for Bonza
VH-UDV is now heading off to Canada
Only looks like VH-UMQ still to be delivered out of the 4 that were due, not sure what happened to the other 2

Not sure what to make of this move, 777 must have confidence in Flair to send metal north, but what now for Bonza, unlikely they will be able to cover their start up network with just 5 birds....

[SHVC]

Oh well, does anyone really care if Bonza gets going!

[PoppaJo]

Likely due to Flair having had 4 aircraft repossessed, and they have a busy summer schedule approaching with those aircraft already on sale and flying allocated in the most profitable period of the year.

You might find that this ‘spare’ aircraft they have sitting around will no longer be a spare, perhaps that is now a luxury as the fleet orders with Boeing have fallen apart. The Canadian arm is under pressure now to ensure all lease payments are on time, otherwise we know what happens. 777 doesn’t appear to have injected any cash into it recently, as they only came to the party when a lessor threatened to take another 7 aircraft, then 777 stepped in and paid the bills overnight.

Commentary from Flair seems to indicate they are operating from its own reserves, which is using next months’ cash to pay last months bills. Virgin did that well.

[markis10]

It seems Flair have gobbled up another Max destined for Bonza
VH-UDV is now heading off to Canada
Only looks like VH-UMQ still to be delivered out of the 4 that were due, not sure what happened to the other 2

Not sure what to make of this move, 777 must have confidence in Flair to send metal north, but what now for Bonza, unlikely they will be able to cover their start up network with just 5 birds....

I don’t think there will be further growth in the fleet while the group clearly struggles with cash flow, after all 777 partners never closed that max order they announced :
MSN 44308 (meant to be VH-UQI) ferried BFI-BGR-LFBF on delivery to AIP capital on 1/4/23.

[PoppaJo]

I think you are right. As this court case in Canada rolls on, more details will be revealed, the latest was they got 5 months behind in lease payments. I don't quite know what Flair is suing the lessor for? Bizarre. Likely will drop the case as they won't want financial details revealed to the market. Comments around "we couldn't afford to wet lease 4 more aircraft" when they got repossessed also highlights the cash crunch, so they took the Bonza aircraft instead. Other news out this week has Flair wet leasing one A320 for summer. Fair to say Bonza won't be getting anymore aircraft anytime soon. Flair going bust would certainly provide Bonza with a fleet boost, likely a watch this space, certainly looks like it's heading that way.

[markis10]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/bonza-chair-departs-three-months-after-first-flight-to-pursue-new-ventures-20230411-p5czja.html

The executive chairman of fledgling budget carrier Bonza has departed three months after the airline’s first flight, as its financial backer prepares to launch new aviation projects overseas.

Former Virgin Australia executive and 777 Partners aviation investments principal Richard “Rick” Howell walked away from his role at Bonza on March 30, documents lodged with the corporate regulator show.

[SHVC]

How is the 100,000 tickets looking.

[tossbag]

Be interesting to see the number of paying pax on the inaugural YBMC-YPMQ flight.

[MickG0105]

Be interesting to see the number of paying pax on the inaugural YBMC-YPMQ flight.
YBSU?

[tossbag]

Yeah, that place that used to be YBMC! Or maybe it used to be ABMC?

[Charlie Foxtrot India]

Any more personal attacks and this thread will be deleted

[markis10]

Will be interesting to see how long MEL-BDB lasts, $59 fares and wide open seat map in the first week of ops.

[PoppaJo]

Will be interesting to see how long MEL-BDB lasts, $59 fares and wide open seat map in the first week of ops.
Seat Maps actually look pretty solid Melbourne to Bundy in May. Do you mean another route?

I think those Melbourne to FNQ routes might have legs. Might be a few missed Jetstar opportunities on a few of these, Sunny to Cairns looks like a winner (the other Cairns routes perhaps not), Avalon to Sunny another one. I think Avalon to Cairns would be an option too.

Albury and Mildura to Sunny also looks good. Very interesting if they prove successful, will hopefully change the game a bit in the regional loco space, that does rely on Bonza actually surviving but.

As they have said, trial and error is the game here. Half look pretty good, the other half look a bit ugly. The bad half will drag the whole operation however.

[Deano969]

With the 27 routes they announced for the launch one would assume that they would have anticipated a few fails along with some wins
I really believe AB could well find themselves in the box seat
Giving the underperforming routes a couple of months to gain traction, then, if still failing, go to their plan B routes
If they end up with 25 or so viable routes, then they will move onto phase 2 in a strong position

TBH I can't see many more unserved pairs
Hobart or Launceston to Sunny Coast, though these would likely be part of their plan B rather than phase 2
Albion Park (with a terminal upgrade) possibly, Port Headland or Broome perhaps

I still believe phase 2 would be going heads up against JQ on the holiday market
I really can't imagine QF/JQ competing on ABs launch routes as most will only ever be 2-4 flights per week
I also believe AB knows exactly what to expect from QF/JQ when they have a crack and have a plan....

[DJ737]

Darwin-Hobart non-stop is the only capital city route not currently served by any of the majors, could be coupled with Sunny Coast-Darwin & Hobart-Sunny Coast to form a triangle route operated 3x weekly each way.

[tossbag]

Darwin-Hobart non-stop is the only capital city route not currently served by any of the majors, could be coupled with Sunny Coast-Darwin & Hobart-Sunny Coast to form a triangle route operated 3x weekly each way.

Now, that is an interesting concept :D​​​​​​​

[logansi]

Many days their MEL-MCY services are sold out. Hopefully, this gives them a bit of confidence to maybe go after some other routes served by JQ.

In the current market, selling 186 seats a day on routes JQ serve 3-4 times a day should be achievable.

MCY-Albury doing surprisingly well I hear. They are offering as a really cheap, quick option to visit the snow - something you can't do easily from SE QLD.

[markis10]

Many days their MEL-MCY services are sold out. Hopefully, this gives them a bit of confidence to maybe go after some other routes served by JQ.

In the current market, selling 186 seats a day on routes JQ serve 3-4 times a day should be achievable.

MCY-Albury doing surprisingly well I hear. They are offering as a really cheap, quick option to visit the snow - something you can't do easily from SE QLD.

They operate MEL - MCY once a week and it’s not sold out in April or May, probably was last week with holidays otherwise it’s $79, this weeks return flight is sold out as the Mexicans return south but it’s hardly breaking records

[MickG0105]

They operate MEL - MCY once a week and it’s not sold out in April or May, probably was last week with holidays otherwise it’s $79, this weeks return flight is sold out as the Mexicans return south but it’s hardly breaking records
The Bonz does three MCY-AVV returns a week as well as the once a week MCY-MEL return.

[markis10]

The Bonz does three MCY-AVV returns a week as well as the once a week MCY-MEL return.

None of which were sold out when I checked outbound, think one inbound was due holidays but the same comment still stands. Loads during holidays are the cream, not an indication of an average week.

[DJ737]

I am off to WTB from MEL on Wednesday for the ride, will report back on loads, the seat maps aren't looking great right now, probably about 40 occupied on the outbound, haven't checked the inbound, but some people are probably too tight to pay for seat assignment and will just get a random assignment at check in.

[Mr_App]

Out of the 27 routes it looks like about half are good. Likely underestimated the snow traffic with Albury, expect the other players to jump on that next year. Twice a week could be scaled up to a near daily service.

Perhaps some of those not so good routes would do better with a change in flight timings, QLD Leisure traffic 8pm-12am during the week is dead, not sure why they are flying Sunny to Proserpine, Cairns at 8pm mid week. Transcontinental is a goldmine at the moment, can't shy away from that forever.

[Zinfandel]

Bonza are following Jetstars prices…so much for them saying $49 per hour. They are pricing their airfares within $30 to $50 of what JQ are pricing from BNE to North QLD.
Case in point. CNS to BNE next Friday 28 April. On Monday the AB fair to MCY was $99. JQ at almost the save time into BNE was $129. 24 hrs later the AB fair to MCY was $139 and JQ to BNE $179. Today the AB fair to MCY $199 and JQ and VA were $234 to BNE.

[missy]

If I was running Bonza then I'd be querying the Terminal Navigation charges. According to the Airservices Flight Costing Results calculator the Terminal Navigation charges for Sunshine Coast are more than double the charges of Brisbane and Gold Coast.

[Deano969]

Bonza are following Jetstars prices…so much for them saying $49 per hour. They are pricing their airfares within $30 to $50 of what JQ are pricing from BNE to North QLD.
Case in point. CNS to BNE next Friday 28 April. On Monday the AB fair to MCY was $99. JQ at almost the save time into BNE was $129. 24 hrs later the AB fair to MCY was $139 and JQ to BNE $179. Today the AB fair to MCY $199 and JQ and VA were $234 to BNE.

This shows how AB, JQ and VA are filling their flights
Like any airline get in early for the cheap seats

[DJ737]

Went up to Toowoomba yesterday from MEL and there were only about 40 pax, the fight then formed the inaugural flight from WTB to TSV, not sure how many were on that one however the return to Toowoomba was packed judging by the amount of people getting off, the return to MEL yesterday afternoon was at about 70% capacity.

[PoppaJo]

If I was running Bonza then I'd be querying the Terminal Navigation charges. According to the Airservices Flight Costing Results calculator the Terminal Navigation charges for Sunshine Coast are more than double the charges of Brisbane and Gold Coast.
Likely signed a contract with reduced charges etc. New startups generally go where the incentives and subsidies are, Tiger did the same, took million dollar grants from both Victoria and South Australia. I doubt they are paying those higher fees, they just wouldn’t be there. AirAsia at Avalon was fee free for the first couple of years for its 10 year deal.

The issue will be later on when contracts start being re negotiated, fees/charges start climbing. Councils are notorious for this behaviour, they will see Bonza as a good way to push revenue and double charges overnight. Very common in Europe, and Ryanair generally plays hard ball and closes bases then re opens later when they come back to the table.

[missy]

Likely signed a contract with reduced charges etc. New startups generally go where the incentives and subsidies are, Tiger did the same, took million dollar grants from both Victoria and South Australia. I doubt they are paying those higher fees, they just wouldn’t be there. AirAsia at Avalon was fee free for the first couple of years for its 10 year deal.

The issue will be later on when contracts start being re negotiated, fees/charges start climbing. Councils are notorious for this behaviour, they will see Bonza as a good way to push revenue and double charges overnight. Very common in Europe, and Ryanair generally plays hard ball and closes bases then re opens later when they come back to the table.
Hi, perhaps my post was vague, I was referring to the AsA Air Traffic Control charges to use the airspace - Terminal Navigation charges, these are different to the Enroute charges, and any charges the airport (publicly listed, privately or Council owned) may charge. Unsure whether AsA offer "honeymoon rates".

[markis10]

Local news in Toowoomba are reporting Bonza flew 1000 pax out of WTB in the first week of ops (8 flights).

[10JQKA]

Hi, perhaps my post was vague, I was referring to the AsA Air Traffic Control charges to use the airspace - Terminal Navigation charges, these are different to the Enroute charges, and any charges the airport (publicly listed, privately or Council owned) may charge. Unsure whether AsA offer "honeymoon rates".

wellcamp in class G, TSV done by RAAF and the others mostly TIBA/TRA these days so can't imagine they'd be charging much for no service ?

[TBM-Legend]

Local news in Toowoomba are reporting Bonza flew 1000 pax out of WTB in the first week of ops (8 flights).

about 60% load factor if that true. How many inbound on the 8 flights???

[aviation_enthus]

Local news in Toowoomba are reporting Bonza flew 1000 pax out of WTB in the first week of ops (8 flights).

I would expect (MEL) to go daily (or more) pretty quickly.

TSV/CNS not so much. But there could be other destinations they could add Eg Adelaide.

