Training for a Licence

[Bridgestone17]

Why are people still training for Professional Pilots Licences right now? With the drastic reduction in demand for air travel and hundreds of aircraft parked up along with redundant/furloughed Pilots why?
What is going to happen to all those crews that have been laid off and why do you think that airlines would hire you over experienced crews?

[Bealzebub]

I guess for the same reason people buy Bitcoin and do other things that appear to buck the trend. It is a gamble that might pay off?

Truth is nobody knows what’s going to happen so you pay your money and roll the dice. After the Spanish Flu pandemic there followed a decade of inflation and rapid growth before 1929 brought that to a screeching and devastating halt!

There is a lot of quality experience looking for work at the moment, and if recruiting airlines can pick up Ferraris and Rolls Royces (more padding) for the price of a Fiat Uno, then why won’t they?

[Chief Willy]

The reason is simple. Confirmation bias by wannabes who have an emotional want to fly and cannot accept the cold hard facts staring them in the face: The party is well and truly over.

Any future pilot shortage in Asia will not help us in Europe 1 iota. Locals only from now on over there. Even the middle east 3 have shed expats by the bucket load over the past year. The US market is for Americans with FAA ratings so any retirement bulge there wont affect us either.

As for future growth in Europe? Unless aircraft ditch fossil fuels politicians will heavily stamp
down on any growth. Zoom/Teams has disrupted the industry and about 50% of business travel has been lost, permanently. The pilot workforce in Europe is very young so there is no looming retirement wave here. In summary, expect very few jobs in Europe over the next few years.

Those starting their training now in Europe are gambling £100k on a high-stakes, high-risk game with a very low probability of success. Patience is key, waiting it out a couple of years to see what happens would be my advice to any wannabes.

[B2N2]

People start training because they SHOULD start training in a lull and not during a peak.
Your time from Start to competitive for First Job can be anywhere from 2-7 years depending on a number of factors such as integrated vs modular and loan vs self funded.
Look at the hiring requirements of the popular entry level airlines in Europe.
If you go self funded modular you can do one rating/license a year and be done in 4-5 years.
Even integrated you’re looking at 18-24 months.
Nobody and I mean nobody can truly predict what the market will be in 2-5 years.
It will take 12-24 months for air travel to normalize. Despite an economic recovery some airlines may not recover.
24 months before we know the status of the industry.
Save to say it won’t be worse then it is now.
Flight training is always a gamble, today is not a better or worse time to start.
Go for it, just be smart financially.

[Chief Willy]

Truly dreadful advice in my opinion. This bizarre myth that training in a down-turn is “the best time” is total unsubstantiated rubbish. There is zero evidence to support that notion. Zero.

You need luck and timing in this industry, one of those you can control. You are correct that no-one can predict the situation in 2-5 years time, so why rush into it know when we know it is literally the worst time for aviation since the advent of flight?

[B2N2]

*Facepalm*

Did you even read what I posted?
At a minimum you’re at two years.
By the time you’re eligible for your first job you may have gone through a subsequent downtown and uptick.
From the EasyJet website:

Non Type Rated Co Pilots: minimum 1000 flying hours with 500 hours on aircraft over 10T MTOW

So now go backwards:
500 hrs > 10T 1-1.5 years
250 hrs < 10T 1 year
250 hrs CPL training and ATPL exams 2 years
Looking for and applying for jobs 12 months

Thats 5-5.5 years and you’re telling me you shouldn’t start NOW?
You’re entitled to your opinion as am I.
You need to be ready for the next hiring boom and not be at the tail end of one.
Getting experience takes time and how long does it take to fly 1000hrs?
Pretty much exactly 1000hrs.....:suspect:

[B2N2]

I don’t make this stuff up you know....
In Economics 101 this is called the Pork Cycle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle

[VariablePitchP]

B2N2

Where do you propose our freshly minted pilot out of training gets the 800 odd hours to get them to 1000, let alone the 500 on a real aircraft required?

Know one knows how long it will be until you can get a job fresh out of training. Anyone starting something like an integrated course is gambling the house that it’s going to be in a couple of years. No chance.

[B2N2]

VariablePitchP

So my example was even optimistic.
0-CPL 2 years
250-300 hrs SE banner towing amd glider towing and all sorts of odd flying jobs 3 years
500 hrs KingAir 2 years
Cumulative time unemployed and looking for a job 2 years
9 years total, doesn’t change the fact that every single supply/demand chain is subject to basic economic principles.
It took me 3 years from 0-CPL then 5 years prior to my first paid job flying.
Thats why I recommend pay as you go modular.
Do NOT get a 100k loan and go integrated.

[Contact Approach]

B2N2

Sorry to hit you with some hard facts but you e got BA 747 captains banner towing or flying king airs just now. Your hours will only get you as far as you can afford for sometime to come. You’ll finish with 200 hours and nothing much will happen after that.

Don’t be so naive.

[B2N2]

Again.....*sigh*
It will already take you 2 years to get your CPL + 14 exams.
Pointing to the situation today to argue you can’t get a SE flying job in 2 years from now is not an honest argument.

