Recession, war and the airlines

[fwypwane]

I made the mistake of checking the news after accepting an airline job. What’s everyone’s predictions for the Australian airlines surviving 2023 with a potential recession and/or war ?

[DirectAnywhere]

I made the mistake of checking the news after accepting an airline job. What’s everyone’s predictions for the Australian airlines surviving 2023 with a potential recession and/or war ?

🤷‍♂️ In my 30 years in the industry the surest sign of a coming economic shock has been the airlines hiring pilots flat out. They’re always behind the curve.

[KAPAC]

Find a partner with a stable job and good income who can supplement an income in the early years and step up during the down turns or periods of no employment.

[morno]

Or you can just not read the news. They always make it sound like the world is about to end.

[dr dre]

If your job is primarily domestic flying that’ll probably be more resilient than international flying in a recession.

The amount of capacity in the Australian domestic market is still less than 2019 so technically it has “receded” yet airlines are still hiring. We did have a lot of retirements in the last two years so those people have to be replaced to return to 2019 levels.

Australia will be less affected by what’s happening in the northern hemisphere, and more affected by what’s happening in our region. When the GFC hit there were no mass layoffs in Australian aviation. For the most part hiring did slowdown, but no redundancies, so the fact you’ve gotten a job already is good.

[Gnadenburg]

Join Atlas or National and fly shelf-expired munitions of war to Eastern Europe. It won’t be over by Xmas.

[43Inches]

Join Atlas or National and fly shelf-expired munitions of war to Eastern Europe. It won’t be over by Xmas.

That would be painting a hot red laser target on your ass would it. Flying munitions during a full scale war would be the last thing you'd want to be doing.

If you do take it on and fly near a hot zone dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe. A goat herder with an rpg can hit a low slow transport, let alone a trained soldier. Ask some of the early herc pilots into Afghanistan how that went...

[Chocks Away]

One thing to be sure of is, where a downturn occurs in one place there's always an upturn somewhere else.
Accordingly, remaining up to date and flexible with such variations will see your employment continue in these upturns. The only problem is many can't keep moving around the globe chasing employment due to family commitments etc. KAPAC has good advice above in that regard, though I am yet to find such a partner... could be coz I'm ugly:eek:
Those with a keen eye and up with news might have noticed Indonesia, Vietnam and India as the three largest markets awakening to online shopping and rising middle-class spending...

[Icarus2001]

with a potential recession and/or war ? It is fascinating how the media has everyone frightened of recession. Just like the record interest rate rises we have had, rising up to still very low rates. The good news does not sell.

What does a recession actually mean? Just that the economy is not growing.

If you are in a stable job guess what? You are usually better off as prices fall. I saw first hand what the mining boom of 2010-2014 did to prices in Perth. Crazy food and drink prices everywhere. As soon as the boom ended, prices fell and a few people had to chnage jobs.

A recession will not hit travellers in Australia hard so unlikely to make a dent in flying numbers.

This graph shows how something as catastrophic globally as Covid still did not stop a rapid recovery in numbers...

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x336/image_b3487cc888d3fc34019b9a0c67e45684925f1711.png

This graph covers , that year, the 1990s recession we had to have, bird flu, GFC...

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/850x426/image_6e70ddc49e5c921f8ec350d524abd6e9d5dc4057.png

[43Inches]

Airline activity in Australia is a strange situation compared to global aviation. The industry is hamstrung by facility congestion, so peak times always have significant custom. There's probably another 30% of domestic trunk route tickets that could be sold if there was capacity at the right times to sell it, so in downturns these gravy times are never really going to see much decline as there is significant excess market to fuel it. International is a different ballgame, and ebbs and flows with economic terms as most routes are saturated with wide body internationals.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43 Inches - That would be painting a hot red l@ser target on your ass would it. Flying munitions during a full scale war would be the last thing you'd want to be doing.

If you do take it on and fly near a hot zone dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe. A goat herder with an rpg can hit a low slow transport, let alone a trained soldier. Ask some of the early herc pilots into Afghanistan how that went...

:ugh:

Such an asinine statement. You know nothing.....

[43Inches]

43 Inches -

:ugh:

Such an asinine statement. You know nothing.....

I guess you havn't seen the actual pictures of the burning transports that were hit on approach until they changed the approach path to a high diving one specifically to avoid RPGs . Of course cant post pics as it was 'classified'. Then there was the 747 stall due to loading issues, and the Airbus that ended up in a minefield after being shot down by a SAM. But hey, you can believe hauling into hot zones is safe if you want.

