UAP's....Real , threats, or just plain bunk?

[SASless]

The US Government released an unclassified Report on its recent investigation into UAP's (for us old men that would be UFO's) and the potential threat to National Security they may pose and also suggested the UAP's may present a hazard to air navigation.

Of 144 incidents....the Task Force was able to confirm exactly one to be a delating large balloon (so says the Report)....all of the rest remain in the questioned category.

What does all of this portend for National Defense requirements for Western Nations?

What if they are actually break through technologies by Russia and/or China?

A bit far fetched perhaps....but what if it ain't from here on Earth that is behind these incidents?


https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf

[NutLoose]

There is a thread running in jet blast in case you don’t know.

[SASless]

This is about possible National Security threats and potential breakthrough technology by non-Western powers.

Jet Blast is for non-technical discussions.

If we were talking about flying saucers or little green men...or alien kidnapping for medical experimentation.....that would be fit for Jet Blast and the quality of debate at that forum.

[NutLoose]

Ahhh ok, so you’re talking UAV’s then……


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/246x488/image_a89dc4d8680f5b147916c19d613ca53fa0314ae3.jpeg
Go in peace…

[langleybaston]

The rational approach, I suggest, is to keep an open mind. Galileo took a lot of stick and turned out to be correct.

Dare I say "the truth is out there", but would we recognise it as such if we saw it.?

Keep an open, but sceptical, mind.

[Haraka]

L B I see "open minds" in many places.
I would like to see, perhaps, some more "enquiring minds"
Interestingly some misinterpreted meteorological phenomena have come to greater light in structured "UAP" analyses, including vertical "beams" of light in the extreme latitudes due to atmospheric refraction anomalies, as well of others such as the famous "sprites " (lightning type flashes going upwards, away from the ground ).
By critically examining the unknown ,information is often garnered into the known , as ever,in scientific rigour.
With all respect for your qualified opinion as ever.,
Haraka

[NutLoose]

I’m open minded, but for someone to travel half way across the universe then not to say hi would be odd, well from a human point of view.
As for states using such vehicles I could totally believe it, didn’t the US do some experiments to see if their “UFO’s would be reported and how.

Incidentally I watched something on Sky last night about the bug in a US embassy for 7 years! and it was fascinating, see

https://hackaday.com/2015/12/08/theremins-bug/

[SASless]

The questions can be answered with enough investigation and research no doubt.

I suppose the first step is to determine as best possible exactly what IS being seen....and not just settle for a mere description.

If multi-sourced data is available....it seem linking the evidence that will confirm or deny the "seen" UAP's are either a naturally occurring phenomenon or being caused by a man-made cause.

The other possibility is what makes this such a challenge as we here on Earth take it for granted that we are gifted ones in all of Creation.

There is a lot of other places we can only hypothesize about that if they exist....our imagined importance is going to take a huge kick in the pants.

But...first let's examine each of these occurrences using ever means possible to see if we can find an acceptable scientific explanation for them.

[Lyneham Lad]

Hmm, I feel a quote from Sherlock Holmes (courtesy Conan-Doyle) coming on...

[NutLoose]

https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/the-pentagon-just-admitted-to-testing-ufo-wreckage-heres-what-they-have-discovered-3436577.html

used to be CNN India?

[Vzlet]

It is a rather fermitable issue!

[ShyTorque]

The rational approach, I suggest, is to keep an open mind. Galileo took a lot of stick and turned out to be correct.

Dare I say "the truth is out there", but would we recognise it as such if we saw it.?

Keep an open, but sceptical, mind.

My view, too. Seeing is not necessarily believing, however.

Most people similarly don’t believe in “Bigfoot/Sasquatch” or whatever. I’m not sure I do. But I do know that the existence of Mountain Gorillas wasn’t acknowledged by the western world until 1902.

[waffler]

If us humans are flying a little helicopter on Mars, is it too far fetched to think that other more advanced societies are doing something similar on Earth ?

[Ninthace]

If us humans are flying a little helicopter on Mars, is it too far fetched to think that other more advanced societies are doing something similar on Earth ?
Probably. Unless the laws have physics have changed, they will be waiting a fair while for the video. :)

[SASless]

That wee helicopter thing on Mars is changing how we see that Planet...and that is Man Made.