[34R]

If I was running Bonza then I'd be querying the Terminal Navigation charges. According to the Airservices Flight Costing Results calculator the Terminal Navigation charges for Sunshine Coast are more than double the charges of Brisbane and Gold Coast.

If they’re charging that much they can bloody well leave the tower open a bit later than they currently do……

[DJ737]

Went on the inaugural today from Melbourne to Tamworth and return, most of the pax that went up came back on the return with a few exceptions. Hopefully patronage will improve for this route but I doubt it, except during country music festival time, probably needs Jetstar to replace Qantaslink from Sydney on this route with it's connections from other ports.

[Captn Rex Havack]

Saw them take a decent load of MEL to MCY last week- probably about 60%.. Twas more than I expected.

[TBM-Legend]

Saw them take a decent load of MEL to MCY last week- probably about 60%.. Twas more than I expected.

interesting. I wonder how many freebies? Same MEL to WTB

[Mr_App]

The flights are empty, why is anyone surprised? We have now entered the per capita recession. I don't think the RBA are finished yet either.

[dejapoo]

wellcamp in class G, TSV done by RAAF and the others mostly TIBA/TRA these days so can't imagine they'd be charging much for no service ?

Those clowns in the Vile should be PAYING people for their disservice, not the other way round.

[LostWanderer]

The flights are empty, why is anyone surprised? We have now entered the per capita recession. I don't think the RBA are finished yet either.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the pain to come, not just for Bonza but all airlines will be much worse than a lot seem to be expecting. The post covid music is about to stop, make sure you have a seat when it does.

[Al E. Vator]

Geez what a miserable few posts. Air travel is here to stay, recessions come and go and, if there is a recession and if it is sufficiently deep, the leanest will survive.
Australia is in good shape financially, the minerals-based prosperity continues, migration is increasing and people want/need to travel.
No airline, regardless of its size, is immune to collapse particularly if bloated and inefficient (eg: Ansett)
However, Qantas will survive as it has shareholder support. Bonza's loads are healthy (not 'empty') and even if they were, the airline appears flexible enough, with minimal comparative overheads to redeploy to more viable routes.
Virgin, Alliance, Network etc all have the covid-learnt ability to downsize appropriately when needed.
Have watched PPrune since Jetstar, Virgin and Alliance started, would love a buck for each time some miserable Prune expert guaranteed their demise.

[Mach2point7]

Great to see Bonza getting its aircraft utilization up. Becoming more common to have all four aircraft operating on any one day. And six sectors per aircraft per day being frequent.

[topend3]

One wonders how many people want to fly from Melbourne direct to Gladstone.

[tossbag]

mmmm, ****all I'd think.

[RENURPP]

I have no money in this game.

The ground handlers at Rocky tell me that the BONZA flights have good loads.
Personally I hope that is accurate.

[Mr_App]

Tamworth, Wellcamp, Coffs, Proserpine flights not doing that flash among others. You cannot make money from 4 aircraft even if the whole lot are operating full. I see you cannot book online past October. They obviously have cash to burn if they want to put up with some of those failures for another 5 months.

[dragon man]

Tamworth, Wellcamp, Coffs, Proserpine flights not doing that flash among others. You cannot make money from 4 aircraft even if the whole lot are operating full. I see you cannot book online past October. They obviously have cash to burn if they want to put up with some of those failures for another 5 months.

I have no doubt you are correct but really hope what it means doesn’t pan out.

[10JQKA]

2026 when Western Sydney International Airport starts could improve things maybe ?

[PoppaJo]

777 partners have very questionable aircraft on order, that 66 aircraft order was never firmed up, and the remaining firm order appears gone when they stopped taking aircraft late last year which left Boeing running around trying to find homes for a dozen aircraft.

Its Canadian arm seems to operate on the model, pay last months bills with next months revenue. That will likely be troublesome when the American summer comes to a close, so perhaps some aircraft opportunities from over the pacific when that falls apart in the not too far future.

[markis10]

Next two Bonza birds are now headed to Poland to fly with enter air, still in Bonza paint, the former VH-UBI (SP-EXE) & VH-UJZ (SP-EXF)

[PoppaJo]

Not ideal. They are having some issues at the moment with engineering. One aircraft down over the last few days, well that’s a quarter of the schedule gone. The struggle is the next flight isn’t for multiple days.

Would be fair to say that Seattle has cut off 777 partners. Many lessors got a fright with the repossessions in Canada, they might have some issues trying to source aircraft going forward.

[markis10]

They are starting to get the bad publicity, article is behind a paywall https://www.thechronicle.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TCWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thechronicle.com.au%2Fnews%2Fcheap-flights-mean-nothing-passengers-call-out-new-airline%2Fnews-story%2F6df79c044277718a7e8a8f364fd0e909&memtype=anonymous&mode=premiumDeeply sorry’: Passengers call out new airline over cancellationsA new airline branded as “Australia’s new, and only independent, low cost airline servicing regional domestic routes” has come under fire after it cancelled a flight with minimal notice provided.

[TBM-Legend]

Mess with the Toowoomba travelling public and a drive to Brisbane is an option. It seems that Bonza has no backup and poor communication with customers. One family looks like waiting 21 days for a refund as they were travelling for their son’s sport and $1500 out of pocket on accommodation and car rental.

[PoppaJo]

This country needs to toughen up the rules around compensation in regards to delays or cancellations.

You purchase a flight. They cancel. You then spend multiple thousands getting to the destination because the original carrier could not in a reasonable time frame. A flight 3/4 days later doesn’t cut it. That original carrier needs to pay the entire cost involved. Some countries do it a bit easier, they just get a lump sum.

[UnderneathTheRadar]

This country needs to toughen up the rules around compensation in regards to delays or cancellations.

You purchase a flight. They cancel. You then spend multiple thousands getting to the destination because the original carrier could not in a reasonable time frame. A flight 3/4 days later doesn’t cut it. That original carrier needs to pay the entire cost involved. Some countries do it a bit easier, they just get a lump sum.

But isn't that what travel insurance is for? I'm not saying compensation shouldn't be payable - but then ticket prices will rise considerably. At least with travel insurance you have a choice to pay the premium or take your chances. Too many people not paying the premium then complaining when their 'bargain' ticket option falls apart.

[TBM-Legend]

This country needs to toughen up the rules around compensation in regards to delays or cancellations.

You purchase a flight. They cancel. You then spend multiple thousands getting to the destination because the original carrier could not in a reasonable time frame. A flight 3/4 days later doesn’t cut it. That original carrier needs to pay the entire cost involved. Some countries do it a bit easier, they just get a lump sum.


people forget that airlines only sell one product and that is time. The travel game changer that aviation brought to the table was time otherwise ships, trains cars and horses would be ok. Frequency equals time too. Bonza has no Plan B for disrupts unlike most others. They could have ACMI’d at least one aircraft as backup until they got settled down. The fell for the playbook that says new ships are ultra- reliable which does not take into account things like bird strikes (last Saturday at MCY), wx, or ramp damage or oh dear.

if you’re not reliable with good recoveries then no matter how cheap the fare is people walk

[PoppaJo]

I think the local management here did have the right intentions, they did had a spare aircraft and did state that on the record. However the investor then crushed that plan and sent it to Canada last month to deal with those repossession problems.

Issue seems to be, relations with lessors have deteriorated. A image did surface of a Bonza jet with interior kitted out, in Poland the other day, for another operator.

Tiger destroyed its image in a matter of months with similar fleet planning issues. Except back then they didn’t even offer compensation, executive told the customers to buy travel insurance and stiff. Word spreads pretty fast in some these smaller regional areas so they might need to be careful, pull back the schedule and get that spare aircraft at the ready. They do seem proactive so I would say it’s on the agenda.

[TBM-Legend]

I think the local management here did have the right intentions, they did had a spare aircraft and did state that on the record. However the investor then crushed that plan and sent it to Canada last month to deal with those repossession problems.

Issue seems to be, relations with lessors have deteriorated. A image did surface of a Bonza jet with interior kitted out, in Poland the other day, for another operator.

Tiger destroyed its image in a matter of months with similar fleet planning issues. Except back then they didn’t even offer compensation, executive told the customers to buy travel insurance and stiff. Word spreads pretty fast in some these smaller regional areas so they might need to be careful, pull back the schedule and get that spare aircraft at the ready. They do seem proactive so I would say it’s on the agenda.

Lessors are businesses that provide aircraft on an agreed arrangement. No pay = no play. No service = no customers.
Very simple so as I said what is Plan B? Maybe operate a three aircraft schedule with a reserve. Leave people stranded without options of immediate compensation then other alternatives are available and faith and trust lost = business failure

[PoppaJo]

They are screwed either way. Cut back 25% of the schedule, bad press and customer backlash. Live and hope everyday each aircraft doesn’t require engineering? That’s a fantasy. Need to build some slack into any operation these days considering the supply chain delays should one require a non local available part. Could be a week to two wait for a supplier in the US to get a part out.

The priority seems to be its Canadian outfit. If they have been cut off from all aircraft orders, remains to be seen what is the actual future. Don’t underestimate those delayed leasing repayments, will make it very hard trying to build a fleet if Boeing has wiped any current orders in the system, as the Seattle Times speculated at.

[markis10]

Lessors are businesses that provide aircraft on an agreed arrangement. No pay = no play. No service = no customers.
Very simple so as I said what is Plan B? Maybe operate a three aircraft schedule with a reserve. Leave people stranded without options of immediate compensation then other alternatives are available and faith and trust lost = business failure

Interestingly the two aircraft now in Poland have different owners as far as lessors go.

[43Inches]

people forget that airlines only sell one product and that is time. The travel game changer that aviation brought to the table was time otherwise ships, trains cars and horses would be ok. Frequency equals time too. Bonza has no Plan B for disrupts unlike most others. They could have ACMI’d at least one aircraft as backup until they got settled down. The fell for the playbook that says new ships are ultra- reliable which does not take into account things like bird strikes (last Saturday at MCY), wx, or ramp damage or oh dear.

Actually not quite true, while time is a major factor, large aircraft are far cheaper to run than trains and ships over distance. The capital costs to keep longer distance railways running in the modern world does not compete with that of running a few KM of runways, terminals and what are essentially economical flying busses. Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments. The only ships and such that make a semblance of profit are huge bulk carriers or premium cruise ships. Try catching a taxi from Melbourne to Sydney, even with 5 on board its not going to be a competitive price with an airline.

[Lead Balloon]

So who ‘heavily subsidises’ the ships that bring most of Australia’s fuel supply to Australia? Are you labouring under the misconception that they are ‘huge bulk carriers’?

And the container ships that bring in most of Australia’s imported goods?

All of these ship pay a big bag of gold to the Commonwealth as shipping levies, based on their tonnage and the amount of fuel carried (whether as cargo or for ‘own use’).

[TBM-Legend]

Actually not quite true, while time is a major factor, large aircraft are far cheaper to run than trains and ships over distance. The capital costs to keep longer distance railways running in the modern world does not compete with that of running a few KM of runways, terminals and what are essentially economical flying busses. Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments. The only ships and such that make a semblance of profit are huge bulk carriers or premium cruise ships. Try catching a taxi from Melbourne to Sydney, even with 5 on board its not going to be a competitive price with an airline.

it’s not always about price. In 1989 people took taxis or chartered aircraft to SYD.

not happy if your flight is seriously delayed or canceled if you need to be somewhere. Four in your car can work depending on the destination

[43Inches]

So who ‘heavily subsidises’ the ships that bring most of Australia’s fuel supply to Australia? Are you labouring under the misconception that they are ‘huge bulk carriers’?

And the container ships that bring in most of Australia’s imported goods?

All of these ship pay a big bag of gold to the Commonwealth as shipping levies, based on their tonnage and the amount of fuel carried (whether as cargo or for ‘own use’).

