Single Pilot plant for the A350

[Longtimer]

This would not be a flight that I would book a seat on.
Cathay Pacific Set For Single Pilot Airbus A350 Flights By 2025 - Simple Flying (https://simpleflying.com/cathay-pacific-single-pilot-a350-flights/)

[SloppyJoe]

So do we piss in a bottle, or wake up the resting pilot? Nappies maybe.

[Xeptu]

I believe there will always be two pilots on the flight deck, just that one of them won't be human.

[lucille]

Do they in fact need any human pilots on the flight deck in cruise? With the ever increasing reliability and coverage of modern data comms. is there any reason why the aircraft can’t be controlled remotely from … say a repurposed call centre in Mumbai? The potential cost savings are every airline managers wet dream and therein spells the beginning of the end of piloting as a career.

Bear in mind the USAF has had UAVs tootling around the world for at least two decades now. And it seems like they’ve got the hang of it.

[Farman Biplane]

With POS18 being a 50% paycut, they have already achieved “Single Pilot Salary” in the cockpit!

[S22]

Yes they have but with a team in Creech Nevada flying them.

[8driver]

Yeah, they could use the call center that always wants to sell me a car warranty or says I'm eligible for a new interest rate on my credit card.

[RAT Management]

Personally I think it's a good idea. A good idea to get the f#$@! Out of here!

[Jnr380]

Unmanned passenger carrying flights will not be happening, as no airline/manufacturer will ever accept responsibility if a plane goes down and kills 200+ people. They need a ‘scapegoat’.

Just look at how many Teslas have crashed due to the autopilot mode with no one behind the wheel. Yes it’s a small percentage but still too big for aircraft manufacturers to accept as suitable

[MENELAUS]

Old news. It’s already been trialled on delivery flights with Airbus observers and telemetry from Blagnac.
It’s far from a done deal as yet. Small matter of regulators, at home and en route, signing up to it, let alone all the other technical issues.
It is certainly being looked at by Airbus, and Grumman.

[mothy1583]

Surely they're starting at the wrong section. Install vending machines and get rid of the cabin crew. Imagine the hotel and allowance savings plus income generation by people needing to swipe their card if they want a meal or snack.

[ElZilcho]

lucille

If commercial Aviation had the same safety records as the UAV’s I doubt anyone would ever fly again.
A small percentage of accidents, scaled to the same number of flight hours as Commercial aircraft would see a tremendous loss of life.

Single Pilot cruise is coming, that much I’m sure of. Beyond that? Not in my lifetime I reckon.

mothy1583

Cabin crew are there to meet regulatory requirements for emergencies and general first aid. If the ratio of FA’s to PAX (and Doors) wasn’t regulated then I have no doubt the amount of crew would be at least halved, depending on the Airlines level of service.

[The FUB]

CX recruitment drive to be extended to dogs.

Must be able to bite the pilot if he/she touches any switch. All breeds considered iaw policy, diversity and inclusion.

[MENELAUS]

Must have PR, and be vaccinated for kennel cough.

[controlledrest]

Since POS18 drove recruitment to new levels more and more flights have become in effect single pilot anyway.

Airbus have been very active in this. Single pilot, monitored by a ground 'pilot', who is watching over a dozen flights.

On the plus side I'll be gone before the aircraft, companies and public are ready for this. Glad my kids are heading to other industries.

[Oasis]

At least we can re-use the yellow cups for something…

all we need is a brown cup now.

[Less Hair]

Could this be some pure PR distraction topic just brought up to change some headlines?

[Veruka Salt]

I think you’re right.

[PilotLZ]

I can't see any of that happen in EASA or FAA land in the aftermath of Germanwings. The majority of European or US companies do not allow for a pilot to remain alone in the flight deck even during a three-minute loo break, let alone for hours on end.

[Flex88]

Longtimer

I'm wondering if the countries CX flies overhead will agree with this? Canada, Russia, USA, all EU ???

The only thing Swire Princes have a knack at is cut, cut, cut and lose, lose, lose.. Never innovation.....

[VforVENDETTA]

Cathay wants the pilots they hire now with little or no training, qualifications, abilities or any idea or exposure to aviation prior to cadeting at cathay to be all alone up there at 37,000 feet with 300 passengers and the other pilot in deep sleep?😂

It would be a very efficient way of cleaning the gene pool though. All those on board who will perish would be the dumbest of the dumb. Not a bad idea actually. Darwin would love it.