You think these freight operaters will be safe in a full blown war when they stuff up regularly in peace time, with regular hull losses. If you are going to do it, keep your wits about you and monitor the loads personally. Theres a lot more traps than passenger bussing.

[Gnadenburg]

Take a chill-pill. I was being satirical and well-indicating of the still very low risk of flying freight and coming to grief some ways from a war zone. Not sure we needed to get all serious? The Russian threat is far more reaching than Afghanistan. At a guess, I doubt 747’s loaded with Javelins or Vietnam-era artillery rounds would be landing in the Eastern Ukraine.

Still, if a young Aussie pilot, go abroad when you can. A lifetime flying domestically would be unfortunate.

[43Inches]

On statistics flying large cargo aircraft is far more dangerous than passenger hauling. There are far fewer cargo flights than passenger flights and much higher accident rates. This is due to a number of factors, not least of which being the cargo itself is more hazardous and liable to gross errors that are just not encountered on passenger flights. The UPS 747 freighter lithium battery fire a prime example and the National Air 747 crash at Kandahar due poor loading are two of the most notable but it doesn't take long to find hundreds of accidents even in recent times. The loss rate of 747s alone is huge, with at least two crashed at Halifax due loading and runway issues. The other big issue is the working conditions, long hours at night, with a lot of monotony, meaning tired pilots making mistakes on load sheets and bad decision making, as highlighted in the Halifax crashes.

I'm not saying these things to exaggerate or scare, its to highlight the threats you face doing this type of flying, which is not commonplace in passenger operations.

Contract freighters into warzones are another thing all together, at present Russia is only at war with Ukraine, not its suppliers. In Afghanistan all aircraft were targets so contract and military alike were targeted and downed. A loaded large jet with weapons is an easy target and things would be much different if the war became global, and Russia lost the plot completely. Then there's just sabotage to these supply chains as well if it goes global. Let's face it none of us have lived through a global world war, so it's easy to forget what happens when everything becomes a fair game target. The US lost a lot of transports in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, just with local issues. Most don't even realise that the US lost almost 800 F-4 Phantoms and 31 B-52s in Vietnam because they are good at confusing the numbers.

Global war is unlikely, if we believe the news Russia has lost almost all it's capacity to fight its small front in Ukraine, so the idea they will spread to other fronts is very low anyway.

[Gnadenburg]

747F is a very, very low risk job. And I just pub tested it. None of the pilots present knew anybody killed flying 747F but we all knew people killed in GA & the military. 🤪

[43Inches]

On that pub test GA in Australia is way more dangerous than flying for the RAAF. Guess we should allow F-35s as GA aircraft.

[Gnadenburg]

That’s an odd connection.

[Ollie Onion]

It is going to be a bloody mess, as it has been stated above though, Australasia has generally been pretty resilient to worldwide recession. The UK and USA will be a bloodbath with furlough being the word by Christmas. Of course the other option is that Putin will claim the win at home with the new territory and won't push any further except to reinforce the new border and the West will protest but won't push Ukraine to retake it and the whole thing will fizzle combined with a Worldwide recovery as stability returns...... Thats the excitment of the current mix of events, we actually have no idea.

[Trojan1981]

Afghanistan was a great place to fly, and leaving the military to fly as a contractor was great too. Shootdowns in Afghan were actually very rare. Iraq was worse, but that abated. I actually felt much safer doing that kind of flying than I ever did in GA in Australia. More mates have been killed flying in GA too.

Civil aviation is going to continue to be a tough gig, recession, war or boom. Salaries and conditions are not improving in real terms ever again, even if the market booms. If that's what you want to do, enjoy the good times but otherwise embrace the suck.

[Icarus2001]

When has the world ever been stable?
Chaos is the new normal.
Live your life without worrying about the click-bait view of the world. You will be a lot happier

Agree almost completely, Although I would say not the NEW normal, always normal.
What makes everything seem worse now is the breathless ravings of the media. For example, heavy rain has become a “weather event” and so on.
Putin has just about achieved his goal anyway, the end is in sight for a negotiated withdrawal.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43 Inches
If you do take it on and fly near a hot zone dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe.
I'm with National - and THEY NEVER "talk you into low valley approaches". What an asinine comment.


National Air 747 crash at Kandahar due poor loading It was not at Kandahar. That was back in 2013 and just like the pax world, SOPS get changed as result of blood spilled. Lots of history of pax aircraft being loaded wrongly, or SOPs weak leaving loading errors un checked. The load taken on board in 2013 was never going to work, and the load master training was not as rigorous as it is today.

