What is the future for the Jetstar B787 fleet

[B772]

Any news of the plans for the Jetstar B787 fleet. When do the A321NEOLR's start to arrive ?

[Ragnor]

There is talk of using them on domestic routes and maybe trans-con if those plans go ahead in March to get crews current. I don’t think the 78 is dead yet. If by the off chance international opens up towards the end of 2021 they will be very much needed.

[Iron Bar]

There appears to be a plan for at least some of the 787 to go to Alice Springs.

[1A_Please]

If there were a market for them, they'd have been sold already. As iit is, there is virtually no market for brand-new 788s let alone earlier builds so it is likely they will remain the the QF fleet though will probably spend a year or so in the desert before any attempt to reactivate them. I doubt they will fly for JQ again but think they may find a place in the mainline fleet as replacements for the oldest A332s on domestic routes. I doubt if QF will use them on international routes which means a recliner J class product remains acceptable making the transition to mainline even easier.

[PoppaJo]

3 up for sale previously however the chances of getting the price they wanted now is zero.

Bali will be a boom market once the world reopens and that will require considerable capacity to get it moving for a while.

[Kickstarter]

2021 & 2022 will surely be the years of LCCs. Can see Jetstar doing more long haul (no QF A380s & no VA A330s/B777s)

[Ragnor]

JQ will hold on to the 78 they will need them more than ever when Bali and other leisure destinations open late 2021-2022. As said on Friday they’re looking to use them domestically I get crew current as March is fast approaching and the cost to get crews going again will be far more expensive.

[Wingspar]

Bali residents could be among the first to receive the Chinese drug, in order to make the island "a green zone at the start of next year", according to China's state-owned Xinhua news agency.

'Nothing comes for free': China rolls out trial vaccines to developing world.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-08/indonesia-bali-coronavirus-covid-sinovac-china-vaccine-diplomacy/12958762

[Arthur D]

New rumour.... they are going to Network.

You heard it here first :O

[Ragnor]

Bali the perfect spot for the Chinese to set up their military personnel for when the attack comes.

[B772]

Ragnor. I agree. China does not need our coal but needs our iron ore to make aircraft carriers and submarines. The Chinese navy (PLAN) currently has 67 more ships than the US. The number of ships under construction is greater than the size of the RAN.

[krismiler]

With Jetstar planning to operate more flights in March next year then they did in March 2019, there could be a case for keeping a few B787s in the domestic network to relieve pressure on the A320 fleet and maintain crew currency. However, the recent spike in COVID cases in North Sydney could lead to another lockdown as the state governments will have an eye on the situation in Europe and want to avoid another series of outbreaks.

It all depends on the vaccine, Australia doesn't have the provision for emergency approval so it will be next month before the roll out and another few months before sufficient numbers of people have received their dose before the borders can safely be opened.

[novice110]

The current vaccines are effective at stopping COVID (the disease). I haven't seen anything that suggests they will stop transmission (the virus).

So how are the borders going to be safely opened any time next year ? Case numbers will still be there, just less deaths eventually.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

Radio check on 121.5???


Nothing heard.


Shamefull.


MCD

[krismiler]

So how are the borders going to be safely opened any time next year ? Case numbers will still be there, just less deaths eventually.

Once enough of the population is vaccinated, it won't matter if a COVID case arrives as he won't be passing it on. Likewise, if an Australian goes overseas he shouldn't get sick. There will be a divide between rich countries which get the vaccine early and can return to relative normality, and poorer countries which may wait for years for a sizeable percentage of the population to be protected.

The expected travel bubbles haven't really worked, so a vaccine is the best hope.

[aviation_enthus]

The current vaccines are effective at stopping COVID (the disease). I haven't seen anything that suggests they will stop transmission (the virus).

So how are the borders going to be safely opened any time next year ? Case numbers will still be there, just less deaths eventually.

In Australia at least, I find it highly doubtful the border will open in 2021. Even with a large number of people vaccinated, the political reality in Australia can’t even accept a small outbreak (less than 30). Just look at the drama of SA recently and the current NSW one.

Until it is definitively proven that the virus can’t be brought in to Australia, expect the government to drag its heels as long as possible.

[ANstar]

With Jetstar planning to operate more flights in March next year then they did in March 2019, there could be a case for keeping a few B787s in the domestic network to relieve pressure on the A320 fleet and maintain crew currency. .

Given most of the cabin crew are overseas based I wonder if it is financially viable to run the 787s? You would need to train the cabin crew etc and would likely cause industrial issues down the track when you try and pull the endorsement off them.