Keep in mind several local hong kongers throw themselves off buildings every year because some girl dumps them or they'rehaving financial problems etc. And this is the targeted pool of cathay newhires with the new local terms only compensation package they have in place... to be at controls all alone for long periods at cruise altitudes.

There are so many crashes due to a pilot deciding to commit suicide and a lot more which has been prevented only by immediate reaction of the other pilot. We have a few sim instructors here at cathay who lost their :mad: while flying and that's how they were medically grounded hence becoming sim instructors (super nice guys with a wealth of knowledge and ability). Each and every one of those would have been a hull loss of not for the other pilot. This is what one of them told me while telling the story of what happened on that faithful flight when he snapped and had to be physically restrained out of the flight deck after he attempted to dive the aircraft from cruise altitude.

Ask the US airforce why they don't yet even consider putting live bodies on any of their pilot-less planes or even fly ANY of their live body carrying purposed aircraft (not fighters) with just one pilot on duty at any phase of the flight. Admittedly their threshold and tolerance for risk is much much higher than commercial aviation and their safety record speaks loud about what losses they're willing to accept. But even THEY don't yet even suggest what cathay and airbus are tripping about.

If you're the only one going for a radical idea while none of the others are even showing interest in that idea, there's your clue you're in danger territory.

The dire consequences of this idiocy could not happen to a more deserving management team than cathay's.

[skianyn vannin]

Will Cathay Pathetic still be around in 2025?

[G Merch]

I bet all of you swore never to get on another aircraft once the radio operator was gone. Then the navigator. Then the flight engineer.

[Curry Lamb]

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/828x611/cf716e75_9d49_466d_a24f_b0bc5cbcdbb1_15af438c370d501a956d243 d02ab510e145a2683.jpeg

[ShyTorque]

But they still need two pilots…

[lucille]

Actually, all they need is a failed didi driver to taxi the aircraft out to the holding point and line up. Probably getting his taxi instructions via WeChat.

As for passenger reassurance? Do you seriously think the pax can differentiate between us and say a baggage handler dressed in a pompous uniform with lots of stripes and a large hat?

Self evidently my comments are not in the least serious, merely intended to illustrate the danger of trusting in a status quo.

By way of a knee trembler, I’d like to point out that Garmin have an auto land feature on some high end Piper single engine turboprop. If the sole pilot becomes incapacitated, the passenger presses a large red button. From that point on, the automatics take over and do *everything to land the aircraft at the nearest suitable airport, stop it on the runway and shutdown. I gather it doesn’t even need an ILS equipped runway. The technology is here.

”*Everything” in this context includes deciding which airport and runway, configuring the aircraft, advising ATC and making voice transmissions on appropriate frequencies to alert other traffic.

Pilotless passenger carrying aircraft ? Not a question of if, but rather when.

[stevieboy330]

I tpull it off in a serious emergency.

[Bueno Hombre]

Seems to me that you are an intelligent guy and would have used your same mental processes to analyse , plan and prioritise no matter that you might have had far fewer flying hours.

[Flex88]

Longtimer

No doubt in my mind who's behind this at CX and it's not one of the Swire smurfs, they know so little about airlines and how they "should" operate they simply gamble on everything they can and excel and losing.

You want a good laugh, simply open the "Time Capsule" in the entrance lobby..

That said, the suck-ups pushing for this are the same crowd that screwed up EFB for years and the same ones that pushed for MFF/CCQ on 777/748; and spent zillions in the process.. While some of these smurfs have moved on (one after a door opening incident in flight ), some are still there,, e.g all the top fleet/flying/training/DFO/GMA +++. You know the ones; doing spins on brass poles trying to keep their egos & bonuses at high levels..
It's the same reason CX is very nearly gone.. Management or the lack thereof !!

[Oasis]

I am not sure if this supposed to be implemented on the takeoff approach and landing phases, but the problem with that is that you get procedural drift. You don't fly with others and it is easy for you to make up your own rules.
There is also less accountability for your actions as no-one sees what you are doing, not good...
Flying with others keeps you current in a way that you can't get from reading the books.