[Contact Approach]

You reckon in two years over 15000 pilots will be re-employed!? Put the lotto on for me my man!

[harveyst]

I’ve not posted on here for ages, but look regularly.
Can I ask where on Earth these magical banner towing jobs are or the ‘crop dusting’ ones? (Asking for a friend)

[OvertHawk]

Contact Approach

And when the LoCo's start recruiting FO's again are they going to be looking for a Legacy Captain from another airline or a newbie they can mould in their own image?

[Contact Approach]

Newbies aren’t Captains.........

[Chief Willy]

@B2: You’re right about not going integrated now. That would be an insane decision. £100k is a lot of money to spend to get a job driving an Asda truck.

If you were to start today going modular, keeping your current job, and going as slow as possible without running up any debt would be the only option worth even considering.

There are very few GA jobs in Europe compared to the USA so hour-building in GA is not as realistic as prospect as you make it sound.

[Central Scrutinizer]

No. Your advice is truly dreadful in my opinion.

The best time to train is not in a market low or a market high. The best time to become a pilot is when one CAN become a pilot. PERIOD.

The same applies to buying a house in which one intends to live, or any other form of legitimate INVESTMENT.

Nobody should waste their precious time in life trying to time anything. Obviously we can all tell IN HINDSIGHT which would have been the best decision at the time. We'd all be rich. So let's all please stop saying obvious but useless statements of fact.

[Bridgestone17]

OK so here is another problem. What if you were on a "tagged" scheme with a large Integrated training provider and during the course, the pandemic occurred. All payments have been made to the Training Provider in full and they have continued training their customer up to CPL/IR skills test level but want to carry on training for the Type Rating. Would you do this Type Rating or not? What advice can you offer. BTW this is not me!! I am retired thank goodness and if I had children would steer them toward a different career right now.

[ShyTorque]

harveyst

Well they certainly aren’t in the U.K., which of course is the OP’s country of residence....

Seems to me this is a big gamble, similar to guessing which stocks and shares one should invest in. Thankfully I bought low, very low.

(My offspring have never wanted to fly up front. As I’ve always said, the really clever ones are sitting in the back seats).

[Dreamiator]

B2N2

Mate you’re delusional and your advise is terrible. Perhaps you have a vested interest in a flight school, because that’s the only possible reason someone would recommend Aviation as a career in these times.

Reality of the situation is that this lull will take years to recover and as it has been pointed before, there is a huge abundance of qualified (type rated) and heavily experienced pilots whom are stacking shelves at supermarkets, the “lucky” ones found jobs in GA. The same jobs a budding 200hr CPL pilot would be planning to get after finishing flight school.

If a fresh CPL now tries to go out in the real world and get a job in GA to build hours they’ll quickly find that there are virtually no vacant flying jobs out there. Even the smallest operators are inundated with hundreds of applications with experience surpassing their minimums ten folds! As a result, these fresh pilots will fall out of recency and any chance of a flying job will get further and further away. That person will likely fall into depression, rely on welfare and his/her life will fall into remorse and regret.

Seriously people stop telling young kids that Aviation is a viable career option because it simply isn’t. Young kids should go to university and invest in a real career with solid prospects and if they still want to fly for a living then they’ll be in a much better place later on in their lives should another aviation downturn (inevitably) happen. I strongly believe that Aviation career needs a plan B. Trust me no one want to drive a truck or clean houses on minimum wage when they’re 50 because they’ve been furloughed!!

I know it sounds all doom and gloom but as a pilot community I think we have to try and paint an accurate picture free of the lies and manipulation that flight schools thrive upon.

[pug]

Agreed, sort of. However, the posts on here during the last financial crash of 07-09 deterred me from pursuing a flying career at that time, and focussing on a ‘backup’. Friends of mine were not put off and are enjoying careers in flying - albeit a couple are on furlough currently - and are much further ahead than I am now. I suspect they didn’t read PPrune.

Ive done the uni and got into aviation in other areas of the industry, and am now qualified to fly for a living. However my delay in training due to my other career has meant I’ve finished at quite possibly the worst time in aviation history, when I was getting towards the end newly qualified low houred pilots had probably never had it so good..

If I had a crystal ball I’d put money on the lottery, but as I don’t I think the argument for timing it right has substance. There is no doubt this will have a lasting impact on the industry, but regrow it will.

I do fear I have all of my eggs in the aviation basket, but should the worst happen I do also have some pretty solid transferable skills that I may not have developed had I gone to Oxford and straight into Ryaneasybe. Swings and roundabouts but I do regret not ‘timing it right’ and taking a bigger risk.

Good luck all.

[Bealzebub]

Every few months I get a marketing postcard from our local Estate agent (Realtor) telling me that now is an excellent time to buy or sell....or indeed both! For decades now they have been sending some version of this card. I am always amused at the slant they put on any financial disaster or bubble such that it attempts to bring business through the door. Indeed I admire their efforts to keep paying the bills and providing a livelihood for their employees. The card goes in the bin (trash) but I honestly like to believe that their optimism is rewarded.