[ManillaChillaDilla]

Perhaps 03/21 will mark the end of the false hope being pedaled by those still being paid.

At the very least, communicate with the crews in an open and honest manner.

Innuendo simply doesnt cut it this late into the game.

MCD.

[wheels_down]

Your all being stringed along. Pipe Dream. Forget it.

[Anti Skid On]

In Australia at least, I find it highly doubtful the border will open in 2021. Even with a large number of people vaccinated, the political reality in Australia can’t even accept a small outbreak (less than 30). Just look at the drama of SA recently and the current NSW one.

Until it is definitively proven that the virus can’t be brought in to Australia, expect the government to drag its heels as long as possible.

The outbreak in Sydney shows the fragility of the system. Even the Trans Tasman bubble is placed at risk of starting with community transmission. The problem is a small outbreak, if badly managed, can become an out of control outbreak in very little time.

Here in NZ the policy is unlikely to change, as we do not have the ICU capacity to manage a big outbreak.

[Going Boeing]

The thing that stands out about the effect that COVID-19 has had on FUTURE International flying (after vaccination has extensive coverage) is that it has to be Point-to-Point to minimise the potential of infection. P2P requires a much larger number of smaller capacity, long range aircraft to achieve the frequency of flights that the sales staff require for a route to be viable.

When you look at the JQ International destinations then it stands out that the A321XLR is a much more suitable aircraft than the B787-8 which has too much capacity to achieve the required frequency (forget about HNL which isn’t a true LCC destination). The B787 may be brought back into service as a stopgap until deliveries of the A321LR/XLR’s can resume but their days are numbered, IMHO.

[Buster Hyman]

Was waiting for someone to mention the Cabin Crew. Pretty big limitation to train crews up, especially when they’re dropping like flies for Domestic work!🙄

[Iron Bar]

Good point. As far as I know, all of the OZ based international (787) Cabin Managers / crew on the old contract have been made redundant.

[Ragnor]

Good point. As far as I know, all of the OZ based international (787) Cabin Managers / crew on the old contract have been made redundant.

They didn't get made redundant! They took a voluntary redundancy JQ had to stop offering as to many were taking it up. There is a lot of qualified 78 on domestic fleet, enough to get a couple 78s flying domestically and if that is the case I'm sure JQ will get what ever is needed from the unions to allow them to give them the boot back to domestic when international starts up again.

[Iron Bar]

Check :ok:

[Slippery_Pete]

Jetstar 787s? Perhaps this...

Mainline 747 gone. Mainline A380s will never come back. QF will RIN those two fleets, and look to get rid of as many senior long haul drivers as possible. A real clean out.

Once that’s done, JQ 787s to mainline to bolster their international fleet, plus an eventual A350 order at dirt cheap post COVID prices to replace the A330.

JQ to go back to exclusively A320/321 fleet to compete with Rex and protect LCC market share.

That’s my guess, but who knows!

[Keg]

Jetstar 787s? Perhaps this...

Mainline 747 gone. Mainline A380s will never come back. QF will RIN those two fleets, and look to get rid of as many senior long haul drivers as possible. A real clean out.

In addition to the 238 who left the business in the last few weeks?

There are only 7 747 line Captains left. About 35 F/Os. The A380 has roughly 40 Captains and less than 80 F/Os.

If Qantas returns 6 A380s (and they will if there is the demand) they’re short of Captains on the fleet to the tune of roughly 25.

[Wingspar]

I think come the second half of 2021, the JQ 787’s will be working their proverbial off. They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?

[Buster Hyman]

JQ 787s to mainline to bolster their international fleet,
Expensive refit, no crew rest so short haul only.

[Ragnor]

I think come the second half of 2021, the JQ 787’s will be working their proverbial off. They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?

I couldn’t agree more!

[DirectAnywhere]

They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?

When was that forecast made? It might have been valid two days ago, I'd suggest it's nowhere near valid now given the events of the last couple of days.

[B772]

The JQ B787 fleet has been devalued. The low cost carrier Norwegian has just put 37 x B787 on the market. Including unsold whitetails there are approx. 100 B787's for sale.

[getaway]

The JQ B787 fleet has been devalued. The low cost carrier Norwegian has just put 37 x B787 on the market. Including unsold whitetails there are approx. 100 B787's for sale.
maybe the Qantas group should buy or lease some of these B787s. Should be very very cheap.

Would have thought the growth over next few years would mainly be in Jetstar long haul with recession that's going to be a monster & last years.

Why not Jetstar long haul to USA with a tech stop, somewhere ? Not HNL though as messy for pax going on furhter.

