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Training for a Licence

Old 29th Apr 2021, 16:04
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Training for a Licence

Why are people still training for Professional Pilots Licences right now? With the drastic reduction in demand for air travel and hundreds of aircraft parked up along with redundant/furloughed Pilots why?
What is going to happen to all those crews that have been laid off and why do you think that airlines would hire you over experienced crews?
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 16:30
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I guess for the same reason people buy Bitcoin and do other things that appear to buck the trend. It is a gamble that might pay off?

Truth is nobody knows what’s going to happen so you pay your money and roll the dice. After the Spanish Flu pandemic there followed a decade of inflation and rapid growth before 1929 brought that to a screeching and devastating halt!

There is a lot of quality experience looking for work at the moment, and if recruiting airlines can pick up Ferraris and Rolls Royces (more padding) for the price of a Fiat Uno, then why won’t they?
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 17:58
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The reason is simple. Confirmation bias by wannabes who have an emotional want to fly and cannot accept the cold hard facts staring them in the face: The party is well and truly over.

Any future pilot shortage in Asia will not help us in Europe 1 iota. Locals only from now on over there. Even the middle east 3 have shed expats by the bucket load over the past year. The US market is for Americans with FAA ratings so any retirement bulge there wont affect us either.

As for future growth in Europe? Unless aircraft ditch fossil fuels politicians will heavily stamp
down on any growth. Zoom/Teams has disrupted the industry and about 50% of business travel has been lost, permanently. The pilot workforce in Europe is very young so there is no looming retirement wave here. In summary, expect very few jobs in Europe over the next few years.

Those starting their training now in Europe are gambling £100k on a high-stakes, high-risk game with a very low probability of success. Patience is key, waiting it out a couple of years to see what happens would be my advice to any wannabes.

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Old 29th Apr 2021, 18:48
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People start training because they SHOULD start training in a lull and not during a peak.
Your time from Start to competitive for First Job can be anywhere from 2-7 years depending on a number of factors such as integrated vs modular and loan vs self funded.
Look at the hiring requirements of the popular entry level airlines in Europe.
If you go self funded modular you can do one rating/license a year and be done in 4-5 years.
Even integrated you’re looking at 18-24 months.
Nobody and I mean nobody can truly predict what the market will be in 2-5 years.
It will take 12-24 months for air travel to normalize. Despite an economic recovery some airlines may not recover.
24 months before we know the status of the industry.
Save to say it won’t be worse then it is now.
Flight training is always a gamble, today is not a better or worse time to start.
Go for it, just be smart financially.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 19:01
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Truly dreadful advice in my opinion. This bizarre myth that training in a down-turn is “the best time” is total unsubstantiated rubbish. There is zero evidence to support that notion. Zero.

You need luck and timing in this industry, one of those you can control. You are correct that no-one can predict the situation in 2-5 years time, so why rush into it know when we know it is literally the worst time for aviation since the advent of flight?
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 19:27
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*Facepalm*

Did you even read what I posted?
At a minimum you’re at two years.
By the time you’re eligible for your first job you may have gone through a subsequent downtown and uptick.
From the EasyJet website:

Non Type Rated Co Pilots: minimum 1000 flying hours with 500 hours on aircraft over 10T MTOW
So now go backwards:
500 hrs > 10T 1-1.5 years
250 hrs < 10T 1 year
250 hrs CPL training and ATPL exams 2 years
Looking for and applying for jobs 12 months

Thats 5-5.5 years and you’re telling me you shouldn’t start NOW?
You’re entitled to your opinion as am I.
You need to be ready for the next hiring boom and not be at the tail end of one.
Getting experience takes time and how long does it take to fly 1000hrs?
Pretty much exactly 1000hrs.....
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 19:36
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I don’t make this stuff up you know....
In Economics 101 this is called the Pork Cycle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 19:36
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B2N2

Where do you propose our freshly minted pilot out of training gets the 800 odd hours to get them to 1000, let alone the 500 on a real aircraft required?