Pretty amazing ain't it.

What if we are not the most advanced creatures in the Universe?

Let's apply our science to resolving these UAP events and perhaps settle the question of whether they are in fact explainable or not.

[Ninthace]

Not a UAP story but It will show you how stories start and how credible and genuine observers may still be fooled. In the 70s, I was the First Officer of the Watch at a naval shore establishment in the UK. Around 2200, I was called by the guardroom to be told they thought the base might be under attack. When I got there, the duty staff said they were getting reports of an armoured vehicle firing at the base. That did not seem credible in darkest Hampshire, so I sent a team from the Duty Watch to the far end of the base, where the reports were coming from, to investigate and report back.
They confirmed there was a vehicle some distance outside the wire. They could not see it but they could hear it driving around across the fields and could see lights moving. More worryingly, they said they could hear short bursts of what sounded like heavy calibre gun fire. My first thought was a nearby Army camp might be having an exercise but a quick call eliminated that possibility. As whatever it was, was off base and there were no reports of damage or injuries, there was not much I could do - this was before the era of live-armed guards and the ROE at the time would have prevented me from arming the guard, let alone ordering them to shoot at an unidentified target.
Instead I rang the police, told them what has been seen and heard and where the vehicle was thought to be. Eventually, they called back to tell us it was a Land Rover full of slightly inebriated men out lamping for rabbits and the bursts of “heavy cal” were them blazing away with shotguns.
Now without that last sentence, the story would have been about credible military observers from a military base describing an attack, possibly by some form of “military” vehicle armed with heavy automatic weapons, which subsequently disappeared without trace and by now would a a “mystery”

[Friendly Pelican]

If there is indeed intelligent life out there - the Drake equation tends towards zero, and may very well be zero - there exist only two alternatives, with one break point.

The Drake equation speaks to a technological civilization. For the sake of my argument, I have to introduce another factor which speaks to a technological civilization developing interstellar technology. Make it as small as you want: I make it really, really, really really small, but non-zero. Interstellar travel will be conducted over the course of hundreds of thousands generations, or on the basis of a new understanding of the universe.

So, for the sake of discussion, let's call my new equation Swan - or Goose, or Maverick - I don't care...

Remember, of course, that the terms at the left of the Drake equation are ineffably large. But, under any sort of rational examination, Drake yields an astonishingly large number in respect of the Milky Way, only.

Nevertheless, if:
1. pSwan = 0. No interstellar civilization. Go home. Be good to your family. Ask your religion of choice to explain why Heisenberg's Indeterminability Principle is so fundamentally built into the universe. Or buy a cat; Schrodinger had one, I believe.
2. pSwan > 0. Lots of interstellar civilization. And, by the certainty of probability, far in advance of what we can conceive.
- a. They're hostile. They've travelled across the universe using technology we can barely conceive. Dig your own grave, now, or call Will Smith and make a movie.
- b. They're peaceful. How would you announce your presence to a backward planetary civilization which only recently worked out that on-planet xenophobia wasn't necessarily a good thing, to speak nothing of off-planet xenophobia? Hint - Sagan's awful movie Cosmos, and/or a controlled release of evidence into the mainstream. Suitably fuzzy HUD pictures, anyone?

Application of The Razors - Occam's and Hanlon's - says we should be just as careful dismissing the simplistic arguments of social-media rationalism as we are dismissive of the tin-foil brigade. And, as we examine the possibility that we're not alone, Hitchens' Razor identifies the dilemma - no side can prove their case.

I don't instinctively understand statistics - do you? Hint - no-one does: which is why Monaco continues to be so rich on the basis of no intrinsic recommendatory qualities. I'd much rather prefer the beaches of the Sunshine Coast: right handers, and gentle for this gentleman's capabilities...

Look: I wear no foil hat - pointless in my case, anyways, as there are no brainwaves to shield - but the sheer size of the numbers tells me that we are not alone. The only question is whether we are alone, right now - and what we should be doing about it.