Doesn't mean it has to fly to LAX or SFO. Plenty of cheaper less crowded options like ONT or OAK or somewhere further east like LAS.

Air NZ has long flights AKL/USA mainland & YVR I think, going via HNL with separate crew to fly eg. HNL/LAX/HNL. Painful for pax having to get off at HNL, collect bags & get back on board. Maybe Americans might make exception or HNL/LAX would be a domestic flight & no 2nd customs at LAX etc.

[Ragnor]

JQ 78 would be a good fit for SY-LAS. I’d even be keen for that

[getaway]

JQ 78 would be a good fit for SY-LAS. I’d even be keen for that
where could tech stop be ? (seeing JQ would pack the seats in)

APW ?

NAN ?

If NAN, Qantas should "convince" FJ/Fiji govt somehow, to allow sales LAS/NAN without flying onto Australia.

[1A_Please]

maybe the Qantas group should buy or lease some of these B787s. Should be very very cheap.

Would have thought the growth over next few years would mainly be in Jetstar long haul with recession that's going to be a monster & last years.

Why not Jetstar long haul to USA with a tech stop, somewhere ? Not HNL though as messy for pax going on furhter.

Doesn't mean it has to fly to LAX or SFO. Plenty of cheaper less crowded options like ONT or OAK or somewhere further east like LAS.

Air NZ has long flights AKL/USA mainland & YVR I think, going via HNL with separate crew to fly eg. HNL/LAX/HNL. Painful for pax having to get off at HNL, collect bags & get back on board. Maybe Americans might make exception or HNL/LAX would be a domestic flight & no 2nd customs at LAX etc.

Apart from the fact that the Norwegian 787s are RR powered so not particularly attractive to QF whose 787s are all GE powered, QF does not added capacity. At the moment the fleet is basically entirely dormant and it is unlikely this will change much before Q4. When flights return, they have heaps of available capacity in the form of A332s for Asia-Pac which are not so busy as domestic has eased off as well as a fleet of 12 A380s that are ideal if and when the major long-haul trunk routes to LAX and LHR come back.

[getaway]

Apart from the fact that the Norwegian 787s are RR powered so not particularly attractive to QF whose 787s are all GE powered, QF does not added capacity. At the moment the fleet is basically entirely dormant and it is unlikely this will change much before Q4. When flights return, they have heaps of available capacity in the form of A332s for Asia-Pac which are not so busy as domestic has eased off as well as a fleet of 12 A380s that are ideal if and when the major long-haul trunk routes to LAX and LHR come back.
from what I gather the A380 model only works when full & not filled with loss leader seats. Guess it's all about fuel costs, but many airlines are retiring their A380s.

Many will want low fares, which LCCs like Jetstar can provide, or, they simply won't fly at all.

There's still going to be lots of discounting & loss leader fares, even with reduced capacity, while the recession runs it's course, just maybe not peak season.

Remember, many small business owners won't be flying anywhere for years.

[Transition Layer]

I’m not convinced LCC will be the saviour out of COVID. For the vast majority of the Australian public, this has been merely a blip on the radar of their earnings and savings. With their bank accounts overflowing and property prices holding up,I think they’ll be less inclined to travel on LCCs, at least in the short term. They’ve all had a bad experience with a last minute cancelled JQ flight and the lack of ground support that goes with it.

Obviously if a recession kicks in, all bets are off, but initially I think full cost will be popular for the leisure market, especially if uncertainty about borders still exists and the possibility of cancellations abounds.

[wheels_down]

Jetstar has frequency, network and monopoly on many markets that QF and VA do not (ie right across Queensland) that are popular with leisure pax so they should be right. They have much more point to point routes vs Virgin. I will suffer a loco in a exit seat vs running via another place just to sit on Virgin. Outside of cyclone season, Jetstar has half dozen A321 flights into Cairns from Sydney and Melbourne, each. Qantas and Virgin have one. They also have considerable point to point routes out of many Queensland leisure destinations that the others don’t.

Jetstar will get the Tiger traffic, a large chunk which was foreign tourists, when the world moves on. I don’t know where the Rex pax are coming from.

The market was pretty flat and has been for a while, I don’t think we will be seeing any growth, and I’m not sure what growth Rex is thinking about when they start taking about 40 odd machines that are in the fairytale they are planning.

[getaway]

I’m not convinced LCC will be the saviour out of COVID. For the vast majority of the Australian public, this has been merely a blip on the radar of their earnings and savings. With their bank accounts overflowing and property prices holding up,I think they’ll be less inclined to travel on LCCs, at least in the short term. They’ve all had a bad experience with a last minute cancelled JQ flight and the lack of ground support that goes with it.

