zambonidriver
15th Nov 2022, 18:02
Not sure this is the right forum to post - feel free to move elsewhere
With the recent announcement by Boeing that they would not even start designing a new airlines for the next 10 years (https://onemileatatime.com/news/boeing-new-midsize-airplane/) and with Airbus hard pressed to deliver on their solid and competitive lineup I was wondering what could be conceivably next for civil aviation ?
Clearly the duopoly has no incentive for any significant risk taking and / or disruptive technology choices. Embrear is doing a fine job in some niches but I don’t see them becoming a major player (and if they do they will be snatched up). Comac might appear on the radar at some point but still a long way to go. Russia is… well, no comment there, irrespective of the outcome of the current conflict.
So to get back to aviation technology what / where can we expect a significant move ? Electric will remain at best a niche for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen has some potential but will be a tough nut to crack for aviation even if green production can be scaled up. SAF is a non starter IMHO. Fully automated operations will eventually come but certainly a long way off.
Any hope to see significant changes / disruption ?
With the recent announcement by Boeing that they would not even start designing a new airlines for the next 10 years (https://onemileatatime.com/news/boeing-new-midsize-airplane/) and with Airbus hard pressed to deliver on their solid and competitive lineup I was wondering what could be conceivably next for civil aviation ?
Clearly the duopoly has no incentive for any significant risk taking and / or disruptive technology choices. Embrear is doing a fine job in some niches but I don’t see them becoming a major player (and if they do they will be snatched up). Comac might appear on the radar at some point but still a long way to go. Russia is… well, no comment there, irrespective of the outcome of the current conflict.
So to get back to aviation technology what / where can we expect a significant move ? Electric will remain at best a niche for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen has some potential but will be a tough nut to crack for aviation even if green production can be scaled up. SAF is a non starter IMHO. Fully automated operations will eventually come but certainly a long way off.
Any hope to see significant changes / disruption ?