If you are going to do it, keep your wits about you and monitor the loads personally. Another Asinine comment. Thank you for telling us how do do our job. :ugh: Not that I feel like engaging with an alarmist ignoramus like yourself, but every load is walked by the pilot with the loadmaster pre takeoff - its called "walking the load".

[43Inches]

43 Inches

I'm with National - and THEY NEVER "talk you into low valley approaches". What an asinine comment.


It was not at Kandahar. That was back in 2013 and just like the pax world, SOPS get changed as result of blood spilled. Lots of history of pax aircraft being loaded wrongly, or SOPs weak leaving loading errors un checked. The load taken on board in 2013 was never going to work, and the load master training was not as rigorous as it is today.

Another Asinine comment. Thank you for telling us how do do our job. :ugh: Not that I feel like engaging with an alarmist ignoramus like yourself, but every load is walked by the pilot with the loadmaster pre takeoff - its called "walking the load".

Sorry but is 'Asinine' the word of the day at your preschool? You sound like you are trying to sound intelligent but its coming across as just plain stupid. I'm obviously not aimings tricks of the trade at experienced pilots. Its for new players as I said earlier. Maybe you should work on improving your vocabulary on those long flights....

Ps you are not the only freight pilot in the world... although you make it sound like you are. And National are not the only contract operators. BTW I was refering to a procedure that was originally in place in Afghanistan, and was more related to Hercs.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

No 43,
Just admit when you are wrong.
have you ever flown freight in a wide body ? Or even flown a wide body ?
You were being unnecessary alarmist in your “sage” advice for freighter pilots.

And who gives a toss about Herc Ops ? Nothing to do with contract freight Ops.

[SIUYA]

747F is a very, very low risk job. And I just pub tested it. None of the pilots present knew anybody killed flying 747F but we all knew people killed in GA & the military.

UPS Airlines Flight 6 B747-400F on a cargo flight between Dubai and Cologne on 03 September 2010. In-flight fire caused the aircraft to crash, killing both crew members, the only people on board.

[Gnadenburg]

In sticking with the clear inference of my post, neither I, nor blokes at the pub knew those unlucky souls. There’s many more freighter accidents we all know about, however, it ain’t the Memphis Belle!

Something strange has happened to my country. It is a nanny state loaded with the fearful. Think I’ll go abroad and fly those knife-edge freighter missions.

[KAPAC]

Out of the dozen or so pilots I’m seeing going to states to work it’s the jet lag and lifestyle that is the biggest discussion item not RPG’s.
US tax , state tax or worldwide tax while on a E3 visa ? Bases and gateways , 747 vs 777 vs 767 . Matching fleets with lifestyle/ pay and working out if they can return to their happy place on regular basis .
Watching blokes who thought they where retired , semi retired , seeing out their last few years topping up the super or long time FO’s, all getting excited about this opportunity is fantastic .
I’m envious but my misses has confirmed again just now that I’m happier doing what I’m doing !

[Ollie Onion]

I would be seriously concerned going to the states now, the economy will tank especially if the USA is drawn further into the Ukraine mess and pilots will be furloughed as quickly as they have been recruited.

[43Inches]

No 43,
Just admit when you are wrong.
have you ever flown freight in a wide body ? Or even flown a wide body ?
You were being unnecessary alarmist in your “sage” advice for freighter pilots.

And who gives a toss about Herc Ops ? Nothing to do with contract freight Ops.

Not sure what you are arguing, but statistics are what they are, cargo ops are more dangerous than passenger ops for reasons I already listed. If you want to argue the sky isn't blue than fair enough, but again you are talking like you are the one that has no idea what goes on in these aircraft, or are reasonably new on them. I get it you or a mate flies for National, cant tarnish that name but it's just the nature of the job, and you are proving that pilots need more education on the dangers present.

https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/in-need-of-attention/

Hull loss rate of 1.41 per 1000 cargo aircraft compared to 0.4 per 1000 for passenger on large jet transports. If you include Turboprops its even worse.

The same goes for land transport, you are more likely to be injured or be involved in an accident hauling in a truck over being a bus driver. Just different types of work and working conditions.

And as far as alarmism, its no different to saying to a VFR pilot they will die if they fly into IMC. I'll say again, you fly freight get to know the traps, it has more hazards than passenger ops and more threats that can catch you out if you are unwary. Contract freight is where you will find the greatest amount of hazards as the loads vary, the routes vary and so on.