[Flex88]

With the boondoggles and get rich quick schemes we & the entire world have watched emanate from the successive Swire carpetbaggers and sycophant CX managers over the last 30 years nothing much shocks me and I have only one worthwhile and correctly descriptive pronoun - WHATEVER :-(

[controlledrest]

Oasis

With AP TCAS and Depress Descent the next step will be single pilot in the cruise with flight following from the ground. The single pilot will be monitored - eye movement for alertness (long haul truck drivers are experimenting with this), probably a video camera. The hard step will be allowing the ground monitor to intervene. Weather avoidance also an issue, especially considering how useless the A50 radar is.

[smogluver]

Flex is onto it, years of no regulation coupled by overzealous dreamboat management. Sadly no union backbone, to at least question this sort of fairytale direction. Going to lead companies like CX to a inevitable big wake-up.

[mngmt mole]

CX has been involved with this project for 3 years. A senior Flt Ops manager did a demonstration flight with Airbus almost 2 years ago. That is when they committed to moving ahead with Airbus on the project. This will happen...and CX will be the "launch" customer. Helps them get rid of those "pesky" pilots.

[FlightoftheNavigator]

Surely they can't be thinking about putting a brand new SO in the seat alone for hours at a time! Flown with plenty that I won't even leave alone for 5 minutes! So it's likely to require at least an FO alone in the seat. Which begs the question, if single pilot cruise relief requires an FO at bare minimum, what will we need SO's for?
But if we don't have SO's, how are they gonna recruit crew? Can't see too many suitably experienced people moving to HK for POS18 (or whatever worse package they are dreaming up right now).

[mr did]

Hahaha

As if any regulator anywhere would put their name on this, especially in the Cannot capital of the world. Airbus and CX can trial whatever they like.

And the latest Flight Inspector CAD have just employed has been fired by Cathay not once (KA), but twice! (CX cadet back in the 90s). Good luck asking him to help get this over the line.

[controlledrest]

mngmt mole

What I heard is the FO was sent to the bunk, management hero sat in jump seat monitoring alertness / error rate etc of the single pilot. The flight was a delivery A50. Bunch of VIPs (Diamond members, press etc in the back - so PAX). Did HKG CAD know about this? A50 is certified 2 pilot, not single pilot. How was it legal?

[MENELAUS]

What you heard is wrong. Yes delivery flight. But no punters hence not a public transport flight. Hence FTL’s etc don’t apply.
And the man in the js was an Airbus guy, and all crew members were rotated through. Just the one at the controls except for the controlled lower airspace at each end.
And that dear friends, is probably the future.

[Flex88]

mngmt mole

"Helps them get rid of those "pesky" pilots", yes it will and on the same scale, paying passengers once this carpetbagger scam gets publicised by "proper" airlines and their "real" unions !!

[MENELAUS]

I think Lufthansa and their Union could safely be described as a proper airline. As is Air France. They’ve all been trialling it. The reason CX is so attractive for these ventures is the trip length; and the fact that the company will bend over backwards to accommodate this stuff.

[dabz]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/600x411/race_to_the_bottom_e94957f1bdf1ba6810e07fdfabb07cf524591680. jpg

[LLLQNH]

If this were to happen especially as soon as 2025 highly highly unlikely, imagine the pay increase that the pilots would have to get. Going from 4 pilots to 2 pilots seems like a massive increase in workload! Will need a lot higher pay and also instead of 84 hours a month I expect to only fly 42, it will be incredibly fatiguing and lonely so will also require a lot more leave and excellent health cover to ensure the utmost physical and mental fitness of crews.

[Rie]

Pay decrease you mean? Terms and conditions can only get worse from here. Rosters will get busier and pay will reduce. The crystal ball guarantees it.

[RAT Management]

I used to look into crystal balls.... But I saw no future in it!

[Angel 8]

I wonder what the RT/PC would look like. Not to mention ALC and CRM renewals.
ALC, would the checker be at home or with you sitting on the floor as there’s only one seat.
No PM sector, also just let the A/P do the hard bits, EFTO, HYD sys faults. FMG failures… I’m sure they’ve covered every thing.
The only hard bit would be answering the silly questions, like how many lights would you see at 200’ or do you need the F/O’s A/P disconnect switch
The concept is good but I think we’re still some 20 - 30 years away when the likes of CX would be a past memory.

[FlyingNun]

In a system like this, you are the PM.
You are not to touch anything unless AI tells you to do so.

[G Merch]

LLLQNH

Ok this can either be a troll comment, or someone who hasn't yet realised how the aviation industry is going.

[tolip1]

Jnr380

But the computer crashes much less than human drivers. The data is to Tesla’s benefit. Bad example.