It was simplifying big ships into bulk carriers ie they carry extremely large amounts, oil tankers and large freighters, container vessels and such all carry bulk loads, that is extremely large loads at small amounts per kg. Aircraft are just not large enough to handle such loads, so watercraft are still the only method.

The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.

[Icarus2001]

Trains and ships are heavily subsidized in almost all countries either in infrastructure or direct payments.

​​​​​​​ The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.

You really need to do more than a google search about shipping.

As Lead Balloon asked, who is subsidising these box ships to Australia?

​​​​​​​You also may want to google for GREEK SHIPPING TYCOON.

[Lead Balloon]

The ships themselves are not the money makers in the transport chain, the goods they carry are.Sometimes you crack me up, 43.

You do know the ship owners charge money to carry those goods, don’t you? And if the goods weren’t carried to their market on ships, the goods would be less valuable if not worthless?

[43Inches]

Shipping is interwoven into the trade network, like trucks the true cost of infrastructure and such is born by the governments to enable reliable trade markets. Airports have been divested because international aviation can self sustain without much intervention.

An aircraft just needs two runways at either end of the flight, navigation facilities, which are now gps based, so pretty cheap, and en-route control, which is ever reducing. Shipping requires clear, safe, maintained lanes of operation, port control with a huge complement of specialized staff, tugs, security and so on. Just like the question of who pays for the roads that trucks roll on, who pays for all the marine infrastructure ships use, that's where the subsidies come from. Rail now has to pay it's own way and you can see how the cost of a single line between Melbourne and Brisbane is ballooning massively. Once it's operational it will cost further billions to maintain with multitudes of staff to maintain and run the tracks.

As for the shipping magnates, there's barely any Greeks left on the list, Maersk is now the top line. The Greek families that ran the large shipping industries all made most of the family money back when shipping was king pre ww2, now most have dwindled. Yes you will make money off the huge ships, as they can move a 'ship'load of stuff. Try making money off a ferry or small logistics vessel.

There's good reason that a great deal of ships are registered in third world countries with crews from the same and look like the rust barely holds them together. Obviously a cruise liner or top end freighter that ships fragile/time sensitive stuff will make money, the rest, well, yeah....

[tossbag]

An aircraft just needs two runways at either end of the flight, navigation facilities, which are now gps based, so pretty cheap, and en-route control

****! Is that all you need? Better tell Sydney airport the 10's of thousands of people employed there are not required.

I used to think you were pretty smart and switched on and your comments pretty accurate...........nah, I never thought that, I was being sarcastic.

[43Inches]

****! Is that all you need? Better tell Sydney airport the 10's of thousands of people employed there are not required.

I used to think you were pretty smart and switched on and your comments pretty accurate...........nah, I never thought that, I was being sarcastic.

Um you do know that the airport has hundreds of ancillary businesses that are not related to aircraft movements at all, shipping ports generally don't run shopping centers, massive carparks, bus services,etc etc etc. Ther'es probably a small fraction actually dedicated to dispatching aircraft, that is if you went to a country airstrip that services a Boeing you might need 20 staff maximum, 5 or so for a turboprop.

When a politician (or the airport) quotes how many jobs it supports it generally includes even the taxis that sit in the stand outside and so on, and really just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.

The shipping companies that make billions are companies with diverse holdings and capture large % of the global market. MSC and Maersk alone own around 35% of the global container (TEU) capacity.

[Lead Balloon]

And who is heavily subsidising them?

[43Inches]

And who is heavily subsidising them?

Budget spend on maritime infrastructure last year and pretty much stable for the last ten years is just under $500million, with Aviation spending dropping below $280 million. The cost of dredging Port Phillip bay for larger freighters alone cost around $1 Billion a few years back. The operators pay about $100 a container and 20c per GT to cover existing infrastructure running costs.

Interesting to note the differences in international trade, ships transport around 11 billion tons annually valued at $14 trillion USD. Aviation only transports around 52 million tons at a value of $6 trillion.

Just like other bulk goods you have to do a lot of shipping to make money, but because only a relatively small group of companies own most of the capacity they make a lot of cash doing it.

Try buying a freighter and compete in the international market and see how much you make, if you can even get the capital to start. The Australian government even has tax incentive schemes to try to get local ships moving. I would suggest that many of the other large shippers get some form of kickbacks that help them along as well in fee and charge discounts at various ports around the world, its all corporate businesses and in constant negotiation.

I found some old stats that Maersk makes around $1500 USD revenue on an average FFE (2 x TEU) container, with around $50 USD profit. There might be up to 8,000 FFE on a ship so thats around $400,000 per trip compared to $12,000,000 revenue. Not a lot of margin for a lot of cash trading hands.

[Icarus2001]

and really just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.

Now what does Warren Buffet think about aviation?

[Zinfandel]

According to Australian Aviation today, AB are looking to expand their network!

The TL refueller has heard that AB have to tried to engage operators to assist with AOG’s etc, but the operators have said no.

[Mr_App]

Interestingly the two aircraft now in Poland have different owners as far as lessors go.
I am fairly sure the way it works, is that 777 Partners act as the "middle man". They lease large amount of aircraft from the leasing companies, then use that pool to re lease onward to it's investments. But it looks like that 777 isn't paying the monthly lease bill, the airline needs to co ordinate that payment with the initial leasing company, that is where it fell apart in Canada. In return, it looks like they have then walked away from 777 Partners, leaving about 2 or 3 aircraft on order via other misc smaller leasing firms.

777 own 100% in regards to Bonza so that might play out differently perhaps in regards to sourcing more aircraft, its Canada offshoot they only hold about 25%.

[Colonel_Klink]

But isn't that what travel insurance is for? I'm not saying compensation shouldn't be payable - but then ticket prices will rise considerably. At least with travel insurance you have a choice to pay the premium or take your chances. Too many people not paying the premium then complaining when their 'bargain' ticket option falls apart.

That isn’t the experience in Europe where there are strict compensation laws for delays and cancelations yet multiple examples of ULCC offering extremely cheap fairs.

[Lead Balloon]

[R]eally just emphasizes my point that aviation is much better at making money than shipping.More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.

[MickG0105]

More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.
That neatly sums up the difference between non-discretionary and discretionary revenue streams. Businesses that can tap into the former are typically lower margin.

[43Inches]

More comedy gold! Thanks for another belly laugh, 43.

Without the shipping industry, half the world would freeze and half the world would starve. That’s why the shipping industry makes money. It’s ‘needed’, in the economic sense. Without it, lots and lots of people die.

Without the aviation industry, there’d be no aviation industry. It’s merely ‘wanted’ in the economic sense. Much of the commercial aviation industry that isn’t government subsidised is effectively a Ponzi scheme and that’s why Warren Buffet says what he has to say about it.

The shipping industry isn't going anywhere, soon that is, as the technology to move the goods of that quantity is not available yet in other means, however, ships are expensive and not particularly efficient. They are only 'cheap' because of the sheer size of the vessels and the quantity they carry. If you were to create an aircraft that carried the same as a mega freighter the scale would make it cheaper to operate than the equivalant ship. Hence why they have tried to pursue options like ekranoplans and airships. There is also further crunch on fuel to move to less polluting higher refined fuels and biofuels as well as LNG, which is driving costs upwards. Some stats that show the increasing cost base of shipping is that over the last 20 years the accepted minimum cost effective load went from 4000 TEU to 8000 TEU, from 8000 TEU onwards the cost per container starts to be a gentle decline that still favours bigger ships but is acceptable. This is the reason the companies push for bigger ships now well in excess of 20,000 TEUs. Which means the governments have to dredge deeper channels, and provide larger port facilities as well as the ship building nations offering subsidized ship building as well as tax incentives. All part of the way countries subsidize the industry overall.

That being said there is another debt crunch coming for the container industry with China and Korea offering heavily subsidized ship building to offer replacements for what is an ageing fleet stagnated over the last 20 years due to costs. The next few years will see over capacity and losses return especially to the Asia/Pacific markets. There's already data that the Singapore-Euro market has fallen to below cost freight prices.

In the US some rail sectors are making good money, but its a distorted market as the government effectively gave away rail assets a while back and we havn't got to the stage that mass replacement of infrastructure and upgrades are required. So companies are skimming the cream off what the tax payer had paid for year. Just like Melbourne Airport is finding out how much it is just to replace aging taxiways after they had wasted millions on carparks.

The overall freight industry got a massive boost during covid, but it's about to have a big adjustment.

[Lead Balloon]

What’s the size of the fortune you’ve made out of the aviation industry?

[43Inches]

What’s the size of the fortune you’ve made out of the aviation industry?

Me personally? A few Million, and that's being honest. Ask AJ how much he's made from the aviation industry. There's a few of us that are quite happy with our lot in Aviation. I've even made money on GA aircraft, it's about getting the right equipment for the right job and not getting emotional about wanting the biggest or fastest etc etc... I've even operated large boats, but not quite ships, but a few mates have owned fishing fleets, ferries and stuff. As far as the Warren Buffets and such, we're talking extreme money there.

[havick]

The shipping industry isn't going anywhere, soon that is, as the technology to move the goods of that quantity is not available yet in other means, however, ships are expensive and not particularly efficient. They are only 'cheap' because of the sheer size of the vessels and the quantity they carry. If you were to create an aircraft that carried the same as a mega freighter the scale would make it cheaper to operate than the equivalant ship. Hence why they have tried to pursue options like ekranoplans and airships. There is also further crunch on fuel to move to less polluting higher refined fuels and biofuels as well as LNG, which is driving costs upwards. Some stats that show the increasing cost base of shipping is that over the last 20 years the accepted minimum cost effective load went from 4000 TEU to 8000 TEU, from 8000 TEU onwards the cost per container starts to be a gentle decline that still favours bigger ships but is acceptable. This is the reason the companies push for bigger ships now well in excess of 20,000 TEUs. Which means the governments have to dredge deeper channels, and provide larger port facilities as well as the ship building nations offering subsidized ship building as well as tax incentives. All part of the way countries subsidize the industry overall.

That being said there is another debt crunch coming for the container industry with China and Korea offering heavily subsidized ship building to offer replacements for what is an ageing fleet stagnated over the last 20 years due to costs. The next few years will see over capacity and losses return especially to the Asia/Pacific markets. There's already data that the Singapore-Euro market has fallen to below cost freight prices.

In the US some rail sectors are making good money, but its a distorted market as the government effectively gave away rail assets a while back and we havn't got to the stage that mass replacement of infrastructure and upgrades are required. So companies are skimming the cream off what the tax payer had paid for year. Just like Melbourne Airport is finding out how much it is just to replace aging taxiways after they had wasted millions on carparks.

The overall freight industry got a massive boost during covid, but it's about to have a big adjustment.

Fedex is parking some aircraft, also announced closing europe domiciles etc just as one other litmus test of what’s going on with freight

[Lead Balloon]

Me personally? A few Million, and that's being honest. Ask AJ how much he's made from the aviation industry. There's a few of us that are quite happy with our lot in Aviation. I've even made money on GA aircraft, it's about getting the right equipment for the right job and not getting emotional about wanting the biggest or fastest etc etc... I've even operated large boats, but not quite ships, but a few mates have owned fishing fleets, ferries and stuff. As far as the Warren Buffets and such, we're talking extreme money there.Consistently with that old saying about aviation, I’d characterise “a few million” as “a small fortune”. Well done!

Is ‘AJ’ that guy who runs a heavily government subsidised airline?

[SIUYA]

Is ‘AJ’ that guy who runs a heavily government subsidised airline?

Not sure about running it LB, unless you mean running it into the ground.

He's certainly been paid very handsomely to do that though.

[MickG0105]

... If you were to create an aircraft that carried the same as a mega freighter the scale would make it cheaper to operate than the equivalant ship. Hence why they have tried to pursue options like ekranoplans and airships.
​​​​​​...

