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Madmatt
24th Aug 2022, 12:49
When the Russians invaded Ukraine both Boeing and Airbus quite rightly withdrew engineering support for any Russian registered aircraft, yet there are hundreds still flying. How is this possible after all this time? Surely they canít be relying on cannabalisation of other a/c or producing their own spares? They would be dropping like flies if they were.

DaveReidUK
24th Aug 2022, 18:51
How many hundred do you think are currently flying ?

Big Pistons Forever
24th Aug 2022, 19:36
TIR.............

FUMR
24th Aug 2022, 20:04
Making a quick check courtesy of google, it would appear that there were roughly 340 Airbus types and 330 Boeing types in service prior to the unpleasantries. I can see very roughly 100 flying at the moment.

Rt Hon Jim Hacker MP
24th Aug 2022, 20:16
A look at the arrivals boards would suggest that the most Russians have a very limited choice of destinations. Should be plenty of accommodation available in Courchevel this winter.

autoflight
25th Aug 2022, 00:22
Would sympathetic Boeing & Airbus customers in other countries order parts for them? If so, this might be hard to prevent.

Beamr
25th Aug 2022, 03:58
Would sympathetic Boeing & Airbus customers in other countries order parts for them? If so, this might be hard to prevent.
those countries are very few (Eritrea, Syria, Iran, North Korea, et al) and by doing so they would risk themselves ending on a sanctioned countries list. Which is the reason why Philippines canceled its order of Mi-17 helicopters and is now looking for chinooks. Also, Indonesia, Egypt and Algeria have cancelled their SU35 FJ considerations for the same reason (and the fact that those have not exactly shined in the bsttle field and Russia apparently not being able to deliver due to sanctions).

All in all, highly unlikely that anyone will do it for the russkies.

KRviator
25th Aug 2022, 04:24
How many hundred do you think are currently flying ?Seems to be quite a few still out and about. Filtering FR24 by Rego = RA, and ICAO Code = B or A you get the following ADS-B targets.

A couple of dozen random clicks to make sure there weren't any ring-ins' in the data found a lone Turbo-Commander caught up in the filter, but that's about it. The rest all seem to have come from Seattle or Toulouse.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/866x440/prunera_d4194bcf5eaa5ce7ecd296cd0ff0636fee2842d6.jpg

DaveReidUK
25th Aug 2022, 11:26
Thanks for that.

I make that 13 operators, unless anyone has sharper eyes and can add any:

AFL Aeroflot Russian Airlines
AUL Smartavia Airlines
LLM Yamal Airlines
NWC North-West Air Company
NWS Nordwind Airlines
PBD Pobeda
RSY I-Fly
SBI S7 Airlines
SDM Rossiya Airlines
SHU Aurora Airlines
SVR Ural Airlines
TYA NordStar
UTA UT Air

Less Hair
25th Aug 2022, 12:11
Could China build and supply western style aircraft tyres?

Beamr
25th Aug 2022, 12:20
Could China build and supply western style aircraft tyres?
You mean like the ones they sold to Russian military vehicles? :E

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1500599590420107264

zerograv
25th Aug 2022, 13:03
Boeing and Airbus quite rightly withdrew engineering support for any Russian registered aircraft, yet there are hundreds still flying.


Rest assured that the Boeings and Airbuses that Putin confiscated will continue to fly for a very long time.

For parts and whatever, those can always be smuggled via China, or even be 'Made in China'.

Aren't Airbuses and Boeings licensed to be assembled in China ? They are !!!
Therefore, whatever happens to be necessary, can certainly be arranged ...

A bit of thread drift ...

Putin would not go for Ukraine without the huge backdoor called China. China will benefit of the vast Russian natural resources, and there isn't that much stuff that Putin can not get via China. It is, as China normally calls it, a 'win win' situation.

FUMR
25th Aug 2022, 14:14
And what if sanctions are brought against China for aiding Russia to bypass the sanctions against them? There are over 2000 Airbus alone in China. Not sure about Boeings.

tdracer
25th Aug 2022, 17:16
Assuming roughly half the fleet is parked, those aircraft can be cannibalized to keep the others flying for quite a while before the standard wear items start to run short. If Russia is smart (big if, as demonstrated by their performance to date in Ukrain), they're currently working on domestic production of the more critical wear items.
The bigger question is, will it ever be viable to return all those Russian controlled aircraft to service outside Russia.