[Flex88]

30 ✖️ ~ 250 = 7500 😳
Next question ??

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jun/18/thirty-tesla-crashes-linked-to-assisted-driving-system-under-investigation-in-us

[Jnr380]

tolip1

Tesla cars have still crashed in Autopilot mode.

[missingblade]

Oasis

There will be a camera watching the single pilot at all times. Guaranteed. Daily post flight Debriefing via zoom.

[BuzzBox]

Crikey, I'd better learn to stop pickin' my nose when I'm alone and bored...

[Avinthenews]

As a non A350 driver, can someone expand on the auto TCAS and auto rapid descent functions.

On another note the 777X will no longer have a TAC it will have full time beta yaw stability which cannot be failed ie it’ll be like trying to fail the ailerons so a V1 cut will be a non event.

Safer planes = cheaper (less) pilots sadly.

[Less Hair]

And then you have a lightning strike at rotation and suddenly the system is off and no pilot is aware what to expect anymore?

[Rie]

I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to sit in on a number of recruitment sims a few years ago. It was very interesting to watch. People would put the wrong rudder in, turn the wrong way, even watched something very similar to the Fedex Olympic trail departure. Will computers make it safer? Yes but what happens when the computer gets covid?

[Veruka Salt]

Avinthenews

Av, both the 330 & 350 have auto TCAS. It literally just flies the RA.

Auto Emerg. Descent on the 350, simple version: press AED button, pull speedbrake. If you don’t respond to a high cab. altitude (unconscious etc), a countdown timer starts then it does it for you. Descends at VMO-5 to 40nm Grid Mora corrected for temp/isa, turns right to intcpt a ~ 3nm offset, squawks 7700, points TCAS below. Interrupts the whole thing for TCAS if necessary. Works a treat.

Both types have yaw rate control for EFATO, not TAC. 350 also applies aileron deflection on operating side to control yaw.

[FMS82]

Less Hair

But how is that different from a lightning strike on any other FBW aircraft. The time that a pilot's hand was mechanically tied directly to control surfaces was left behind at some point in the 80's. And it's been proven very safe.

Adding an entirely predictable profile (engine out at V1) to the existing suite of FBW trickery (alpha floors, turbulence damping, ailerons pretending they're flaps....) is going to improve flight safety. Auto go arounds are next, and they will be mandated by the airlines as human performance on those is appalling.

[Oasis]

Auto goaround would probably result in fewer attempts to ‘push’ the landing, as some don’t seem to plan to go-around.
Would also be helped by actually quickly briefing the go-around, but that’s another issue..

[Less Hair]

The aircraft decides and not the pilots?

[lucille]

Interesting thread evolution… looks like the inevitability of a pilotless passenger aircraft is dawning on upon us. The journey towards that goal will begin with reducing numbers of crew on the aircraft and the de-skilling of the profession.

I recall the utter bliss when CPDLC first arrived, no more bloody HF and then it occurred to me that there was no reason why the data needed to go through me to be activated. That, to me, spelled the beginning of the end of flying as a profession. Since then every subsequent improvement in technology has made the pilot ever more more redundant. Along the way safety has improved by orders of magnitude.

Totally unmanned is still a fair way off, but nonetheless inevitable.

[LongTimeInCX]

Oasis

For some, that could be a novel concept.
There was a period spanning two months, where I did 4 go-arounds.

Two were weather related, and prior to the approach, I briefed and went through what was likely to happen, including both of us practicing the mouth music. Strangely, both of those two were seamless and remarkably unexciting.

Conversely, on one of the other 4 go-arounds in question, a very unexpected one, one of us managed to say the other persons words, which naturally meant the respondent then replied also with the other persons words. Other aspects were missed and whilst it was never unsafe, it was embarrassingly shambolic.
Hence my subsequent predilection for having a practice of the mouth music on subsequent flights where a GA was likely.

As for reduced or zero crew, we all reluctantly know it’s heading that way, but public acceptance, or not, will be the key.

[Sqwak7700]

Getting the public and regulators to go along with single, or no human pilot up front would be extremely difficult. It would require a massive culture change, only brought about by a significant event which would require such a drastic change.

It would take something like a large number of pilots losing their medical due to some novel disease, or maybe the consequences of its rushed experimental pharmaceutical treatment.

Such a catastrophe would be substantial enough to require a massive shift in thinking about autonomous aircraft in the interest of maintaining air services. People are more accepting of sub-optimal choices when they’ve been scared and pressured into them.