Know one knows how long it will be until you can get a job fresh out of training. Anyone starting something like an integrated course is gambling the house that it’s going to be in a couple of years. No chance.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 19:42
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VariablePitchP

So my example was even optimistic.
0-CPL 2 years
250-300 hrs SE banner towing amd glider towing and all sorts of odd flying jobs 3 years
500 hrs KingAir 2 years
Cumulative time unemployed and looking for a job 2 years
9 years total, doesn’t change the fact that every single supply/demand chain is subject to basic economic principles.
It took me 3 years from 0-CPL then 5 years prior to my first paid job flying.
Thats why I recommend pay as you go modular.
Do NOT get a 100k loan and go integrated.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 20:04
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B2N2

Sorry to hit you with some hard facts but you e got BA 747 captains banner towing or flying king airs just now. Your hours will only get you as far as you can afford for sometime to come. You’ll finish with 200 hours and nothing much will happen after that.

Don’t be so naive.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 20:07
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Again.....*sigh*
It will already take you 2 years to get your CPL + 14 exams.
Pointing to the situation today to argue you can’t get a SE flying job in 2 years from now is not an honest argument.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 20:43
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You reckon in two years over 15000 pilots will be re-employed!? Put the lotto on for me my man!
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 21:01
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I’ve not posted on here for ages, but look regularly.
Can I ask where on Earth these magical banner towing jobs are or the ‘crop dusting’ ones? (Asking for a friend)
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 21:05
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Contact Approach

And when the LoCo's start recruiting FO's again are they going to be looking for a Legacy Captain from another airline or a newbie they can mould in their own image?
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 21:22
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Newbies aren’t Captains.........
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 21:26
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@B2: You’re right about not going integrated now. That would be an insane decision. £100k is a lot of money to spend to get a job driving an Asda truck.

If you were to start today going modular, keeping your current job, and going as slow as possible without running up any debt would be the only option worth even considering.

There are very few GA jobs in Europe compared to the USA so hour-building in GA is not as realistic as prospect as you make it sound.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 22:52
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No. Your advice is truly dreadful in my opinion.

The best time to train is not in a market low or a market high. The best time to become a pilot is when one CAN become a pilot. PERIOD.

The same applies to buying a house in which one intends to live, or any other form of legitimate INVESTMENT.

Nobody should waste their precious time in life trying to time anything. Obviously we can all tell IN HINDSIGHT which would have been the best decision at the time. We'd all be rich. So let's all please stop saying obvious but useless statements of fact.

Last edited by Central Scrutinizer; 30th Apr 2021 at 01:18.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 08:00
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OK so here is another problem. What if you were on a "tagged" scheme with a large Integrated training provider and during the course, the pandemic occurred. All payments have been made to the Training Provider in full and they have continued training their customer up to CPL/IR skills test level but want to carry on training for the Type Rating. Would you do this Type Rating or not? What advice can you offer. BTW this is not me!! I am retired thank goodness and if I had children would steer them toward a different career right now.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 08:07
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harveyst

Well they certainly aren’t in the U.K., which of course is the OP’s country of residence....

Seems to me this is a big gamble, similar to guessing which stocks and shares one should invest in. Thankfully I bought low, very low.

(My offspring have never wanted to fly up front. As I’ve always said, the really clever ones are sitting in the back seats).
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 09:36
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Even the UK regulator was urging people not to throw their money down the drain on the flying dream recently. Crazy to start paying huge sums of money to get into an industry that faces huge challenges in the next few years from the pandemic restrictions itself, the economic implications from it, the changing way of businesses working and the climate threat.

It's a job that attracts the wealthy and the dreamers though...what other industry cooks up schemes where people pay to do the job for a company?

My linkedin stream is full of the cadets congratulating themselves on signing Ryanair contracts to pay for their own 737 type-rating with no job at the end of it. Even in a travel market on its knees, Ryanair have somehow made them feel as if they have just secured employment with the airline when in actual fact they've just been sold a type-rating. Nuts.
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