Yet again, an ignorant fool getting caught out making comments on a subject he knows nothing about.

Give it up, the game is up, you are getting worse by the day.


And sorry to say that you are just a sad bitter individual with anger issues. I really suggest you go outside and leave the computer work for those who can handle it. It will be better for your mental health if you don't participate in PPRune for a while, you obviously take things too seriously and personally to move forward. The fact you jumped threads just to snipe at me shows a very sad existance, that you are fixated on what I say and that you have to debase me personally without contributing at all to the thread shows severe personality issues. Get help sir.

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43-
I was not arguing about the statistics of safety, though I think that you can cherry pick the stats. eg Freighter ops in Africa are probably deleterious to the accident stats.
I was pointing out the ERROR of your stated location of the National crash.
I was also pointing out that NOONE says to operate the aircraft like a military transport. dont let them talk you into low valley approaches as safe.
I told you I work for National. Please tell me who you work for? I doubt you have had any wide body command experience, and I doubt that you are ex military. But I have no doubt that you are a self professed expert on all topics, from law, to finance, to psychology to medicine to politics to well just about everything.
And as far as alarmism, its no different to saying to a VFR pilot they will die if they fly into IMC. Ah, yes it is.
Your "advice" on making sure one knows the risks of the trade, is condescending and insulting.

[43Inches]

43-
I was not arguing about the statistics of safety, though I think that you can cherry pick the stats. eg Freighter ops in Africa are probably deleterious to the accident stats.
I was pointing out the ERROR of your stated location of the National crash.
I was also pointing out that NOONE says to operate the aircraft like a military transport.
I told you I work for National. Please tell me who you work for? I doubt you have had any wide body command experience, and I doubt that you are ex military. But I have no doubt that you are a self professed expert on all topics, from law, to finance, to psychology to medicine to politics to well just about everything.
Ah, yes it is.
Your "advice" on making sure one knows the risks of the trade, is condescending and insulting.

Dude you have lost the plot, I never refered to National directly. You are nit picking essentially what was a statement on an in house joke from 2007 about what was being told to a number of pilots going into Afghanistan.

As for the National 747 crash, I sincerely apologise, it was at Bagram. Does not change that it happened.

As for who I work for or have worked for it would be very silly to post that on an annonymous forum in an Industry where 90% of operators have stipulations banning public comment.

The rest still stands, freight is more dangerous than passenger ops. If you read the airsafety notice, second highest accident rate area was North America. Africa as usual is just the highest.

Again it shows if you are a freighter pilot you are probably in need of some education on the traps of your own trade. The way you talk suggests you are a brick wall to this and wish to portray some form of rosy picture as to thev reality of the job. Pilots share information in the dangers, thats what we do. Keeping mum just means the same things happen over and over again. Air freight statistics show the same types of accidents being repeated regularly, loading errors, dangerous goods accidents etc..

I mean the National 747 crash happened in 2013, so 40 plus years after the 747 took flight your company learned that it needs to ensure freight is loaded correctly.... yeah they made changes after that, however how many other companies are yet to learn. Maybe its warning to look out for other hazards that have not resulted in a hull loss yet, as that is what you are saying triggers change at your outfit. "Your stuff is safe because we learn from our crashes..."

PS this thread is hypotheticals including expanded war around the globe, if you think an international freighter will be safe in a world conflict, well thats a delusion I cant fix. Although I already said that in my opinion global war is very unlikely.

[lucille]

Rex….. “But I have no doubt that you are a self professed expert on all topics, from law, to finance, to psychology to medicine to politics to well just about everything.”

So, basically just your typical Qantas pilot, then.

[43Inches]

One thing I have to ask though. If these contract jobs are so great why are they offering so much to take turboprop FOs from Australia. It sounds counter intuitive to what is being said when there should be thousands of applicants from the US lining up. I mean the pay is supposedly double at least what RJ pilots in the US earn.

[Chocks Away]

The US can't crew their own fleets (https://pilotsglobal.com/jobs) right now 43' if you had an ear to the ground.
All major US airlines now recruiting as are (and have been for some time) their huge feeder regional operators - some of them actually parked-up or bankrupt now ... the huge Turkish delight is back on the field with DEC's as well as all the Middle Eastern and Indian major and Supp carriers... RyanAir; Jet2; Vietnam; Canada the list goes on.
Take your pick and Happy Landings :ok:

[Capn Rex Havoc]

43-As for who I work for or have worked for it would be very silly to post that on an annonymous forum in an Industry where 90% of operators have stipulations banning public comment.
Don't need to know who you are working for - and don't care,

But clearly you have no wide body jet experience,
you are not ex military,

and I doubt that you are even an airline captain....