Easily one of the most stupid things I have ever read, completely ignorant to the basic physics associated with each mode of transportation.

[43Inches]

Easily one of the most stupid things I have ever read, completely ignorant to the basic physics associated with each mode of transportation.

The physics is what makes shipping so costly, you are pushing through water the weight of the ship, water also limits the top speed without costing too much fuel. Hence Hydrofoils and Ekranoplans were concepts that are still being looked at today, although other issues come up when you try and fly multi thousand tons at low level at high speed. Hydrofoils and Early Ekranoplans lack the the clearance to operate over rough oceanic areas, the KM while it had a payload of 100 tons it could only fly at 10-20 meters due to its short wingspan, limiting it to relatively flat water areas. At the moment another Russian company is developing a freight Ekranoplan with payload of about 60-80 tons, this one has larger span to operate over oceanic areas.

As far as the physics prohibiting super large aircraft, that is only a limitation of current technology. We also have to remember that ships were limited in size until the 1800s when metallurgy advances allowed the construction on larger hulls and propulsion systems. When the SS Great Britain was floated out of dock in 1845 it was larger than any other ship by 30 mtrs at only 98 mtrs long, and 1000 tons heavier at 3500 ton. Now there are ships over 400 mts and 600,000 tons just over 150 years later. Likewise aircraft are still in development, we might have some stagnation now, but there's still a lot of technology that can be applied. Not saying they will ever reach the carrying ability of the super ships but they definitely can get a lot bigger.

[Deano969]

Never understood why they couldn't run container ships or cruise ships for that matter by nuclear power
Seems to be ok to power subs and aircraft carriers

[43Inches]

Never understood why they couldn't run container ships or cruise ships for that matter by nuclear power
Seems to be ok to power subs and aircraft carriers

Cost, Cost, Cost.... Russia uses nuclear power for its civil arctic fleet as it is more efficient than building conventional breakers and support vessels like ice protected tankers to keep them going. Therefore a breaker can stay on task much longer without support vessels which in turn covers the extra cost of nuclear power. They also have a strengthened hull nuclear freighter to support arctic operations and a few floating nuclear power stations again as support for remote mining and such.

The other more important factor is how much do you trust shipping lines to maintain a fleet of floating nuclear reactors? The EPA is always chasing conventional ships for spill and leaks of oil and biological waste, its a constant war with some of the regular offenders, imagine non algae glowing waters on your shoreline from a coolant leak. Freighters quite regularly sink, catch fire, run aground, even in this modern age and there is still very little to do about it. The floating luxury car carrier that burnt out for days is a good example, it burned for 2 weeks and then sank, add a nuclear reactor to that mess and it would just cap off the environmental disaster that it still is.

[MickG0105]

The physics is what makes shipping so costly, you are pushing through water the weight of the ship, water also limits the top speed without costing too much fuel. Hence Hydrofoils and Ekranoplans were concepts that are still being looked at today, although other issues come up when you try and fly multi thousand tons at low level at high speed. Hydrofoils and Early Ekranoplans lack the the clearance to operate over rough oceanic areas, the KM while it had a payload of 100 tons it could only fly at 10-20 meters due to its short wingspan, limiting it to relatively flat water areas. At the moment another Russian company is developing a freight Ekranoplan with payload of about 60-80 tons, this one has larger span to operate over oceanic areas.

As far as the physics prohibiting super large aircraft, that is only a limitation of current technology. We also have to remember that ships were limited in size until the 1800s when metallurgy advances allowed the construction on larger hulls and propulsion systems. When the SS Great Britain was floated out of dock in 1845 it was larger than any other ship by 30 mtrs at only 98 mtrs long, and 1000 tons heavier at 3500 ton. Now there are ships over 400 mts and 600,000 tons just over 150 years later. Likewise aircraft are still in development, we might have some stagnation now, but there's still a lot of technology that can be applied. Not saying they will ever reach the carrying ability of the super ships but they definitely can get a lot bigger.
Whether you are travelling through water or travelling through air, the basic four forces still apply: thrust, drag, lift/buoyancy, and weight. Archimedes gets his lift (buoyancy) vector essentially for free; simply create the hull shape that generates excess displacement and you're done. Bernoulli only gets his lift vector by applying work (airflow) to an aerofoil; simply creating the appropriate wing doesn't give you lift unless you can get air flowing over it - that means thrust is required. It is the fundamental physics of the medium you are working in.

Ships scale quite easily; aircraft do not. Take a 250,000 tonnes payload; modest by shipping standards. Work out what wing area and how much thrust you would need to lift that. If you could get it to work, it will not be more efficient than a ship.

Unless you want to apply magic to the problem, it is simply impractical. And that's not even factoring in some other basic practical considerations such as undercarriage design, runway and pavement strengths, etc

[43Inches]

Again you are purely thrusting in line with current technology.

You are not getting something for nothing with displacement, as you have displaced the water to carry the load, the ship has to be able to displace that water constantly and move through it efficiently to provide the reliable transport aspect. The environment in which the ship lives is also corrosive to its existence and all it's parts further adding to the complexity of the cost of operation. Displacement is just a well known and easy to work with concept. The problem now is the lack of speed in the method due to hydrodynamic drag being far greater than aerodynamic drag, fly a float plane and you will learn the difference very quickly or end up inverted. Oil producers get around this by having 'product' constantly in motion, and tankers can be diverted en-route to a more profitable destination should that need arise, which is fine if you have one product type.

There is still a lot of engine improvements that can further reduce fuel consumption markedly for aircraft, and allow hotter burn without mixing air to prevent melting hot sections which is the current issue with efficiency. Obviously the metallurgy or ceramics needed are still in development to make them capable of mass production or cheap enough to be viable. But like Battery technology this is constantly evolving, with every new generation of aircraft becoming more efficient in terms of energy use. So not only is scale increasing but there are also huge gains in efficiency happening.

Shipping is already at a size wall for a lot of routes as you can only go so big before the existing canals are too small to navigate. Smaller non specialized ships are already uneconomical and becoming rarer.

A little over 20 years ago I was party to acquiring an ex-Sydney ferry to operate Port Phillip bay, the vessel was in ok condition but required much work to get it to the state we needed it in for the task we wanted. After a survey was completed and costs added up, the static costs of just keeping it afloat without being mobile exceeded the break even costs without it even being operationally crewed and capable of movement, let alone sailing out on the bay. It was much easier to let somebody else try that gamble and it definitely did not pay off for them.

[Lead Balloon]

I get it now.

If Bonza’s aircraft weigh the same as a duck, they must be ships and Bonza is bound to be less profitable.

Warren Buffet has much to learn from you, 43.

[43Inches]

Maybe you should invest in a ferry from Mildura to the Sunshine coast? I have a couple I could sell you.

I forgot to add that all you need to do is lobby the LNP for an inland canal from Victoria to Queensland. It can go alongside the really cost effective inland rail line being built, I means whats another trillion dollars from the tax system.

[tossbag]

It can go alongside the really cost effective inland rail line being built, I means whats another trillion dollars from the tax system.

Inland rail is only ****** because Australians designed and built it. If it was built by Japanese or the Europeans it would be efficient

[havick]

Again you are purely thrusting in line with current technology.

You are not getting something for nothing with displacement, as you have displaced the water to carry the load, the ship has to be able to displace that water constantly and move through it efficiently to provide the reliable transport aspect. The environment in which the ship lives is also corrosive to its existence and all it's parts further adding to the complexity of the cost of operation. Displacement is just a well known and easy to work with concept. The problem now is the lack of speed in the method due to hydrodynamic drag being far greater than aerodynamic drag, fly a float plane and you will learn the difference very quickly or end up inverted. Oil producers get around this by having 'product' constantly in motion, and tankers can be diverted en-route to a more profitable destination should that need arise, which is fine if you have one product type.

There is still a lot of engine improvements that can further reduce fuel consumption markedly for aircraft, and allow hotter burn without mixing air to prevent melting hot sections which is the current issue with efficiency. Obviously the metallurgy or ceramics needed are still in development to make them capable of mass production or cheap enough to be viable. But like Battery technology this is constantly evolving, with every new generation of aircraft becoming more efficient in terms of energy use. So not only is scale increasing but there are also huge gains in efficiency happening.

Shipping is already at a size wall for a lot of routes as you can only go so big before the existing canals are too small to navigate. Smaller non specialized ships are already uneconomical and becoming rarer.

A little over 20 years ago I was party to acquiring an ex-Sydney ferry to operate Port Phillip bay, the vessel was in ok condition but required much work to get it to the state we needed it in for the task we wanted. After a survey was completed and costs added up, the static costs of just keeping it afloat without being mobile exceeded the break even costs without it even being operationally crewed and capable of movement, let alone sailing out on the bay. It was much easier to let somebody else try that gamble and it definitely did not pay off for them.

You lost any credibility when you mentioned purchasing used vessels to make money.

[BigBoreFour]

You know, I was thinking the other day I need to understand shipping and the process a little more. I thought, where could I go?
I know!

To the Bonza AOC thread on an aviation rumour site. There’s bound to be shipping experts there…

[Lead Balloon]

And you were correct! Well done.

[MickG0105]

You know, I was thinking the other day I need to understand shipping and the process a little more. I thought, where could I go?
I know!

To the Bonza AOC thread on an aviation rumour site. There’s bound to be shipping experts there…
I can only imagine that, like me, you were surprised to learn that ...

... ships are expensive and not particularly efficient.

​​​​​And that ...
... If you were to create an aircraft that carried the same as a mega freighter the scale would make it cheaper to operate than the equivalant ship.

​​​​​​​Who'd have thunk it?!

[43Inches]

You lost any credibility when you mentioned purchasing used vessels to make money.

Used vessels can make money, in the specialty area, depends what your market is, the ship, and associated costs. We were not intending to use it as a ferry if that's what you thought, more along the lines of what it's actually become, but slightly different. So far all the Bass Straight ferries have been used ships, the Abel Tasman being around 10 years old when it started Tasmanian service in 85', the original Spirit of Tasmania was 8 years old, and the two Superfast ferries were 4 years old when they started the Bass Straight runs. The next two ships are purpose built and will be new, due to replace the two Superfasts next year.

As for Bonza, their flights look fullish, as always who knows what yields and such are occurring. If they could get most of those pax to repeat custom on higher fares they might just have a business.

[Icarus2001]

If they could get most of those pax to repeat custom on higher fares they might just have a business.

They could fly the four aircraft around full every day, they would still be losing money due to fixed costs.

​​​​​​​Tiger showed and also claimed they needed twenty aircraft to be viable.

[43Inches]

Fact is we have very little idea what their cost base are, and only an inkling of what the revenue is with ticket pricing and apparent loads. And being private we may never know as they are not publicly listed and have no requirement to tell us. So it can only be a guess that they are losing money.

For one I give them little chance of being profitable, however I did not expect to see such loads on these routes even at reduced prices.

[PoppaJo]

You cannot make a viable profitable business from 4 aircraft. Overheads would be significant, and they also have very expensive equipment costs, that is something that Tiger struggled with, they couldn't get the revenue high enough with lease costs north of $300k per month. Don't get too sucked in by the "cheap leases" comments that get thrown around, 250-300k is the going rate per month for a new aircraft cheap lease, as hinted by the recent Flair repossessions, that appears to be the rate Bonza is paying. Lease costs have actually jumped about 20% within the last year across the market, and with continued supply delays, expect that to increase in the medium term.

New fleets also come with an expected reduced engineering spend, eliminating the need for new entrants to bring it in house and simply outsource minor works. That is not always the case either, cost blowouts can come at any moment, Bonza has had multiple multi day groundings in recent weeks.

[MickG0105]

...
As for Bonza, their flights look fullish, ...
How do you know that?