I’m not sure why people think that flying schools should be better guardians of morality when they also have bills to pay and mouths to feed? That notwithstanding, who am I to say they are wrong? The idea that there are hordes of gullible “wannabes” and presumably their equally gullible parents, all tripping over themselves to part with their hard earned fortunes with little more knowledge than the optimism of a sales pitch seems largely unlikely. Pods of destitute parents living under an overpass with their belongings scrunched into the rusty basket of an old supermarket trolley are still a very rare sight!

I’m presuming that a successful career as a Quantity surveyor or a Social influencer (whatever that is?) is probably much more stable and rewarding in the long run and in the grand scheme of things, but....honestly.... who ever grew up wanting to be one of those? Airline pilot has much more cachet and glamour. The shiny stripes, the sharp uniform, hat worn at a jaunty angle, the cool sunshades, the admiring glances and perceived envy as your job whisks you off to Fiji for a week on the beach with your young and equally glamorous crew hanging on your every utterance and laughing at your boundless wit and humour. I mean, come on! What is there not to like? All it takes is some dosh and a few months of “whenever you feel like it” training at Puddlewick-in-the-Marsh flying club (Now International Airline Academy.) 200 hours and a fresh blue licence and....boom!...Sully’s your uncle! and soon the estate agents postcards will be drowned on the doormat by vanilla enveloped interview offers from airlines wondering where you have been all this time? Even if that doesn’t happen straight away, you will still be the envy of your mates who are training to be Quantity surveyors and Social influencers! Certainly Aunty Gladys and your grandparents will have proudly told all of their friends.

Now of course, nobody is going to own up to any of this. The only people you ever find here have been drawn to their love of the sky and their passion for flight since they first looked up from their prams.Truth be told, there is nothing wrong with dreams. There is nothing wrong with wasting your money (or somebody else’s) on those dreams. There is nothing wrong with listening to advice and doing whatever you want. A lot of folk (myself included) come on here and offer advice or tales from our own particular optic. That advice ranges from awful to excellent and everywhere in between. Use it, filter it, ignore it! It’s nothing more than just another resource.

I wish every flight school only the best. That comes from being good at what they do and being good as a business. I’ve seen a lot of “good at what they do” businesses fall by the wayside for much the same reasons as other businesses do. They fail to sustain a profit! So if it was my business I would market with every hyperbole at my disposal and truly hope that the future lived up to that hyperbole. Car manufacturers do it. Aircraft manufacturers do it. Certainly Estate agents do it! All of those industries sell products at costs that puts flight training into the shade! So, stop picking on flight schools! If someone wants to buy a dream then someone should be selling it. I’ve bought lots of dreams (mainly with 4 wheels!) Many of them truly didn’t live up to hyperbole of the brochure, but.......Cest la vie!

[Bloated Stomach]

1. People who are advising young fresh blood into flight training during the biggest World pandemic in recent history are delusional.

2. There are thousands of experienced unemployed and furloughed pilots in Europe alone. They will be hired first. Period.

3. The senior leaders in aviation have made it clear that the good times are over and changes will need to be made.

4. Do not trust the flight schools. They are a business (on a ticking time bomb) and they need cash flow to survive. As a business with a seriously low influx of new blood, they will say anything to get you through the door. As I speak, a large French school has just gone bust. They have been training pilots for decades. Time to wake up and get in touch with reality.

5. You do not start training in a downturn. That is the most ridiculous statement I have ever read. Just like you do not invest in a recession. No one truly knows where the bottom is and it could get worse before it gets better.

6. Make sure you have a backup career.

7. Find a wife or girlfriend outside of aviation so when you're facedown in regret, he or she can support you. The industry faces a downturn every 10 years.

8. The airlines are not your friend. They are actually the opposite. They have an agenda to make money and have no loyalty to you regardless of how senior you are. Seniority means nothing if it doesn't suit the airline.

9. Do not pay for a type rating. A prostitute would not pay a client to better her mouth skills. Don't be worse than prostitutes.
​​​​​​
10. There are no guarantees in life. Be ready to spend huge amounts on any investment in life and see no return.
​​​​

[Driver airframe]

An interesting thread . Having been employed for near on 40 years in the forward facing lounge a few observations . History repeats itself , Pilots retire , the ones with the age and skill set as opposed to experience only get snapped up by the big operators . This feeds done the ladder to GA where many are quite happy . Ripples are created when operators go bust but dont last for ever . They never have . If its what you want a downturn is the ideal time to get started . Sure its a gamble , like life itself . But the odds are good if you have the natural skills which make the job money for old rope .

[Chief Willy]

Comparisons to previous recessions/9-11 are not relevant. This is about 100 times worse, and crucially misses the main point. The paradigm has changed, aviation is no longer really required (thanks to Zoom etc) and is now actively discouraged by most governments due to carbon emissions. Personally I genuinely think 2019 will be seen as peak aviation in Europe.