Science exists to be proven wrong. For your consideration...

[SASless]

During my formative youth the period between pimples and girls....I was exposed to number theory on a large black chalk board by a Math Teacher who used a chalked horizontal line drawn on said board....and explanations about "limits" among other topics germane to the discussion.

I did well with the small part of the scale....and easily grasped the infinitely close but not touching thing....but when we got to the other end of the line....where his comment about an ever expanding Universe...well I got tripped up proper like.

I had to ask....if our Universe was expanding.....just what was it that it was expanding into...to say his explanation failed to illuminate the ol' lightbulb in my wee brain is an understatement.

Short version....there is much I do not understand about all of this....there is science, math, physics and the like that are far beyond my ability to comprehend.....in addition to the mind of the female of the human species.

As the wise ol' Pelican avers....we are just one very small insignificant orb in a very big neighborhood and there is a lot to be learned yet.

I am still waiting for Steven Hawking to tell me if there is God with a thumb on the scale.

If some of these UAP's are in fact break through technologies and thus man made....as in all Weapon/Counter Weapon campaigns.....should we not be able to figure that out rather smartest as compared to identifying extra-terrestrial sources of the occurrences and thus resolve any National Security concerns?

[Ninthace]

During my formative youth the period between pimples and girls....I was exposed to number theory on a large black chalk board by a Math Teacher who used a chalked horizontal line drawn on said board....and explanations about "limits" among other topics germane to the discussion.

I did well with the small part of the scale....and easily grasped the infinitely close but not touching thing....but when we got to the other end of the line....where his comment about an ever expanding Universe...well I got tripped up proper like.

I had to ask....if our Universe was expanding.....just what was it that it was expanding into...to say his explanation failed to illuminate the ol' lightbulb in my wee brain is an understatement.

Short version....there is much I do not understand about all of this....there is science, math, physics and the like that are far beyond my ability to comprehend.....in addition to the mind of the female of the human species.

As the wise ol' Pelican avers....we are just one very small insignificant orb in a very big neighborhood and there is a lot to be learned yet.

I am still waiting for Steven Hawking to tell me if there is God with a thumb on the scale.

If some of these UAP's are in fact break through technologies and thus man made....as in all Weapon/Counter Weapon campaigns.....should we not be able to figure that out rather smartest as compared to identifying extra-terrestrial sources of the occurrences and thus resolve any National Security concerns?
The expanding universe is not expanding into anything - it's just getting bigger by the way we measure it. It is a bit like asking what the time was before time started,

[etudiant]

The questions can be answered with enough investigation and research no doubt.

I suppose the first step is to determine as best possible exactly what IS being seen....and not just settle for a mere description.

If multi-sourced data is available....it seem linking the evidence that will confirm or deny the "seen" UAP's are either a naturally occurring phenomenon or being caused by a man-made cause.

The other possibility is what makes this such a challenge as we here on Earth take it for granted that we are gifted ones in all of Creation.

There is a lot of other places we can only hypothesize about that if they exist....our imagined importance is going to take a huge kick in the pants.

But...first let's examine each of these occurrences using ever means possible to see if we can find an acceptable scientific explanation for them.

Spot on!
There has not ever been a real full spectrum investigation afaik, although that is clearly the way forward.
Even the recent Navy aviator reports with the IR sensor video just have the pilot accounts, nothing from the other resources that surround any Navy exercise.
The performances reported are really incompatible with any human artifact, huge accelerations to hypersonic, hovering, right angle turns and submergence are not in the cards, even theoretically..
That suggests some kind of sensor error or some novel electromagnetic phenomenon, sort of a super ball lightening.
Given that the atmosphere produces really peculiar effects such as long, meandering tornadoes, I'd want to eliminate those possibilities first.

[Aegis8]

Interesting topic!

Biology first, let's face it humans are squishy things and anybody who has gone 7G plus in an aircraft, will understand the limits of the human body. So if one references the reported maneuvers of the UAP's, then:
1. it isn't man made,
2. it is man made, but un-manned, or
3. it is very high tech which provides damping for the human pilots.