[43Inches]

How do you know that?

Just from people I know who have either flown with them or watched them boarding at various locations. Everyone has commented on the large loads, and the several that have flown with them said they'd do it again if they stick around.

[markis10]

Shouldn’t be long now and we will have the BITRE reporting their real load factors thanks to the unique route structure of Bonza, I expect “fullish” to be sub 50% outside of school holidays

[MickG0105]

Shouldn’t be long now and we will have the BITRE reporting their real load factors thanks to the unique route structure of Bonza, I expect “fullish” to be sub 50% outside of school holidays
I am pretty sure that BITRE won't post passenger data for a route unless there are two or more airlines operating on it in competition. That, and the requirement for the route average to exceed 8,000 passengers per month, are generally their standard caveats for reporting.

[MickG0105]

Grand sample of one: 107 pax on AB777 MCY - PPP this evening.

[TBM-Legend]

Grand sample of one: 107 pax on AB777 MCY - PPP this evening.

that should pay for the fuel. Numbers back??
56% LF too

[PoppaJo]

$29 flights Sunny to Coffs and return tonight.

They said back in Feb breakeven was 90%.

[TBM-Legend]

$29 flights Sunny to Coffs and return tonight.

They said back in Feb breakeven was 90%.


yes, that’s what was said. As the old saying goes “you cannot sell $10 tickets for $9 and stay in business“ or as the late Don Kendal told me “it’s cheaper to go broke on the ground than in the air!”

[markis10]

I am pretty sure that BITRE won't post passenger data for a route unless there are two or more airlines operating on it in competition. That, and the requirement for the route average to exceed 8,000 passengers per month, are generally their standard caveats for reporting.

I wasn’t aware of that, bugger.

[Speed_Tape]

Four months on from Bonza's delayed launch, the budget airline is preparing to expand to a third base as it hopes to buck the trend of failed regional and low-cost carriers.

The Sunshine Coast-based budget airline has been rolling out new routes since February and now flies to 17 mostly regional destinations, with 25 of the 27 routes not flown by other airlines.

Bonza's second hub is in Melbourne, but Bonza chief executive Tim Jordan said strong demand was causing the carrier to look for another base.

"We're certainly looking at growth opportunities in other bases, and also in existing bases, later this year," he said.

Australia has a history of budget and regional carriers that have failed, including Tigerair, JetGo, Compass and OzJet.

Veteran aviation analyst Peter Harbison said the key to low-cost airlines surviving was correcting mistakes quickly.

"You have to watch very, very closely whether something's working or not," he said.

Mr Harbison said Bonza was an "unusual" budget airline because it avoided busy routes such as Sydney to Melbourne in favour of regional destinations such as Mackay, Mildura and Coffs Harbour.

"They're generating new business basically," he said.

But he said it was hard to assess Bonza's progress because "there's not much transparency".

John Sharp, the deputy chairman of competing regional airline Rex, agreed it was hard to comment on Bonza because they were not a publicly listed company and did not publish their data.

A spokesman for Jetstar said the budget airline had been flying for 19 years and "remains committed to being Australia's low fares leader".

Qantas and Virgin declined to comment.

Planes not full
Based on available data, the ABC has calculated that Bonza's planes are about 75 per cent full on average, which is below the 90 per cent target set by Bonza's US owner.

In January, the 777 Partners founder Steve Pasko said the airline needed to operate at near-capacity to maintain profitability, which he predicted would come in the second year of flying.

Mr Harbison said the airline needed to expand to new routes to keep their planes in the air longer.

"If you can keep those aircraft flying for 12 to 15 hours a day, then the unit cost comes down considerably," he said.

"But if they don't have enough routes to fly the aircraft, then that unit cost goes up considerably, and so their break-even cost goes up."

Route changes coming
Bonza is not yet selling tickets for flights past October, but Mr Jordan said the airline would release its schedule covering Christmas and the summer holidays "within weeks".

While some route frequency and timing will change, he sought to assure travellers that no routes would be "imminently" cut.

"What we're trying to do is make sure that we give ourselves the maximum amount of time to learn … and then to reflect that in the schedule going forward," Mr Jordan said.

"We may need to add capacity [or] there may be too much capacity in certain areas."

Mr Jordan said the longer routes had generally been more popular than the shorter routes, which required convincing people to "break a habit" of driving.

Expansion plans
Analyst Mr Harbison nominated Newcastle as an option for Bonza's third hub because the region had a "big catchment".

"It's certainly an ideal spot," he said.

"… Because it does tap that whole Hunter region as well as Northern Sydney all the way up the Central Coast."

A spokesperson for Newcastle Airport said they would "welcome any conversation around establishing airline bases at our airport".

"We look forward to supporting Bonza to grow, and we will welcome conversations to form a strategic partnership when the time comes," the spokesperson said.

Bonza has previously ruled out flying to Sydney Airport because the fees are too expensive and landing slots are too scarce.

From the ABC. Can't post the link

[Deano969]

Not sure that NTL would be a logical next base for AB with minimal tourism and the big cities already with services by QF/JQ and VA
So unless they want to go head to head, which I thought they were trying to avoid
OOL or CNS and likely the latter, would be my guess at a next base linking the same regional ports they now serve or possibly WTB linking capitals
But you can only imaging what they have planned for WSI....

[PoppaJo]

Don’t forget they go where the money is with regards to new bases. Adelaide and Melbourne are generally the front runners when it comes to offering subsidies. Perth isn’t known for handouts, neither is Brisbane. That is the airport, tourism body and government all in sync.

They could cannibalise their own routes. Albury to the Gold Coast and Sunny Coast wouldn’t work. Possibly the same to both Cairns and Sunny.

[Deano969]

Don’t forget they go where the money is with regards to new bases. Adelaide and Melbourne are generally the front runners when it comes to offering subsidies. Perth isn’t known for handouts, neither is Brisbane. That is the airport, tourism body and government all in sync.

They could cannibalise their own routes. Albury to the Gold Coast and Sunny Coast wouldn’t work. Possibly the same to both Cairns and Sunny.

Fair point

I assumed prior to start up that they may have enhanced their loads by offering connection flights say from ABX to CNS via MCY
Based this on the almost equal segments north and south of MCY and with these routes it looked like a good way to get bums on seats
Yeah I get that a LCC model is not usually set up this way but could have worked at MCY with everything set up right
2 tickets
Through luggage separated and re loaded
Onward passengers offload straight to departures area pre checked

Would have been a good way to test the waters on regional NSW to Cairns

[PoppaJo]

Looks like they have just dropped mins, FO non type rated and 750hrs. A whole wave of cancellations next week due to no crew apparently.

Bonza and Rex will have continued issues, especially FOs, in the capital cities, unless they address the pay issue. The days re a new startup and offering bottom dollar wages for the first few years are over, unless they enjoy cancellations.

[Zinfandel]

The MEL - MIA flight returned to MEL yesterday, apparently this was the ACARS message sent.

‘MNT CARRIED OUT POST 1 JUN 23 1937 UTC CRS IS NO LONGER VALID.
CONFIRM RETURN TO MEL AS ADVISED BY MNT.
THANKS OCC’

[Chris2303]

The MEL - MIA flight returned to MEL yesterday, apparently this was the ACARS message sent.

‘MNT CARRIED OUT POST 1 JUN 23 1937 UTC CRS IS NO LONGER VALID.
CONFIRM RETURN TO MEL AS ADVISED BY MNT.
THANKS OCC’
MIA = Miami?

[tossbag]

YMIA = Mildura?

[Zinfandel]

Yep…YMIA/MQL = Mildura

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

But MEL ≠ YMEL, or are they flying between Mildura and Melton?

[PoppaJo]

or are they flying between Mildura and Melton?
Don’t give them any ideas!

[Zinfandel]

Rather than comment about IATA and ICAO codes, why not comment about the ACARS message that’s basically stated the aircraft flew without a valid CRS…that’s not good. Not to mention the 5 plus hour delay for the passengers. They could have driven from Melbourne to Mildura in that time.

[aussieflyboy]

Rather than comment about IATA and ICAO codes, why not comment about the ACARS message that’s basically stated the aircraft flew without a valid CRS…that’s not good. Not to mention the 5 plus hour delay for the passengers. They could have driven from Melbourne to Mildura in that time.

Mate the same crap (and worse!) happens at every Aussie airline every now and then. They identified an issue and rectified it in a safe and appropriate manner.

[PoppaJo]

Mate the same crap (and worse!) happens at every Aussie airline every now and then. They identified an issue and rectified it in a safe and appropriate manner.
True. They are on the CASA training wheels however. Tiger started falling off them about a year in, engineering issues and Canberra started sniffing around, while it took a bit for any action to actually be taken, people started watching. As long it’s not a weekly or monthly trend then agree, move on.

[VH-RME]

Anyone gone through the interview process lately?

[redsnail]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1504/img_5112_68149fc16483d85b8beadbb9639d31e911a24edd.jpeg
Looks like they are operating in Warsaw. ;)

[PoppaJo]

I can imagine the confusion when one is told to follow or give way to the Bonza tailed, LOT ‘wingletted’, half an ‘A’ Enter Air titled, 737

Just follow the weird looking jet with the purple engines!

[TBM-Legend]

I’m surprised that days and days have gone by without our cohort of airline executives who pose as Pprune aviation wizards have almost gone silent. 🥱

[Deano969]

Good loads
Aircraft going tech causing delays
Flair pinching birds slowing growth
Tamworth, Coffs and Port Maq underperforming
All the naysayers have been proven wrong
Just a good news story

[TBM-Legend]

Good loads
Aircraft going tech causing delays
Flair pinching birds slowing growth
Tamworth, Coffs and Port Maq underperforming
All the naysayers have been proven wrong
Just a good news story


so where’s the good news then? Good loads may not equal enough revenue eg. Not being reliable is a no-no. Blaming Flair is ridiculous

[brokenagain]

All the naysayers have been proven wrong

The Friday arvo farewell party is becoming a weekly event I hear.

No FB posts for over a month. Did the Social Media Manager quit as well? Maybe they got sick of all the negative comments?

[Deano969]

so where’s the good news then? Good loads may not equal enough revenue eg. Not being reliable is a no-no. Blaming Flair is ridiculous

Hold on Tunnel Boring Machine Legend
Have to blame 777 and Flair
ABs back up / spare bird flew the coop resulting in the delayed sectors
AB stated from the start 90% loads is what they need and most on here said no way would that ever happen on their proposed network. but is has, although with a few routes certainly not meeting this number, as to be expected given the gamble they took with untried pairs

And Brokeback
Facebook, really, thats your go to for how they are doing.....

[markis10]

It’s all good news with two Bonza painted aircraft flying around Poland that have nothing to do with 777 partners or flair, poor press in various cities and an imminent network rework. https://www.planespotters.net/photo/1441396/sp-exe-enter-air-boeing-737-8-max

Eg https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/13xd84f/bonza_cancelled_your_flight/ $700 ouch! Note the post mentioning advanced cancellations weeks out.
https://www.thechronicle.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TCWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thechronicle.com.au%2Fnews%2Fcheap-flights-mean-nothing-passengers-call-out-new-airline%2Fnews-story%2F6df79c044277718a7e8a8f364fd0e909&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
https://www.sunraysiadaily.com.au/travel/6159610/birds-strike-a-blow-for-bonza-passengers

The company has said it gets 99% of its bookings via their app, another ouch when it comes to industry sales via the agent channel.
As for good loads - 122k of pax in total through the sunny coast since launch (inbound and outbound), that’s 1000 a day, another ouch with 14 movements on average.


And Brokeback
Facebook, really, thats your go to for how they are doing.....
Given the comments I would say they are sick of saying sorry, can imagine what the DMs are like! Meanwhile no booking beyond August….