Less Hair
25th Aug 2022, 17:20
Just one issue: Who will insure them? They are not treated according to procedures. Maybe they were even sort of misused like over cycled, over houred or ill-maintained with make shift solutions? They will not return to the West.

DaveReidUK
25th Aug 2022, 17:27
Many lessors have effectively written off their aircraft trapped in Russia as they will never be leasable again.

Less Hair
25th Aug 2022, 17:46
They will end up like those US-made cars in Cuba.

Splat
25th Aug 2022, 17:52
Gawd help us. Last time I went in one those in Havana, braking downhill an the car went sideways. Not to mention the 1/4 steering wheel input before anything happened.

Thankfully never went above 30mphÖ.

cura
25th Aug 2022, 18:49
Many lessors have effectively written off their aircraft trapped in Russia as they will never be leasable again.

They may have effectively written off their aircraft trapped in Russia BUT the lessors have not really shelled money out, they have "bought" these airframes with money borrowed from western banks and now they make insurance claims from western insurance agents/syndicates, hoping not to lose.

The longer the RU/UKR "special military operation" continues the more those airframes become worthless, but if it ends soon then IMHO they will be approaching authorities to "get" them accepted by the cheapest means possible.....

Holding War risk insurance on a lease is one thing, insurance against a special military operation is another.

DuncanDoenitz
25th Aug 2022, 19:40
Just one issue: Who will insure them? They are not treated according to procedures. Maybe they were even sort of misused like over cycled, over houred or ill-maintained with make shift solutions? They will not return to the West.
And just another issue: who will certify their airworthiness? There's not a EASA Part145/Part M organisation (or worldwide ICAO equivalent, outside of Russia, Belarus and DPRK) is going to touch them with a bargepole.

Lonewolf_50
25th Aug 2022, 20:25
Rest assured that the Boeings and Airbuses that Putin confiscated will continue to fly for a very long time.
For parts and whatever, those can always be smuggled via China, or even be 'Made in China'.
Aren't Airbuses and Boeings licensed to be assembled in China ? They are ! Therefore, whatever happens to be necessary, can certainly be arranged ...
A bit of thread drift ...
Putin would not go for Ukraine without the huge backdoor called China. China will benefit of the vast Russian natural resources, and there isn't that much stuff that Putin can not get via China. It is, as China normally calls it, a 'win win' situation. Makes sense to me.
And what if sanctions are brought against China for aiding Russia to bypass the sanctions against them? There are over 2000 Airbus alone in China. Not sure about Boeings. The risks of imposing sanctions on China are a bit higher, though, so whomever considers this will tread with great caution.
They will end up like those US-made cars in Cuba. I was thinking something similar (how long the Tomcats kept flying in Iran) but yours is a better example.

Flying Clog
25th Aug 2022, 20:57
The Boeings and Airbuses owned by Russian airlines have been written off. They'll be canabilized, they'll become death traps over time, and that's a shame, but I suppose it serves them right for pinching them from the lessors in the first place.

These aircraft will never step foot out of Russia ever again, or they'll be impounded immediately for airworthiness reasons, obviously. Their maintenance records won't be in order, ever. So will never be airworthy.

And Russian made aircraft won't be approved airworthy by Western authorities for many, many years going forward.

This is how it plays out. What a shame for Russia, and it's people.

If China gets involved, well, the West has already shown that we can stomach higher energy bills to counteract the Russian scheme and do the right thing. It's not a great leap to imagine people don't need the latest plastic junk, or a 75 inch television for 500 euros. The Chinese can go to the sin bin too. After all, there's a few people bitter about how things played out with the seasonal flu 2019-2021.

Karma.

andrasz
26th Aug 2022, 07:03
Holding War risk insurance on a lease is one thing, insurance against a special military operation is another.

The merit of the claim will be decided based on the fine print in the insurance contract, and has nothing to do with what newspeak terminology the belligerents wish to use.
In any case, it is not the war risk that applies, that covers damage to or destruction of the aircraft/occupants due to military action. This falls more into the political risk category (state expropriation without compensation) which is a completely different animal.

DaveReidUK
26th Aug 2022, 10:54
A somewhat simplistic overview of how Aeroflot's WB fleet is currently being used: How Aeroflot Is Surviving After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine — Part 1: Widebodies (https://airlinegeeks.com/2022/08/25/how-aeroflot-is-surviving-after-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-part-1-widebodies/)