So I doubt something like that would ever happen. The aircraft/airline industry is very good at not relying on single-point-of-failure systems, always maintaining alternate options to avoid catastrophic failures. Regulators maintain a very close watch over them, facilitated by their massive and ever growing budgets.

I believe PolitiFact did a check on the autonomous cockpit story, and it labeled it as “Lier lier, pants on fire”. So nothing to see really.

[Oasis]

Same here, the go-arounds I’ve seen went well, but were briefed on approach as it looked like there was a high likelihood of them occurring.

I was told when I joined the airline that every approach was a missed approach.
old ex TAA instructor told me that.

words to live by

[Less Hair]

Only if the tech level is good enough for fully automated airliners we can introduce this strange mixture of humans and machines in decision making.
We will end up with "drone operators" just happening to sit on board instead of in a ground station not with pilots. It won't help flight safety.

[Asturias56]

"Getting the public and regulators to go along with single, or no human pilot up front would be extremely difficult."

The regulators maybe - the public? Offer them US$ 100 cheaper flights and you'd be killed in the rush. THEY DON'T CARE

[Oasis]

Trains still have drivers, ships still have Captains, arguably easier to replace as it is a 2-d operation.
Single pilot in cruise will be workable at this time and the near future, the amount of infrastructure change required for a pilot-less cockpit will not be cost efficient for a long time.

[Avinthenews]

They are certainly well on the way to reducing pilot numbers.

A350 Auto takeoff - while some pilot actions are still required you could easily be in a single pilot PF/PM role

https://youtu.be/uZR8jc_x_ds

[highflyer40]

Jnr380

Of course they have. And always will. The point is they crash less than human driven cars.

Just like autonomous planes (not for 40-60 years most likely) there will be crashes. But again the rate will be much less than planes flown by human pilots.

The technology isn’t quite there yet but it is getting close.

[vlieger]

You should look at some statistics of how often advanced military drones crash. Now imagine the public outcry after just one accident involving passengers in a giant drone.

We all know this is the bean counters' wet dream but anyone involved in commercial aviation on the pointy side of things knows this simply ain't happening in the next 20-30 years. Personally, I don't see the technology ever reaching a point where you can dispense with both human pilots. Yes, they got rid of the engineer and navigator, but there are certain hard limits beyond this which will prove very stubborn. Single pilot in the cruise, sure, probably at some point. Anything more than that, I just can't see it happening.

[SaulGoodman]

highflyer40

UAV’s crash all the time. Just doesn’t make the news.

I’m on cargo now. Might get lonely… can I bring my girlfriend(s)?
#fakeairtaxi

[zac21]

[Trains still have drivers,]

Not at all, in Western Australia the iron ore trains are controlled by an operator in the city of Perth, so they are driverless !

[Flex88]

It's humans that can opine or even infer and ridiculous "equivalence" retort as above that will be the EXACT cause of the decline and demise of the human species... OMG !

[Zeta_Reticuli]

It is ridiculous to compare the two. I can assure everyone that even though most of the iron ore mines in the Pilbara region have automated Haul trucks, Water carts, Drill rigs and trains. They always suffer data and comms link failures. This is a daily occurence and sometimes can go on for hours. This is after spending hundreds of millions on infrastructure to automate all this equipment from operations centres in Perth. If this is anything to go by, airliners will not be having single pilot operations for a long time as the constant failures are relentless

[LongTimeInCX]

zac21

Because.....
1) the operation is relatively simple, and more importantly,
2) if it hits a cow and derails, you spill some ore - hardly headline news.

But with planes, when Hal2.0 flies into a monster CB that snaps a wing, or through a flock of geese that an old fashioned pilot could see a mile off, and both engines die, ....shortly followed by 300 pax, then it won’t be pilotless cockpit at fault in the headlines, it’ll be “we need better technology to cater for the unknown and unseen”.
It’s gonna be a biblical :mad: and there’s no way I’m stepping down the airbridges into a drone programmed by my kids spotty nerdy mates!

[highflyer40]

I’d like to see the sky gods on here make it out of that one. Bad example!