[PoppaJo]

Sharpie was right around this weird Coffs to Sunny Coast route, $29 fares tomorrow. Surely is better uses for aircraft on what is meant to be high margin Sundays. Good way to burn some cash, certainly would be making Tiger proud.

They seem pretty eager to get into Mascot going from recent media reports. No surprises there, that is where the margin lies.

[TBM-Legend]

Hold on Tunnel Boring Machine Legend
Have to blame 777 and Flair
ABs back up / spare bird flew the coop resulting in the delayed sectors
AB stated from the start 90% loads is what they need and most on here said no way would that ever happen on their proposed network. but is has, although with a few routes certainly not meeting this number, as to be expected given the gamble they took with untried pairs

And Brokeback
Facebook, really, thats your go to for how they are doing.....


over promise and under deliver = your toast!

the punters aren’t at all interested in why!

Dreaming won’t make it so…

[SHVC]

Sharpie was right around this weird Coffs to Sunny Coast route, $29 fares tomorrow. Surely is better uses for aircraft on what is meant to be high margin Sundays. Good way to burn some cash, certainly would be making Tiger proud.

They seem pretty eager to get into Mascot going from recent media reports. No surprises there, that is where the margin lies.

But, but, but we don’t need Mascot it’s not in our business plan. Old mate Tim was in the media recently complaining how restrictive Mascot is. Guess they’re finally realizing whether you like it or not you need Mascot.

[topend3]

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2023/06/23/in-flight-mode-bonza-settles-in-for-the-long-haul/

you'd think they would have thought about enough stairs to allow front and rear boarding, no-brainer for low cost model on short turns.

[Australopithecus]

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2023/06/23/in-flight-mode-bonza-settles-in-for-the-long-haul/

you'd think they would have thought about enough stairs to allow front and rear boarding, no-brainer for low cost model on short turns.

Its not like they are utilising the aircraft so much that they need the extra 5 minutes per turn.

[TBM-Legend]

https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2023/06/23/in-flight-mode-bonza-settles-in-for-the-long-haul/

you'd think they would have thought about enough stairs to allow front and rear boarding, no-brainer for low cost model on short turns.

surprised that double boarding wasn’t on their startup list.

[No Idea Either]

surprised that double boarding wasn’t on their startup list.

Those stairs cost a bit and then extra staff needed on the ramp to round the punters up…….

[TBM-Legend]

Those stairs cost a bit and then extra staff needed on the ramp to round the punters up…….

topend3 gets it. Real LCC’s have fast turnarounds and move the punters on and off quickly and out of weather if it’s inclement

[Traffic_Is_Er_Was]

There's so many "learnings" in that article I thought they were starting a uni.

[topend3]

Maybe thats stage 2

[92Driver]

There is an interesting read about those financing Bonza. I cant copy the link but google the website 'one mile at a time, 777 partner's suspicious airline investments'

[cynphil]

Interesting article! I think if I worked at Bonza I would be looking to jump ship ASAP before things get ugly! 😳

[TBM-Legend]

Interesting article! I think if I worked at Bonza I would be looking to jump ship ASAP before things get ugly! 😳

from an article as 777 tries to buy into Everton FC

”Via Twitter, Brown wrote, “777 wanted to buy #efc – but fraud, kidnapping, extortion, predatory lending & racketeering are just some of the things their companies are accused of in US court papers, & their founder has a drug trafficking conviction.”

[John Galt]

google the full article 'Josimar football the 777 football mystery'
another interesting read!

[PoppaJo]

777 are also looking at an investment stake in a Korean LCC. Interesting concept. Take a small stake in new startup or small airlines, make earnings via high re-lease rates, and interest on any loans. If the airline bleeds, or fails, 777 is likely still well ahead.

The only difference with Bonza vs its other investments, is they have full ownership. Profiteering from leased aircraft and charging high interest on loans, will bite them in the @rse if Bonza continues to burn cash. Seems like they will most certainly offload at some point. Remains to be seen who actually wants to buy a stake in it.

[dijical]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/13/bonza-airlines-axes-regional-routes-sunshine-coast-coffs-harbour-port-macquarie-tamworth

[josephfeatherweight]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/13/bonza-airlines-axes-regional-routes-sunshine-coast-coffs-harbour-port-macquarie-tamworth
Who would have thought?

[Deano969]

Sunny Coast to Coffs and Port Maq were always 50/50 all being holiday destinations in their own right
Tamworth I thought would have done a bit better.....
Wellcamp to Proserpine was always wishful thinking, would have had a better chance doing Cairns
Cairns to Mackay competes with 3 daily 1 stop options QLink

Honestly thought they would cut more than just 5.....

[VHOED191006]

It was inevitable. Not sure what kind of market research they were looking at, but those routes aren't going ones that people want to fly on. They can either continue like this and potentially disappear, or they can abandon their business model and try to rival JQ in the low-cost market. I just can't see any other way for them to stay afloat. They can't really go after VA, and they definitely can't go after QF. I don't think trying to compete on the golden triangle is a good idea, just look at Rex. Unlike Europe and the US, we don't have the population numbers for Bonza to make its current model sustainable, nor will tourists want to fly on these routes because there is nothing really to see in these places, plus it's currently too expensive to come here. I just think Bonza needs to do something, and quickly too.

[BonzaisBonza]

Bonza numbers have been very good on 90% of routes and with them cutting 5 routes, it'll free up the schedule for more stream line ops, resulting in better on-time performance and minimal cancellations. It shows that they are comitted and are active in bettering their product and performance for their passengers. Originally routes weren't going to be cut until at least August or Septemeber but the numbers on the routes being cut have been speaking loudly and it makes sense to step down from that, so they can invest in the more popular routes.
2 new aircraft should be coming at the end of August, if not before.

[BonzaisBonza]

I dont agree. Bonza's business model is very streamline and simple and it shows in the numbers they have been getting. Not all routes are popular which is why they are making changes, but overall i do believe Australia has the population to sustain Bonza and that the public will still use Bonza. It's been very positive so far.

[PoppaJo]

2 new aircraft should be coming at the end of August, if not before.
I think that was Rex not Bonza.

[BonzaisBonza]

I think that was Rex not Bonza.

hahaha no, it's not announced yet but 2 are coming from Flair to Bonza.

[SWBKCB]

Ryanair have dropped about 50% of all the routes they've ever operated - doesn't seem to have hurt them much

[LostWanderer]

Ryanair have dropped about 50% of all the routes they've ever operated - doesn't seem to have hurt them much

RyanAir have an actual website, an established brand and more than a handful of airframes to work with though

[Deano969]

It was inevitable. Not sure what kind of market research they were looking at, but those routes aren't going ones that people want to fly on. They can either continue like this and potentially disappear, or they can abandon their business model and try to rival JQ in the low-cost market. I just can't see any other way for them to stay afloat. They can't really go after VA, and they definitely can't go after QF. I don't think trying to compete on the golden triangle is a good idea, just look at Rex. Unlike Europe and the US, we don't have the population numbers for Bonza to make its current model sustainable, nor will tourists want to fly on these routes because there is nothing really to see in these places, plus it's currently too expensive to come here. I just think Bonza needs to do something, and quickly too.

When you consider that most of their flying is ex MCY to regional airports and they have good results on most, all be it with a couple of fails, imagine if they simply reproduced their model at OOL or CNS
Plenty of growth potential out there...
Just look at NTL MCY, Pelican had a go with 3-4 per week at 19 seats or 76 seats, AB are running over 720 seats and getting good loads

Then Mildura is getting 2 weekly with a population of under 35,000
Albury is getting 2 weekly with a population of under 100,000
Adelaide is 3 weekly with JQ with a population of 1,300,000
By this ratio if AB moved into Adelaide, on the numbers above could be running 4-5 daily

[SWBKCB]

RyanAir have an actual website, an established brand and more than a handful of airframes to work with though

What did they start with? Ryanair have stopped and started routes through out their existence

[43Inches]

RyanAir is based in Europe, you know the place with thousands of secondary airports around hundreds of large cities and a population of 800 million. Compared to Australia with a few long runways here and there, and 95% of the 27 million population living in the 5 main cities, which airports are already almost 100% saturated during peak times.

[MickG0105]

Bonza numbers have been very good on 90% of routes ...
How do you know what their pax loads have been on any of their routes? And please define "very good".

[PoppaJo]

hahaha no, it's not announced yet but 2 are coming from Flair to Bonza.

What, in the middle of the Canadian Summer?

I don’t think Bonza could even get new aircraft online within a short period with no sim time anywhere, and well, they barely have any pilots. Be a struggle to crew anything much bigger.

[Petropavlovsk]

Press release from Bonza. dated 13th July

Five routes have been cut from the schedule. Company cites very poor bookings being the cause.

Subscribe to the Cairns Post (https://www.cairnspost.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CPWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cairnspost.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fbonza-overhauls-flying-schedule-axing-five-routes-and-cutting-frequency-on-others%2Fnews-story%2F72955930ee7e118755129612be50086b&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium) all the daily newspapers are carrying the story, (behind paywall)

Bonza airline to axe five regional Australia routes due to low patronage | Transport | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/13/bonza-airlines-axes-regional-routes-sunshine-coast-coffs-harbour-port-macquarie-tamworth) (open article)

[Old aeroplane geek]

Recalling from memory ...

Compass I, followed by Compass II, followed by Air Australia (Strategic Airlines) and the Melbourne or Essendon based Oz Jet. They all failed and they had lower operating costs and a far less demanding CASA at the time. Pre-loved aircraft, not new off the factory floor with higher lease payments.

Bonza will go the same way; crippling overheads and new aircraft lease payments in times of a faltering economy.

[Mumbai Merlin]

Bonza is operating with one hand tied behind their backs. When you have to pay 3rd party suppliers for offshore Sim training, then cost are too high. Crew travel, accomodation, the $$$ all add up..

Take the three major airline operators in PNG for example.
Air Niugini with Boeing 767, 737, Fokker 100, 70, Dash 8, 200,300 400 series.
PNG Air with Dash 8's and ATR's and
Hevilift PNG with ATR's.

All offshore training and recurrency.

[PoppaJo]

Recalling from memory ...

Bonza will go the same way; crippling overheads and new aircraft lease payments in times of a faltering economy.

The issue for Bonza will likely the same as Tiger. Now before we all get executed for bringing down the new guys, we all would love to see it succeed, but we have all seen the same thing before. Don’t blame us for being skeptical.

The issue is, the bigger they get, the worse the cash burn gets. The Pommy Management at Tiger had the idea, in that as they grew, it’s scale that now becomes key in reducing costs, so we are not going to spend anything. That idea actually cost them more, vs investing the required amounts as a small nimble carrier. It’s a bit like spending next months revenue to pay the previous quarters invoices. It’s catches up to you eventually.

The sweet spot will likely be around 15 aircraft. I don’t think they would be even able to get the engineering and flight ops capability to service such a number, happy to be proven wrong. I would look at investing in internal simulators right about now, tap off some government handouts like Rex has been done.

[markis10]

Recalling from memory ...

Compass I, followed by Compass II, followed by Air Australia (Strategic Airlines) and the Melbourne or Essendon based Oz Jet. They all failed and they had lower operating costs and a far less demanding CASA at the time. Pre-loved aircraft, not new off the factory floor with higher lease payments.

Bonza will go the same way; crippling overheads and new aircraft lease payments in times of a faltering economy.

Let’s not forget Jetgo and Sky Air World……All airlines that promised much and delivered nothing but bad debts and wrecked career opportunities for staff. Meanwhile claims Flair and Bonza have been setup to fail according to a former principal of 777 partner in a civil case
MALT FAMILY TRUST v 777 PARTNERS ET AL
Filing Date: Tuesday , July 26th, 2022
Type: 2A - CIVIL ACTIONS
Status: ACTIVE - ACTIVE

Believe the Oz ran a story on this last week.