Obviously if a recession kicks in, all bets are off, but initially I think full cost will be popular for the leisure market, especially if uncertainty about borders still exists and the possibility of cancellations abounds.
property is well & truly stuffed after overly generous welfare ends. Might take a few months. ANZ bank says June/July. Media will overhype it as usual & concentrate on all the mortgagee in possession auctions with no reserves.

Anyone who pays top dollar for any real estate now is crazy. Jetstar doesn't have a good name but either does Qantas.

[Chris2303]

Air NZ has long flights AKL/USA mainland & YVR I think, going via HNL with separate crew to fly eg. HNL/LAX/HNL. Painful for pax having to get off at HNL, collect bags & get back on board. Maybe Americans might make exception or HNL/LAX would be a domestic flight & no 2nd customs at LAX etc.

Simple Flying says pax have to stay on board so some deal must have been made with US CBP

https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-hawaii-stopover/

[Ragnor]

property is well & truly stuffed after overly generous welfare ends. Might take a few months. ANZ bank says June/July. Media will overhype it as usual & concentrate on all the mortgagee in possession auctions with no reserves.

Anyone who pays top dollar for any real estate now is crazy. Jetstar doesn't have a good name but either does Qantas.

Economist and the Bank have got everything wrong relating to this pandemic from the start, if borders are open ppl will go on a holiday, there is over 2b in additional house hold savings at the moment according to Joshy.

JQ and QF might have a bad name as you say but VA rex and all are no better they all cancel flights they are all delayed ppl complain it’s human nature.

[getaway]

Simple Flying says pax have to stay on board so some deal must have been made with US CBP

https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealand-hawaii-stopover/
that's great news. Hope it's ongoing FOREVER. Used to fly SYD/BNE/HNL/YVR a lot pre SEP11 & in those days, we were allowed off aircraft in HNL to sit for 90 mins in transit lounge, while refuel, but didn't have to enter USA & go thru all that BS.

I can see other airlines like QF, UA, DL, AA doing Australia/mainland USA instead of nonstop via HNL with same aircraft, at least initially, although gues that would mean HNL/LAX wouldn't be a domestic flight & all pax would have to go thru customs/immigration at LAX, SFO etc.

If HNL stop means staying on board, then maybe Jetstar could do same as NZ, just instead of from AKL from OZ ports. ie. BNE, SYD, MEL/HNL/LAX with change of crew at HNL & that crew flying HNL/LAX/HNL, esp from BNE with QF now only BNE/USA mainalnd nonstop with no VA.

[Anti Skid On]

I think come the second half of 2021, the JQ 787’s will be working their proverbial off. They’re even forecasting being ahead of their precovid domestic levels by March. Just imagine when International opens up?
Mate you're dreaming. There will be many more years before borders open. The virus continues to mutate and everyone will need an annual Covid vaccination for the latest strain. Looks at Brazil and South Africa, new, out of control versions.

[ANstar]

I’m not convinced LCC will be the saviour out of COVID. For the vast majority of the Australian public, this has been merely a blip on the radar of their earnings and savings. With their bank accounts overflowing and property prices holding up,I think they’ll be less inclined to travel on LCCs, at least in the short term. They’ve all had a bad experience with a last minute cancelled JQ flight and the lack of ground support that goes with it.

Obviously if a recession kicks in, all bets are off, but initially I think full cost will be popular for the leisure market, especially if uncertainty about borders still exists and the possibility of cancellations abounds.

You're assuming Qantas and Virgin haven't dont the same.,.. which they have. Jetstar are pretty quick to refund.. in my experience its been within a week. QF seem to take months and Virgin have refused refunds for cancelled flights.

[getaway]

Mate you're dreaming. There will be many more years before borders open. The virus continues to mutate and everyone will need an annual Covid vaccination for the latest strain. Looks at Brazil and South Africa, new, out of control versions.kiwis already get in without restriction, test or quarantine. Australians will be able to go to NZ as soon as public servants get off their butts. Currently other international borders open 18 March 2021, but that could change.

[ScepticalOptomist]

Mate you're dreaming. There will be many more years before borders open. The virus continues to mutate and everyone will need an annual Covid vaccination for the latest strain. Looks at Brazil and South Africa, new, out of control versions.

What nonsense. The “mutations” are relatively minor protein changes - the current crop of vaccines aren’t affected. For the love of goodness read past the headlines.