[43Inches]

43-
Don't need to know who you are working for - and don't care,

But clearly you have no wide body jet experience,
you are not ex military,

and I doubt that you are even an airline captain....

And true to pprune form your vast experience is used to debase me rather than offer some useful tips to new players. If you are a captain I pitty your FOs.

[43Inches]

The US can't crew their own fleets (https://pilotsglobal.com/jobs) right now 43' if you had an ear to the ground.
All major US airlines now recruiting as are (and have been for some time) their huge feeder regional operators - some of them actually parked-up or bankrupt now ... the huge Turkish delight is back on the field with DEC's as well as all the Middle Eastern and Indian major and Supp carriers... RyanAir; Jet2; Vietnam; Canada the list goes on.
Take your pick and Happy Landings :ok:

Thats why Im bemused people are choosing the freighters over just taking a cushy major airline position while the music plays.

[Chocks Away]

That's because the US widebody freighters are providing the E3 & Gleim / ATPL help and are higher paying than the US Regional / feeder operators, who had been doing it for some time already.

[AerialPerspective]

I guess you havn't seen the actual pictures of the burning transports that were hit on approach until they changed the approach path to a high diving one specifically to avoid RPGs . Of course cant post pics as it was 'classified'. Then there was the 747 stall due to loading issues, and the Airbus that ended up in a minefield after being shot down by a SAM. But hey, you can believe hauling into hot zones is safe if you want.

You think these freight operaters will be safe in a full blown war when they stuff up regularly in peace time, with regular hull losses. If you are going to do it, keep your wits about you and monitor the loads personally. Theres a lot more traps than passenger bussing.

The 747 with loading 'issues' had nothing to do with being in a war zone, someone cocked up the loading, end of story.

[43Inches]

The 747 with loading 'issues' had nothing to do with being in a war zone, someone cocked up the loading, end of story.

I agree with that statement, but it was the nature of the load that led to it being loaded incorrectly. The load was Military vehicles, and being armored they are significantly heavier than standard vehicles including trucks. I believe they were 2 MRAPs (similar to Aussie Bushmasters) at 12 tons and 3 cougars at 18 tons vs a truck of the same dimensions weighing in at somewhere around 5 tons. Quite conceivable they restrained them in a similar way to the lighter vehicles, I have no idea, that's internal National stuff that Cpt Rex might know more about. NTSB highlights that the loadmaster did not have sufficient training in loads outside of ULDs, which as Cpt Rex said earlier has been rectified since. If the load was handled by military transports as normally would be the case they would have known how to restrain them. So in this case being employed to fly military equipment to/from a war zone was part of the issue. In any case it highlights the dangers of non-routine loads whether you think it was war zone related or not.

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/accidentreports/reports/aar1501.pdf

Well worth a read if you are intending to do this kind of work, the Captain never inspected the load even after being told by the FO it had moved on the flight from Camp Bastion to Bagram, including a broken strap, and used words like he 'hoped' the loadmaster had beefed up the straps for the next flight.

He later stated, “those things are so…heavy you’d think, though, that they probably wouldn’t hardly move no matter what.”


One of the last statements from the captain before they departed.

And I'm not focusing on National here, a Newbie could be flying a transport in Africa or Russia or where ever, not even a heavy jet transport, anything really, if you are unsure get some advice. Its more for the newcomer to read this sort of stuff and be aware when something is amiss and double check it's been rectified. The crew were not heavily experienced and were caught out by an unusual cargo. Had the Captain at Bagram stopped to think why the cargo moved, or strap broke and sought further advice, maybe a conversation with some military loadmasters at Bagram for instance may have changed the outcome. Rather than just saying it was 'a loading issue'.

It also sounds a like a lot of new low experienced crew are moving into these jobs, so even more reason to keep your wits about. No different to what is happening in the lower ends of airlines as well, at least in the airline game its very repetitive with not a lot of variation from the normal.

[minigundiplomat]

Hey 4.3 inches,

You seem to know everything about everything. What part of Melbourne are you from?

[43Inches]

Hey 4.3 inches,

You seem to know everything about everything. What part of Melbourne are you from?

Out west at present, and you?