[KRUSTY 34]

The issue for Bonza will likely the same as Tiger. Now before we all get executed for bringing down the new guys, we all would love to see it succeed, but we have all seen the same thing before. Don’t blame us for being skeptical.

The issue is, the bigger they get, the worse the cash burn gets. The Pommy Management at Tiger had the idea, in that as they grew, it’s scale that now becomes key in reducing costs, so we are not going to spend anything. That idea actually cost them more, vs investing the required amounts as a small nimble carrier. It’s a bit like spending next months revenue to pay the previous quarters invoices. It’s catches up to you eventually.

The sweet spot will likely be around 15 aircraft. I don’t think they would be even able to get the engineering and flight ops capability to service such a number, happy to be proven wrong. I would look at investing in internal simulators right about now, tap off some government handouts like Rex has been done.

I Dunno, REX jet appears to be doing ok?

Aren't they?

[topend3]

Link to article (https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airports-networks/australian-startup-bonza-drops-five-routes-citing-weak-demand)

[LostWanderer]

What did they start with? Ryanair have stopped and started routes through out their existence

Guarantee you through their existence they have always had significantly more infrastructure than Bonza is working with.

[PoppaJo]

I Dunno, REX jet appears to be doing ok?

Aren't they?

I don’t think they even know how they are doing. Recent market announcements raised many questions.

Is Bonza just part of a pyramid scheme?

[Australopithecus]

There’s a whiff of something unsavoury in their parent company’s dealings. Everything I read about those guys makes me think of Miami Vice plot lines.

[43Inches]

Rich folk with cash to burn have proven time and again that they really don't understand capital intensive transport sectors like Aviation. Most successful long term business models have started small and built up over time, usually from family orientated owners with interest in the sector. The push for low cost has seen so many failures over time as they just don't understand how machines can be fickle, problems with reliability, obsolescence and highly skilled workforce that suffer from gluts of availability. They see massive revenues.but forget the huge cost factors and think they will be the ones to reign in cost factors and make billions. Once you buy into aviation you then have to wait years for a return on the investment, or that's what you are told, the reality sets in a few years later that you will be continuing to pump cash into the venture to keep it afloat, by then it's too late and you have to 're-brand' to make the business appear viable and use promises like 'on-track for profit by ...'. Again the reality is, you are just putting make-up on the pig for a quick sale to get some of your money back and let some other sucker learn the deal...

If you are lucky you buy into something that has recently recapitalized and you can burn the warehouse for cash profit, until nothings left and then sell whats left to another unsuspecting fool who looks at the past P&L and thinks its a sure deal. After all they are only 10 year old airframes, last guy signed up all the EBAs and contracts, things seem to be all running fine, until... Oops whats that about 12 year parts life, warranty expiration's, pilots and engineers are unhappy about their force negotiated EBAs, no one wants to work for minimum wage as handlers and loaders, what, fuel can jump that much in one year!!, you pay what for a gate?? last guy sold all the maintenance facilities and now outsourced costs have tripled, huh, who stopped making the engines on most of our aircraft??? Oh well, we can always screw the pilots out of another million in lost wages...What? no more pilots?

[markis10]

Good results for the Bonza fanbois is sub 60% load factor across all routes ex Mcy based on the companies own data, the yield must be horrific based on the airfares on offer everyday.

[PoppaJo]

The push for low cost has seen so many failures over time as they just don't understand how machines can be fickle, problems with reliability, obsolescence and highly skilled workforce that suffer from gluts of availability. They see massive revenues.but forget the huge cost factors and think they will be the ones to reign in cost factors and make billions.
For most, correct.

However it does seem 777 operate differently. Do they even care how the airline investment is run? They only hold a 10-25% share in most cases. According to reports they make the cash from 18% finance loans, 20% surcharges on lease payments, lease out its own internal digital bookings platforms. The list goes on.

It’s pretty clear if one was to bleed an airline dry, 777 won’t be the one in the red, seems to be quite the opposite.

[MickG0105]

Bonza pauses summer holiday bookings to passengers’ surprise

By ROBYN IRONSIDE
AVIATION WRITER

Low-cost carrier Bonza is currently not taking bookings beyond October as the airline reworks its schedule following multiple route cuts.

The short window for bookings has surprised some potential passengers, seeking to fly Bonza in the summer holiday period.

The majority of airlines allow bookings up to 12-months in advance and make network adjustments as necessary.

Bonza chief commercial officer Carly Povey said travellers would be able to book flights beyond October until Easter 2024, from next month.

“The schedule that travellers can expect to go on sale is aligned to our revised schedule that comes into operation from August 1, including 16 destinations and 22 routes,” Ms Povey said.

“The starting fares remain the same with flights from $49 to $89 per person one way.”

The US-owned airline announced last week it was cutting back from 27 routes and 17 destinations due to poor demand. Those affected included the Sunshine Coast to Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Tamworth; Cairns to Mackay and Toowoomba to the Whitsundays.

Other routes faced a reduction in frequency from three to two flights a week, while the Sunshine Coast to Albury, Sunshine Coast to Avalon and Melbourne to Port Macquarie would score an extra weekly service.

Travellers with bookings on axed routes were promised full refunds if an alternative flight was not possible.

As well as the problem of low patronage on certain routes, Bonza was struggling to avoid cancellations due to its small fleet of four Boeing 737 Max 8.

Ms Povey said the smaller network would allow one aircraft to remain on standby to “step in” adding resilience to their operations.

Bonza was expecting to increase its fleet size to eight, but it was not clear when more aircraft would begin to arrive.

A spokeswoman confirmed the new schedule to be released next month was designed for their current fleet size, and would be adjusted as new 737-8s were delivered.

Ms Povey said a third base for the airline, in addition to the Sunshine Coast and Melbourne, would be announced in “coming weeks and months” so they could start recruiting people before more flights were put on sale.

“The operation of the third base will involve additional aircraft to our current fleet of four,” said Ms Povey.

Plans for the low-cost carrier were announced in October 2021, but commercial passenger flights only began in late January this year, after delays in regulatory approval.

Since then, more than 330,000 bookings have been received through the FlyBonza app, which has been downloaded more than 1.25 million times.

The airline spokeswoman said downloads had continued at a steady rate since route cuts were flagged last week, and they were expecting strong demand for the summer holiday period.

Bonza’s business model involved the airline operating on routes not flown by other airlines or at least other low-cost carriers, with the exception of a few out of Melbourne.

Owner 777 Partners recently told The Australian they remained “steadfast in our support of the airlines we work with”.

​​​​​​​As well as Bonza, the Miami-based investment firm held stakes in Canada’s Flair Airlines and was in the process of taking a share of South Korea’s Eastar airlines.


​​​​​​​Behind pay wall
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/bonza-pauses-summer-holiday-bookings-to-passengers-surprise/news-story/42b38efe93cbd7d960dfcf9ee08800db

[PoppaJo]

Another paywall article just appeared, this one is certainly interesting.

777 already looking to offload. I guess they haven’t burnt $1b in losses quite yet like its predecessor did over 13 years. Probably a good time to get out!

Fasten your seatbelts, Bonza fields inbound interestJul 16, 2023 – 6.03pmThe private equity interests behind Bonza, the latest to try its hand at breaking into the ultra-competitive Australian aviation market, are considering whether to bring in new capital partners to back the airline’s expansion into a full-scale domestic carrier.

Street Talk can reveal Miami-based private investment firm 777 Partners – which does its M&A work in-house but will seek external counsel when required – has been in discussions with local advisory firms as it seeks assistance with inbound interest in the airline. It owns the vast majority of the company – with Bonza chief executive Tim Jordan having a small interest – and it is not clear whether it would sell down its holding.

In its discussions, sources told Street Talk, 777 is eyeing a $100 million valuation on Bonza, which launched only this year. While no decisions have been made, it is in the preliminary stages of reviewing other potential sources of capital that would serve to turbocharge its growth strategy.

The private equity firm has plenty of other investments around the world, including a stake in Canadian budget airline Flair and in A-League team Melbourne Victory.

Last week, Bonza said it was cutting five routes from its schedule (https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/six-months-in-bonza-cuts-routes-and-redirects-aircraft-overseas-20230713-p5dnx1) as it waits for planes that are operating during the northern hemisphere summer to arrive in Australia later this year. The carrier began flying at the end of January from bases in Melbourne and the Sunshine Coast, and has since boosted the local low-cost carrier industry from 60 routes to 80 routes.

[MalcolmReynolds]

Go hard or go home guys!

[topend3]

777 Partners also claiming they now need Bonza to have access to SYD to survive. Pre launch I recall Jordan saying that SYD access was not necessary with their point to point model...

[PoppaJo]

777 Partners also claiming they now need Bonza to have access to SYD to survive. Pre launch I recall Jordan saying that SYD access was not necessary with their point to point model...

Hmmm. I think I’ve heard this before?

Tiger Airways’ Tony Davis in 2007.
Sydney Airport is a major airport … (but) it isn't ideal for our operation and there are many other airports around the country … that (are) much better suited to our type of model."
​​​​​​​
Tiger Airways Tony Davis in 2009
​​​​​​​We have made the long-awaited announcement of Sydney flights, with services from Melbourne to start on July 3.

[Wizofoz]

777 Partners also claiming they now need Bonza to have access to SYD to survive. Pre launch I recall Jordan saying that SYD access was not necessary with their point to point model...

Saying you don't need access to 1/5 of the country's population is like saying you are going to save money by only taking 80% of the fuel you require...

[Switchbait]

Saying you don't need access to 1/5 of the country's population is like saying you are going to save money by only taking 80% of the fuel you require...


It’s also like saying that Bonza’s business model could actually be a success…

We all know what Darryl would say…

[Deano969]

So here's the thing
AB launched 27 routes
22 are ongoing
5 failed
A couple of routes will get 25%-33% increase in frequencies
Most one here were touting the viability of ABs model
A success rate of 80% of their routes proved them wrong

AB really should have had 5 frames for start up allowing for maintenance and tech

YES AB will move into competing routes when they are larger and established
But for now they are playing the "We are no threat to QF/VA/JQ, just filling some gaps in regional holiday and OD markets" card

They need Sydney but not right now
Even if they lose millions doing what they are now, it's far better than launching head to head with QF/JQ and VA as we know how they will be treated, just ask REX

[markis10]

So here's the thing
AB launched 27 routes
22 are ongoing
5 failed
A couple of routes will get 25%-33% increase in frequencies
Most one here were touting the viability of ABs model
A success rate of 80% of their routes proved them wrong



Think your confusing success with survival, especially as 777partners is looking to reduce ownership.

[Slippery_Pete]

Any truth to the rumour that the fat lady is starting to warm her vocal chords?

[TBM-Legend]

Any truth to the rumour that the fat lady is starting to warm her vocal chords?

where’s the canary?

[topend3]

So here's the thing
AB launched 27 routes
22 are ongoing
5 failed
A couple of routes will get 25%-33% increase in frequencies
Most one here were touting the viability of ABs model
A success rate of 80% of their routes proved them wrong

AB really should have had 5 frames for start up allowing for maintenance and tech

YES AB will move into competing routes when they are larger and established
But for now they are playing the "We are no threat to QF/VA/JQ, just filling some gaps in regional holiday and OD markets" card

They need Sydney but not right now
Even if they lose millions doing what they are now, it's far better than launching head to head with QF/JQ and VA as we know how they will be treated, just ask REX

I think it's a tad early to say that 22 routes have been "successful"

[markis10]

The sunny coast local rag has quoted Bonza as saying there were 2236 customers affected by the route cancellations. With an average 2 return services a week and 6 weeks of bookings available across the five routes that’s 37 pax per flight.