[Near Miss]

Computers are great and everything. They make our lives, and our jobs, easier. The problem with computers is they're only as great as their programming and the inputs they receive.
The A50 radar is rubbish, so what will the aircraft do when it fails to detect the CB? Or will they have to change the sensitivity and programme it to divert 50nm around every single return? Bouncing along the tops. Will it try for a non-standard level to get above it?
Unreliable airspeed on departure? Glideslope interference on short final? Windshear on either? All things that I've had. Plus an even more worrying indication of fire in both engines, smoke in both cargo areas, the avionics bay, the lavatory, and everywhere else that was connected to a misbehaving computer that was running some ground test while in flight. What would a computer do with those inputs? And we all know of the errors each software update brings.
Do pilots make mistakes that result in a crash and a loss of life? Yes unfortunately. We are only human. But we're still better than a machine built and programmed by humans.

[Less Hair]

Software including AI is programmed by humans and needs to predict and assume what is to be dealt with later on before while practically having to manage the unexpected. If you control some expendable drone this is different from a plane load of passengers. What this is leading to is neither a fully automated neither proven human redundant setup.

[Oasis]

Eventually we’ll get there, but not in a long long long time, far beyond the careers of the posters on this forum.

As one computer does not know when it is wrong, essentially you have to have several computer AI programs running at the same time, cross checking each other and taking out the odd one out.
these programs would have to be programmed by completely different teams/companies.
On the ground it gets interesting too with camera systems identifying threats on taxiways.
(dogs in India, etc, can I pass that aircraft without touching the tail, is it icy?)
the scope of such a project is so massive and the required infrastructure is so vast that for a long time it will be far cheaper and safer to keep a human in charge.

[j8naid]

Yep, True. I hope our generation doesn't see this. I wish I could go back to the 4 engine jet era!

[bufe01]

I’d love to see a bunch of drones taxing in PVG !

[Handsanitser]

I feel like the majority of post have been missing a key issue.

we are not talking about fully automated AI pilotless aircraft. They are simply reducing one pilot in a low work load environment.

the subject of weather deviation is none event as there will still be one pilot there to make the decision plus the ground based pilot.

the focus should what happens when the one pilot is away for 20mins after demolishing the first class steak and unfortunately the a50 is well equipped to handle all situations that can arise.

like it or not, single pilot cruise is coming.

[Oasis]

yes that’s coming, I was talking about fully automated.

[Less Hair]

The low work environment can change within a second. Then you end up with one person having to deal with a situation that needs at least two. One flying and one to see what is going on and what to do next. And the one guy left can collapse or be hit by cockpit window shrapnel or similar and be knocked out of duty as well anytime.
It is not responsible to plan like this.

[lucille]

Imagine if you will, three generations of aircraft forward in time. The aircraft will be designed to cope with every single emergency. Chap in the front will be there to polish his four bars and whistle to himself.

No question whatsoever that today’s aircraft are neither capable nor safe without the presence of two chaps up front debating erudite tax laws or investment strategies.

[FlyingNun]

Chaps? Chaps?

[Oasis]

ok so how many years are we talking for 3 generations ahead?

[stevieboy330]

CX admit they "burning" $250,000,000 HKD a week ! Trading below $7 bucks with no end in sight, I'd say Single Pilot ops is the last thing they need to be talking about.

[Bueno Hombre]

Never waste a good crisis.

[Oasis]

But at least there's money for gender neutral bathrooms in Cathay City.

[From a distance]

Being a cisgender binary male I can’t wait to mark my territory in those bathrooms.

[Flex88]

stevieboy330

Please folks stop kidding yourselves. CX will not be in business to see this fantasy come to fruition. They’re being run out of business sure as :mad: attracts flies. If you say “ oh no its the China Virus which occurred naturally” you need therapy plus a different News channel package on your cable tv ( which likely you will no longer be able to afford if you’re in HK) 🧐 CX, Merlin and the rest of the pompous Princelings have truly been #Shanghaied!

[parabellum]

Two points not yet mentioned.
Terrorist attack and insurance cover.

A dedicated, trained and suicidal terrorist unit taking over or disabling an en route control facility, with jamming equipment powerful enough to disable alternative control methods, even in a limited area, cannot be discounted now or until terrorism has ceased.

Right now the prospect of the aviation insurance market giving cover for hulls, passenger liability and third party liability are zero. A few maverick underwriters might be prepared to take a small share but none of the leading syndicates or companies would touch it. Imagine if two 300 seat aircraft either deliberately, as a result of terrorist action or a failure of equipment, were to collide overhead a crowded city centre and crash to the ground, the final bill would run to billions and the aviation insurance market would suspend all airline insurance, nothing would move.