Nikola Tesla had designs for a UFO like aerial vehicle, or so the story goes. And these designs disappeared as soon as he died. Many of Tesla's ideas and designs did and do work, even his idea of wireless power distribution. So who is to say that his "UFO" did not/does not work.
The rise in UFO sightings, after his death, may be a clue. But who has the tech?

The Germans, during WW2 were working on "The Bell", designs and tech all disappeared somewhere.

So these UAP's could be man made.

On the other hand, the case for other worldly visitors can also be made. Many ancient writings, include sections about incredible flying machines with powerful weaponry. How could these ancient writers, imagine such technology?
"Sky people" also feature heavily in many ancient and not so ancient cultures. No way of knowing if they were on something or simply speaking the truth. When you watch some documentaries about this, the latter option seems quite plausible.

I, for one, question how some ancient structures were built with amazing precision, with simple tools like hammers and chisels. Otherworldly tech?
And as noted above, these UAP's have amazing maneuverability. Much, much better than any known man made aircraft.

I saw a headline today which went something like this: Are we not simply the ants, in someone's experiment?

Obviously, with the USA defense and FBI asking for more money to counter this possible threat, there will be no big reveal, as many UFO lovers were hoping for.

Anyway, my 2 cents.

[fab777]

I, for one, question how some ancient structures were built with amazing precision, with simple tools like hammers and chisels.

An experienced craftsman can produce amazing things with a simple set of tools…

[Video Mixdown]

An experienced craftsman can produce amazing things with a simple set of tools…
......and an unlimited supply of slave labour. My money is on a mixture of atmospheric/meteorological phenomena, optical illusions and misidentified man-made objects. I suppose it's a bit like ghosts, yetis and the Loch Ness Monster; you're sceptical unless you believe you've seen them for yourself.

[SASless]

Hey....Big Foot is real....but then he is the World's Champion Player of Hide and Seek there has ever been....right?

Why is he called "Big Foot" when his foot prints are described as being rather same sized.....thus accurately called he would be "Big Feet"

[ShyTorque]

Possibly because the only people seeing him are the ones who didn’t do so well at school?

[SASless]

Well....the Scots have fine Whisky and the Loch Ness monster.....which might be related somehow.

[Frostchamber]

I think it makes sense to keep an open mind, especially that small core of instances where phenomena are seen by multiple military personnel simultaneously - as has happened in the latest crop of released videos, but as also happened for example during Operation Mainbrace and the 1952 Washington flap. The "safe" option is probably just to ridicule it all, because no one will make fun of you for that, but it does strike me there's enough in the above category to warrant putting it in the "interesting" pile, without second guessing what's actually going on...

[Aegis8]

An experienced craftsman can produce amazing things with a simple set of tools…
So true and no question about what wonders such a person can create. Now take into account the scale of these projects and the number of highly skilled craftsman required and questions do pop up. If they did it all by hand then kudos to them!

Some questions to answer would be:
1. Which natural phenomenon can reflect radar? Weather, doppler radar excluded of course.
2. Which of these natural phenomenon, can spoof radar systems to show high speeds and high maneuverability? How?
3. Same goes for modern observation equipment.

From there a clearer picture could emerge.

[Ninthace]

So true and no question about what wonders such a person can create. Now take into account the scale of these projects and the number of highly skilled craftsman required and questions do pop up. If they did it all by hand then kudos to them!

Some questions to answer would be:
1. Which natural phenomenon can reflect radar? Weather, doppler radar excluded of course.
2. Which of these natural phenomenon, can spoof radar systems to show high speeds and high maneuverability? How?
3. Same goes for modern observation equipment.

From there a clearer picture could emerge.

Not really, people worhed longer and built over much longer timescales.

1. Top of my head add birds, insects and dust.
2. Have you seen a murmuration? They produce complex rapidly changing patterns travelling at far higher speeds than the individual elements. I am not saying this is the cause, just pointing out that simple phenomena can produce surprislingly complex resultes following only simple rules.
3. And still only fuzzy, poor quality images,

I would be very slow to reach for LGM as the explanation, they are more of a distraction, There are many things in heaven and earth without leaving the solar system in search of an answer.