[Deano969]

The sunny coast local rag has quoted Bonza as saying there were 2236 customers affected by the route cancellations. With an average 2 return services a week and 6 weeks of bookings available across the five routes that’s 37 pax per flight.

Hence pulling the routes
Your numbers are a bit off though as they are only flying weekly Sunny Coast to Tamworth and Coffs and Wellcamp to Proserpine at the moment
2236 customers over 6 weeks is 372 per week
5 routes / 3 weekly 2 x twice weekly = 7 routes or 14 sectors or 26 seats per sector

[Mach E Avelli]

So it’s official! Bonza has now got its AOC…

Let’s place bets!

Will they stand the test of rough economic times and lead the way in LCC operations?

Place your bets!
My bet is Xmas this year it will be over for the "team of legends". Do their Human Remains copywriters even know the definition of ‘legend’? Prescient or what?
If I had to bet on the next serious player who will be a stayer in the Oz domestic market, it would be Rex. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, I reckon you could buy a ticket with them for your next summer trip and have a fair chance of it flying.

[Ladloy]

My bet is Xmas this year it will be over for the "team of legends". Do their Human Remains copywriters even know the definition of ‘legend’? Prescient or what?
If I had to bet on the next serious player who will be a stayer in the Oz domestic market, it would be Rex. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, I reckon you could buy a ticket with them for your next summer trip and have a fair chance of it flying.
Maybe this Christmas yes, but a 35m loss year on year can't go on forever

[MickG0105]

...
If I had to bet on the next serious player who will be a stayer in the Oz domestic market, it would be Rex. ...
As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

Let's have a bo-peep at their FY23 financial reporting. You get a sense that there is something fundamentally amiss for them to be pulling in about $56.5 million a month in revenue but haemorrhaging $2.5 - $3.0 million a month during what has been a pretty positive year for domestic air travel.

[PoppaJo]

As the Zen Master was fond of saying, "We'll see."

Let's have a bo-peep at their FY23 financial reporting. You get a sense that there is something fundamentally amiss for them to be pulling in about $56.5 million a month in revenue but haemorrhaging $2.5 - $3.0 million a month during what has been a pretty positive year for domestic air travel.
Loads are terrible mid week on the 737 apparently. Great for the cash burn.

Terrible is 20-50 ish. Perhaps they need a decent frequent flyer program. Triangle 5pm you shouldn’t have a spare seat available during the week.

[TBM-Legend]

A frequent flyer program won’t save them as many punters from the regions travel infrequently for holidays or VFR on occasion.

one swallow doesn’t make a summer!

[43Inches]

Actually Rex had an extremely successful FF program of 10th flight free, and it was extremely popular for the frequent business travelers to the country ports. I think Rex didn't like the fact that businesses could use the free flight for last minute tickets to avoid huge fares so scrapped it, but I think it was a huge blunder on Rexs' part as it was attracting a lot of business. I remember a lot of regular customers that commented that the simple 10th flight free program was keeping them with Rex and when it ended they traveled with who was cheapest on the day, if that was an option. Again comes down to putting accountants in charge of the marketing and loyalty segments, when you could be great, but you pinch the pennies that would have lifted you to the next level. Not to mention their idea of how to treat regional customers and set schedules and routing is stuck in 1981.

[fire wall]

Flights are at 80 percent LF.
Your intel is BS.

[PoppaJo]

Flights are at 80 percent LF.
Your intel is BS.
Excluding Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wasting my time to prove a point, a random sample of flights this morning on Expert Flyer has about half dozen flights only 30-50 people.

The point is they would probably be full during the week, ie corporate times, if they had a loyalty program?

[MickG0105]

Flights are at 80 percent LF.
Your intel is BS.
Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting.

Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Seven Eight months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.

[markis10]

Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting.

Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.

No one is on holidays this week, meaning VFR traffic will be very low, especially with the current inflation fears. Business won’t fly Bonza simply because of the lack of frequency, something going wrong on either side could see you stranded for at least two days.

[Wizofoz]

Mmm, I don't know about that. I'm seeing similar numbers to what Poppa is quoting.

Noting all the issues that routinely plague small data sets, yesterday and so far today Rex are looking at load factors in the 40s for Sydney-Melbourne and Sydney-Brisbane; ~41.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~44.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Seven months ago, when Rex were firing off the "We're in the money" announcements to the market, the load factors for those city pairs for Tuesdays and Wednesdays were in the high 80s; ~86.5 percent for SYD-MEL, and ~88.2 percent for SYD-BNE.

Something may have changed, and changed in a very significant way. Or maybe it hasn't, and yesterday and today are aberrations. Let's see what a week or so of data turns up.
Seven months ago was December- peak travel season. Loads seem to be following seasonal trends- they were very good during the school holidays (they'd want to be obviously). There is probably enough revenue from peak times to keep things going over the less popular times, but in the end, they WILL need to have the frequency, reputation and marketing to carry decent loads all year.

[MickG0105]

Seven months ago was December- peak travel season. Loads seem to be following seasonal trends- they were very good during the school holidays (they'd want to be obviously). There is probably enough revenue from peak times to keep things going over the less popular times, but in the end, they WILL need to have the frequency, reputation and marketing to carry decent loads all year.
My mistake, I'm looking at the November data, so eight, not seven, months ago.

And yes, passenger numbers and load factors do bounce around by month/season. That said, you do not see half as many pax moving in the low period as you do in the high period. The swing between the quietest month, February, and the busiest month, generally October, tends to be around 20-25 percent.

The swing between July and November tends to run the other way; July is routinely a busier month than November. In fact, generally July is the second busiest month of the year.

And the monthly variations between load factors tends to be somewhat tighter than what you see for pax numbers, generally in the order of only a 10 percent variation (~ 8 percentage points) between worst and best.

[MickG0105]

No one is on holidays this week, meaning VFR traffic will be very low, especially with the current inflation fears. Business won’t fly Bonza simply because of the lack of frequency, something going wrong on either side could see you stranded for at least two days.
I know that it is confusing given that this is a Bonza thread, but the LFs we were kicking around are for Rex.

[PoppaJo]

Bonza is adjusting capacity to demand, they have axed a whole pile of routes, they don’t appear to be flying around empty as such.

The issue for Rex, is they have placed all eggs in one basket, that’s capital city runs. I don’t know who the Rex corporate traveller is, I assume SME. However the Rex passenger appears to be Leisure VFR and very very small SME. That makes sense, as Rex is pretty full from Friday to Monday, as alluded to above, no denying that. But, they have issues during the week. They are playing middle of the market carrier with no loyalty program, that will leave you exposed mid week.

But to be flying 40/50 people around on a dozen flights mid week indicates some strategy problems at hand. Rex will need some fresh eyes to take it any further, they are most certainly stuck in 1981.

[TBM-Legend]

This is about Bonza not Rex. Who cares what REX does on this thread..,

Thread drift here is the order of the day here, bit like ABC news.

[Al E. Vator]

Good grief, so many self-appointed experts (like Poppa Jo) making inaccurate/uninformed statements about matters they can have no accurate knowledge of such as load factors and revenue and presenting these as if they are facts from an aviation oracle.

Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.

Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.

[PoppaJo]

You can’t blame people and shareholders especially for asking questions. The company for 5 months announced monthly profit numbers to the market. They went quiet for a few months. A month prior to the years end, they have told the market they are now loss making.

You don’t need a degree to understand basic fundamentals re operating a sustainable business. If you fly 40% full for half the week, you are burning cash. The thing is, according to the numbers, they are. I suggest if you have time to waste, jump on Expert Flyer and run some Rex numbers for this morning. It’s not great.

It further leads to the point, that for Rex to be taken any further, successfully, they need an executive overhaul.

[TBM-Legend]

Go start another Rex business thread. Some people can’t read as this is Bonza

[43Inches]

Good grief, so many self-appointed experts (like Poppa Jo) making inaccurate/uninformed statements about matters they can have no accurate knowledge of such as load factors and revenue and presenting these as if they are facts from an aviation oracle.

Citing all the Tigers and Compasses etc is pointless. EVERY major airline in Australia other than Qantas has gone bust. Virgin, Ansett etc. Similarly the self appointed experts were adamant that Jetstar was a temporary gimmick. It’s all been here on PPRUNE over the years.

Suffice to say, anyone can make basic statements about economic viability but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.

I agree there, reading the balance sheets mean nothing unless you know what the long term strategy is, are they willing to take a hit to stay in the game until somebody else falls over, tomorrow, next week, in ten years time. No one here knows how long 777/PAG/Bain are willing to sustain losses, if they will provide more capital, will they take more control of operations, what is the goal? Compare that to J* that makes measly profits from LFs above 90%, mainly because for a LCC they still have part QF cost factors and not that cheap fares when you add all the fluff on. I'd say (at a complete guess) that VA and Rex are probably aiming for a break even AVERAGE LF somewhere in the 80% range.

Not sure what Bonza are profiting, however they are generating revenue off what must be a fairly low cost base compared to VA and QF.

VA should have gone broke way back prior to 2010, they were propped up by continual injections from shareholders and promises of something better in the long run. The problem VA had for the long run was too many shareholders, which stymied direction and concise planning. Now all three of the none QF airline groups are backed by single entities, with who knows what plans they have for the long run. The only certainty is that there is not enough assets in any of them to warrant takeover and breakup, so the aim in the long run must be for something viable and sale-able but at what cost, and what timing, who knows.

PS, it's been said time and time again, Load factors mean nothing without knowing the yield. Rex has made most of its regional profit on around 60% LF for years. Which means some flights full others single digit loads. It's the yield on the full flights that really tells the story, and the other not so full, closer to empty are catchment on frequency to keep things turning over, maintain utilization.

BTW QF and VA are cancelling flights for yield management, so all is not rosy full flights on scheduled departures at either of the larger groups. It's just that they have the frequency to do such things.

[Alice Kiwican]

Go start another Rex business thread. Some people can’t read as this is Bonza


Agreed! Did Bonza morph into Rex in the last few days??

[PoppaJo]

Never say never. Virgin Mark 3 could buy both them one day!

[TBM-Legend]

What Virgin Mk 3? Again nothing to do with Bonza..

[Hoosten]

Bonza comment:

but without an accurate understanding of revenues and expenses, you’re just another mouth.

Yep, rightio. Bet you a hundred they don't last another year unless, they morph into a more realistic route structure, someone buys them out, they admit they are a loss maker and are in it for the long haul (whatever that is?)

[Deano969]

Qatar is looking closely at REX as a cheap investment
A cash injection to grow their network is on the cards, but more so they want to throw some wide bodies their way to get around the cap as they want more flights to Oz

[SHVC]

Qatar is looking closely at REX as a cheap investment
A cash injection to grow their network is on the cards, but more so they want to throw some wide bodies their way to get around the cap as they want more flights to Oz

I call BS! Those slots are not transferable to domestic jet not alone international. Otherwise Rex would have a lot more than their 6 jets into Sydney.

[Beer Baron]

So a foreign airline buys a stake in another majority foreign owned carrier, how does this get around these slot restrictions?

[Hoosten]

Same as pre-covid Virgin hey?

[A320 Flyer]

Qatar is looking closely at REX as a cheap investment
A cash injection to grow their network is on the cards, but more so they want to throw some wide bodies their way to get around the cap as they want more flights to Oz

That is hilarious

[Deano969]

Who is talking about slots, I am referring to the bilateral cap as Qatar is maxed out
They also were looking at VA but see more unrealized potential at ZL including a massive expansion of the pilot academy

Fleet
Helping ZL transition from SAABs to ATRs
More 737s

Academy
Training for ATRs / SAABs progressing to 737s to 777 / 787 both for ZL and Doha

International
Initially basing 5-6 x 777s in REX colours in Oz for ME
Potential ex Oz to Asia and US